Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Wednesday - April 09, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (8/1/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/3/9)-(8/1/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/3/9)-(8/1/3/9)-(8/1/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/3/9)-(4/5/11/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/1/3/9)-(4/5/11/1)-(7/1/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-2   WIN (4/5/11/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/11/1)-(4/5/11/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/11/1)-(4/5/11/1)-(4/5/11/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/11/1)-(7/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/11/1)-(7/1/9)-(2/5/3/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
KEE-3   WIN (7/1/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/1/9)-(7/1/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/1/9)-(7/1/9)-(7/1/9) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/1/9)-(2/5/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/1/9)-(2/5/3/9)-(8/11/4/2/10) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-4   WIN (2/5/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/3/9)-(2/5/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/3/9)-(2/5/3/9)-(2/5/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/3/9)-(8/11/4/2/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/5/3/9)-(8/11/4/2/10)-(4/1/7/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-5   WIN (8/11/4/2/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/11/4/2/10)-(8/11/4/2/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/11/4/2/10)-(8/11/4/2/10)-(8/11/4/2/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/11/4/2/10)-(4/1/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/11/4/2/10)-(4/1/7/6)-(6/14/10/9/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-6   WIN (4/1/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/7/6)-(4/1/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/7/6)-(4/1/7/6)-(4/1/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1/7/6)-(6/14/10/9/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/1/7/6)-(6/14/10/9/7)-(5/10/2/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
KEE-7   WIN (6/14/10/9/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/14/10/9/7)-(6/14/10/9/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/14/10/9/7)-(6/14/10/9/7)-(6/14/10/9/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/14/10/9/7)-(5/10/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
KEE-8   WIN (5/10/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/10/2/6)-(5/10/13/2/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/09/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($77K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VANISHED Feb12 Jan17 Oct23 Sep14 Dec14 (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 125 15.00 25% 3.00    
2  FEASIBLE Mar01         (antonucci )HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
3  VICTORIOUS NYQUIST Oct10 Aug19 Jul29 Jun20 Sep09 (caramori cai)TORRES A 125 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  ROCKAWAY REEF Mar21 Feb21 Feb05 Jul27 Jul04 (miller kenny)ROMAN A 125 6.00    
5  ASHES AND DIAMONDS Sep01         (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 4.00    
SCR  STAGE PRESENCE Aug31 Jun28 May25     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 125 2.50    
7  TAKETHESILVER Mar07 Dec13 Sep14 Aug18   (danner do)CORREA L 125 20.00    
8  VINTAGE RING         (correas ignac)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 51% 1.00    
9  MIDNIGHT MUSE Mar12 Feb13 Feb01     (gutierrez fa)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-2   04/09/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($57K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOMETOWN HERO Mar07 Feb27 Feb07 Jan24 Dec18 (moreno tit)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  MOLTO VIVACE Dec07 Nov20 Jun28 May27 Apr05 (foster eric)MONCADA IRVING 113 6.00    
3  SHAKIN LOOSE Mar21 Feb28 Feb07 Jan03 Dec07 (molloy thomas)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
4  NIGHT TIME Feb23 Jan03 Dec20 Oct13 Apr06 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 1.20 67% 0.50    
5  KANT BEAT THE ROCK Mar03 Jan17 Jan05 Nov29 Nov14 (diodoro robert)ORTIZ L 118 8.00 9% 9.60    
6  LILTONYTWOPHONES Mar06 Feb07 Jan29 Dec20 Dec04 (moreno tito)SERPA ANGEL 118 20.00    
SCR  AFTERNOON HEAT Mar13 Feb27 Feb07 Dec22 Dec07 (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 10.00    
SCR  IMPROBABLE STORY Mar13 Feb07 Jan24 Dec20 Dec05 (king barr)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
SCR  BUSINESS MODEL Mar22 Nov20 Nov02 Oct05 Sep21 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50    
10  OLAZABAL Mar20 Sep24 Aug29 Jul19 Jun26 (sells rachel)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
11  FORGIVING SPIRIT Feb27 Jan29 Dec08 Nov29 Oct27 (estvanko r)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-3   04/09/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($110K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHACHING CHACHING Feb23         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 16% 5.40    
  (by MUNNINGS out of LUCY GOOSEY by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  ZAPPING STRIKE Nov23 Nov04 Oct14 Sep23 Jul16 (labra rogelio)SANJUR SANTO 125 8.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of STRIKING BEAUTY by CURLIN)
3  SHALLUS Mar05 Nov22 Nov13 Oct14 Sep18 (labra rogeli)BURGOS ALBERTO 125 30.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of STRIKE FREE by CONCERN)
SCR  DAY MONEY DEEGAN         (puhich mike)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
  (by IMPROBABLE out of I BET TONI KNOWS by SUNRIVER)
SCR  MILITARY CRUISER May04         (vaccarezza ni)ORTIZ JR 125 10.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of VASILISA by SKIPSHOT)
6  HE'S ELUSIVE Jun27 Jun05 Jan26 Dec08   (jackson chr)MIRANDA ROGELIO 125 30.00    
  (by ELUSIVE HOUR out of HEART OF CHARLEI by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
7  DR. PARK Jan25         (eurton peter)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 1.20 59% 0.70    
  (by UNCLE MO out of QUEEN CAROLINE by BLAME)
8  DON CORLEONE Mar01 Feb02 Apr19 Feb19 Jan21 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 125 3.50    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of BROAD SPECTRUM by BROAD BRUSH)
9  KNICKS GATE         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 125 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of GIBBET by WAR FRONT)
 
