Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 26, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/6)-(2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/6)-(5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/4/6)-(5/6)-(3/2/4/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/6)-(5/6/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5/6)-(5/6/1)-(5/6/1) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (5/6)-(3/2/4/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (5/6)-(3/2/4/1)-(4/3/10/7) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-3   WIN (3/2/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/4/1)-(3/2/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/4/1)-(3/2/4/1)-(3/2/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/4/1)-(4/3/10/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (3/2/4/1)-(4/3/10/7)-(7/2/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/3/10/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/10/7)-(4/3/10/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/10/7)-(4/3/10/7)-(4/3/10/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/10/7)-(7/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/10/7)-(7/2/3)-(1/5/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-5   WIN (7/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/2/3)-(7/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/2/3)-(7/2/3)-(7/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/2/3)-(1/5/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/2/3)-(1/5/3)-(2/3/11/1/5) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/3)-(1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/3)-(2/3/11/1/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/5/3)-(2/3/11/1/5)-(3/1/5/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (2/3/11/1/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/3/11/1/5)-(2/3/11/1/5/4) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (2/3/11/1/5)-(2/3/11/1/5/4)-(2/3/11/1/5/4) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (2/3/11/1/5)-(3/1/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/3/11/1/5)-(3/1/5/6)-(11/4/10/1/8) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-8   WIN (3/1/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/5/6)-(3/1/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/5/6)-(3/1/5/6)-(3/1/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/5/6)-(11/4/10/1/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5/6)-(11/4/10/1/8)-(2/5/4/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-9   WIN (11/4/10/1/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (11/4/10/1/8)-(11/4/10/1/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (11/4/10/1/8)-(11/4/10/1/8)-(11/4/10/1/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (11/4/10/1/8)-(2/5/4/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-10   WIN (2/5/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/4/1)-(2/5/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/4/1)-(2/5/4/1)-(2/5/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/26/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TISUM Sep03 Aug14 Jul25     (munoz carlos)TREJOS JOSEPH 119 12.00    
2  HORSE OF THE SEA Aug05         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 20% 3.90    
SCR  HAYES GOAL         (ennis john)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00    
4  WESTERN WARRIOR Aug31 Aug02 Jul04     (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 3.50 17% 4.80    
5  SECTION Aug31 Jul05       (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 2.50    
6  COACH RUDY Apr24 Apr07       (matejka pav)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 8.00 16% 5.10    
7  HERBS BOLT Sep13 Aug08       (hartman chris)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.00    
 
CD-2   09/26/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEEZER Sep12 Aug02 Jul12 Jun18 Jun04 (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.50 ★    
SCR  SUMMER IN AIKEN Jul28 Apr22 Mar21 Mar07 Feb14 (barnett bobby )SAEZ GABRIEL 121 20.00    
3  SHIPMAN Aug09 Jul17 Jun28 Jun06 May18 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00    
4  FLOTATION STATION Sep12 Aug01 Jul03 Jun21 May24 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 4.00    
5  VERTRAUEN Aug18 Jul26 Jul12 Jun20 Apr30 (foster eric)BARBOSA CARLOS 121 3.00 35% 1.80    
6  STRING THEORY Jul12 Jun15 Apr24 Apr06 Mar09 (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 121 5.00 29% 2.40    
 
CD-3   09/26/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AGGRO Jul04 Jun15 May23 Apr26 Mar30 (williams matt)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  ANIMAL FRIES Jul03 May09 Feb22 Jan23 Dec20 (newton troy)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.00 12% 7.70    
3  MUSTANG LADY Sep12 Aug16 Jul03 Apr11 Feb22 (newton tr)LEPAROUX R 122 2.50 51% 0.90    
4  TIZ SALTY Aug18 Jul12 Jun14 May18 Mar07 (thompson )TORRES A 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  WILD ACCLAIM May24 May11 Apr25 Feb23 Feb04 (mckeever andr)CANNON DECLAN 122 6.00    
6  ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY Sep17 Aug11 Jul21 Jun26 Jun13 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50    
7  MOMBAYLA Sep14 Aug16 Jul19 Jun20 May11 (crichton ro)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 3.00    
 
