Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - October 30, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/1)-(2/1/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1)-(2/1/6/5)-(2/1/6/5) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (2/1)-(2/3/8/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/1)-(2/3/8/4)-(1/7/2) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (2/3/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/8/4)-(2/3/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/8/4)-(2/3/8/4)-(2/3/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/8/4)-(1/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/8/4)-(1/7/2)-(1/4/8/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/7/2)-(1/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/7/2)-(1/7/2)-(1/7/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/7/2)-(1/4/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/7/2)-(1/4/8/7)-(8/2/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/4/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/8/7)-(1/4/9/8/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/4/8/7)-(1/4/9/8/7)-(1/4/9/8/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/4/8/7)-(8/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/8/7)-(8/2/6)-(12/13/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (8/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/2/6)-(8/2/6/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/2/6)-(8/2/6/4)-(8/2/6/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/2/6)-(12/13/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/2/6)-(12/13/2)-(10/7/6/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-6   WIN (12/13/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (12/13/2)-(12/13/2/10) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (12/13/2)-(12/13/2/10)-(12/13/2/10) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (12/13/2)-(10/7/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (12/13/2)-(10/7/6/8)-(8/9/7/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (10/7/6/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/7/6/8)-(10/7/6/1/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/7/6/8)-(10/7/6/1/8)-(10/7/6/1/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/7/6/8)-(8/9/7/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (10/7/6/8)-(8/9/7/3)-(5/2/14/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-8   WIN (8/9/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/9/7/3)-(8/9/7/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/9/7/3)-(8/9/7/1/3)-(8/9/7/1/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/9/7/3)-(5/2/14/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/9/7/3)-(5/2/14/7)-(1/6/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-9   WIN (5/2/14/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/14/7)-(5/2/14/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/14/7)-(5/2/14/7)-(5/2/14/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/14/7)-(1/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-10   WIN (1/6/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/8)-(1/6/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/8)-(1/6/8)-(1/6/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   10/30/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PIERCE ELEVATED Sep25 Sep13 Aug18 Aug04 Jun26 (salas ma)RODRIGUEZ A 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  EL CORDOBES (IRE) Sep27 Sep21 Aug30 Aug09 Jul26 (calleja gust)CALLEJA ANDRES 118 15.00 77% 0.30    
3  WHERE'S RANDY Sep21 Jul14 Jun20 May03 Apr06 (ramirez-r)TORRES A 122 10.00    
4  NOBLE GENTLEMAN Oct10 Sep19 Aug08 Jul12 Jul04 (labra rogelio)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00    
5  EXPLOSIVELY Oct17 Sep21 Aug18 Jul14 Jun15 (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.00 ★    
6  HEY BUDDY Oct10 Sep20 Sep07 Aug08 Jul18 (martinez kell)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 ★    
7  MO HOPE Sep19 Aug17 Jun07 May18 Apr10 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 1.80    
 
CD-2   10/30/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FEARLESS LADY Apr26 Jan31 Dec20 Nov21 Oct13 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
2  MUSTANG LADY Sep26 Sep12 Aug16 Jul03 Apr11 (newton tr)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 3.00 38% 1.60    
3  SISTER CARLIE Sep13 Aug22 May17 Apr07 Feb23 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 118 2.50 19% 4.20    
4  PARKING LOT POURS Oct15 Sep19 Aug20 Jul03 Jun19 (brownfield cl)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 9% 9.60    
5  MIZMALICE Oct15 Sep13 Aug07 May25 May11 (hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 6.00    
6  TANGANYIKA Oct01 Aug02 May28 Mar28   (greenhill jeff)MCKEE J 118 20.00    
7  REIGN CHAMPAGNE Sep14 Jul14 Jun04 May11 Nov06 (scherer m)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00    
8  RIDE THE BROOM Oct09 Sep13 Aug04 Jul06 Jun04 (roberts joe)POSTON K 111 15.00 10% 9.30    
 
