Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Saratoga
Wednesday - July 16, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
SAR-3   WIN (3/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00  3 $10.40 $4.40 73%
SAR-5   WIN (2/3/11/8/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00  11 $12.60 $2.60 26%
    EXA (2/3/11/8/6)-(2/3/11/8/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00  11-8 $62.50 $42.50 213%
Simulator Race results
 
SAR-1   07/16/2025 12540ft TURF RC11 FIRM Jonathan Kiser Memorial Novice Purse ($75K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:10
See original race card.
4:344         4:344   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
9  BLUE CREEK 9 412½ 710 68 31½ 1½ 14¼ (brion keri)MULQUEEN STEPHEN 147 4.50 5.00  
  (by DEMARCHELIER out of GRANDMA FRAN by STREET BOSS)
8  CHINA BEACH 8 512½ 59½ 57½ 2nk 2½ 24¼ (dalton kate)DALTON BERNARD 156 2.50 34% 2.00 1.55 P
  (by TREASURE BEACH out of STARSHIP FANTASY by YES IT'S TRUE)
6  QUICK MASTER 6 714 610 78½ 1nk 33½ 313¾ (fisher john )WATTERS GRAHAM 153 8.00 11.80  
  (by HARD SPUN out of PURA CLASSE by GRAND SLAM)
1  EVIE'S PRINCE 1 613½ 48½ 36 42 418½ 427 (morris r)PORETZ ERIC 156 3.00 ★ 4.00  
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of OWL MOON by GHOSTZAPPER)
3  CARAMELISED (GB) 3 26 21 12½ 52¼ 528½ 555½ (young leslie )BARGARY JAMIE 156 12.00 5% 19.00 17.60  
  (by DANSILI out of CASTER SUGAR by COZZENE)
2  BEAT LE BON (FR) 2 16 11 22½ 612¼ 648½ 693½ (fisher r)NEVIN DAN 153 8.00 5% 19.00 10.80  
  (by WOOTTON BASSETT out of FRIDA LA BLONDE by ELUSIVE CITY)
4  SULTAN PIERJI (FR) 4 311½ 37½ 46½ 727¼ 773½ 7120¼ (garner thomas)TODD CHARLIE 153 10.00 30.00  
  (by ECTOT out of SULTANE DES BORDES by LAVIRCO)
5  KITTEN AROUND 5 8100 8100 8100 8100 8100 8100 (brion keri)PROCTER FREDDIE 153 12.00 32% 2.10 10.10  
  (by FLINTSHIRE out of BAIL OUT KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
7  L'AVVOCATO (FR) 7 9100 9100 9100 9100 9100 9100 (neilson kat)GALLIGAN GERARD 153 10.00 9.10  
  (by FRANKEL out of AFTER DAWN by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE))
 
SAR-2   07/16/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
See original race card.
:211 :441 :56     1:02   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  INNATE (IRE) 3 2 1nk 1nk   12 1½ (antonacc)SANTANA JR 124 15.00 20.00  
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of LA NATUREL by SILVER FROST)
6  BEER RUN 5 5 43 43   32 2½ (ward a)ORTIZ L 124 2.50 41% 1.40 2.05 P
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SUDDEN HEAT by CONGRATS)
1  SNARE 1 1 56½ 65¾   52¾ 32¾ (ribaud)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 12.00 19.60  
  (by VEKOMA out of KERI BELLE by EMPIRE MAKER)
8  CUANDO 7 3 2nk 2nk   22 44¾ (levine bruce)LEZCANO JOSE 124 4.50 ★ 5.20  
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of FOX HUNT by SAINT LIAM)
2  MAKI MONARCHY 2 4 66¾ 75¾   64¼ 55½ (beckman whi)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00 5% 19.00 4.60  
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of SUSHI EMPIRE by EMPIRE MAKER)
7  DONTWORRYBOUTNOTHN 6 7 77¼ 55½   74¾ 68¼ (ward a)ESPINOZA V 119 3.50 22% 3.60 5.40  
  (by MUNNINGS out of GUILTY VERDICT by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
5  IRRELEVANT 4 6 31½ 32   42½ 78½ (sharp joe)CARMOUCHE K 119 4.00 2.60  
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of KNOW IT ALL ANNA by MIDNIGHT LUTE)
SCR  THE CLOSER               (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 6.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of CANA by FASTNET ROCK (AUS))
 