KEE-4   04/09/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($53K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MUSTIQUE Mar09 Feb20 Jan25     (forster gr)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
2  HERE'SYOURTROUBLE Mar14 Jan09 Nov21 Aug26   (walsh brendan )PRAT FLAVIEN 126 1.50 40% 1.50    
3  SR. MARY MARGARET Mar07 Jan24       (newton troy)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 12% 7.50    
SCR  DON'T BE SALTY Mar03         (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 118 15.00    
5  ROCK HARBOR Mar16 Feb20 Dec28 May03   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 126 4.50 16% 5.10    
6  RANCH LIFE Mar28 Mar07 Feb22 Jan31 Jan04 (douaihy michel)SERPA ANGEL 118 30.00    
SCR  KAZILLION Mar16 Feb21 Jan25 Mar10 Feb18 (brinkman brett)CURTIS BEN 126 20.00    
8  RAINBOW GLOW Mar14 Jan17 Oct30     (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 126 6.00    
9  SWEET STAR Feb28 Jan31 Jan16 Jan02 Dec18 (bahena ismae)CALLEJA ANDRES 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  A KISS BECAUSE Mar07         (brafford)RODRIGUEZ A 126 30.00    
SCR  ANTHONY'S SPICE Mar08 Feb14 Jan23 Aug08   (moge)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 30.00    
12  HOME FIRST Feb28 Jul15       (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
SCR  MISS WORLD PEACE Feb14 Jan05 Dec03     (ward dan)ORTIZ L 126 4.00    
 
KEE-5   04/09/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($130K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HILARIOUS AFFAIR Mar22 Jan29 Dec20 Nov16 Oct25 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
2  COAST ALONG Oct17 Aug23 Jul21 Jun21 May19 (mcgaughey clau)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50 9% 10.00    
3  UNWORKABLE Mar13 Feb26 Feb01 Jan23 Dec28 (acevedo is)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
4  LET IT RIDE Jul26 May10 Mar02 Jan20 Nov25 (weaver george)VELAZQUEZ R 118 6.00 15% 5.50    
5  CHISELER Mar26 Feb12 Jan17 Oct18 Sep07 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 12.00    
6  BOLTAGE Feb01 Dec07 Nov22 Oct09 Feb17 (stidham michael)CURTIS BEN 118 8.00    
7  CURLY LARRY AND MO May17 Nov10 Sep09 Aug18 Jun10 (caramori c)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
8  URBAN LEGEND Feb28 Nov15 Oct11 Sep01 Jul06 (d'angelo jose)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50 26% 2.90    
SCR  DEMOLITION DUKE Feb15 Jan18 Dec14 Nov08 Sep11 (walsh brendan )ORTIZ L 118 2.50    
10  ALL JOKES ASIDE Mar13 Mar05 Feb01 Dec27 Dec19 (meah anna)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 118 20.00 5% 17.40    
11  RUN CURTIS RUN Nov10 Oct05 Sep01 Jul26 Jul06 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 23% 3.30    
 