CD-3   10/30/2025 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PENALTY BOX Aug24 Jul20 Jun14 May10   (mccarthy mi)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 2.00 28% 2.60    
  (by VIOLENCE out of LADY ALIDA by STREET BOSS)
2  ORIGINAL SIN Dec13 Oct23       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CURLIN out of BEAUTY AND LIGHT by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
3  TORRE EIFFEL         (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 120 20.00    
  (by CUPID out of LOST BADGE by BADGE OF SILVER)
4  NOMOLIMBO May26 Apr13       (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 120 30.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of PRETTY ZIPPY by CITY ZIP)
SCR  BOLD STRENGTH Jun27         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 1.80    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of VAUNTING by EXCHANGE RATE)
6  SIXTYSEVEN MUSTANG Sep25 May08 Mar29 Feb23 Jan18 (anderson doug)BACON W 120 5.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of FIRE OF FREEDOM by STREET CRY (IRE))
7  THE EXODUS TWIST Sep13         (stall m)ELLIOTT JANE 120 6.00 27% 2.70    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of CELSIUS by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
CD-4   10/30/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 2 F PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHIDONI Oct08 Aug31 Jul13 Jun14   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 53% 0.90    
2  MIDNIGHT FLIGHT Oct09 Sep13       (ortiz al)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
3  I MEAN BUSINESS Oct09 Sep07 Aug18     (spicer jame)POSTON K 112 15.00    
4  PRINCESS CELINE Oct04 Aug13       (cox h)MACHADO LUAN 119 2.50 24% 3.10    
5  NO ARGUMENT Sep15 Aug27       (hump)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 20.00    
6  MAMARSHA Oct17 Oct05 Aug24     (holsapple)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 12.00    
7  BROADWAY MUSICAL Oct01 Aug31 Aug16     (o'dwyer jere)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  TOPIC THUNDER Oct16 Jun18       (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  AUTHENTIC ANGEL Oct09 Sep12 Aug31 Aug03 Jul04 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 6.00 ★    
10  MY SECRET DREAMS Oct09 Sep07 Aug16 Jul12   (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 6.00    
11  GOLD LADY Sep24         (moreno ti)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
 
CD-5   10/30/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STARCOURT Sep25 Aug23 Aug02 Jul04 Apr29 (roberson )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00    
2  WONDER OF YOU Sep13 Aug11 Jul12 May15 May16 (amoss thomas)TORRES A 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  ELLIOTT MOON Sep25 Aug26 Aug02 Feb26 Feb01 (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 15.00    
4  TARTARIA Oct05 Sep13 Jul22 Jul08 May27 (leonard geo)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 10.00 ★    
SCR  BROOKLYNN DREW Sep17 Aug16 Jul19 Jun18 May17 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.60    
6  SPOTAWAY Oct07 Sep12 Aug01 Jul19 Jun18 (rouck mart)HERNANDEZ N 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  CRACKLE (GB) Oct09 Sep30 Sep06 Aug28 Aug18 (holsapple hutch)GRAHAM J 120 12.00    
8  CAMPAIGN PROMISES Oct07 Sep13 Aug23 Aug02 Jul09 (moge)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 2.00 72% 0.40    
9  COASTLINE HOTTIE Sep13 Aug23 Aug11 Jun22 Mar31 (axmaker w)MURGIA A 121 20.00    
 
CD-6   10/30/2025 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CAMEO PERFORMANCE Oct08 Aug28 Jun05 May03 Mar22 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00    
2  SECRET CHAT Oct15 Sep25 Aug28 Jul21 Jun07 (barnett bob)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 30.00 22% 3.60    
SCR  DUNEDIN Oct02 Aug31 Jul07 Jan17 Dec21 (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 20.00    
SCR  OUT OF DEDUCTIONS Sep28 Sep06 Jun26 May29 Apr29 (block chr)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 3.50    
5  GROVELAND Feb15 Jan26 Nov23 Sep24 Aug06 (harty eoin)TORRES A 122 20.00    
SCR  INNATELY GOOD Sep28 Sep10 Aug18 Jul26 Jun28 (goodwin n)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 30.00    
SCR  LAUGH A LOT Jul19 Jun07 Mar15 Dec26 Aug19 (drury j)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
8  JUST A FAIR SHAKE Sep28 Sep06 Aug22 Aug03 Jun14 (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 20.00    
9  ASPENITE Sep10 Aug31 Aug02 Jul05 Jun21 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 12.00    
10  SARDIS Oct08 Sep04 Jul21 Jun28 Apr25 (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 124 10.00 ★    
SCR  DEPICTION Sep11 Aug09 Jun05 Apr24 Oct26 (devaux cheri)GEROUX FLORENT 122 4.00    
12  PRINCETOWN Sep10 Aug10 Jun28 Jun14 Apr12 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 4.00 30% 2.40    
13  THE PROCESS Aug31 Jul05 May25 Oct03 Aug30 (devaux che)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00 24% 3.20    
 
CD-7   10/30/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NORTHERN CHILL Aug30 Aug03 Jun25 May16 Apr26 (shirer mat)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 ★    
2  DREAMINBLUE Aug30 Jul04 Jun06 Mar21 Feb23 (morse l)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
3  HYMN (IRE) Sep18 Jul03 Jun01 Apr19 Mar14 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
4  OBELISK Apr09 Mar05 Jan15     (moge)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 20.00    
5  NICHOLAI May25 Apr19 Mar29     (vance d)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
6  MAP TO THE STARS Sep18 Aug02 Jun15 May23 Apr08 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 8% 12.20    
7  RISK IT Sep18 Aug08 Jul13 Jun25 Apr29 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 5.00 12% 7.30    
8  B SUDD Jun25 May29 Mar22 Feb23 Jan19 (von hemel)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  JACK'S PROMISE Oct07 Aug03 May25 May03 Apr06 (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
10  SUBITO (GB) Sep13 Jul04       (mott william)TORRES A 120 3.00 53% 0.90    
 
