Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Oaklawn Park
Thursday - March 02, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
OP-1   WIN (2/9/4/1/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/9/4/1/3)-(2/9/4/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/9/4/1/3)-(2/9/4/1/3)-(2/9/4/1/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/9/4/1/3)-(4/10/11/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
OP-2   WIN (4/10/11/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/10/11/9)-(4/10/11/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/10/11/9)-(4/10/11/9)-(4/10/11/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/10/11/9)-(3/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/10/11/9)-(3/1)-(4/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
OP-3   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(3/1/2/6/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (3/1)-(3/1/2/6/7)-(3/1/2/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1)-(4/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/1)-(4/3/2)-(1/2/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
OP-4   WIN (4/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/2)-(4/3/2/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (4/3/2)-(4/3/2/9)-(4/3/2/9) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (4/3/2)-(1/2/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2)-(1/2/7/4)-(1/8/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
OP-5   WIN (1/2/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/7/4)-(1/2/7/4/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/2/7/4)-(1/2/7/4/8)-(1/2/7/4/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/2/7/4)-(1/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/7/4)-(1/8/4)-(10/6/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
OP-6   WIN (1/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/8/4)-(1/8/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/8/4)-(1/8/4/2)-(1/8/4/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/8/4)-(10/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/8/4)-(10/6/4)-(2/6/3/7/4) 45 $0.50 $22.50 
OP-7   WIN (10/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/6/4)-(10/6/4/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/6/4)-(10/6/4/3/5)-(10/6/4/3/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (10/6/4)-(2/6/3/7/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (10/6/4)-(2/6/3/7/4)-(3/11/7/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
OP-8   WIN (2/6/3/7/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/6/3/7/4)-(2/6/3/7/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/6/3/7/4)-(2/6/3/7/4)-(2/6/3/7/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/6/3/7/4)-(3/11/7/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
OP-9   WIN (3/11/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/11/7/4)-(3/11/7/4/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/11/7/4)-(3/11/7/4/2)-(3/11/7/4/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
OP-1   03/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($26K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRYSTAL CRESCENT Jan29 Jan06 Nov26 Nov10 Aug25 (mcknight norma)SAEZ GABRIEL 117 6.00 12% 7.30    
2  BACK BEAT Feb17 Jan06 Dec16 Nov20 Nov02 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 117 1.60 19% 4.20    
3  BOTANY Feb11 Jan21 Dec18 Nov30 Nov03 (moquett ro)ASMUSSEN J 117 12.00 7% 14.20    
4  THE FIVE B'S Feb20 Feb03 Dec29 Dec01 Nov16 (deville j)JUAREZ NIK 117 3.00 18% 4.70    
5  TALE OF TRUTH Feb11 Dec18 May01 Apr22 Mar26 (diodoro r)TORRES A 117 8.00    
6  DRIVER Feb11 Jan21 Dec18 Sep16 Aug19 (hornsby tammy)WALES T 117 30.00    
7  WARNING LABEL Jan21 Dec18 Jun30 Jun08 May29 (cline n)HARR KELSI 117 20.00    
8  DEPART Jan21 Dec18 May01 Apr09 Mar26 (milligan all)MEDELLIN ERICK 112 20.00    
9  NEW DICE Feb10 Jan22 Oct30 Sep07 Aug27 (litfin nevada)PUSAC ALBERTO 122 4.00 19% 4.20    
 
OP-2   03/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PROMISING SHOES Feb19 Jan27 Jan07 Nov18 Nov04 (altamirano)GALLARDO EDUARDO 118 10.00    
2  ORBITAL STARR Jan08 Aug02 Jun19 Jun04 May07 (prather john)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 12.00    
SCR  HERITAGE PARK Feb05 Jul29 Jun19 May13 Apr23 (martin timoth)PUSAC ALBERTO 118 3.50 ★    
4  OJITOS Jan08 Nov11 Oct27 Sep28 Sep14 (hewitt michael)HARR KELSI 118 6.00 33% 2.10    
5  OBVIOUSLY TOO Jan08 Sep24 Aug27 Aug08 Jul02 (mcbride burl )BAILEY CHEL-C 118 15.00    
6  ROCK CITY ROCKET Jan08 Sep18 Jul31 Jul03 Jun17 (martin timot)JORDAN R 118 12.00    
7  AFRICAN WARRIOR Jan08 Sep03 Aug07 Jul24 Jul09 (prather h)ZIMMERMAN R 118 20.00    
SCR  THE HEAT IS ON Jan20 Oct19 Sep16 May08 Apr27 (pish danny)CABRERA DAVID 118 20.00    
9  HOLDING PATTERN Feb11 Jan08 Dec10 Oct03 Sep04 (litfin ne)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 4.50 7% 12.40    
10  J. E.'S HANDMEDOWN Feb05 Dec30 Jun11 May07 Apr23 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 5.00 22% 3.50    
11  WHENTHEDOVESCRY Jan21 Dec28 Dec15 Oct14 Jul30 (broberg k)TORRES A 118 4.00 14% 6.00    
 
