Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Churchill Downs
Sunday - May 25, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-1   WIN (6/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/2)-(6/4/2)-(6/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/2)-(8/2/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/4/2)-(8/2/1)-(1/6/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-2   WIN (8/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/2/1)-(8/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/2/1)-(8/2/1)-(8/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/2/1)-(1/6/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (8/2/1)-(1/6/2)-(5/4/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/2)-(1/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/2)-(1/6/2)-(1/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/6/2)-(5/4/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/6/2)-(5/4/3)-(8/4/6/11/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-4   WIN (5/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/3)-(5/4/6/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/4/3)-(5/4/6/3)-(5/4/6/3) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/4/3)-(8/4/6/11/1) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/4/3)-(8/4/6/11/1)-(10/11/3/8/12) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-5   WIN (8/4/6/11/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/4/6/11/1)-(8/4/6/11/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/4/6/11/1)-(8/4/6/11/1)-(8/4/6/11/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/4/6/11/1)-(10/11/3/8/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (8/4/6/11/1)-(10/11/3/8/12)-(1/8/7/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-6   WIN (10/11/3/8/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/11/3/8/12)-(10/11/3/8/9/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (10/11/3/8/12)-(10/11/3/8/9/12)-(10/11/3/8/9/12) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (10/11/3/8/12)-(1/8/7/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/11/3/8/12)-(1/8/7/4)-(6/7/1/9/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (1/8/7/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/8/7/4)-(1/8/7/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/8/7/4)-(1/8/7/4)-(1/8/7/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/8/7/4)-(6/7/1/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/8/7/4)-(6/7/1/9/4)-(12/11/4/7/9) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (6/7/1/9/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/7/1/9/4)-(6/7/1/9/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/7/1/9/4)-(6/7/1/9/4)-(6/7/1/9/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/7/1/9/4)-(12/11/4/7/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (6/7/1/9/4)-(12/11/4/7/9)-(3/4/2/5/1) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-9   WIN (12/11/4/7/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/11/4/7/9)-(12/11/4/7/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (12/11/4/7/9)-(12/11/4/7/9)-(12/11/4/7/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (12/11/4/7/9)-(3/4/2/5/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-10   WIN (3/4/2/5/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/4/2/5/1)-(3/4/2/5/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/4/2/5/1)-(3/4/2/5/1)-(3/4/2/5/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CD-1   05/25/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($60K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  OUTRAGEOUSLY Mar08 Jan05 Dec01 Nov03 Apr30 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 0.80    
ADIVA May02 Apr12 Mar30 Mar09 Feb16 (santamaria carlo)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 11% 7.90    
LUCKY PHOENIX Apr30 Apr16 Mar15 Feb28 Jan27 (herrell d)FLACO ARCELIO 118 10.00    
THE PRINCESS SAYS Apr30 Mar21 Mar01 Nov16 Sep27 (cunningham j)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00 16% 5.30    
CALTHA Jul17 Jun29 Jun21 May25 Feb03 (bahena is)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 6.00    
POSH PLAYDAY Mar13 Feb05 Dec12 Oct19 Aug20 (wismer glenn)MONCADA IRVING 113 3.00 44% 1.30    
 
CD-2   05/25/2025 2970ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($62K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LITTLE TINKER ELLE         (mccutchen jaso)CEDILLO ABEL 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
HOOTDATLADY         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
SCR  DIABLO SHIRAZ         (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 6.00    
CINNAMON SUGAR (IRE) Apr25 Apr11       (hancock a)ORTIZ L 119 4.00    
ELITE MISS         (chap)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 15.00    
SCR  NONSTOP VINO         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 8.00    
WOODALL PASS May08 Apr30       (pomier chasey)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
ASHKENAZI Apr10         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 119 2.00 42% 1.40    
 
CD-3   05/25/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($86K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOLDEN GLIDER Apr24 Mar09 Feb16 Dec22 Nov22 (casse mar)TORRES A 118 3.00 40% 1.50    
PIKE PLACE Apr11 Mar15 Feb17 Jan19 Nov28 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
LAUGHING BOY Feb28 Jan05 Dec22 Nov16 Apr20 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 118 2.50    
BEYOND BEST May01 Apr11 Feb17 Jan24 Nov21 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 4.50    
SCR  MANTA REY Apr11 Mar22 Mar09 Jan23 Jan04 (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
INEXORABLE May03 Jun19 May05 Mar30 Mar17 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 6.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  PROTONIC POWER Jun09 May19 Apr27 Apr06 Mar09 (hernandez armand)CURTIS BEN 118 12.00    
LUCENCY May06 Feb08 Jan04 Dec01 Nov13 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00    
 