CD-4   09/26/2025 5280ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($69K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAKI MONARCHY Sep07 Aug08 Jul16 Jun15 Sep29 (beckman whi)ORTIZ JR 120 3.00    
2  ROC AND READY JO Feb23 Dec06       (correas ignaci)ORTIZ L 120 12.00    
3  MESSAGE OF HOPE (IRE) Aug23 Jul20 Feb18 Jan21 Oct13 (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.50 30% 2.30    
4  DR. SAIKALI Nov03 Oct06       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.00 30% 2.30    
SCR  KY DO DECLARE Aug28 Aug09 Sep18 Aug31   (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 120 10.00    
SCR  AUBREY'S MAX         (kerric)CURTSINGER JOHNATHON 120 20.00    
7  BON TEMPS Aug11 Jun13 May03 Mar29 Mar07 (harty eoin)POSTON K 110 8.00 7% 13.60    
8  ICE WOLF Sep03 Jun07 Dec23     (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 124 10.00    
9  CITY OF LIFE Sep07 Jul04       (wismer s)JUAREZ NIK 120 12.00    
10  LIAM'S LAGOON Aug30 Aug01 Jul10 Jun20 May18 (amoss thomas )CANNON DECLAN 120 8.00 11% 8.20    
 
CD-5   09/26/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROMANAYA Aug18 Jul08 Jun04 Apr24 Mar22 (gutierrez faus)ORTIZ L 121 6.00    
2  IT'S ALL RED Oct03 Aug10       (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00 34% 2.00    
3  TWISTED VIPER Aug18 Jun14 May02 Mar22   (ortiz )GRISALES DANILO 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  VOLATILE JINNY Aug18 Jul26 Jun25 May31   (wismer s)JUAREZ NIK 121 10.00    
5  KISSIN CASH Aug26 Dec01       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50    
SCR  PURPLE AND GOLD Aug23 Jul05 Jun11 May24 Oct27 (esquivel je)GUTIERREZ MARIO 121 3.50    
7  ASHES AND DIAMONDS Sep06 Jul25 Jun26 May22 Apr26 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 38% 1.70    
 
CD-6   09/26/2025 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SONHADOR Aug08 Oct30 Sep29 Aug19 Nov18 (murphy con)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 3.50 23% 3.30    
  (by UNION RAGS out of VUITTON by RED RANSOM)
2  DELICIOUS DIVA Aug31 Nov30       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of DANGEROUS DIVA by DEPUTY MINISTER)
3  CRIMSONITE Sep06 Aug08 Jun28     (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 8.00 14% 6.00    
  (by RAISE A CHAMPION out of FASCINATION by INTO MISCHIEF)
4  WHITETHORN         (mccarthy micha)ORTIZ L 120 10.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of COGNITIVE by UNCLE MO)
5  STRONG DESTINY Aug10 Jun29 May31     (cox h)ORTIZ JR 120 2.50 23% 3.40    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of BARBADIA by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
SCR  ABSOLUTE HONOR Aug14 Jul10 Jun06 Mar16   (joseph saffie )MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of ELUSIVE CHECKERS by QUALITY ROAD)
7  SENSING FLATTER Aug18 Oct01 Sep03     (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00    
  (by FLATTER out of AVIE'S SENSE by STREET SENSE)
 
CD-7   09/26/2025 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AWESOME GUN         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of PLUM AWESOME by CURLIN)
2  INORDINARY Aug23 Aug05 Jun13 May16   (sisterson ja)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.00 43% 1.30    
  (by LEXITONIAN out of TAPTAM by PLEASANT TAP)
3  PRIME SUSPECT         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 3.50 26% 2.80    
  (by CONGRATS out of GRAND CRU CRUZIAN by FORESTRY)
4  FLASH OF CHAOS         (eurton peter)CURTIS BEN 119 10.00 ★    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of JOINT RETURN by INCLUDE)
5  OUR MONEYMAN         (calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MR. MONEY out of LIPSTICK JUNKY by FLATTER)
6  WOOD YOU DARE         (moreno ti)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of WOOD NOT by KISSIN KRIS)
7  STARMETAL         (nihei michelle)ACHARD ALEX 119 30.00    
  (by UPSTART out of SAVING SOPHIE by CREATIVE CAUSE)
8  RECKLESS         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
  (by INDYGO SHINER out of FIAMMA D'ORO by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  MISTER LANDRY         (kinmon keith)LEBRON VICTOR 119 30.00    
  (by SKY MESA out of BARDS MISSCHIEF by INTO MISCHIEF)
10  SHOW ME THE MUNNY         (mcgee pau)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of INCLUDE ME OUT by INCLUDE)
11  SPIRIT OF ROYAL Aug22 Jun28       (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00 9% 9.60    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of SPIRIT LETS HEARIT by GIROLAMO)
12  TRIPP'S PROMISE         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 15.00    
  (by PROMISES FULFILLED out of MALIBU TREASURE by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  STRADALE Aug30 Jul19       (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 119 1.60    
  (by YAUPON out of TWITTERPATED by STORMY ATLANTIC)
SCR  ROCKIES BALBOA Sep01         (romans dale)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
  (by GIRVIN out of TONI ANN'S MIRACLE by HEAR NO EVIL)
SCR  STEEL GOLDEN         (west aaro)BERMUDEZ E 119 15.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of ZIA'S SONG by KITTEN'S JOY)
SCR  CONFESSIONAL         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00    
  (by HOLY BULL out of SPEEDY VANESSA by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
 
