Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - April 20, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (7/2/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/6/1)-(7/2/6/1/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/2/6/1)-(7/2/6/1/8)-(7/2/6/1/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/2/6/1)-(8/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (7/2/6/1)-(8/2)-(5) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
AQU-2   WIN (8/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/2)-(8/2/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (8/2)-(8/2/1)-(8/2/1) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (8/2)-(5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    PK3 (8/2)-(5)-(7/6/5/9) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
AQU-3   WIN (5) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (5)-(5/3/2/1) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    TRI (5)-(5/3/2/1)-(5/3/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5)-(7/6/5/9) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5)-(7/6/5/9)-(2/9/1/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
AQU-4   WIN (7/6/5/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/5/9)-(7/6/5/9/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/6/5/9)-(7/6/5/9/3)-(7/6/5/9/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/6/5/9)-(2/9/1/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/6/5/9)-(2/9/1/5/8)-(3/10/4/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
AQU-5   WIN (2/9/1/5/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/9/1/5/8)-(2/9/1/5/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/9/1/5/8)-(2/9/1/5/8)-(2/9/1/5/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/9/1/5/8)-(3/10/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/9/1/5/8)-(3/10/4/6)-(3/1) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
AQU-6   WIN (3/10/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/10/4/6)-(3/10/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/10/4/6)-(3/10/4/6)-(3/10/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/10/4/6)-(3/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (3/10/4/6)-(3/1)-(2/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
AQU-7   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(1/3/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (3/1)-(1/3/2)-(1/3/2) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (3/1)-(2/10) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
AQU-8   WIN (2/10) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/10)-(2/10/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (2/10)-(2/10/3)-(2/10/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   04/20/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($39K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GIRL OF TOSCONOVA Mar31 Feb19 Nov10 Oct28 Jul03 (kanta)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 12.00 6% 15.00    
2  SCOTT ALAIA Jun03 May01 Mar06 Feb12   (nevin michell)FRANCO MANUEL 120 4.00 26% 2.80    
3  KEEN DANCER Apr13 Mar31 Mar24 Feb19 Feb09 (persau)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 12.00    
4  ICY REPLY Mar25 Mar17 Mar05 Feb26 Feb04 (ferraro jame)CASTELLANO J 120 6.00    
SCR  TWICE SMITTEN Apr13 Mar17 Jun15     (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.50    
6  BEAUTIFUL KAREN Apr13 Feb19 Jan29 Jan15 Dec03 (tosc)HUAYAS (JASON) 118 6.00 14% 6.40    
7  GREATEST LOVE Mar17 Feb26 Jan20 Dec08 Jul21 (miceli michael)CANCEL ERIC 120 2.00 33% 2.00    
8  TRADE SECRET Mar24 Feb19 Jan15 Dec10 Nov13 (brown br)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 15.00 ★    
9  GRINGOTTS Mar31 Feb17 Dec30 Dec04 Nov04 (younghans wi)HARKIE K 120 20.00    
 
AQU-2   04/20/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($50K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRASH TALKER Mar19 Apr07 Mar05 Feb20 Jan08 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 120 6.00 ★    
2  RISK PROFILE Mar12 Feb09 Jan14 Dec04 Oct07 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 123 8.00 16% 5.20    
3  JALEN JOURNEY Mar04 Feb24 Feb13 Feb04 Jan16 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 6.00    
SCR  AMERICAN GENTLEMAN Mar24 Feb18 Feb10 Dec03 Nov05 (rodriguez g)ALVARADO JUNIOR 123 5.00    
5  STRIKING SPEED Mar03 Feb12 Feb02 Jan19 Jan01 (baker)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 8.00    
6  CHOWDA Jan21 Dec04 May15 Apr20 Mar27 (scia)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 20.00    
SCR  ALLABOUTTHEMONEY Mar24 Mar15 Feb18 Feb11 Dec30 (jacobson dav)CASTELLANO J 123 4.50 12% 7.30    
8  BRONX BOMBER Apr01 Mar11 Feb02 Jan01 Dec02 (kantarma)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 12.00 21% 3.70    
SCR  GLORY ROAD Apr06 Mar25 Mar12 Feb09 Jan01 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 123 2.50 23% 3.30    
 