CD-8   10/30/2025 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MULTITASK Aug28 Jul05 Jun01 May01 Mar07 (harty eoin)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 6.00 ★    
2  THREE TECHNIQUE Sep27 Sep12 Aug10 Jul20 Jun28 (cook b)LANERIE J 120 20.00    
3  WOODCOURT Feb16 Jan25 Jan05 Nov26 Oct24 (contreras)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  IMPLEMENTATION Oct12 Aug30 Jul05 Mar29 Jan25 (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 120 5.00    
5  MONEY SUPPLY Sep18 Aug22 Aug01 Jul05 Jun01 (jacobson )TORRES A 120 15.00    
SCR  TRADEMARK Sep19 Aug22 Jul26 Jul08 Jun14 (oliver victo)TORRES A 120 15.00    
7  FULL SCREEN Aug22 Jul18 Jun27 Jun01 Mar29 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.50 6% 15.20    
8  BENDOOG Sep24 Aug19 Jul04 May04 Mar29 (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.00 51% 0.90    
9  GUN PARTY Aug13 Jun29 Jun06 May10 Apr19 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.50 20% 4.10    
10  CARAMEL CHIP Sep20 Aug19 Jul18 Jun28 May16 (david a)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00    
 
CD-9   10/30/2025 5940ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($50K) Purse ($76K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FREAK CITY Oct10 Sep25 Aug27 Jul14 Jun13 (jacobs mag)HERNANDEZ N 122 10.00    
2  AVISO Sep28 Aug28 Jul06 Jun13 May25 (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 3.00 22% 3.50    
SCR  ROMANY ROAD Oct03 Mar04 Feb16 Jan31 Jan03 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
4  HOLD MY HALO Apr26 Mar22 Mar01 Dec27 Oct07 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 122 10.00    
5  EVELYN LOUISE Oct08 Jul16 May28 Apr17 Mar08 (oliver v)RODRIGUEZ A 118 4.50 26% 2.90    
SCR  SHEILA'S LION Oct10 Sep06 Jul19 Jun14 May10 (desormeaux j)TORRES A 118 6.00    
7  LADY LILYLOU Sep06 Aug10 Jul03 Apr24   (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 118 6.00 9% 10.00    
SCR  CALL ME TONI Sep04 Aug04 Oct26 Jul27 Jun21 (hughes g)GRAHAM J 122 15.00    
SCR  TACO CAT BACKWARDS Sep24 Sep03 Jul03 May08 Mar04 (troiani nicco)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00    
SCR  RIGHTINTHATWRONG Oct15 Sep02 Aug09 Dec20 Oct28 (corrigan jim)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
SCR  VEE'S REASON Sep17 Jul26       (frazier matt)CANUTO THIAGO 122 20.00    
12  MY SEXY BLONDE Oct03 Aug18 Jul12 May18 Feb05 (taylor bren)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 5.00    
SCR  MALIBU SMART Sep26 Sep04 Jul21 May29 Feb28 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 4.00    
14  DERRY GIRL Sep23 Aug06 Jul14 Jun18 May22 (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00 21% 3.90    
SCR  DRAMA SPEAKER Sep28 Sep20 Aug23 Aug10 Jul26 (miller da)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
SCR  ASTERIA Aug22 Jul15 Jun14 May20 Mar28 (navarret)RODRIGUEZ A 118 15.00    
 
CD-10   10/30/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALONGCOMESAWOMAN Aug30 Sep15 Aug04 Jul06   (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 120 2.50 46% 1.20    
2  CLOUD NUMBER NINE Oct08 Sep21       (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 15.00    
3  DYNAMITE Aug09         (hughes by)BEALMEAR C 120 12.00    
4  FORMAGGIO Nov08 Oct18 Sep22 Aug25   (brion keri)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 4.00    
SCR  SUITEFOURFOURTHREE Sep13 Jul26 Jun29 May02 Apr18 (compton greg)CEDILLO ABEL 120 3.50    
6  SMOKIN HOT WIFE Oct19 Sep14 Aug08 Dec27 Nov30 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 3.00 17% 4.90    
SCR  BELONGTOTHENAVY Oct08         (butcher james)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 120 15.00    
8  BOLD BABY TENDER         (barrett ro)ANDERSON MCKENNA 120 15.00 10% 8.70    
SCR  ACTION PLAYER Oct03 Jun25       (norris mike)HESS SARA 123 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.