Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 16, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIME FOR CUPID Aug27 Aug06       (asmussen)SANTANA JR 121 2.50 20% 3.90    
2  LOVE OF MY LIFE Jul12 Jun23 May05 Mar09 Feb16 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00    
3  HONEYCOMB Aug12 Jun22 Apr27 Jan02   (arnold r)GRAHAM J 121 3.50 24% 3.20    
4  LANDED GENTRY Jul17 Jun18       (medina rob)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 20.00    
5  CAMI CAT Jul30 Jun19 Jun10 May20   (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 121 12.00 ★    
6  DOOZY BATZ Jun09 Apr27       (ward wesley )ZAYAS J 121 1.40 35% 1.80    
7  STORM HAVEN         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 ★    
8  DOGWOODSMILLIEJANE Aug27         (taylor brent)MILLER CHASE 121 20.00    
 
CD-2   09/16/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRONT STREET Aug21 Aug03 Jun23 Apr15 Mar19 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 121 3.00    
2  MAKESCENTSTOUS Aug15 Jun25 Mar21     (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 121 12.00 11% 7.90    
3  MY MY MUNNY Aug19 Jul31 Jul17 Jul03 Jun17 (stuart sh)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00 ★    
4  HEADLAND Apr30 Apr10 Mar11 Jan02   (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.00 22% 3.50    
5  STERLING MISS Aug07 Jul02 May29 Apr30 Mar12 (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 121 2.00 27% 2.70    
6  TIPSY GAL Jun29 May30       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 ★    
 
CD-3   09/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROVE RIGHT Aug26 Aug19 Jul16 Jun26 Jun08 (cha)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 8.00    
2  JUDO Aug05         (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 2.00 33% 2.10    
3  FROSTED DEPARTURE Aug14 Jul22 Jul02     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.50 ★    
4  COUNTERSPY Aug21 Jul22       (casse mark)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00 9% 10.70    
5  X Y POINT Jul30         (joseph saffi)ZAYAS J 120 2.50 35% 1.90    
6  I'M WIDE AWAKE Aug26 Jul16 Jun24     (courville)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
SCR  MR. GORDY Jul04 May05 Apr13     (cano munoz)RIQUELME J 122 8.00 ★    
 
CD-4   09/16/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOMITIA LUCILLA Aug06 Jul04 Jun08     (brisset )SANTANA JR 120 4.00 ★    
2  SWEET TRUFFLES Aug12 Jul15 Jul03 Jun10 May05 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00 11% 8.20    
3  LANTERN'S CANDY Aug24 Jul23 Jul03 Jun10 May28 (glyshaw t)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.50 17% 5.00    
4  LIZNOW         (lovell miche)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 10.00 9% 9.90    
5  COASTAL CHARM Jul29 Apr15       (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 4.00    
6  FROSTED DIAMOND Jul03 Jun10 May22 Apr23 Feb16 (sims a)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 3.00 34% 1.90    
7  QUINZEL Mar12         (puhich mike)PETERSON FERRIN 120 12.00    
8  MCMANSION Jul29 Jul01 Jun19 May19 Mar20 (hamilton )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 10.00    
 
CD-5   09/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WADSWORTH Aug06         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00    
1A  FACE VALUE Aug06         (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 4.00    
2  RECKER POINT Aug28         (lukas way)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 3.00 31% 2.20    
3  SOLOMON VANDY Aug27 Jul30       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 4.50 23% 3.30    
4  B MINOR Sep03         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 ★    
5  KICKSANDGIGGLES Aug06         (hiles a)GRAHAM J 119 15.00 ★    
6  PROSECUTION         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 10.00    
7  CYCLONE MISCHIEF         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00    
8  WELAKA Aug10         (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00 22% 3.50    
9  IDRATHERBEBLESSED         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
10  PRESIDER Aug28         (devaux cherie)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00    
 
CD-6   09/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PLEMMONSTON Aug23 Jun22 May30 May22 Feb28 (leonard g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00    
2  VASILEVSKIY (IRE) Apr30 Feb10 Jan21     (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.00 22% 3.50    
3  ICON Aug21 Jul24 Jun23     (diodoro )SANTANA JR 121 2.00 28% 2.50    
4  DROP ANCHOR Aug23 Jul21 Jun11 May14 Apr20 (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 121 4.50    
5  SPEED BOAT Aug31 Aug11 Jul20 Jul07 Jun11 (hugo l)MORALES EDGAR 121 12.00 14% 6.20    
6  MR. HALFTIME Jul03 May23 May01 Mar23 Feb23 (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
SCR  HAY SPORT Aug16 Jul08       (thompson michael)DIAZ RENE 116 30.00    
SCR  FUTURO Aug09 Jul13 Jul03     (porter michael)COURT K 121 30.00    
9  SOVIET         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 13% 6.90    
10  LAKE TAHOE Aug08 Jul09 May26 May01 Apr10 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 118 4.50 ★    
11  BRONZE BEAST Jun11 May22 Mar25 Mar10 Feb16 (rouck l)RIQUELME J 121 30.00    
 