OP-3   03/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($48K) 3 F PT- 2:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRUE EMOTION Jan27 Jan07       (anderson dou)JORDAN R 118 3.50 24% 3.10    
2  COLLECTED GLORY Feb10 Jan27 Dec31 Nov16 Aug20 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.00 ★    
3  BIOGENIC BABE Feb10 Jan15 Dec14     (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 1.60 50% 1.00    
4  MOMMA MULE         (von hemel)TRIANA JR 122 15.00    
5  STAY FABULOUS Feb12 Jan20 Nov04 Oct08   (chleborad ly)GONZALEZ ELVIN 122 10.00    
6  JUMPIN JUDY Jan20         (broberg karl)ZIMMERMAN R 122 5.00 ★    
7  FREE WILL Jan27 Nov26       (chleborad )ERAMIA E 122 12.00 ★    
 
OP-4   03/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($26K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORNING DRIVE Jan20 Jan08 Dec18 Sep13 Sep01 (lauer mich)MICHEL MICKAELLE 117 30.00    
2  FREER Feb10 Jan27 Sep11 Aug27 Jul30 (martin ti)TRIANA JR 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  GOLDEN LUNA Jan22 Nov27 Oct28 Sep24 Jul31 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 2.50 32% 2.10    
4  YACHT ROCK (IRE) Feb03 Jan20 Dec11 Nov19 Oct23 (diodoro r)TORRES A 119 1.60 40% 1.50    
5  BRASKA Feb11 Jan21 Jan01 Jul17 Jun30 (cline n)HARR KELSI 117 30.00    
6  SKYLINE Feb20 Feb10 Jan08 Dec09 Nov15 (haran joh)DE CRUZ 122 10.00    
7  UPTOWN HUSTLER Feb10 Jan27 Jan13 Oct26 Oct12 (villafranco )CASTILLO ISAAC 122 20.00    
SCR  SHAKEDOWN STREET Jan27 Jan06 Dec09 Nov13 Oct12 (litfin ne)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 3.50 ★    
9  UNCLE RAY Feb17 Feb03 Sep22 Sep01 Aug19 (loy dewain)JORDAN R 124 6.00 ★    
 
OP-5   03/02/2023 5610ft DIRT RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOUNT CRAIG Feb04 Nov27 Nov03 Jun26   (mott will)TORRES A 125 3.50 29% 2.50    
  (by ARROGATE out of FLASH FORWARD by SCROLL)
2  LIFE ON THE NILE Feb20 Jan13 Apr16 Mar19 Feb26 (hollendorfer jer)JUAREZ NIK 125 4.50 25% 2.90    
  (by PIONEEROF THE NILE out of LIFE IS SWEET by STORM CAT)
3  ATLANTIC DANCER Feb04 Jan07 Dec17 Oct29 Sep15 (zito p)BEJARANO R 125 15.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SLOW SAND by DIXIELAND BAND)
4  GOIN TO THE SHOW Feb04 Jan29       (puhich mike)BAZE C 125 12.00 7% 13.70    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of HEATH by PULPIT)
5  LAPINSKI UNION         (robertson mclea)ZIMMERMAN R 119 15.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SAFE JOURNEY by FLATTER)
6  BOLZY Feb10         (von hemel )ERAMIA E 125 10.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SHE'S ALL IN by INCLUDE)
7  ANDY CANT Jan07 Dec16 Nov13 Oct08 Sep01 (mott will)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 3.00 14% 6.10    
  (by BERNARDINI out of WHISKED AWAY by VICTORY GALLOP)
8  DEPUTY CONNECT Jan27 May03 Mar13 Feb12   (cox brad)SANTANA JR 125 2.00 ★    
  (by CONNECT out of RAVENESQUE by DANCE WITH RAVENS)
 
