Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Thistledown
Wednesday - September 27, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TDN-1   WIN (2/8/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/8/6)-(2/8/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/8/6)-(2/8/6)-(2/8/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    DD (2/8/6)-(6/2/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/8/6)-(6/2/7)-(5/7/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-2   WIN (6/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/7)-(6/2/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/7)-(6/2/7)-(6/2/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/2/7)-(5/7/2)-(1/2/8) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-3   WIN (5/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/2)-(5/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/2)-(5/7/2)-(5/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/7/2)-(1/2/8)-(6/3/1) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-4   WIN (1/2/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/8)-(1/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/8)-(1/2/8)-(1/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/2/8)-(6/3/1)-(4/1/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
TDN-5   WIN (6/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/1)-(6/3/1)-(6/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/3/1)-(4/1/6)-(2/3) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
TDN-6   WIN (4/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/6)-(4/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/6)-(4/1/6)-(4/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/1/6)-(2/3)-(1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
TDN-7   WIN (2/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/3)-(2/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
    DD (2/3)-(1/6) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
TDN-8   WIN (1/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/6)-(1/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $1.00 $0.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TDN-1   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($17K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JACK BE FAST Sep04 Aug22 Aug09 Jul18 Jun07 (hernandez r)SEVERINO VICTOR 123 5.00    
2  GOLDEN MONEY Sep12 Aug21 Aug01 Jul18 Jun27 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 123 2.50 35% 1.80    
3  TIZ A RUSH Sep12 Aug21 Jul31 Jul11 May20 (shanyfelt vale)GONZALEZ A 123 6.00    
SCR  THE GOSPEL OF MARK Aug24 Jul27 Jul04 May31 Apr12 (vazquez ivan)KEISER CHELSEY 123 10.00    
5  PLATE IT UP Sep18 Sep07 Aug21 Aug01 Jul18 (tumblin andrew)PAUCAR E 123 6.00    
6  CRAZYCANTBERIGHTED Sep12 Aug21 Aug01 Jul12 Jun26 (shanyfelt va)BERRIOS HECTOR 123 4.50 12% 7.70    
7  OLE WATASHI Sep04 Aug21 Nov12 Oct11 Sep22 (schuster robin)BOWEN ROCCO 123 20.00    
8  OAKEN Sep12 Aug16 Jul31 Jul12 Jun27 (calderon ivan)CEDILLO MAURO 118 3.50 31% 2.20    
 
TDN-2   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COURTLY Sep05 Aug15 Jul27 Jul10 Jun21 (puhl kim)BOWEN ROCCO 119 4.50    
2  GRAN MAMIBELLA Sep06 Jul27 Jun21 Jun01 May02 (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 119 4.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  YEARS AGO Sep06 Aug17 Jul27 Jul17 Jul03 (trevino steph)BARBARAN ERIK 123 2.00    
4  MIRACLE DRUG (IRE) Aug24 Aug14 Jul24 Jun26 Jun12 (langley joshu)GUERERE ANGEL 119 8.00    
5  BLAZING ZENNA Sep07 Aug02 Jul11 Jun13 May22 (mahan josep)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 15.00    
6  TEAM GOLD DIGGER Sep06 Aug22 Jul26 Jul17 Jul04 (ramgeet tina)RAMGEET R 123 2.50 33% 2.00    
7  LADY LEAH Sep04 May31 Mar03     (erdel john)DIAZ R 119 10.00 13% 7.00    
 
TDN-3   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLYING BUSINESS Aug23 Jul26 Jun14 May29 May02 (hurley l)PAUCAR E 119 12.00    
2  KINGSTON TIME Sep05 Jul11 Jun13 May31 Apr27 (urieta )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 2.50 15% 5.90    
3  SABELLE Jul26 Jun26 May22 May02 Apr15 (ca)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 8.00    
4  MAGICGIRL Sep12 Aug17 Jun21 May22 May15 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 123 3.00    
5  MAMBO DANCER (CHI) Sep12 Aug16 Jul10 Jun01 May15 (canegata james)FELICIANO R 119 6.00 35% 1.80    
6  CARISMATICA Sep04 Aug28 Aug08 Jul11 Feb12 (cascallares n)LUGO D 123 3.50    
7  BLACK BUTTE Aug16 Jul26 Jun26 Jun05 May24 (patton luke)DIAZ I 119 4.50 21% 3.70    
 