CD-7   09/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY SQUARED Aug06 Jul15 Jun17     (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00    
2  PERFECT ROSE Sep08 Aug13 Aug07 Jul31   (vasquez german)ELLIOTT JANE 119 50.00    
3  TAXED         (shirer matt)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00    
4  RUM RUNNER READY Aug19 Jul15 Jun10     (mor)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 12.00    
5  MAGICAL LUTE Jul04         (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 47% 1.10    
6  BOLTED Jul23         (divito james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00 6% 17.10    
7  CALLIE'S PASSION Jul20         (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
8  ZEITLOS Aug13         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
9  BATUCADA         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.50 24% 3.10    
10  HUNTLEIGH         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00    
11  MOON MAGIC CHRISSY Aug06 Jul04 May20 Apr29   (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 5.00 ★    
12  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF Sep03 Jul29 Jul04 Jun17 Jun03 (leonard geo)HERRFORTH ERICA 109 30.00    
SCR  MALAWNIA Aug13 Jul01       (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 119 20.00 ★    
SCR  ADIVA Aug13         (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
SCR  DAGMAR Jul31         (catalano m)DIAZ RENE 114 20.00    
SCR  TINY TEMPER         (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00    
 
CD-8   09/16/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RECODED Aug14 Aug07 Jul02 May29 May03 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 123 5.00 ★    
2  LIL KINGS PRINCESS Apr01 Mar06 Jan14     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 10.00 ★    
3  BE LIKE WATER Aug08 Jul02 Jun02 Apr13 Mar13 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 123 15.00    
4  LOVEMESOMEME Aug13 Jun29 May29     (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 121 1.60 40% 1.50    
5  LIBERTY M D Aug07 Jun11 May14 Apr15 Mar03 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 121 3.00 23% 3.30    
6  WILL'S SECRET Jul03 Jun12       (lukas wayne)COURT K 121 2.50 10% 8.80    
7  PYRAMID PRINCESS Sep01 Aug07 Mar05 Feb19 Jan28 (stuart sh)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00    
 
CD-9   09/16/2022 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEQUILAS RANGER Aug25 Jul21 Jul01 Jun12 Apr29 (jones l)BEJARANO R 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
2  SUPER CONSTITUTION Aug20 Aug02 Jul01 May06 Apr16 (londono genev)GARCIA MARTIN 122 20.00    
3  WE ALL SEE IT Aug14 Jul04 Jun04 Apr16 Mar19 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
4  ZOOMER Aug06 Jul17 May22 May07 Mar26 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50 57% 0.70    
5  BROKEN RIB Aug04 Mar19 Feb17     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
6  DIGITAL Aug13 Jun22 May06 Mar18 Jan28 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 122 3.50 6% 14.60    
7  BRIEFCASE BULLY Jul24 Jun18 May15     (devaux cherie)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 8.00 6% 16.20    
8  DREAMER'S DISEASE Aug07         (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 122 12.00    
9  BUSINESS MODEL Aug13 Jul22       (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 124 5.00    
10  MEISTER Aug13 Jul22 May30 Apr16 Feb12 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 124 4.00 8% 12.10    
11  SIMOVITCH Aug20 Feb19 Jan22     (oliver vic)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
 
CD-10   09/16/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SONADOR Sep05 Jul30 Jun22 May19 May04 (hern)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 10.00    
2  ZMUDA Jul09 Jun24 May30 May13 Apr01 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  GREEN BANANAS         (manley ste)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00    
4  MORE ROMANCE Aug03 Jul14 May13     (scherer ma)MICHEL MICKAELLE 121 15.00    
5  ZING Aug06 Jul01 Jun11 May09   (catalano wayn)GILLIGAN JACK 118 4.00 5% 19.00    
6  DALLAS VOLUNTEER May21 Mar16 Feb18 Jan20   (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
7  GUAJIRA Jul31 Jan07       (amoss m)DIAZ RENE 113 15.00    
8  BELIEVING (IRE) Jul29 Jun17 Jun02 May26 Apr16 (shorter aaron)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 8.00    
9  FOREVER HOME Aug29 Jun09 May14 Apr23 Feb23 (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 10.00    
10  JUMAKAN BOURBON Aug24 Aug03 Jul15 Jun18 May29 (minnock g)BEJARANO R 118 5.00 53% 0.90    
11  MRS. NUSHI Sep08 Jul22 Jun29 Jun09 May25 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
12  MONOCACY Aug06 Jul17 Jun17 May27 May05 (king l)MILLER CHASE 118 15.00    
SCR  GRAN CHEMIN Apr02         (cline robe)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 15% 5.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.