Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 24, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/1/5)-(7/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/1/5)-(7/1/5)-(7/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/1/5)-(11/3/2/9/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (7/1/5)-(11/3/2/9/1)-(5/8/2/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (11/3/2/9/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/3/2/9/1)-(11/3/2/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/3/2/9/1)-(11/3/2/9/1)-(11/3/2/9/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/3/2/9/1)-(5/8/2/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (11/3/2/9/1)-(5/8/2/3)-(4/6/3/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-3   WIN (5/8/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/8/2/3)-(5/8/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/8/2/3)-(5/8/2/3)-(5/8/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/8/2/3)-(4/6/3/9) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/8/2/3)-(4/6/3/9)-(11/8/6/10) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/6/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/3/9)-(4/6/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/3/9)-(4/6/3/9)-(4/6/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/3/9)-(11/8/6/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/6/3/9)-(11/8/6/10)-(1/5/9/10/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-5   WIN (11/8/6/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/8/6/10)-(11/8/6/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (11/8/6/10)-(11/8/6/10)-(11/8/6/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (11/8/6/10)-(1/5/9/10/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (11/8/6/10)-(1/5/9/10/8)-(4/5/6/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/5/9/10/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/5/9/10/8)-(1/5/9/10/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/5/9/10/8)-(1/5/9/10/8)-(1/5/9/10/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/5/9/10/8)-(4/5/6/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/5/9/10/8)-(4/5/6/8)-(5/8/10) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/5/6/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/6/8)-(4/5/6/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/6/8)-(4/5/6/8)-(4/5/6/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/6/8)-(5/8/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/6/8)-(5/8/10)-(6/8/9/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (5/8/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/8/10)-(5/8/10) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/8/10)-(5/8/10)-(5/8/10) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/8/10)-(6/8/9/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-9   WIN (6/8/9/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/8/9/7)-(6/8/4/9/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/8/9/7)-(6/8/4/9/7)-(6/8/4/9/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HONEST AL Aug30 Jun08 May09 Apr12 Aug04 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00 12% 7.20    
SCR  SCOTTISH STORM Aug20 Jul20 Jun28 May24 Apr19 (dutrow e)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00    
3  BOB'S CARROT Aug28 Aug14 Jun22 May18 Jun20 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00    
4  MY OWN Jul26 Jul03 Dec06 Jul29   (foster eri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00    
5  MASTER MULE Aug26 Jul24 Jun17 May12 Nov30 (correas ignaci)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 9% 10.20    
6  PUTTING EAGLE Aug03 Jun27 Jun11 May02 Apr06 (von donn)ROCCO S 118 15.00    
7  LAMBO Aug03 Jun28 Jun12 May03 Mar28 (hartman chris)MORALES EDGAR 121 1.40 58% 0.70    
 
CD-2   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DALE         (wojczynski jus)SHEEHY DANNY 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  MATTY'S BABY         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 10% 9.10    
3  SYNOPTIC Aug11         (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 20% 3.90    
SCR  THE LONG EMBRACE         (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 119 8.00    
5  AUTHENTIC CHARM Aug31 Aug11       (wilkes r)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00    
6  HAVE FAITH         (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
7  WOODALL PASS Aug30 Jul25 Jul05 Jun14 May25 (deville j)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00    
8  NEWS TOO SERIOUS         (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 119 20.00    
9  NONSTOP VINO Jul20 Jun18 Jun01     (ennis john)ORTIZ JR 119 4.00 5% 19.00    
10  GOLD LADY         (moreno ti)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
11  WANNA GO HOME Sep15 Aug11 Jun16 May26 May03 (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.50 46% 1.20    
12  BISTINEAU BEAUTY Aug18 Jul26       (reed r)GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00    
 
