Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 24, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-3   EXA (5/8/2/3)-(5/8/2/3) 12 $2.00 $24.00  8-3 $29.72 $5.72 24%
CD-8   WIN (5/8/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00  8 $8.90 $2.90 48%
    DD (4/5/6/8)-(5/8/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00  4-8 $14.50 $2.50 21%
CD-9   WIN (6/8/9/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00  9 $25.26 $17.26 216%
    EXA (6/8/9/7)-(6/8/4/9/7) 16 $2.00 $32.00  9-7 $239.08 $207.08 647%
    TRI (6/8/9/7)-(6/8/4/9/7)-(6/8/4/9/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00  9-7-8 $197.88 $173.88 725%
    DD (5/8/10)-(6/8/9/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00  8-9 $79.72 $67.72 564%
    PK3 (4/5/6/8)-(5/8/10)-(6/8/9/7) 48 $3.00 $144  4-8-9 $761.46 $617.46 429%
    PK4 (1/5/10/9/8)-(4/5/6/8)-(5/8/10)-(6/8/9/7) 240 $0.50 $120  1/4-2/4/7-8-9 $243.62 $123.62 103%
Simulator Race results
 
CD-1   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:222 :45 :57     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  MY OWN 3 5 32 2nk   1½ 11 (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 11.49  
5  MASTER MULE 4 6 55 52¾   42½ 21 (correas ignaci)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 9% 10.20 5.72 P
7  LAMBO 6 3 2½ 1nk   2½ 31 (hartman chris)MORALES EDGAR 121 1.40 58% 0.70 0.76 S
1  HONEST AL 1 1 42½ 42¾   53 42¼ (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00 12% 7.20 3.46  
3  BOB'S CARROT 2 2 1½ 3.2   31 53¼ (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00 5.75  
6  PUTTING EAGLE 5 4 65 65¾   66 64 (von donn)ROCCO S 118 15.00 21.66  
SCR  SCOTTISH STORM               (dutrow e)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00    
 
CD-2   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 2 F PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:223 :461 :59     1:113   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  HAVE FAITH 5 7 74¼ 88   33½ 15 (stewart d)TORRES A 119 15.00 1.01  
2  MATTY'S BABY 2 1 1nk 2nk   12½ 25 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 10% 9.10 8.54 P
11  WANNA GO HOME 10 9 84¼ 44½   43½ 311½ (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 46% 1.20 8.14 S
7  WOODALL PASS 6 8 105¾ 98½   67½ 412½ (deville j)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00 39.92  
1  DALE 1 10 42 66½   78 514½ (wojczynski jus)SHEEHY DANNY 119 12.00 5% 19.00 49.34  
3  SYNOPTIC 3 2 2nk 1nk   22½ 615 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 20% 3.90 5.77  
8  NEWS TOO SERIOUS 7 4 31 32   55½ 716½ (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 119 20.00 49.78  
10  GOLD LADY 9 11 1112¼ 1112   912 818¾ (moreno ti)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00 29.30  
5  AUTHENTIC CHARM 4 3 62¾ 77½   1012½ 923¾ (wilkes r)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 8.02  
9  NONSTOP VINO 8 6 52½ 55   810½ 1028 (ennis john)ORTIZ JR 119 4.00 5% 19.00 9.78  
12  BISTINEAU BEAUTY 11 5 94¾ 109   1114½ 1131¾ (reed r)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00 17.55  
SCR  THE LONG EMBRACE               (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 119 8.00    
 
CD-3   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:222 :452 :58     1:11   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  IN AWE OF JUJU 8 4 33 22   1nk 13¼ (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 31% 2.20 1.39 W
3  GOLD DEL MAR 3 7 1½ 12   2nk 23¼ (salas mar)LEPAROUX R 121 12.00 5% 19.00 9.27 P
1  MISS TIFEYE 1 5 55 57   45 37 (baker james)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00 14.98 DH
4  BRIGHT LADY DAY 4 2 75½ 77¼   56 37 (jackson christ)ELLIOTT JANE 121 10.00 21.57 DH
5  SWEET NOTE 5 3 85¾ 67   66¼ 57½ (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50 35% 1.90 2.23  
7  MISS MAKENNA 7 1 43½ 45½   34½ 67½ (house gary)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 10.00 18.08  
2  I AM BEAUTIFUL 2 8 2½ 34½   76¼ 717¼ (moquett ronal)ORTIZ JR 121 3.00 7% 13.50 6.43  
6  GOING STREAKIN 6 6 65½ 89¾   812¼ 830¼ (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 9.59  
 