AQU-3   04/20/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($88K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  STAGE LEFT Mar24 Mar12 Jan22 Jan01 Nov25 (jacobson dav)CASTELLANO J 120 8.00 ★    
SCR  SYNTHESIS Feb05 Jan28 Dec09 Nov26 Sep30 (jacobson dav)CASTELLANO J 120 8.00    
2  MR PHIL Aug10 Jun10 May22 Apr21 Mar27 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 118 3.00 ★    
3  WENDELL FONG Mar04 Jan29 Jan04 Nov21 Oct24 (lynch nat)VARGAS A 120 10.00 ★    
4  TOPS THE CHART Dec06 Oct25 Oct04 Aug25 Jul18 (duarte jr)DAVIS DYLAN 120 12.00    
5  RUNNINSONOFAGUN Mar04 Nov26 Oct29 Sep24 Aug27 (toscano t)CARMOUCHE K 120 0.80 72% 0.40    
6  BIG ENGINE Feb18 Feb10 Jan21 Dec30 Nov25 (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 4.50    
 
AQU-4   04/20/2023 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHAYMYNAME Apr02 Mar05 Nov06 Oct06 Sep28 (chichakly amir)RICHARDS G 118 50.00    
2  ACCEL ROSE Mar31 Mar04       (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 118 10.00    
3  OAK LOVES A FIGHT Nov26 Oct08 Sep24 Aug12 Jul17 (noda orl)GOMEZ ANTONIO 126 8.00 ★    
4  NIGHTSABER (GB) Jan22 Dec18 Nov06 Oct08 Sep22 (de horac)CASTELLANO J 118 5.00    
5  JET CITY WOMAN Mar04 Feb04       (dutrow anthony )CANCEL ERIC 118 3.50 19% 4.30    
6  KARA PARA Feb12 Jan28 Dec16 Nov18 Nov04 (ryerson jam)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 6.00 21% 3.80    
7  ELECTORATE (IRE) Dec28 Jan01       (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 126 2.50 32% 2.20    
8  WELCOMETOMYWORLD Apr02 Dec18 Nov25 Nov06 Sep15 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 118 8.00    
9  MY INNER VOICE Mar31 Feb17       (diprima grego)SILVERA RUBEN 118 20.00 5% 17.30    
10  GEOMETRIQUE Jan15 Dec11 Oct14 Aug21 Jun30 (riba)HUAYAS (JASON) 121 12.00    
 
AQU-5   04/20/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NORGAY Apr01 Mar17 Feb19 Feb02 Jan19 (aren)HUAYAS (JASON) 122 6.00 12% 7.30    
2  SALTO DE TIGRE Apr01 Mar25 Feb03 Dec30 Dec16 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 127 2.50 30% 2.40    
SCR  SON OF AN EX Mar18 Mar10 Feb18 Feb12 Jan26 (chin peter)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 118 30.00    
SCR  WINNING CONNECTION Apr02 Mar11 Jan19 Dec17 Dec01 (reynolds patric)DAVIS DYLAN 120 15.00    
5  MANDATORY Mar24 Feb19 Jan29 Dec18 Nov26 (kimmel)MARAGH RAMSAY 125 4.00 8% 10.80    
6  ACHILLES HEEL Mar17 Feb19 Jan28 Jan07 Dec02 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 125 10.00    
7  BREADMAN Mar30 Feb18 Dec15 Nov26 Nov19 (falcone rober)OLVER MADISON 120 6.00    
8  CHARLIE FIVE O Apr06 Mar25 Mar12 Mar04 Feb26 (jones eduardo)PANAIJO JORGE 125 15.00 6% 14.80    
9  LONG TERM Mar24 Feb17 Apr09 Mar05 Feb03 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 127 3.00 18% 4.50    
 