OP-6   03/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($103K) 3 F PT- 4:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROYAL SPA Dec03 Nov18       (brisset )SANTANA JR 119 2.50 23% 3.40    
2  SECRET STATEMENT Dec31 Nov24 Nov10     (baker james)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 ★    
3  PIONEER PARADE Jan21 Dec31 Oct30 Sep24   (divito ja)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
4  EMPIRE OF MY OWN Aug26 Aug14 Jul04 Jun10 May05 (asmussen ste)CASTILLO ISAAC 119 10.00 7% 14.20    
SCR  PATE Feb11 Jan21 Dec11 Nov11 Oct19 (stuart c)BEJARANO R 122 2.00 33% 2.10    
6  CRACKALACKING Jan13 Oct07 Sep15 Aug14 Jul04 (shorter a)TORRES A 119 20.00    
7  UNIFYING Jan20 Dec31 Nov10 Sep15   (mott riley)CABRERA DAVID 119 3.00    
8  THUNDERS ROCKNROLL Sep10 Aug17       (robertson mclean)JUAREZ NIK 119 8.00 12% 7.20    
 
OP-7   03/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($26K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GO GO GO Feb05 Jan21 Dec10 Sep19   (villafranco )CASTILLO ISAAC 124 8.00    
2  TENZING Dec09         (mcbride burl )BAILEY CHEL-C 119 30.00    
3  TRUEBLUEGIRL Feb05 Apr15 Mar27 Mar06 Feb13 (prather h)ZIMMERMAN R 124 15.00 ★    
4  KOOTENAI FALLS         (hornsby tammy)WALES T 119 30.00 22% 3.50    
5  THE X FACTOR Feb05 Jan21 Jan13 Dec17 Oct11 (martin wil)MICHEL MICKAELLE 124 12.00 ★    
6  QUALITY CHROME Feb05 Jan13 Jun09 May25 May08 (mason ing)TORRES A 124 2.00 23% 3.40    
7  WILD BIZNESS Jan21 Jan30       (milligan all)MEDELLIN ERICK 119 30.00    
8  ROWDY DAISY Feb05 Dec17       (smith p)FUENTES ERICK 114 4.00    
9  LITTLEDABWILLDOO Feb12         (martin timot)JORDAN R 119 15.00    
10  LUNCH LADY Jan21 Jun29 May29     (moquett e)BEJARANO R 124 2.50 33% 2.00    
SCR  SHEZA CAT Feb10 Jan22 Dec30     (durham danele)CABRERA DAVID 124 20.00    
 
OP-8   03/02/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($105K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEALING JUSTICE Jan14 Nov11 Sep16 Aug07 May20 (mott riley)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 8.00    
2  AMERICAN LILY Jan22 Dec30 Nov27 Oct23 Sep25 (miller peter)GARCIA MARTIN 124 3.00 30% 2.30    
3  LASTCHANCEFORLOVE Sep25 Sep03 Jun10 May08 Feb25 (calhoun willi)CABRERA DAVID 121 4.50 12% 7.20    
4  HEADLAND Jan14 Oct26 Sep16 Apr30 Apr10 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  SARAH HARPER Jan21 Dec17 Nov06 Oct09 Aug20 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 3.50    
6  I'M THE BOSS OF ME Jan21 Dec17 Oct28 Apr16 Apr02 (compton g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 2.00 17% 4.90    
7  TIZPLENTY Jan14 Dec17 May14     (asmussen)SANTANA JR 124 12.00 11% 7.80    
 
OP-9   03/02/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($10K) Purse ($27K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POLTERER Jan21 Dec30 Nov02     (compton g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
2  FIRST LINE Feb11 Jan27 Jan20 May23 Apr23 (broberg k)TORRES A 118 4.00 ★    
3  CATHOLIC GUILT Feb10 Dec20 Oct26 Aug08 Jul25 (broberg karl)ZIMMERMAN R 118 5.00 44% 1.30    
4  GENERATOR Feb04 Jan20 Jan01 Dec16 Nov16 (vance thomas )CABRERA DAVID 118 4.50 5% 19.00    
5  ZOFFA Feb19 Jan27 Dec11 Oct19 Sep25 (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
6  STUD PUPPY Dec13 Nov29 Nov14 Oct26 Oct10 (zito p)HARR KELSI 118 30.00    
7  ESKENFORIT Feb11 Jan27 Jan01 Aug16 Aug02 (martin timot)JORDAN R 118 5.00 8% 11.90    
SCR  EGOMANIAC Feb10 Jan01 Dec17 Oct22 Oct07 (mason ingrid)WALES T 113 15.00    
9  PRIMER DIMER Feb04 Jan13 Dec17 Nov19 Oct23 (asmussen ste)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 10.00    
10  GEORGIA DEPUTY Feb19 Feb04 Jan08 Dec17 Oct28 (petalino )DE CRUZ 118 20.00    
11  EGO Feb10 Jan08 Dec11 Jul17 Jun23 (puhl kim)JUAREZ NIK 118 3.50 21% 3.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.