Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Saturday - August 24, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (12/4/11/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (12/4/11/3)-(12/4/11/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (12/4/11/3)-(12/4/11/7/3)-(12/4/11/7/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (12/4/11/3)-(2/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (12/4/11/3)-(2/4/8)-(5/2/3) 36 $0.50 $108 
ELP-2   WIN (2/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/8)-(2/4/8/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/4/8)-(2/4/8/7)-(2/4/8/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (2/4/8)-(5/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/4/8)-(5/2/3)-(2/5/3/8) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
ELP-3   WIN (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/8/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/8/3)-(5/2/8/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/2/3)-(2/5/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/3)-(2/5/3/8)-(6/2/12/4/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-4   WIN (2/5/3/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/3/8)-(2/5/3/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/3/8)-(2/5/3/8)-(2/5/3/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/3/8)-(6/2/12/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/5/3/8)-(6/2/12/4/7)-(8/1/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-5   WIN (6/2/12/4/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/2/12/4/7)-(6/2/12/4/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/2/12/4/7)-(6/2/12/4/7)-(6/2/12/4/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/2/12/4/7)-(8/1/7) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/2/12/4/7)-(8/1/7)-(7/9/1/2/5) 75 $0.50 $37.50 
ELP-6   WIN (8/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/7)-(8/1/7/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/1/7)-(8/1/7/4)-(8/1/7/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/1/7)-(7/9/1/2/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (8/1/7)-(7/9/1/2/5)-(3/7/5) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
ELP-7   WIN (7/9/1/2/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/9/1/2/5)-(7/9/1/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/9/1/2/5)-(7/9/1/2/5)-(7/9/1/2/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/9/1/2/5)-(3/7/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/9/1/2/5)-(3/7/5)-(9/5/8/4/11) 75 $0.50 $37.50 
ELP-8   WIN (3/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/5)-(3/7/1/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/5)-(3/7/1/5/2)-(3/7/1/5/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/7/5)-(9/5/8/4/11) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
ELP-9   WIN (9/5/8/4/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/5/8/4/11)-(9/5/8/4/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/5/8/4/11)-(9/5/8/4/11)-(9/5/8/4/11) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/24/2024 3630ft TURF RC2 FIRM Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ENJOY THE GAME         (hancock john )POSTON AMANDA 109 30.00    
2  CAPTAIN FANCY         (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00    
3  MR. COLOSSAL Jul22         (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  ROBERT'S MOON Aug11         (vanden britt)EMIGH A 119 4.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  WAYLLEN RICHARD         (catalano way)MONCADA IRVING 112 15.00    
6  HOTLINE BLINK         (chavez manuel)ACHARD ALEX 119 20.00    
7  GERALDRAYDAPLEGRAY Jul28         (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.00 ★    
SCR  SKYNET Jul28         (barrett roddin)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00    
9  TAP ME A SONG         (santamaria ca)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00    
10  DANCER'S SHADOW         (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 8.00    
11  STASHU Jul22         (wainwrigh)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00 18% 4.50    
12  VERY BOLD         (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 29% 2.50    
13  MISTER BABY         (hancock j)HOLLINGSWORTH L 119 30.00    
 
ELP-2   08/24/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CUMBERLAND FALLS Jul04 Jun14 Apr19 Mar15 Oct07 (gibson de)TORRES A 123 6.00    
2  UP ON THE EDGE Jul20 Jun19 May27 Apr20 Dec09 (moquett ronal)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 6.00 29% 2.40    
3  THE BIG CALHOUNA Jun27 Jun08 May16 Apr21 Apr07 (santamaria)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00    
4  EAST SHORE Jul22 Nov12 Oct18 Jul22 Jun11 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 123 4.00 23% 3.40    
5  TANGO ZULU Mar21 Feb24 Feb16 Jan13 Nov23 (wismer glen)CONCEPCION AXEL 123 6.00    
SCR  STARLIT SOFI Aug07 Jul16 Jul02 May26 May03 (sanchez)DE CRUZ 123 15.00    
7  KRICKLE Jun28 May30 May09 Jan26 Dec29 (holsapple)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.50 ★    
8  EYES OF GOLD Jul22 Apr13 Mar23 Feb07 Jan13 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 123 3.50 14% 6.30    
 
