Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Friday - January 13, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5/4/6/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (1/5)-(1/5/4/6/3)-(1/5/4/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5)-(3/1/2/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(3/1/2/4)-(3/5/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-2   WIN (3/1/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/2/4)-(3/1/2/4/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/1/2/4)-(3/1/2/4/5)-(3/1/2/4/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/1/2/4)-(3/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2/4)-(3/5/1)-(1/2/3/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-3   WIN (3/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/1)-(3/5/1/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/1)-(3/5/1/6/2)-(3/5/1/6/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/5/1)-(1/2/3/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/1)-(1/2/3/6)-(7/3) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-4   WIN (1/2/3/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/3/6)-(1/2/3/6/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/2/3/6)-(1/2/3/6/4)-(1/2/3/6/4) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/2/3/6)-(7/3) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3/6)-(7/3)-(1/2/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-5   WIN (7/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (7/3)-(7/3/5/4/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (7/3)-(7/3/5/4/1)-(7/3/5/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3)-(1/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (7/3)-(1/2/4)-(1/7/4/6/8) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
AQU-6   WIN (1/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/4)-(1/2/4/3/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/4)-(1/2/4/3/5)-(1/2/4/3/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (1/2/4)-(1/7/4/6/8) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/2/4)-(1/7/4/6/8)-(8/1/6) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
AQU-7   WIN (1/7/4/6/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/7/4/6/8)-(1/7/4/6/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/7/4/6/8)-(1/7/4/6/8)-(1/7/4/6/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/7/4/6/8)-(8/1/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
AQU-8   WIN (8/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/1/6)-(1/8/6/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/1/6)-(1/8/6/9)-(1/8/6/9) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/13/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 4UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANDLESTICK MAKER Nov25 Oct28 Sep30 Aug21 Jul22 (levine bruce)DAVIS DYLAN 122 1.20 58% 0.70    
2  LORDHEARMYPRAYER Jan01 Dec15 Nov25 Oct13 Aug21 (barrera )GOMEZ ANTONIO 117 12.00    
3  TONIGHT WE LOVE Jan05 Dec08 Nov12 Oct15 Oct09 (martin carlos)OLVER MADISON 112 10.00 ★    
4  ALWAJD Dec15 Nov21 Aug01     (farro patricia)CANCEL ERIC 122 4.50 ★    
5  TEKILA Dec15 Nov25 Oct15 Sep10 Aug06 (hennig mark)CARMOUCHE K 122 3.50 16% 5.30    
6  FROSTY INVASION Dec08 Nov12 Sep24 Aug31 Aug03 (sche)HUAYAS (JASON) 115 3.00 ★    
 
AQU-2   01/13/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($36K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DANCING SOPHIA Dec10 Nov17 Oct15 Sep17 Jul28 (ryerson t)DAVIS DYLAN 123 2.00 23% 3.40    
2  IN TRAFFIC Dec15 Nov07 Oct13     (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 123 4.00 20% 4.10    
3  BRISKY FROLIC Dec10 Oct14 Apr09 Feb13 Jan02 (jacobson david)CARMOUCHE K 123 1.80 24% 3.20    
4  RUN DEVIL Dec18 Nov27       (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 120 6.00 12% 7.10    
5  APRIL ANTICS Dec08 Nov10 Aug26 Jul09 Jun11 (falcon)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 5.00 ★    
6  SYNONYMOUS Dec08 Nov06 Oct20 Sep25 Sep10 (pregman john)SAMUEL L 120 12.00    
 
AQU-3   01/13/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 3 ALL PT- 1:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  STEADY PROGRESS         (chatterpaul)MARTINEZ R 120 10.00 7% 13.70    
SCR  SWAY'SINMYDNA         (chatt)HERNANDEZ OMAR 113 10.00    
2  SCOOTSCOOT Dec02 Nov09 Oct22 Sep16   (handal ra)VARGAS A 120 3.50 ★    
3  WARRIOR RICHARD Dec29 Dec02       (falcone robert )DAVIS DYLAN 120 2.50 65% 0.50    
4  EL GRAN CUYAYA Dec29         (arenas marce)LAPRIDA JEREMY 120 6.00    
5  FROSTY HOLIDAY         (nev)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 4.50 7% 13.70    
6  STORMANDY Oct22         (bake)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 4.00 ★    
7  SCREEN DOOR Nov27 Oct27 Sep29     (breen ke)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 6.00    
 
AQU-4   01/13/2023 5280ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SA FORADADA Dec10 Nov11 Aug29 Jun26   (jones michael )ADORNO ABNER 120 2.00 33% 2.10    
2  ALPINE QUEEN Dec17 Oct14 Sep29 Aug04 Jun03 (tosc)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 3.00 17% 4.90    
3  DIAMOND COLLECTOR Dec31 Nov13 Jul03 Jun12 Apr07 (martin carlos )LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.50 14% 6.30    
4  MY FIRST LOVE Dec10 Nov13 Nov01 Oct10 Sep05 (ferraro w)CANCEL ERIC 123 3.50 ★    
5  GAGLIANO Dec10 Oct28 Sep16 Aug20 Jul04 (barrera s)DAVIS DYLAN 123 6.00    
6  RAFFINITY Dec30 Dec02 Oct27 Sep22 Aug04 (rodriguez rudy )CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00 9% 9.90    
 