SAR-3   07/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($47K) 3 ALL PT- 2:23
See original race card.
:224 :46 :581     1:11   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  AERO STAR 3 2 1½ 11   15½ 16½ (d'angelo jose)ORTIZ JR 120 2.50 66% 0.50 4.20 W
2  THREE B'S 2 5 32 33   35½ 26½ (rice linda)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 0.95  
6  TAPWRITS TEMPER 6 1 2½ 21   25½ 36½ (potts w)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 115 15.00 5% 19.00 21.20 S
1  MILES AND MILES 1 6 53 54½   57½ 48 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.00 11% 8.50 4.10  
5  JUST CLARITY 5 4 42 43   46½ 510 (donk david)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 8.00 8.40  
4  SMILENSAYCHEESE 4 3 63½ 67   610½ 611¾ (maker mi)SANTANA JR 120 3.50 5.60  
 
SAR-4   07/16/2025 5940ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:58
See original race card.
:243 :493 1:143 1:39   1:513   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  IRON DOME 3 1 2½ 2nk 2nk 15½ 110½ (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 1.60 ★ 0.80  
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SPEIGHTFUL AFFAIR by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  KAZ OIL CHANGER 2 2 1½ 1nk 1nk 25½ 210½ (synnefias dim)ORTIZ JR 118 6.00 21% 3.70 4.70 P
  (by NAME CHANGER out of OIL PAINTING by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  UNDISPUTED 1 4 41½ 41¼ 32 310½ 313¾ (antonucc)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 42% 1.40 3.45 S
  (by AUTHENTIC out of THIN DISGUISE by YES IT'S TRUE)
6  STATE OF READINESS 4 6 66 63¾ 64¾ 412½ 418¾ (baker charlton)LUZZI J 124 8.00 7% 14.10 12.50  
  (by MAJESTIC CITY out of PRETTY COZZY by BROKEN VOW)
7  SOLO DANCING 5 5 52 52¼ 54½ 515 524¼ (hennig mark)DAVIS KATIE 118 10.00 14.80  
  (by SOLOMINI out of DANCING ONTHEMOON by MALIBU MOON)
8  SHAKEITFORTHEBIRD 6 3 31½ 31 44 620 633½ (ferraro antho)DAVIS DYLAN 118 12.00 8.10  
  (by BIG BROWN out of ASPREE by FREUD)
SCR  ANMOLO               (baker charlton)CANCEL ERIC 118 20.00    
  (by SNOW TROUBLE out of PHYSICAL DELIVERY by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
SCR  HELLO BEAUTY               (sisterson jack)ROSARIO JOEL 119 5.00    
  (by STREET SENSE out of MAXIMOVA by DANEHILL DANCER (IRE))
 
SAR-5   07/16/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 ALL PT- 3:33
See original race card.
:211 :443 :562     1:023   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  SPIRIT OF NEW YORK 9 2 53¾ 54¾   12½ 13¼ (rice adam)ORTIZ JR 119 4.00 9% 9.80 5.30 W
  (by HONEST MISCHIEF out of UNBROKEN SPIRIT by CANDY RIDE)
8  DILIELLO 6 8 88¼ 87¼   55½ 23¼ (david carlos)CASTELLANO J 119 12.00 5% 19.00 14.10 P
  (by GIFT BOX out of A CUT AHEAD by TIZ WONDERFUL)
10  CRISTOBAL 8 6 42¼ 43¾   44½ 35 (falcone robert)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 6.00 6.40  
  (by KANTHAROS out of CAN'T EXPLAIN by NOT FOR LOVE)
9  FUNNY FACTOR 7 7 76¼ 65¾   66 46½ (ryerson james )LEZCANO JOSE 119 20.00 50.25  
  (by THE FACTOR out of PAS DE DEUCE by CURLIN)
6  TIM AND SAM 4 10 99¾ 98¼   78 57¼ (de h)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 5% 19.00 25.00  
  (by MO TOWN out of BUDDY'S MEMORY by LEMON DROP KID)
2  ILLMATIC 1 4 1nk 1nk   22½ 67¼ (clement miguel)ROSARIO JOEL 119 3.50 25% 3.10 6.80  
  (by KANTHAROS out of GRANNY'S KAT by SANCTUARY (GB))
5  THREE THIRTEEN 3 3 2nk 2nk   33½ 713¼ (giddings mel)BRIDGMOHAN X 119 4.50 13.40  
  (by UNIFIED out of CLOUDKISSED by NYQUIST)
12  JAXER 10 1 64¾ 76¼   912 817 (motion grah)FRANCO MANUEL 119 5.00 12.20  
  (by SLUMBER out of LOST TICKET by MORE THAN READY)
3  SUPER DAVE 2 5 32 33½   812 921 (ward a)ESPINOZA V 119 3.00 24% 3.30 1.85  
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of TESORINA by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
7  WAMO 5 9 1017¾ 1028¼   10100 10100 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 6.00 5.50  
  (by YAUPON out of SEEKING HER GLORY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  DIAMOND CHILD               (giddings melanie)RIDER TBA 119 6.00    
  (by WEEKEND HIDEAWAY out of BOSS BARNEY'S BABE by STREET BOSS)
SCR  ESSENTIALLY FAST               (contes)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 12.00    
  (by ESSENTIAL QUALITY out of STORM CROSSING by TIZNOW)
SCR  JOE G TWENTYTHREE               (miceli mic)RIVERA R 119 20.00    
  (by ENGAGE out of STOLEN HEART by ECTON PARK)
SCR  KING OF FOG               (william)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 114 10.00    
  (by FOG OF WAR out of ANALYZEYURSPENDING by OVERANALYZE)
 