CD-4   05/25/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($60K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  JUILLIARD Apr24 Mar16 Feb24 Jan04 Dec14 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 118 12.00    
METALLIC MAN Apr24 Apr13 Mar14 Jan19 Nov29 (jacobson david)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 6.00    
SLIPPIN JIMMY Aug31 Aug23 Aug01 Jul19 Nov04 (mccutchen jaso)CEDILLO ABEL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SPEITFUL SAM Feb12 Dec13 Nov05 Sep13 Aug07 (londono genev)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 25% 3.00    
ESPIONAGE Apr26 Apr06 Mar22 Mar08 Feb17 (wittek karyn)ELLIOTT JANE 118 5.00 43% 1.30    
COWAN Apr04 Apr27 Mar03 Feb19 Feb03 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 118 3.00    
YES I'M A BEAST May10 Nov16 Oct12 Sep13 Jul28 (crichton roha)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 4.00    
BUSK May05 Apr11 Mar21 Mar08 Feb22 (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 123 2.50    
 
CD-5   05/25/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WATCH ME NOW         (desormeaux kei)CURTIS BEN 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KING OF GOTHAM Apr13         (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 12.00    
SOCO AND LIME Mar08 Jul21 Jun21     (williamson bri)CEDILLO ABEL 124 15.00    
KENSINGTON COVE Apr27 Apr18 Mar28     (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 119 6.00 24% 3.20    
ATOMIC SNOW         (pittman bonn)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 20.00    
ALL THE LUCK Mar12 Feb12 Nov22 Oct30 Sep05 (foley gre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00 8% 10.80    
ROMANTIC LEAD May10 Apr13 Sep05 Aug10   (wittek karyn)ACHARD ALEX 124 10.00    
OUTDOOR CAT Apr26         (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 25% 3.00    
IMPERIAL RULER Apr11 Nov30       (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00    
10  GOLD GUNNER         (simms jr)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
11  NICO'S DERBY RUN Feb21 Jan25 Dec27     (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 8% 11.80    
 
CD-6   05/25/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TWOLATEBABYDOLL (FR)         (stall m)GRAHAM J 118 10.00    
  (by RECOLETOS out of SIGN OF LIFE by LEMON DROP KID)
CAVIAR BREAKFAST Apr10         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of WILDCAT GOLD by FOREST WILDCAT)
GOLDENAGEACTRESS Apr17 Mar22 Feb27 Feb01 Jan04 (block chris)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 6% 14.80    
  (by STREET SENSE out of APPEALING AUDREY by MALIBU MOON)
MAPLE SYRUP         (mott rile)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
  (by OGYGIAN out of BANDORE by FORTY NINER)
WILDFIRE PRINCESS Apr24         (hess b)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of GO WEST MARIE by WESTERN FAME)
SWEET MACKENZIE Apr17 Mar23       (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of ICE CREAM by BERNARDINI)
PLAY WITH MAGIC Apr11         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 118 8.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of STAGE MAGIC by LAOMEDONTE)
CRAWFORD May02 Mar16 Feb14     (oliver victori)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of TAPPED by TAPIT)
GOOD GAME Apr12 Mar09 Feb08 Dec29 Nov24 (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00    
  (by GAME WINNER out of BRAZEN PERSUASION by INDIAN CHARLIE)
10  OAK ALLEY Apr17 Mar09       (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 38% 1.60    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of VAMO A GALUPIAR by PROUD CITIZEN)
11  ATHALIAH Apr23 Apr07 Feb23     (weaver george)LANERIE J 118 5.00 30% 2.30    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of DIVINE ELEGANCE by UNCLE MO)
12  GROVE CITY SUNSET Apr12 Oct19 Aug31 Aug04 Jul06 (danner kelse)MONCADA IRVING 113 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of SHEZA SWEET LEMON by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  MISS PHARAOH Apr17 Feb27 Jan30 Dec26 Oct12 (sims phil)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 6.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of MISS CHALLENGE by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  KIMBER SPICE Apr24 Mar21 Jun15 May17 Apr18 (lovell michell)DOYLE SOPHIE 125 8.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SWEET PROMISES by BERNARDINI)
SCR  THERAVADA Apr12 Feb23       (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
  (by TAPIT out of CAMBODIA by WAR FRONT)
SCR  SUN LIGHTNING May02 Apr11       (ortiz joh)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 125 20.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of GREENFIELD D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
CD-7   05/25/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RIVALRY Apr29 Mar28 Mar02 Mar14 Jan28 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 125 1.60 44% 1.30    
ONE FOR MY BROTHER May10 Apr16 Mar29 Mar08 Feb14 (vosler eugene )SAEZ GABRIEL 123 15.00    
CRIMINAL DEFENSE Apr26 Apr16 Mar21 Feb28 Feb08 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 123 30.00    
REDFIELD Apr26 Mar15 Dec18 Nov02 Oct19 (watkins m)MCKEE J 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  LEND IT TEWMEY May02 Mar14 Feb17 Jan26 Nov20 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 123 3.00    
SCR  SUTHERLAND May10 Mar08 Jan24 Dec22 Nov23 (richard chris)BEJARANO R 123 6.00    
TIVERTON (GB) May23 May10 Apr30 Mar28 Mar22 (salas mar)PEDROZA MARCELINO 123 12.00 13% 6.60    
XANDER May05 Mar06 Feb05 Dec13 Jul23 (davis christop)ORTIZ L 125 2.50 21% 3.80    
PARTYVICIOUS Apr25 Apr09 Mar14 Feb22 Feb06 (gonzalez reina)ROMAN A 123 20.00    
 