AQU-6   04/20/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($50K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MOTION TO STRIKE Apr15 Mar04 Jan05 Dec10 Nov20 (lynch natalia)DAVIS DYLAN 120 10.00    
SCR  WINNING DRIVE Mar26 Feb26 Feb09 Jan19 Nov17 (kantar)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 30.00    
3  O'TROUBLE Apr07 Mar25 Feb09 Jan21 Jan01 (jacobson)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 2.50 28% 2.60    
4  VICTORIOUS WAVE Mar26 Mar04 Jan07 Nov27 Oct27 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 123 4.00 12% 7.20    
SCR  LEDDY Feb11 Dec17 Nov05 Sep24 Aug03 (maker micha)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 8.00 8% 10.90    
6  HEIR PORT Mar26 Mar03 Feb10 Dec06 Nov20 (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 118 12.00 6% 16.50    
SCR  GANDY DANCING Apr01 Mar11 Mar03 Feb11 Jan05 (barrera s)DAVIS KATIE 123 15.00    
8  CAERUS Mar26 Mar10 Mar04 Feb12 Feb05 (per)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 20.00    
9  DIGITAL FUTURE Jan27 Dec17 Nov04 Oct06 Aug25 (handal ra)VARGAS A 123 8.00    
10  RAGTIME BLUES Mar25 Feb12 Dec04 Nov12 Oct21 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 123 3.00 21% 3.70    
 
AQU-7   04/20/2023 3960ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($82K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KAWHI ME A RIVER Jun02 May05       (terranova)VARGAS A 126 2.00 5% 18.60    
1A  FLASH KISS Dec16 Jul17 Jun24 Jun02   (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 126 2.00 ★    
2  AFTER FIVE Mar11 Feb12 Dec17 Nov20 Oct16 (quick patri)MCCARTHY TREVOR 126 6.00 ★    
3  SOSUA SUMMER Feb25 Jan22 Nov20 Oct23 Sep14 (mott william )FRANCO MANUEL 126 2.50 16% 5.40    
SCR  BATTUTA D'ORO Mar27 Mar03 Feb18 Jan25 Nov06 (romero rafael)DAVIS KATIE 120 15.00    
5  IKIGAI Mar04 Feb11 Jan14 Dec01 Oct16 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 126 5.00    
6  WINTER SON Mar04 Jul14 Jun17 May21 May12 (aren)HUAYAS (JASON) 121 12.00    
7  ELUSIVE EDGE         (hemingway miche)DAVIS DYLAN 126 8.00    
8  LEONIDS Mar11 Feb19 Jan20     (beattie tod)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 10.00    
SCR  PRESSURE Mar04 Jun21 May03 Apr08 Mar25 (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 126 12.00    
SCR  DOT'S DOLLAR Oct08 Sep17 Aug03 Jun11 May19 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 124 4.00 ★    
SCR  EXCELLENT TIMING Mar12 Feb17 Jan21 Dec10 Sep23 (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 126 1.00 57% 0.80    
 
AQU-8   04/20/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SOMAMA BEACH Mar18 Feb11 Jan08 Dec17 Sep22 (jerkens stev)TROTMAN KEIMAR 118 30.00    
2  THOMAS S P         (serpe philip )FRANCO MANUEL 125 4.00 46% 1.20    
3  GENTLEMAN BURGLAR Mar30         (hennig ma)VARGAS A 118 5.00 ★    
SCR  THE GOLDEN ONE Nov06         (chichakly amira)CANCEL ERIC 118 4.50    
SCR  ERIDROMOS Jul31 May28       (lugovich l)DAVIS KATIE 125 8.00    
SCR  DAKOTA'S DESTINY         (lynch na)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 8.00 9% 9.60    
7  MR. BUSTA Mar30 Mar11 Feb26 Jan29   (follett norman)BROWN DALTON 125 10.00    
SCR  PENTANGELI         (barrow p)DAVIS A 118 12.00 11% 8.10    
9  IRON HORIZON Mar30 Feb26       (ferrar)MARAGH RAMSAY 125 20.00    
10  BARONE MARCHIS Aug05 Jul10 May06 Apr16   (noda orland)MCCARTHY TREVOR 125 3.00 11% 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.