SAR-6   07/16/2025 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($35K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:08
See original race card.
:234 :473 1:12 1:361   1:422   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  SASSY PRINCESS 8 7 74½ 64½ 31 1½ 1½ (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 125 1.60 33% 2.00 1.45 W
3  STARLIGHT DANCER 3 8 86½ 86¼ 62¾ 31½ 2½ (nevin michelle)CARMOUCHE K 125 8.00 7% 13.10 4.10 P
1  TEMPLE CITY TABOO 1 3 64¼ 74¾ 73¼ 43 3½ (arriaga antoni)LEZCANO JOSE 120 5.00 22% 3.50 5.80 S
10  SILENT MELODY 10 5 2nk 21 1nk 2½ 41¼ (abreu r)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 4.00 11% 7.90 4.60  
7  SAILAWAY 7 10 109 108¾ 97¾ 77 54¼ (dutrow )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 115 12.00 20.40  
2  RUNWAY LIGHTS 2 2 32 32½ 41½ 53½ 65¼ (sacco gregory)VELAZQUEZ R 125 12.00 27.25  
4  THAT'S FUNNY 4 9 99 97¾ 86¼ 87½ 76¼ (abreu fernando)ROSARIO JOEL 120 15.00 25.75  
5  HIGHER FORCE 5 4 42¼ 53 52½ 67 88¼ (weaver georg)CASTELLANO J 120 10.00 6% 16.20 9.80  
6  TIMIA 6 1 1nk 11 2nk 910½ 921½ (kantarmaci il)FRANCO MANUEL 120 15.00 33.75  
9  POLITICAL SPIN 9 6 52¼ 42½ 1010¼ 10100 10100 (rodrigue)SANTANA JR 125 20.00 30.75  
SCR  LADY RIVER LILY               (seyler dou)RIVERA R 120 15.00    
SCR  MARGAUX TREASURE               (tagg barclay)DAVIS KATIE 125 4.00    
SCR  RIVER TAY (IRE)               (brown r)DAVIS KATIE 125 6.00    
SCR  SHE'S COMPLICATED               (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.00    
 
SAR-7   07/16/2025 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:43
See original race card.
:23 :453 1:102     1:231   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  TAP INTO THIS 2 4 52 42½   1½ 13¾ (asmussen steve)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 3.00 3.35  
  (by TAPIT out of SUPERIORITYCOMPLEX by HARD SPUN)
4  BARB 4 1 2½ 2½   2½ 23¾ (maker mi)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 5% 19.00 5.90 P
  (by CANDY RIDE out of CLASSIC POINT by FLATTER)
1  DURATION 1 5 41½ 32½   33½ 35 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 124 2.00 37% 1.70 2.55 S
  (by MITOLE out of SMILE MORE by TIZNOW)
6  PRIVATE FLIGHT 5 2 31½ 55   59 49½ (hennig mark)VELAZQUEZ R 119 15.00 13.10  
  (by MORE THAN READY out of LAUGHING MATTERS by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
3  MAINSTREAM 3 3 1½ 1½   48 518¾ (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 119 1.80 ★ 1.10  
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of LESLEY MAY by TAPIT)
SCR  LUZ DE GUIA               (zito nicholas )LUZZI J 119 30.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of KATHY'S CLOWN by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  TIME PASSES               (casse mark)CASTELLANO J 119 10.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of COMPLETED by VERRAZANO)
 
