Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Monday - May 26, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/5)-(2/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/5)-(2/6/5)-(2/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/6/5)-(1/8/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/5)-(1/8/3/5)-(5/3/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (1/8/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/8/3/5)-(1/8/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/8/3/5)-(1/8/3/5)-(1/8/3/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/8/3/5)-(5/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/8/3/5)-(5/3/1)-(4/5/7/3/12) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/1)-(5/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/1)-(5/3/1)-(5/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/1)-(4/5/7/3/12) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/3/1)-(4/5/7/3/12)-(7/2/8/4/5) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/5/7/3/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/5/7/3/12)-(4/5/7/3/12/6) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (4/5/7/3/12)-(4/5/7/3/12/6)-(4/5/7/3/12/6) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (4/5/7/3/12)-(7/2/8/4/5) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/5/7/3/12)-(7/2/8/4/5)-(8/3/5/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-5   WIN (7/2/8/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/2/8/4/5)-(7/2/8/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/2/8/4/5)-(7/2/8/4/5)-(7/2/8/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/2/8/4/5)-(8/3/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/2/8/4/5)-(8/3/5/6)-(4/2/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/3/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/3/5/6)-(8/3/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/3/5/6)-(8/3/5/6)-(8/3/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/3/5/6)-(4/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/3/5/6)-(4/2/3)-(7/9/1/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/3)-(4/2/5/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/3)-(4/2/5/3/9)-(4/2/5/3/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/2/3)-(7/9/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/3)-(7/9/1/8)-(10/8/1/3/14) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-8   WIN (7/9/1/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/9/1/8)-(7/9/1/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/9/1/8)-(7/9/1/8)-(7/9/1/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/9/1/8)-(10/8/1/3/14) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (10/8/1/3/14) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/8/1/3/14)-(10/8/1/3/14) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/8/1/3/14)-(10/8/1/3/14)-(10/8/1/3/14) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/26/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LASERJET May10 Apr18 Mar19 Mar08 Feb13 (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 118 5.00    
2  PSYCHEDELIC Mar20 Mar08 Feb15 Jan29 Dec27 (danner kelse)MONCADA IRVING 113 4.00 41% 1.40    
3  LADY MERCEDES May01 Apr12 Mar30 Jan31 Jan17 (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 115 4.50    
4  SUNNY ISLE BEACH Apr18 Mar14 Jul27 Jun09 Apr30 (shirer a)CEDILLO ABEL 118 2.00    
5  CORA'S LEGACY May15 Apr04 Mar06 Feb13 Jan17 (wilson shane)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  MIDNIGHT TANGO May13 Apr22 Dec06 Nov08 Jul27 (pitts helen)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 30% 2.30    
 
CD-2   05/26/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PERSONAL JET May16 Apr19 Mar29 Feb08 Jan18 (pomier ch)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 36% 1.80    
2  BO BO DOUGH May10 Apr26       (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 113 6.00    
3  SILVER SCREEN         (o'dwyer jer)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 10.00 16% 5.40    
4  PYROMANIA May17 May08 Apr17 Jul18   (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 10.00    
5  HIGH FIVE SY Apr29 Mar28 Feb05 Jan03 Dec12 (wismer s)CEDILLO ABEL 125 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  BELIEVE IN DREAMS May01 Sep12 Aug05     (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
7  PRIVATE RESERVE Apr13         (cox h)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50    
8  PROMISSIONE Apr29 Apr06 Mar12 Feb14 Jan05 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.50 17% 4.70    
 
CD-3   05/26/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARKET STREET May01 Mar16 Feb15 Jan18 Dec13 (shorter a)BEALMEAR C 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  EXPLOSIVELY Apr30 Mar27 Mar01 Feb06 Jan24 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 123 15.00    
3  ZAMBEZI Apr25 Mar29 Apr21 Mar14 Feb23 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 2.50 23% 3.30    
SCR  BEBEDOURO May01 Apr09 Feb15 Jan26 Nov27 (tomlinson mich)ORTIZ L 123 8.00    
5  EGLISE Apr26 Mar29 Feb23 Jan23 Dec01 (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 123 1.80 33% 2.00    
SCR  CLOUD WITHOUT REIN Apr19 Mar14 Feb07 Oct13 Sep26 (compton greg)CEDILLO ABEL 123 12.00    
7  LUDWIG May01 Mar08 Feb22 Jun30 May27 (bauer phili)ALVARADO JUNIOR 123 3.00    
SCR  CASCADE CRUISER May17 Jan11 Dec07 Aug24 Jul06 (rice linda)HERNANDEZ J 123 15.00    
 