ELP-3   08/24/2024 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MO RHODES Jul28 Jun29 May31 Apr24 Mar02 (amoss m)CHUAN MARTIN 118 8.00    
2  BATON ROUGE (IRE) Jul21 Jun07 May05 Mar15   (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 123 2.50 34% 2.00    
3  MY BROTHER KEITH Jul20 Jun23 May18 Apr07 Mar15 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  FIRST OF HIS NAME Jul28 Jun27 May29 May09 Mar21 (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
5  CORNISHMAN Jun30 May04 Mar16 Feb17 Jan20 (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 1.20 44% 1.30    
SCR  LADAN Aug10 Jul22 Jun12 May23 Apr07 (bogle fergus)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
7  NATIVE SHAMAN Jul29 Jun09 May15     (arnold ge)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
8  INDY MAGIC Jun30 Jun02 Apr17     (o'neill doug)TORRES A 118 6.00 ★    
 
ELP-4   08/24/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($73K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RED HOT JEANIE Jun27 May11 Mar27 Jul07 May29 (drury thomas )MORALES EDGAR 122 6.00    
2  REAGAN'S FLAME Jul29 Jun28 May31 Mar20 Feb01 (schultz l)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.00 48% 1.10    
3  FROSTY AFFAIR Feb14         (wells duan)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00 11% 8.00    
4  LUCY GOT GAME Feb24 Feb04       (amoss tho)TORRES A 118 5.00    
5  SISTER KISSES Jun19 May11 Mar30 Mar09 Feb10 (garcia genar)BARBOSA CARLOS 122 3.50 20% 4.00    
6  PLUM TRICKY Jul13 Jun05 Apr25 Mar16 Feb17 (stewart d)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50    
7  THESE APPLES Jul29 Jul06 Jun01 Apr19 Mar30 (foster eric)ACHARD ALEX 118 20.00    
8  PARTY Feb10 Dec29 Nov04 Sep30 Jul15 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-5   08/24/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 2:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SIR GALLIVANT         (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of NAUGHTY SISTER by ARCHARCHARCH)
2  EXUBERANT MISCHIEF         (amoss thomas)TORRES A 119 3.50 25% 3.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of EXUBERANCE by ARCHARCHARCH)
3  BUILT         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of SEA GARDEN by CURLIN)
4  GREATDAYFORHOCKEY         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of CAT RAGS by UNION RAGS)
5  WINDTALKER         (devaux ch)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of AMERICA'S SURPRISE by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
6  EAST AVENUE         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 26% 2.90    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of DANCE MUSIC by GHOSTZAPPER)
7  OUT OF THE CLOUDS         (asmussen s)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of HOT RENDEZVOUS by MACHO UNO)
8  RAVENS DREAM         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 12.00    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of SALLY RIDE by TAPIT)
SCR  GRYPHON         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by CONNECT out of SA FONT SALADA by MALIBU MOON)
10  CAMPAIGN TRAIL         (foster eri)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 30.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of LUNA RISING by STAY THIRSTY)
11  POPPA ECHO         (milligan )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
  (by ECHO TOWN out of QUEEN OF ACES by STREET BOSS)
12  SPEECHLESS         (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 5.00 7% 12.60    
  (by STREET SENSE out of OH MY by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
ELP-6   08/24/2024 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3 F PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DETERMINED CANDY Jul13 Jun02 Apr12     (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 5.00 8% 11.10    
2  LIVI ME DREAMING Jul11 Feb01 Dec31 Dec03 Oct10 (devaux cherie)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
3  BEST KISS YET Jul29 May31 Apr20 Apr05 Mar13 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 118 8.00    
4  SANCTIFY Aug04 Jun29 Jun07 May18 Apr17 (holsapple)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 3.50 ★    
SCR  PEIGNOIR Aug05 Jul05 Nov10 Oct15 Aug26 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 118 4.00    
6  STERLING LUCK Jul25 Jun05 Feb13 Jan19 Dec21 (forster t)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
7  EGYPTIAN CANDY Jan05 Nov29 Oct27     (leitch daniel)MACHADO LUAN 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  TWIRL AROUND Jul06 May16 Apr20 Jan26 Dec23 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50 64% 0.60    
SCR  WINAKACHING Jun28 May25 Apr20 Mar28   (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00    
10  TOASTED ROLL Jul29 Dec29 Nov26 Oct29 Sep28 (sharp joe)TORRES A 118 15.00    
SCR  AUTUMN CHILL Jul29 Nov25 Oct07 Aug27 Aug06 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 6.00    
 