KEE-6   04/09/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROTEGE Feb22 Jan19 Nov27 Oct31 Sep18 (wilensky sam)ORTIZ JR 124 3.50 23% 3.40    
2  SHIPMAN Mar15 Feb26 Jan26 Dec20 Nov25 (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
3  BEBEDOURO Feb15 Jan26 Nov27 Nov07 Sep22 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 124 12.00    
4  TIGER'S LEGACY Feb23 Jan18 Dec20 Aug03 Jul07 (davis christop)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 1.20 49% 1.00    
5  CHRYSO ALOGO Jan17 Dec18 Nov21 Oct30 Oct09 (foster eric)RAMOS D 124 20.00    
6  SIR PISTOLERO Feb14 Jan17 Dec07 Oct10 Sep26 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  MUSICAL MAESTRO Feb26 Jan04 Dec13 Sep27 Jul21 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 124 10.00 7% 13.80    
8  PARTYVICIOUS Mar14 Feb22 Feb06 Dec22 Nov22 (gonzalez re)GUTIERREZ MARIO 124 20.00    
SCR  NORWICH Feb23 Feb01 Jan03 Oct24 Aug31 (mcgee paul)CANNON DECLAN 124 6.00    
 
KEE-7   04/09/2025 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($120K) 3 ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPECIAL CALIBER Feb22 Jan18 Dec19 Nov29   (douaihy michel)SERPA ANGEL 118 30.00    
SCR  BRACKET BUSTER Oct27 Oct09 Sep12 Aug07   (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 20.00    
SCR  WITHOUT CAUTION Mar01 Nov08 Sep28 Aug29 Jul20 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 118 20.00    
4  KINETIC CONTROL Mar09 Feb01 Nov22 Oct09 Sep14 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
5  CUT THE DUST Feb23 Jul19       (carroll j)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 12.00    
6  LION OF JUSTICE Mar15         (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 1.60 31% 2.20    
7  HEDGE Nov30 Nov01 Oct05 Aug05 Jun13 (colebrook ben)GRAHAM J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  TOUCHY Apr07 Feb16 Jan04 Oct23 Aug10 (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.50    
9  ASHLEY'S ARCHER Mar02 Nov30 Oct06 Sep15 Aug18 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
10  SKATE AWAY Feb22 Jan11       (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00 14% 6.40    
SCR  KAKAO Mar16 Dec06 Nov20 Oct26 Oct04 (vazquez )SANTANA JR 118 30.00    
12  LURED AWAY Mar02 Feb14 Jan11 Dec15 Nov20 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
SCR  HYMN (IRE) Mar14 Feb08       (moquett ronald)ORTIZ L 118 4.50    
14  VALENTINIAN Mar01         (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 120 3.50 31% 2.30    
 
KEE-8   04/09/2025 5280ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHOPPER'S REVENGE Feb15 Jun27 May27 May02 Mar30 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 118 15.00    
2  OBELISK Mar05 Jan15       (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  BRITISH ISLES Mar01 Dec28 Nov30 Oct31 Oct19 (baltas richard)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.00    
SCR  WARHOL Mar16 Feb01 Dec12 Nov15 Oct13 (beckman w)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 30.00    
5  ROTTERDAM Mar01 Jan23 Dec20 Mar30 Feb03 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 71% 0.40    
6  SAND PIPES Feb15 Dec21 Nov22 Oct17 Mar30 (schultz l)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  DOMINGO Mar01 Aug03 Jul08 May24 Apr26 (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 118 15.00    
8  NGANNOU May11 Apr07 Oct08 Sep10   (walsh brend)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 12.00    
9  ALEMAN Mar22 Mar07 Feb22 Jan29 Dec14 (jarvis k)RODRIGUEZ A 118 15.00    
10  NAVY SEAL (IRE) Mar29 Mar02 Feb07 Jan04 Dec15 (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00 5% 18.30    
11  PRESIDER Feb28 Jan31 Jan05 Nov24 Apr18 (russell br)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
12  SUMMER IN ADRIANE Mar15 Feb08 Jan18 Dec14 Nov21 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
13  SICILIAN DEFENSE Feb15 Jan18 Nov29 Nov03 Jul05 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 118 4.00 ★    
SCR  Z DANCER Jul26 Jun30 May26 May10 Apr12 (vazquez )SANTANA JR 118 30.00    
SCR  KISTLER Mar15 Feb05 Jan16 Oct25 Sep28 (king l)ROCCO S 118 20.00    
SCR  GAME POINT Mar07 Feb15 Dec21 Nov04 Oct10 (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 118 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.