SAR-8   07/16/2025 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:18
See original race card.
:234 :474 1:124 1:381   1:512   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
8  GILMORE 7 4 44 45 32½ 11 13¼ (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 125 4.00 2.75  
9  MY NOBLE KNIGHT 8 7 65½ 56 42¾ 31½ 23¼ (amoss m)ORTIZ L 125 6.00 12% 7.40 5.70 P
1  DOUBLE YOUR MONEY 1 1 1½ 2½ 1nk 21 34 (dunn felissa)VELAZQUEZ R 125 4.50 2.75  
5  ALTERNATE REALITY 5 8 87¾ 77½ 76¼ 56 48 (potts w)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 120 3.50 28% 2.50 4.00  
7  CHELONIAN 6 3 2½ 1½ 2nk 44½ 510 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 125 4.50 22% 3.50 12.50  
4  SYSTEMIC CHANGE 4 5 54 67 64¾ 77½ 611 (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 125 8.00 6% 15.50 6.80  
3  CATCH THE SMOKE 3 6 75¾ 88½ 86¾ 87¾ 711¾ (potts wayne)DAVIS DYLAN 125 10.00 16.90  
2  SAGAMORE MISCHIEF 2 2 33 35 53¾ 67½ 814¼ (rodrigue)SANTANA JR 125 12.00 15.50  
SCR  WELAKA               (danner kelsey)FRANCO MANUEL 123 12.00    
 
SAR-9   07/16/2025 5610ft TURF RC11 FIRM Suzie O'Cain Purse ($150K) 3 F PT- 5:42
See original race card.
:233 :481 1:13 1:362   1:421   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  MOMMY'S TURN 2 5 32½ 32 31½ 1nk 12 (brown c)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.50 36% 1.80 2.50 W
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of HARD TO STAY NOTGO by MORE THAN READY)
9  DISCO STAR 8 7 77 65½ 53 42½ 22 (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 120 5.00 6.50  
  (by DISCO PARTNER out of SKY GAZER by SKY MESA)
6  BOSTON'S PHINEST 5 3 21½ 21 21 31½ 32 (brown r)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 12.00 5% 18.60 15.60 S
  (by HONEST MISCHIEF out of ALL IN TIME by CURLIN)
8  SHE'S OUR TIZ 7 9 88½ 87 74½ 53 42¾ (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00 ★ 21.40  
  (by MUNNINGS out of TIZSOMETHINGROYAL by TIZWAY)
1  GRACE AND GRIT 1 1 11½ 11 11 2nk 54 (kimmel c)FRANCO MANUEL 120 8.00 20.20  
  (by MUNNINGS out of SHERIFFA by POSSE)
3  TRAIL OF GOLD 3 8 99½ 98 95½ 76¾ 65¾ (donk david)ORTIZ JR 120 4.50 4.80  
  (by SOLOMINI out of BENE PISTA by BERNARDINI)
7  MARVELOUS MADISON 6 4 44 44 42½ 66½ 76¼ (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 8.00 6.00  
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of SHEA DARBY by STREET SENSE)
5  CHARLOTTE'S HEART 4 2 55½ 54½ 63½ 87¼ 86½ (casse mark)CASTELLANO J 120 4.50 20% 3.90 3.45  
  (by AUTHENTIC out of ACHALAYA by BELLAMY ROAD)
10  CARMEN'S CANDY JAR 9 6 67 76 85 98¼ 912¼ (pletcher todd )ORTIZ L 120 12.00 14% 6.00 10.60  
  (by VINO ROSSO out of NO MO SHOPPING by UNCLE MO)
SCR  BLOSSOMING ERUDITE               (david c)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 120 20.00    
  (by SOLOMINI out of BLOSSOMED IN TIME by FLOWER ALLEY)
SCR  KAY CUP               (abreu r)ORTIZ JR 124 1.00    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of GYPSY JO by LEMON DROP KID)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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