ELP-7   08/24/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 2 ALL PT- 3:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BYE BYE MILES         (asmussen )TORRES A 119 5.00 7% 13.80    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of NEFERTITI by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  SILENT BREEZE         (hancock jo)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CATALINA RED out of ALL ABOUT JU JU by INTO MISCHIEF)
SCR  COPP         (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by BLAME out of SIERRA OLIVIA by PULPIT)
4  COCKTAILSNKRINGLE         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 6.00    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of CASUAL COCKTAIL by MAGNA GRADUATE)
5  DESERT AIRE         (puhich mike)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of GEORGIA by DANCE CENTRE)
6  PREPOSITION         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 114 8.00    
  (by TAPIT out of MODIFY by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
7  PIQUANT         (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 4.50 26% 2.80    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of TASTEFUL by STREET CRY)
8  WAR AND MAJESTY         (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of JULIA TUTTLE by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
9  FIRMUS         (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 119 4.00 25% 3.00    
  (by CURLIN out of FARRELL by MALIBU MOON)
10  SHOTGUN         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of FALSE IMPRESSION by A.P. INDY)
11  BIG WALK         (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 119 30.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of BANKRUPTONTHEBEACH by TEMPLE CITY)
12  BORROWED TIME Jul27 Jul05       (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 119 20.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of SECRETARIAL QUEEN by SECRETARIAT)
 
ELP-8   08/24/2024 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($73K) 3 ALL PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURE POETRY Jul06 Jun07 Apr13 Feb15 Jul31 (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 4.50 ★    
2  WILL TAKE IT Jun30 Jun02 Apr27 Mar30 Feb24 (milligan )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 ★    
3  HAMMERSTEIN Jul27 Feb03 Dec23 Oct07   (lynch bri)TORRES A 118 1.80 60% 0.70    
4  HIGGINS BOAT Aug12 May27 May04 Mar06 Feb17 (amoss m)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
5  FORTUNE SELLER Jul27 Jul06 Jun07 May11 Oct26 (williamson)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LEAD FOOT Aug12 Jul28 Jun14 May26 May10 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 118 50.00    
7  SOVEREIGNS JOY Jul15 May29       (maker michae)TORRES A 122 4.00 17% 5.00    
8  TWO BEERS BY TEN Jul18 May13 Apr30 Mar30 Mar01 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
9  SAN SIRO Mar09 Jan20 Dec23 Nov25   (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
SCR  OVERSTATEMENT Aug10 Jun07 May24     (miller kenny)BURGOS ALBERTO 118 20.00    
SCR  STORMS HOME Jul27 Jun23 May26 May05 Apr14 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 3.50    
 
ELP-9   08/24/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($71K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAN'T STOP WILLIS         (milligan eddi)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 15.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of INDELIBLE by TIZNOW)
2  LINE OF SCRIMMAGE         (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 8.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of OH BOO HOO by KAFWAIN)
3  AMENTUM Jul28         (walsh bren)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 12.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of IMPERTINENT by DISTORTED HUMOR)
4  DUKE OF DUVAL Jul07 Mar15       (asmussen )TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of CHAOTIC CAT by TALE OF THE CAT)
5  TOP GUN ROCKET Jul14 May27 May04 Feb16 Nov25 (mott riley)TORRES A 118 5.00 15% 5.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ROCKET TWENTYONE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
6  KNOW WHO YOU ARE Oct07 Aug27       (cowans willia)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of BIRDY NUM by TAPIT)
7  HE'S A JOKER Jun21 May27       (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of SHE'S PRETTY LUCKY by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
8  MULTITASK Jul28 Jun19       (harty eoin)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 15% 5.60    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of DIVIDED ATTENTION by A.P. INDY)
9  MOBSTER Jun21 May27 Jan21 Dec26 Nov26 (casse mar)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 3.00 34% 1.90    
  (by UNCLE MO out of MEADOW BREEZE by MEADOWLAKE)
SCR  COMMUTED Jul13 Jun21       (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of FINAL HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
11  BIG SALT LICK Jul07 Jun09       (o'neill doug)CANNON DECLAN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of RUBINDY by BERNARDINI)
12  GREER'S GOLD         (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of GREER LYNN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  MAJOR MACK Jun12 Apr27 Apr12 Mar08 Feb16 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of D'CATS MEOW by D'WILDCAT)
SCR  MASMAK Dec17 Nov12 Sep22     (dutrow rich)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 12.00    
  (by VINO ROSSO out of NITE IN ROME by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SCR  SHALLUS Aug06 Jul10 Jun26 Jun17 May10 (sanchez)DE CRUZ 118 20.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of STRIKE FREE by CONCERN)
SCR  BLACK IRON Jul14         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 113 15.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of TIZSOMTHINGSPECIAL by TIZNOW)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.