AQU-5   01/13/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3 F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AUDIT COMMITTEE Nov10         (morley thomas)DAVIS DYLAN 120 4.50 ★    
2  BOUNTY KILLAH Jan07 Dec14       (richards marv)FUENTES ERICK 110 30.00    
3  WOKE UP A DIVA         (foll)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 20.00 25% 3.10    
4  MAJOR HOULIHAN Dec04         (trombetta mich)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00 ★    
5  CALY BALI Sep22         (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.50 ★    
6  GRACEFUL Jan07 Oct16 Jul31 Jul02   (friedman)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 10.00    
7  BABY SOX Nov27         (cam)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 1.60 47% 1.10    
 
AQU-6   01/13/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($72K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STARTED WITH STARS Nov30 Oct11 Sep19 Jul13 Jun06 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 123 12.00 36% 1.80    
2  BACKED BY GOLD Dec18 Nov02 Oct10 Sep12 Aug17 (qui)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 123 8.00 22% 3.50    
3  HOLIDAY JAZZ Nov27 Oct28 Oct06 Aug20 Jul20 (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 10.00 ★    
4  BERN ROSEY BERN Dec29 Nov12 Oct13 Aug31 Aug11 (martin c)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 8.00 11% 8.10    
5  SHINFULL Dec16 Nov17 Sep17 Aug20 Jun19 (donk david)CARMOUCHE K 123 1.60 ★    
6  SHADOLAMO Dec30 Dec15 Dec04 Nov20 Nov05 (jones ed)DAVIS A 123 2.50    
7  PREPOSTEROUS Sep22 Aug11 Jul27 Jun25 Apr29 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 123 3.50    
 
AQU-7   01/13/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($36K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIDNIGHT WORKER Jan05 Dec15 Dec09 Oct14 Sep03 (chic)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 4.00 22% 3.50    
2  TWO DOWN Dec09 Nov13 Oct30 Oct01 Aug13 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 120 8.00    
3  AVA K'S BOY Dec29 Apr15 Mar06 Feb11   (martin)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 6.00    
4  GOT THE GOLD Dec29 Nov26 Nov12 Oct15 Sep01 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 120 3.50 18% 4.50    
5  STORIED FELLA Dec10 Nov04 Oct08 Sep15 Aug26 (boniface kevi)OLVER MADISON 110 15.00    
6  ABUNDANT HONOR Nov19 Oct21 Sep30 Aug28 Jan05 (morley thomas)DAVIS DYLAN 123 3.00 15% 5.80    
7  BRACIOLE Dec31 Aug03 Jun16 Jun05 May08 (noda orl)GOMEZ ANTONIO 115 4.00 21% 3.70    
8  PERSISTENT DANGER Dec29 Dec11 Nov23 Nov08 Oct17 (sel)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-8   01/13/2023 4290ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($82K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ZERTZ Nov08 Sep28 Sep14 Jul29 Jun30 (jaco)HUAYAS (JASON) 116 4.50 ★    
1A  HANDSOME CAT Dec17 Nov08 Sep18 Aug21 Jul31 (jacobson david)CARMOUCHE K 123 4.50 21% 3.70    
SCR  LIKEABLE Dec13 Nov29 Oct04 Sep13 Aug06 (alb)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  MIDLANER Dec07 Nov14 Oct24 Sep27 Aug24 (moore michae)HERNANDEZ ANDY 120 15.00    
SCR  NEURO Nov18 Oct22 Aug13 Jul17   (ribaudo robe)SAMUEL L 123 12.00    
SCR  GIANT'S FIRE Nov11 Feb12 Jan14     (terranov)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 12.00    
6  RYAN'S CAT Nov05 Oct08 Aug20 Jul23 Jul01 (rodrig)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 6.00 5% 18.70    
7  TWELTH MAN Dec17 May07 Feb12 Jan08   (nevin michelle)LEZCANO JOSE 123 4.50    
8  KING ANGELO Dec17 Nov20 Oct16 Jul24 Jun04 (abreu r)FRANCO MANUEL 123 3.00 46% 1.20    
9  SHIPSATIONAL Dec02 Oct29 Oct08 Mar12 Feb12 (barker r)DAVIS DYLAN 123 8.00 ★    
10  MAGIA NERA Jul02 Jun24 May15 Apr09 Feb26 (breen j)CANCEL ERIC 123 20.00    
SCR  DIGITAL FUTURE Dec17 Nov04 Oct06 Aug25   (handal ra)VARGAS A 123 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.