CD-4   05/26/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ASTAR         (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 118 10.00    
  (by SEMORAN out of MOONCHASER by STAR DE NASKRA)
2  BANDED HUMOR May03         (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of BANDED by HOSTAGE)
3  WAR AND MAJESTY Dec01 Oct04 Sep07 Aug24   (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of JULIA TUTTLE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  MOBSTER Mar23 Aug24 Jun21 May27 Jan21 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 125 4.00 60% 0.70    
  (by UNCLE MO out of MEADOW BREEZE by MEADOWLAKE)
5  FATEFUL LIGHTNING Apr08 Mar02       (cox brad )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.00 15% 5.90    
  (by TAPIT out of GAMBLE'S GHOST by GHOSTZAPPER)
6  ESMARK Apr13 Aug31       (oliver vict)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 10.00 ★    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of NEVERTHESAME by SCAT DADDY)
7  GOT STRIPES         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WITHOUT PAROLE out of DON'T CRY FOR ME by SIYAH KALEM)
8  NOMOLIMBO Apr13         (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 118 20.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of PRETTY ZIPPY by CITY ZIP)
9  KEEN TALENT Apr08 Mar15       (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
  (by KEEN ICE out of NATIVE TALENT by A.P. INDY)
10  AMBITION Mar28 Mar07 Feb02 Dec04 Nov03 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 125 12.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of INSPIRED by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
SCR  SARDIS Apr25 Mar23 Jan24 Jan01 Dec13 (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 125 4.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ENDLESS CHAT by BERNARDINI)
12  ZAP D'ETAT Dec06 Nov09 Oct12 Sep19 Aug19 (house gary)GRAHAM J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TOM'S D'ETAT out of SHOVALLA by GHOSTZAPPER)
13  WESTERN RUN (IRE) Apr19 Mar07 Jan08 Oct18 Jun30 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 125 8.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of RUN OF THE RIVER by TAPIT)
SCR  DEMETRIUS May02 Dec21 Nov24 Oct24 May10 (frazier matt)MONCADA IRVING 120 15.00    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of ACADEMIC BREAK by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  MIGHTY MIKE May02 Apr13 Mar22     (kelley james)MONCADA IRVING 113 20.00    
  (by YOSHIDA out of PICKAWAY by PIVOTAL)
SCR  MATH TUTOR May08 Feb22 Jan18 Nov29 Nov09 (antonucci j)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 30.00    
  (by ALGORITHMS out of COMARE by STREET BOSS)
 
CD-5   05/26/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROYALEWITHCHEESE Sep15         (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
2  MUSCLE MOMMY         (pittman )RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00 21% 3.80    
3  MELLY'S BIRKIN May01 Mar15 Oct06 Aug25   (cunningham s )MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50    
4  JEANIE'S FAITH         (gowan william)ROCCO S 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  VIOLENCES OHR Apr16 Mar03       (sweezey ke)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  CRACKLE (GB) May11         (holsapple hutch)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
7  MINK STOLE May11 Apr11 Mar21 Feb21 Jan17 (ortiz ale)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 2.50 29% 2.40    
8  HOPE RESTORED Mar23         (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 21% 3.80    
9  MISS MONROE COUNTY Apr16 Mar01 Feb05 Jul11   (lovell mich)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 3.50    
 
CD-6   05/26/2025 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAGUEL Apr29 Feb01 Jan04 Jul06 Jun07 (walsh brendan )ORTIZ L 126 3.00    
2  FULL ARMOR Apr29 Mar07 Sep12 Aug03 Jun20 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 124 8.00    
3  COPPER MISSILE Apr17 Mar29 Feb15 Jan26 Dec19 (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 124 3.50 27% 2.70    
4  LURED AWAY Apr09 Mar02 Feb14 Jan11 Dec15 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
5  THE THUNDERER Apr13 Mar08 Feb07 Jan05 Dec01 (ortiz al)VELAZQUEZ R 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  GOOGOL JOKE May01 Jan19 Dec14 Oct10 Mar02 (medina robert)BEJARANO R 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  UNSTABLE PRINCE May03 Apr13 Mar08 Feb17 Jan19 (shirer matt )GEROUX FLORENT 124 4.50    
8  SWEETALKINGBOURBON Apr10 Feb15 Jan16 Feb17 Jan20 (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 124 4.00 45% 1.20    
 
