Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Sunday - July 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-2   WIN (1/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/2)-(1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (1/5/2)-(2/4/5)-(6/5/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-3   WIN (2/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/5)-(2/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/5)-(2/4/5)-(2/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (2/4/5)-(6/5/1)-(4/3/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-4   WIN (6/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/1)-(6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (6/5/1)-(4/3/5)-(2/3/4/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ARP-5   WIN (4/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/5)-(4/3/5)-(4/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (4/3/5)-(2/3/4/6)-(6/8/3/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-6   WIN (2/3/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/4/6)-(2/3/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/4/6)-(2/3/4/6)-(2/3/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/4/6)-(6/8/3/4)-(1/4/2/6/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
ARP-7   WIN (6/8/3/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/8/3/4)-(6/8/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/8/3/4)-(6/8/3/4)-(6/8/3/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-8   WIN (1/4/2/6/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/2/6/3)-(1/4/2/6/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/2/6/3)-(1/4/2/6/3)-(1/4/2/6/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-2   07/23/2023 2970ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($6.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AWESOME BID Jun25 Apr25 Mar25 Feb21 Jan19 (barraza ra)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 55% 0.80    
2  JUSTIN SPEIGHT Jul15 May27 May05 Apr01 Mar04 (hibdon mar)GONZALEZ V 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  A GEM IS A GEM Jul15 Jun17 May13 Apr29 Mar04 (wheeler travis)LULL E 124 3.50    
4  CREATIVE LETTERS Jul15 Jun03 May20 Apr29 Apr15 (ibanez alber)JOURNET JARRED 124 8.00    
5  SEEULATERGATOR Jul09 Apr16 Apr09 Nov30 Nov15 (long vaughn)LUARK T 124 4.50 17% 4.70    
6  LAUNCHED Jul02 Jun19 Mar19 Mar04 Feb18 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 12.00    
 
ARP-3   07/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($10.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAJOR TIMING Jun19         (parsons riley)WALES T 124 3.50    
  (by MAJOR BIG TIME out of PERFECT FINESSE by PERFECT MANDATE)
2  RUNNIN BUFFALO Jul02 Jun19 Apr21     (rushton temple)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 2.50 33% 2.00    
  (by ELMAZEED out of LANA'S LEGACY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
3  WALKIN TALKIN BOB Sep27 Sep19 Aug28 Aug14 Aug01 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 124 12.00    
  (by GRAND MINSTREL out of CAPTIVATING CATHY by FOREST WILDCAT)
4  HOLY MISSION         (hall monk)RAMEY CASH 115 6.00 24% 3.10    
  (by VICE LORD out of ON MY MISSION by NO STORMS)
5  SILENCE'S NATION Jul09 Jun19       (barraza s)RAMOS B 120 4.50 14% 6.20    
  (by TROJAN NATION out of CUPCAKE'S SURPRISE by EISHIN MASAMUNE (JPN))
 
ARP-4   07/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($6.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SWEET TATUM Jul02 Jun18 Mar25 Mar12 Feb25 (rushton stacy)HAAR NATHAN 124 15.00 14% 6.20    
2  MILLI STARR Jul02 May20 Apr30 Apr14 Mar31 (roberts m)RAMOS B 124 4.00    
3  AUNT IRENE Jul08 Jun18 May20 May14 Apr30 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 8.00    
4  RAGING LADY Jun24 Jun18 May02 Apr22 Apr03 (torres-ca)MEDINA ANGEL 124 2.50    
5  NEW YEARS LOVE Jul02 Jun18 Apr30 Apr14 Mar31 (jenkins l)WALES T 124 3.50 18% 4.50    
6  DOZO Jul02 Jun18 Jun04 May02 Apr08 (christian billy)LULL E 124 4.50 40% 1.50    
 