CD-3   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($30K) Purse ($62K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS TIFEYE Nov28 Oct31 Oct09 Sep15 Aug25 (baker james)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00    
2  I AM BEAUTIFUL May15 Apr12 Feb17 Aug19   (moquett ronal)ORTIZ JR 121 3.00 7% 13.50    
3  GOLD DEL MAR Sep12 Aug02 Jul14 Jun15 May20 (salas ma)RODRIGUEZ A 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  BRIGHT LADY DAY Sep08 Aug01 Jul04 Jun21 Feb13 (jackson christ)ELLIOTT JANE 121 10.00    
5  SWEET NOTE Aug16 Jun18 May22 Mar07 Jan01 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50 35% 1.90    
6  GOING STREAKIN Sep02 Aug15 Jul30 Apr05 Mar15 (hamm timothy)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
7  MISS MAKENNA Aug18 Jul19 Jun25 May19 Apr27 (house gary)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 10.00    
8  IN AWE OF JUJU Apr04 Mar16 Mar01 Jan31 Dec28 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 31% 2.20    
 
CD-4   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAINT SHANCE Aug23 Aug01 Mar27     (shirer a)CEDILLO ABEL 121 6.00    
SCR  MR ENTERTAINER Aug09         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 5.00    
3  SOCO AND LIME Aug22 Jul03 Jun13 May25 Mar08 (williamson b)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  RESTLESS RENEGADE Aug16 Jul13 Feb15 Dec29 Nov23 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 62% 0.60    
5  BERNIEDOTT Aug21 Jul15 Jun25 Jun13 May08 (king barr)LEPAROUX R 121 15.00    
6  SHADOW COAST Aug01 Jun06 May15 Apr26 Mar12 (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.00 12% 7.40    
7  OR MAGIQUE Mar26 Feb21 Feb06     (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00    
8  ALL THE LUCK Aug25 May25 Mar12 Feb12 Nov22 (foley greg)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 6.00    
9  GOLD FACTOR Sep09 Aug12 Jul20 Aug31   (pitts helen)GARCIA MARTIN 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-5   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  DUTCH MILLS Apr13 Feb16 Jan19 Oct09 Aug30 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 20.00    
2  SUTHERLAND Sep12 Jul05 Jun12 May10 Mar08 (richard chris)MORALES EDGAR 121 5.00    
SCR  TWIRLING ROSES Aug14 Jul20 Jul03 Jun05 May25 (rodriguez )LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 15.00    
4  HOMETOWN HERO Aug07 Jun26 Jun04 May16 Apr25 (moreno ti)LEPAROUX R 121 30.00    
5  BORN FLAWLESS Sep12 Jul06 Jun18 May29 May02 (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00    
6  MAGIC CASTLE Jul03 May03 Apr14 Apr01 Jan15 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 12.00 18% 4.50    
7  W W CRAZY Sep12 Aug22 Jul13 Jun05 May16 (calhoun william)LANERIE J 121 12.00    
8  KUNSHAN BRIDGE Aug19 Jul06 Jun14 May16 May03 (kantarmaci me)ORTIZ JR 121 3.50 20% 3.90    
SCR  DR. SOULFIRE May02 Mar22 Mar14 Jan17 Nov22 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 121 6.00    
10  M B'S MUNNING Aug17 Jun21 May31 May17 Mar07 (gerteisen adam)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00 14% 6.00    
11  LUDWIG Jul12 May26 May01 Mar08 Feb22 (bauer phili)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 3.00 26% 2.80    
 
CD-6   09/24/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOM CAT TUESDAY Aug16 Jul14 Jun07 May16 Apr06 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 30% 2.30    
2  JINXZI Mar01         (moquett ron)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 4.00    
3  SKYLER Aug22 Jul26 Jul03 Mar07 Feb15 (foster eric)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 6.00    
SCR  PRINCE DAY Sep21 Oct10       (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 10.00    
5  OPEN COURT         (caramori caio)CURTIS BEN 121 12.00 13% 6.80    
6  WOBBEGONG Aug17 Jun27       (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 121 6.00    
7  MCMUSIC Sep03 Aug14 Jul10 Jun16 May12 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 121 6.00    
8  LOST IN THE SAUCE May15 Feb13       (foley greg)CANNON DECLAN 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  SAND STREET         (beckman whitwor)SAEZ LUIS 121 10.00 13% 6.80    
10  COLONEL COMPTON         (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 10.00 13% 6.80    
 