CD-7   05/26/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHE'S ALL CHARM Apr11 Feb21 Jan01 Nov17 Oct11 (harty eoin)CORRALES GERARDO 116 8.00    
2  TAKEMETOTHEBEACH May02 Mar22 Feb14 Jan01 Sep09 (cowans willia)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  SUMMERINTAHOE Oct30 Sep17 Aug26 Aug01 Jun01 (ewing mic)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  VIVE VEUVE Apr18 Mar15 Dec14 Nov01 Sep07 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 71% 0.40    
5  MO FOX GIVIN Apr25 Mar15 Jan25 Oct12 Sep11 (casse mark)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 ★    
6  VINOS ANGEL Apr26 Mar26 Mar01 Feb06 Jan23 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 122 20.00    
7  KRISPY RICE Mar22 Feb28 Jan29 Dec05 Oct18 (walsh ryan )GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 30.00    
8  STREETWHEREYOULIVE Apr18 Mar12 Feb06 Jan16 Dec11 (sims a)CURTIS BEN 122 20.00    
9  PHAROAH'S WINE Apr25 Mar15 Nov29 Oct25 Sep07 (romans dale)LANERIE J 122 6.00 ★    
SCR  SECRET STATEMENT May03 Jul22 Jun09 May19 May04 (baker james)MACHADO LUAN 122 30.00    
SCR  STANDOUTSENSATION Apr27 Mar15 Feb15 Jan17 Dec20 (amoss m)BEJARANO R 122 5.00    
12  STELLAR LILY Apr12 Mar23 Feb24 Feb02 Dec14 (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 122 30.00    
SCR  WINDY BAY Oct26 Sep19 Aug19 Jun22 Jun05 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 30.00    
SCR  MERCY WARREN Mar28 Jan19 Nov27 Nov08 Sep15 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 20.00    
 
CD-8   05/26/2025 3960ft DIRT RC12 FAST Winning Colors Purse ($250K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRIGHTWORK Oct05 Aug31 Nov03 Oct06 Sep03 (ortiz al)VELAZQUEZ R 118 8.00 19% 4.30    
  (by OUTWORK out of CLARENDON FANCY by MALIBU MOON)
2  INTO CHAMPAGNE Apr13 Mar08 May03 Mar30 Mar02 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of BEDFORD LAND by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
3  BENEDETTA May03 Mar29 Feb23 Feb01 Nov25 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 20.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of TESSIE FLIP by GRAND SLAM)
SCR  EASY RED Apr13 Feb22 Jan02 Nov27 Jan25 (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 118 20.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of BLESSINGS COUNT by PULPIT)
SCR  HARBOR SPRINGS Apr26 Feb22 Nov24 Oct16 Sep15 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of NORTHERN MICHIGAN by BROKEN VOW)
6  MISS ARLINGTON Feb23 Jan03 Dec14 Nov25 Nov10 (williamson bri)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00    
  (by MARK VALESKI out of LUVNOTIONUMBERNINE by NOTIONAL)
7  HOPE ROAD May03 Feb01 Dec26 Nov02 Aug31 (baffert bob)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.40 33% 2.10    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of MARLEY'S FREEDOM by BLAME)
8  MINK'S PALACE Apr26 Dec22 Oct19 Sep15 Aug11 (kenneally eddi)ORTIZ L 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of SCATTERING MINK by SCAT DADDY)
9  TWO SHARP Nov23 Oct12 Aug31 Aug02 Jun29 (bauer phili)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 1.60 26% 2.80    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of DOUBLE SHARP by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
CD-9   05/26/2025 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3 ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEVELOPMENT FEE May16 Apr08 Feb15     (rice linda)CURTIS BEN 120 4.50 5% 19.00    
2  REVERSE MERGER May09 Feb20 Dec29 Sep11 Aug19 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 120 6.00    
3  RACING DRIVER May03 Mar29 Feb28 Jan11 Dec14 (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  CONQUERING CAT May09 Apr12 Mar06 Feb01 Jun30 (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
5  STRATEGIC FORCE Apr23 Feb13 Dec21     (walsh brend)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 10.00    
SCR  TANGO MIKE MIKE May01 Feb15 Feb01 Jan17 Dec07 (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 120 20.00    
7  COALMOON Mar22 Feb14 Jan24 Nov20 Oct27 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 120 10.00    
8  BACKTRACK Apr17 Mar27       (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 120 3.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  SPIRIT RAGS Mar06 Feb22 Feb01 Jan18 Dec13 (salas marceli)GARCIA MARTIN 120 30.00    
10  MAGNUM FORCE (IRE) Apr06 Mar18 Feb16 Nov30 Nov01 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 6.00 44% 1.30    
11  BRERETON'S BAYTOWN May10 Mar29 Feb23 Feb01 Jan25 (mcentee p)BEALMEAR C 115 6.00    
12  COVERT LAW Apr06 Mar12 Feb07 Jan18 Dec07 (ortiz al)VELAZQUEZ R 120 12.00    
SCR  GIFT CERTIFICATE Apr30 Mar14 Nov30 Nov13 Oct23 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 30.00    
14  FEVER NIGHT May17 Apr19 Mar29 Feb23 Jan25 (rice linda)HERNANDEZ J 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.