ARP-5   07/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($12.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRULY A MESS Jul03 Jun18 May06 Apr01 Mar13 (whitehouse wilton )LULL E 124 3.50    
2  PRINCESS JAYLEEN Jul08 Jun24 May01 Apr22 Mar27 (torres-ca)MEDINA ANGEL 120 15.00    
3  WHISTLING HOME Jun18 Apr17 Mar18 Aug08 Jul11 (story chad)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 4.50 31% 2.30    
4  COCKTAIL SLIPPERS Jun24 Apr24       (kenney dan)HAAR NATHAN 120 2.00 46% 1.20    
5  DREAMER GIRL May02 Apr04 Mar11 Feb16 Jan26 (barraza s)WALES T 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
ARP-6   07/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($6.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RANCHER Jul03 Jun18 Apr25 Apr11 Mar04 (esquibel mark)LULL E 124 6.00    
2  ARIMONY Jul15 Jun25 May01 Mar08 Feb20 (torres-casas j)WALES T 124 4.50 28% 2.60    
3  GOLD NOTE Jun25 Jun09 May28 May21 Apr23 (hibdon n)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 2.50 24% 3.20    
4  TOMBI Jul15 Jul03 Jun19 Mar31 Feb25 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 121 3.50 16% 5.30    
5  KICK IT Jul10 Jun25 Jun19 May07 Mar27 (lavanway dayson)TORRES J 124 12.00    
6  PODEROSO EQUS Jul10 Jul02 Apr22 Mar31 Mar18 (rushton stacy)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00 11% 7.70    
SCR  ONOMATOPOEIA May07 Apr14 Apr05 Mar07 Jan22 (williams )MEDINA ANGEL 124 10.00    
8  MASTERPIECE DAY Jul03 Jun18 May20 May06 Apr21 (muckey john)MARTIN A 124 20.00    
 
ARP-7   07/23/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GIMME SPACE Apr15 Apr07 Mar17 Mar03 Feb12 (childs g)RAMEY CASH 119 20.00    
2  PARABELLUM Jul10 Apr24 Apr10 Mar27 Mar07 (williams )MEDINA ANGEL 124 12.00    
3  KEENEYE GEORGE Jun24 Apr24 Apr03 Mar25 Feb28 (barraza s)RAMOS B 124 4.50 17% 5.00    
4  NORTHRNDANCRSGHOST Jul09 Jun25 Jun17 May02 Mar12 (perkinson cc)LUARK T 124 15.00 7% 13.70    
5  OH SNAP Jul03 Jun24 May19 May06 Apr28 (lemburg mark)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00    
6  PRINCE OTTO Jul03 Feb06 Jan24 Jan10 Sep06 (esquibel mark)LULL E 124 3.50 30% 2.30    
7  CLAIMJUMPER Jul10 Jun24 Sep20 Sep04 Aug29 (mcdonald willi)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 8.00    
8  MY PAL Jul02 Dec19 Nov23 Sep19 Sep04 (martinez a)WALES T 121 2.50 19% 4.20    
 
ARP-8   07/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($8K) Purse ($6K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COWGIRLLOVER Jul09 Jun17 May19 Apr19 Mar17 (long vaughn)RAMOS B 120 2.50 55% 0.80    
2  ATHENIAN PRINCESS Jul08 Jun17 Jun04 May29 Sep12 (hibdon n)LUARK T 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  PIZZA GIRL May14 Apr21 Mar25 Feb25 Feb11 (burns dale)GONZALEZ V 117 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  MOBILEAGILEHOSTILE Jul08 Jun25 Jun17 May21 May13 (lavanway dayso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 2.50 12% 7.40    
5  ITHOUGHTIKNEW Jul08 Jun17 Mar19 Mar05 Feb18 (childs russe)MARTIN A 124 20.00    
6  WHEREDIDITGO Jun25 Mar20 Mar12 Jan21   (torres-casas ale)RAMEY CASH 115 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  DANGERELLA Jul09 Jun17 Apr29     (whitehouse wilton )LULL E 124 4.50    
8  KINSLEYS SWEET PEA Jul08 Jun25 Jun04 Oct13 Sep19 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 8.00    
9  SPARKLE IN THE SKY Jul08 Jun25 May13     (wheeler travis)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00    
10  BIG CREEK FIRE Jul09         (barraza raf)MORALES ALLYSSA 120 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.