TDN-4   09/27/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IT'S FATE Sep05 Aug16 Jul15 Jun24 May06 (canegata james)FELICIANO R 123 3.50 30% 2.40    
2  ALGORIX Sep05 Aug16 Jul24 Jul03 Jun14 (bracho j)GUERERE ANGEL 119 8.00 21% 3.80    
SCR  LEXATOGA Sep05 Aug16 Jul26 Jun21 Jan18 (calderon ivan)DIAZ I 119 10.00    
4  SKIDSTREAM Sep11 Aug31 Aug16 May23 Mar14 (faulkn)BATISTA ALBERTO 123 4.00    
5  SAY HEY KID Aug24 Aug03 Jul03 Jun24 Jun01 (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 121 12.00    
6  BALTIC FLEET Sep05 Aug29 Aug22 Jun11 Jun04 (gomez aleja)SEVERINO VICTOR 119 8.00    
7  ACROSS THE AISLE Aug28 Aug03 Jul18 Jun13 Mar02 (rivera )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 121 2.50    
8  NOBLE BEHAVIOR Sep05 Aug24 Aug03 Jul24 Jul10 (londono odin)HALDAR J 119 4.50 13% 7.00    
 
TDN-5   09/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($16.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MALIBU CLASSIC Sep06 Aug10 Jul24 Jun29 May10 (brown gle)HERNANDEZ H 123 5.00 5% 19.00    
2  DUEL FUEL Jun06 May16 May06 Apr24 Apr13 (romero o)FERNANDEZ R 119 12.00    
3  O CIGANO Sep13 Aug23 Jul31 Jul03 Jun07 (urieta johanna)DIAZ I 121 3.50 8% 11.40    
4  BEASTFROMTHEEAST Sep05 Aug08 Jul11 Apr19 Oct04 (cascallares n)LUGO D 119 8.00    
5  THE COOKIE MAN Sep07 Jul31 Jun24 Jun01 May21 (ri)SALAZAR FERNANDO 119 2.00    
6  GEHRIG Aug17 Jun10 May08 Apr04 Mar01 (wolochuk dav)KEISER CHELSEY 121 1.80 63% 0.60    
 
TDN-6   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($20.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING PATRIOT Sep12 Sep23 Sep05 Jul11 Jun28 (rone mike)BOWEN ROCCO 115 8.00 18% 4.40    
2  ORLEANS STORM Sep12 Aug22 Aug10 Jul17 Jul04 (tumblin andre)CEDILLO MAURO 119 2.50    
3  VEGAS PLAYER Sep12 Aug24 Aug11 Jul26 Jul05 (poole m)BRACHO A 115 4.00    
4  INDY CARR Aug30 Aug12 Jul22 Apr12 Mar29 (tooley jennifer)AVILES YAN 115 2.00 47% 1.10    
5  JOHN PHILIP Sep12 Aug30 Aug22 Dec14 Nov30 (da)SALAZAR FERNANDO 117 4.50    
6  NOSEY POWER Sep12 Aug22 Aug02 Jul20 Jul05 (spiess )RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 119 6.00 7% 13.10    
 
TDN-7   09/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($16.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MASTER Sep13 Aug31 Aug14 Jul27 Jul10 (casalinova ti)GUERERE ANGEL 123 5.00    
2  SHADOW TRACER Aug29 Jul26 Jun21 Jun07 May08 (jackson james )HOUGHTON D 119 1.80 44% 1.30    
3  HAPPILEA Aug16 Jul18 Jun27 Jun07 Mar23 (wo)SALAZAR FERNANDO 121 2.50 18% 4.40    
4  BOURBON OVER ICE Sep12 Aug16 Jul26 Jul11 Apr08 (urieta johan)HALDAR J 123 3.50    
5  VENETIAN DREAM Sep18 Sep05 Aug23 Aug14 Sep12 (bailey ricardo)BOWEN ROCCO 121 10.00    
SCR  LAUDA SPEED Sep05 Aug16 Jul12 Jun24 Jun05 (trevino steph)CEDILLO MAURO 114 6.00    
 
TDN-8   09/27/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($38.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPECIALIZED Aug31 Aug09 Jul24     (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 119 2.00 60% 0.70    
2  BRONZE KETTLE Aug26 Jul27 Jun14 May10 Apr12 (pappada julie )GONZALEZ A 115 4.50    
SCR  JEBIP Sep11 Apr13 Apr03 Feb28 Feb01 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 119 6.00 12% 7.10    
4  TIER ONE Aug23 Jul27 Jul06 Jun09 Jun01 (fletcher jef)GONZALEZ KEVIN 115 4.00    
5  CONTROLLER Sep13 Aug11 Jul22 Jun09 May11 (hamm timothy)BOWEN ROCCO 115 3.00    
6  A PRAYER FOR KIDS Sep07 Aug23 Jul27 Jul10 Jun15 (rettele ri)HERNANDEZ ALVARO 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.