CD-8   05/25/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($127K) 3 ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
U DEVIL YOU Apr24 Jun23       (ortiz alexan)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 18% 4.50    
NICHOLAI Apr19 Mar29       (vance tho)TORRES A 120 15.00    
AMOR PATRIAE May02 Mar14 Dec29 Dec07 Oct23 (divito p)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
SHEPHERD Apr26 Apr08 Mar08 Feb23 Jan25 (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
MISSED THE TURN Mar30 Mar09 Nov30 Oct11 Jul25 (londono genevi)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
DAPPER MOON Mar22 Mar01 Feb08 Jan18 Dec19 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 21% 3.80    
FURIO May03 Mar22 Feb17 Jan20 Sep12 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 2.50 21% 3.80    
THRILLA Apr08 Mar08 Feb08 Jan11 Dec21 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 10.00    
MISSISSIPPI MAN Apr20 Mar20       (catalano )DETTORI LANFRANCO 120 12.00 17% 4.80    
10  JACK'S PROMISE May03 Apr06 Feb28 Feb15 Jan11 (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 12.00    
11  C K WONDER Apr24 Mar09 Nov30 Nov02 Oct06 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
 
CD-9   05/25/2025 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LIAR'S POKER Feb12 Jan26 Nov29 Oct05 Aug30 (londono genevi)MILLER CHASE 122 30.00    
TUT'S REVENGE May01 Mar05 Sep29 Sep07 Aug03 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 122 6.00    
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA Apr07 Feb16 Jan25 Jul05 May27 (medina ro)TORRES A 122 30.00    
AK SAR BEN DERBY Nov23 Oct06 Aug25 Jul22 Jun08 (ortiz al)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
SANTORINI Apr18 Feb15 Jan25 Dec20 Jun01 (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00    
ASPENITE Sep08 Jul13 May31 May01 Apr07 (asmussen )DETTORI LANFRANCO 122 12.00    
NANTASKET BEACH Apr26 Mar29 Feb27 Jan11 Dec01 (robson la)LEPAROUX R 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
OCEAN POINTE Apr24 Mar14 Feb15 Sep30 Sep17 (estvanko richar)ACHARD ALEX 122 20.00    
YAMATO Apr08 Mar07 Feb15 Jan25 Dec28 (esquivel jesus)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
10  ALDER May04 Feb23 Jan31 Jan04 Dec06 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 122 20.00    
11  THE PROCESS Oct03 Aug30 Jul27 Jun13 Mar09 (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 122 8.00 26% 2.90    
12  MOUNTAIN BEAR (IRE) Oct05 Nov03       (ward a)LANERIE J 122 0.80 39% 1.50    
 
CD-10   05/25/2025 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3 F PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FLASH WEAR May08 Mar16 Feb23 Jan31 Nov30 (vance d)LANERIE J 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
NEXT UP Apr26 Mar14       (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00 14% 6.10    
ZAGHRUTA Apr12 Mar09 Feb20 Jan05 Dec06 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 36% 1.80    
TAKE CHARGE OMAHA Apr24 Mar12       (foster er)TORRES A 120 4.00 30% 2.40    
MANAGE XPECTATIONS Mar20 Feb23 Jan20 Dec19   (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
ITWILLBEFUN Apr18 Feb17 Jan20 Dec29 Nov28 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 120 6.00    
AMADORA'S EMPIRE Mar04 Feb08 Jan16 Dec15   (walsh p)CURTIS BEN 120 12.00    
TALENT SHOW May02 Feb28 Jan16 Dec18   (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ MARIO 120 15.00    
PRINCESS NY May08 Apr11 Feb27 Jan12   (davis christop)DOYLE SOPHIE 120 15.00    
10  MIZMALICE May11 Apr07 Feb26 Dec26 Nov15 (hiles rick)BEJARANO R 120 6.00    
11  AVISO Apr12 Feb23 Feb01 Jan04 Dec16 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.