CD-8   09/26/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($82K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ESCALATION CLAUSE Oct12 Sep21 Nov11     (compton g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 4.50 29% 2.50    
2  FIELDING Sep14 Aug13       (maldonado jon)ORTIZ JR 120 5.00    
3  NUDGE Sep04 Jul26 Apr27 Mar30 Aug29 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 2.00 45% 1.20    
4  THE WARDEN Aug30 Aug02 Jul05 Jun07 May16 (moquett ron)ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 3.00    
5  MEGA MAGIC Aug31 Jul12 May30 May01 Mar14 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  EXPRESS LINE (FR) Aug16 Jun21 May16 Apr18 Jun08 (forster t)LANERIE J 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  BAYTOWN BRUISER Sep14 Aug09 Jun20 May30 May16 (king bar)RODRIGUEZ A 122 6.00    
SCR  LOU'S LEGACY Sep10 Jun14 May17 Apr29 Apr08 (andrade hu)VILLARREAL OSCAR 122 20.00    
 
CD-9   09/26/2025 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CONTRARY Jul26         (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00 8% 11.50    
2  GRAYLEIGH Sep06 Jul20 Jun29 Mar02 Feb05 (mitchell anthony)GRAHAM J 118 30.00    
3  CLASSY'N CONNECTED Sep06 Jul21 Jun27 May30 Nov22 (drury tho)TORRES A 122 10.00    
4  LOW KEY Sep01 Jul11 Mar15 Feb23 Aug26 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 118 5.00 16% 5.10    
5  CLAIRE'S RUN Aug24 Jul19 Jun14 May15   (bauer a)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
6  HIDDEN QUARRY Aug27 Jul26 Jun29 May29 Dec13 (west w)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
7  QUINN'S PROMISE Mar06 Jan30 Nov30 Nov15 Oct18 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 30.00    
8  UNION MIST Aug16 Jul04 Nov13 Oct17 Sep14 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  BEING MYSELF Aug18 Sep20       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00    
10  SHARP SMILE Mar01 Jan18 Nov21 Oct13 Jul21 (cox h)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 9% 10.50    
11  BUNDLE Aug08 Jun29 Apr17 Mar19 Feb15 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.00 45% 1.20    
12  LOBBY RENDEZVOUS Jul10 Jun04 Feb08 Dec29 Nov23 (shirer matt )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00    
SCR  L. A. WOMAN Jul20 Jun27 May26 Dec31 Nov13 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 122 2.50    
 
CD-10   09/26/2025 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ASIAN MATRIARCH Aug01 Jun13 May16 Jan26 Jan01 (sweezey j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  MALIBU SMART Sep04 Jul21 May29 Feb28 Jan19 (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 122 3.00 27% 2.70    
3  SPYING Sep05 Jul21 May28 Apr24 Mar19 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
4  FAIRE PLAISIR Jun05 May11 Apr26 Mar28 Mar06 (king barr)LEPAROUX R 122 15.00 21% 3.80    
5  TRUSTY TROUTMAN Aug10 Jun26       (schultz lindsa)ORTIZ L 118 2.00 22% 3.60    
6  SUNSET BEAUTY Aug08 Jun08 Apr20 Feb07   (gerteisen adam)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00    
7  VINO TIEMPO Aug16 Jun26 May31 May17 Apr26 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
8  TAKE CHARGE OMAHA Aug22 Jul21 Jun21 May25 Apr24 (sims matthe)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 8.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.