CD-4   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:23 :461 :574     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  SHADOW COAST 5 5 11 11   11½ 1½ (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.00 12% 7.40 1.12 W
4  RESTLESS RENEGADE 3 2 21 32   21½ 2½ (mcpeek kennet)ORTIZ JR 121 3.00 62% 0.60 1.48 P
1  SAINT SHANCE 1 8 52½ 21   34 36½ (shirer a)CEDILLO ABEL 121 6.00 5.21  
7  OR MAGIQUE 6 6 64 66½   58 47½ (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00 63.58  
3  SOCO AND LIME 2 3 42½ 55   46 59 (williamson b)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 10.00 5% 19.00 19.53  
9  GOLD FACTOR 8 4 31½ 43½   68 614¼ (pitts helen)GARCIA MARTIN 121 15.00 5% 19.00 49.00  
5  BERNIEDOTT 4 1 74¼ 78½   711½ 714¾ (king barr)LEPAROUX R 121 15.00 24.17  
8  ALL THE LUCK 7 7 84¼ 89   819½ 856 (foley greg)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 6.00 17.45  
SCR  MR ENTERTAINER               (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 5.00    
 
CD-5   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:222 :452 :574     1:104   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  BORN FLAWLESS 3 3 1½ 3½   1nk 1nk (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00 12.44  
11  LUDWIG 8 6 31 1nk   2nk 2nk (bauer phili)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 3.00 26% 2.80 0.99 P
8  KUNSHAN BRIDGE 6 4 52½ 51¾   31½ 31¾ (kantarmaci me)ORTIZ JR 121 3.50 20% 3.90 5.02 S
2  SUTHERLAND 1 2 42 62¼   41¾ 42½ (richard chris)MORALES EDGAR 121 5.00 3.08  
7  W W CRAZY 5 7 77 75¼   73¾ 52¾ (calhoun william)LANERIE J 121 12.00 13.33  
10  M B'S MUNNING 7 5 62½ 41½   53¼ 65¼ (gerteisen adam)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 14% 6.00 23.44  
4  HOMETOWN HERO 2 8 89 88¾   86¾ 78 (moreno ti)LEPAROUX R 121 30.00 62.86  
6  MAGIC CASTLE 4 1 2½ 2nk   63¾ 814 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 12.00 18% 4.50 8.95  
SCR  DR. SOULFIRE               (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 121 6.00    
SCR  DUTCH MILLS               (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 20.00    
SCR  TWIRLING ROSES               (rodriguez )LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00    
 
CD-6   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:17
See original race card.
:222 :453 :574     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOM CAT TUESDAY 1 3 41½ 31   1nk 12 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 30% 2.30 2.17 W
6  WOBBEGONG 5 4 2½ 1½   2nk 22 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 6.00 6.60  
3  SKYLER 3 1 1½ 2½   32 37¾ (foster eric)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 6.00 9.63  
9  SAND STREET 8 7 63¼ 43   46 414 (beckman whitwor)SAEZ LUIS 121 10.00 13% 6.80 3.54  
2  JINXZI 2 2 84¼ 86½   711 516¾ (moquett ron)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 4.00 14.96  
5  OPEN COURT 4 9 98¾ 99½   813½ 617½ (caramori caio)CURTIS BEN 121 12.00 13% 6.80 22.52  
8  LOST IN THE SAUCE 7 5 53 65½   69 718¾ (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 124 12.00 5% 19.00 19.68  
7  MCMUSIC 6 8 74¼ 75½   58½ 819¼ (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 121 6.00 3.23  
10  COLONEL COMPTON 9 6 31½ 54   915 929¾ (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 10.00 13% 6.80 15.13  
SCR  PRINCE DAY               (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 10.00    
 