CD-7   09/24/2025 5610ft DIRT RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPEED BIAS Jul05 Jun18 Apr30 Mar22 Feb28 (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 124 30.00    
SCR  TRADEMARK Sep19 Aug22 Jul26 Jul08 Jun14 (oliver vict)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 15.00    
3  HONOR MARIE Jul04 Apr30 Mar29 Aug24 Jun08 (beckman whitwo)CURTIS BEN 124 5.00    
4  DRAGOON GUARD Aug28 May22 Sep21 Aug04 Jul06 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 1.80 47% 1.10    
5  BENDOOG Aug19 Jul04 May04 Mar29 Mar14 (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 4.00 22% 3.50    
6  BEST ACTOR Aug28 Aug12 Jun29 Jun01 May03 (moger jr)MACHADO LUAN 124 3.50 9% 9.70    
SCR  WARRIOR JOHNY Jul05 Jun07 Apr30 Apr06 Feb15 (bauer philip )ORTIZ JR 124 6.00    
8  NOTARY Aug25 Feb24 Jan26 Jan06 Oct12 (hernandez armando)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-8   09/24/2025 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MECHAYA Aug28 May31 May10 Oct27 Oct04 (divito p)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
2  PARTY PAULINE Aug09 May30 May15     (hartman chri)MONCADA IRVING 121 10.00    
SCR  LOVELY EMMA Aug22 Jul06 May10 Dec19 Oct20 (eurton peter)CURTIS BEN 118 10.00    
SCR  SMALL HOLLOW Aug25 Jul16 Apr17     (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 30.00    
5  CARIBBEAN WIND Jul12 Nov15 Oct19 Apr24   (ward a)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 47% 1.10    
SCR  COTILLARD Sep07 Aug04 Jul04 Jun11 May15 (seglin e)MEZA JJ 118 30.00    
SCR  BUNRATTY MANOR (IRE) Aug28 May10 Mar29 Mar09 Jan16 (arnold ge)TORRES A 118 12.00    
8  BIG TROUBLE Apr16 Mar04 Feb01 Nov22 Oct20 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 4.50 28% 2.60    
SCR  GRADE A Aug28 Aug04 Jul06 Jun08 May02 (o'dwyer jer)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00    
10  DEBT FREE Aug23 Jul14 May15 Apr07 Mar01 (devaux cher)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PERFECT FIGURE Aug02 Jun15 May15 Nov02 Sep20 (ward wesl)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 6.00    
12  SPEIGHTER WOMAN Aug28 Jul26 Jun28 May31 May02 (lovell mich)ALVARADO JUNIOR 121 30.00    
SCR  CAT EYES (IRE) Aug06 Jun19 Feb22 Jan05 Nov30 (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 121 5.00    
14  MILA CANDY Aug30 Jul19 Jun08 May09 Apr18 (kantarmaci mertka)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
SCR  BEAUTIFUL CRAZY May25 Mar27 Oct26 Sep28 Jul20 (d'angelo jos)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
SCR  I'M A COOKIE LOVER Jul19 Jun27 May17 Mar13 Feb23 (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 20.00    
 
CD-9   09/24/2025 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($12.5K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORGE IN FIRE Sep04 Aug02 Jun27 Jun08 Apr26 (alvarez nery)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00    
2  PEOPLE FORCE Jan01 Dec07 Nov11 Oct29 Oct07 (tracy tann)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00    
3  LIAM THE BRAVE Aug08 Jun25 Jun05 May16 Apr19 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 12.00    
4  RUNWITHHEART Jul19 Jun25 May11 Apr08 Aug25 (holsapple hu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00 ★    
5  LEMON DROP SHOT Aug09 Jul19 Jul01 May29 Mar15 (bahena fern)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 12.00    
6  METATRON'S MUSE Aug08 Jun25 Jun05 May23 Apr26 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 51% 1.00    
7  HUGE BIGLY Aug27 Aug08 Jun06 May23 May03 (shorter a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  HEY BOSS Aug16 Jul19 Jun20 Jun05 May03 (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 3.00 23% 3.30    
9  TWIRLING TROILLET Sep01 Aug01 Jun20 May16 Apr29 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  SHOT OF COURAGE Jun25 Jun05 May03 Apr11 Mar30 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 122 5.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.