CD-7   09/24/2025 5610ft DIRT RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:48
See original race card.
:24 :472 1:11 1:36   1:424   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  DRAGOON GUARD 3 3 2½ 1½ 11½ 13 14¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 1.80 47% 1.10 0.72 W
5  BENDOOG 4 4 54½ 42½ 34 23 24¼ (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 4.00 22% 3.50 2.79 P
3  HONOR MARIE 2 6 66½ 66½ 66½ 45½ 36¾ (beckman whitwo)CURTIS BEN 124 5.00 5.22  
6  BEST ACTOR 5 2 42½ 53 56 55¾ 47 (moger jr)MACHADO LUAN 124 3.50 9% 9.70 9.88  
1  SPEED BIAS 1 5 32 32 44½ 67¾ 511¾ (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 124 30.00 23.96  
8  NOTARY 6 1 1½ 2½ 21½ 35½ 624¾ (hernandez armando)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00 5% 19.00 11.85  
SCR  TRADEMARK               (oliver vict)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 15.00    
SCR  WARRIOR JOHNY               (bauer philip )ORTIZ JR 124 6.00    
 
CD-8   09/24/2025 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
See original race card.
:221 :451 :572     1:04   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  BIG TROUBLE 3 4 42½ 32   1½ 14¾ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.50 28% 2.60 3.45 W
14  MILA CANDY 6 2 2nk 1½   2½ 24¾ (kantarmaci mertka)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00 4.50  
12  SPEIGHTER WOMAN 5 6 66 65½   44½ 36 (lovell mich)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 30.00 15.78  
5  CARIBBEAN WIND 2 1 1nk 2½   31½ 46 (ward a)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 47% 1.10 1.01  
10  DEBT FREE 4 5 54 54½   54½ 57¾ (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 6.00 5% 19.00 4.44  
2  PARTY PAULINE 1 3 32 43½   66 616½ (hartman chri)MONCADA IRVING 121 10.00 14.05  
SCR  LOVELY EMMA               (eurton peter)CURTIS BEN 118 10.00    
SCR  MECHAYA               (divito p)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
SCR  PERFECT FIGURE               (ward wesl)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 6.00    
SCR  I'M A COOKIE LOVER               (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00    
SCR  GRADE A               (o'dwyer jer)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00    
SCR  COTILLARD               (seglin e)MEZA JJ 118 30.00    
SCR  CAT EYES (IRE)               (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 121 5.00    
SCR  SMALL HOLLOW               (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 30.00    
SCR  BEAUTIFUL CRAZY               (d'angelo jos)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
SCR  BUNRATTY MANOR (IRE)               (arnold ge)TORRES A 118 12.00    
 
CD-9   09/24/2025 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($12.5K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:50
See original race card.
:233 :473 1:124 1:384   1:521   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  TWIRLING TROILLET 9 1 2½ 2½ 1½ 1½ 11 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 5% 19.00 11.63 W
7  HUGE BIGLY 7 9 85¾ 94¾ 51¾ 2½ 21 (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00 5% 19.00 15.87 P
8  HEY BOSS 8 10 107¾ 105¾ 82¾ 43 33½ (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 3.00 23% 3.30 1.68 S
5  LEMON DROP SHOT 5 6 96¼ 84¾ 41½ 31 43¾ (bahena fern)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 12.00 22.20  
6  METATRON'S MUSE 6 8 73¾ 73¾ 93¾ 55½ 55¼ (hartman chris)ORTIZ JR 122 4.00 51% 1.00 1.92  
2  PEOPLE FORCE 2 3 31½ 31½ 72¼ 66 67¼ (tracy tann)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00 19.01  
3  LIAM THE BRAVE 3 7 62¼ 62¼ 62¼ 76 78½ (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 12.00 42.75  
10  SHOT OF COURAGE 10 4 51¾ 41½ 3½ 86½ 812¾ (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 122 5.00 7.70  
4  RUNWITHHEART 4 5 41½ 52 104¼ 912½ 924¼ (holsapple hu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00 ★ 9.54  
1  FORGE IN FIRE 1 2 1½ 1½ 2½ 1025½ 10100 (alvarez nery)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00 28.46  
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.