Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Saturday - April 12, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (6/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/1)-(6/5/1)-(6/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/1)-(4/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/5/1)-(4/1/3)-(4/3/2) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-2   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/3)-(4/3/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(4/3/2)-(4/6/3/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-3   WIN (4/3/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/2)-(4/3/2)-(4/3/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/3/2)-(4/6/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2)-(4/6/3/2)-(2/1/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-4   WIN (4/6/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/3/2)-(4/6/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/3/2)-(4/6/3/2)-(4/6/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/3/2)-(2/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/6/3/2)-(2/1/6)-(5/2/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-5   WIN (2/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/6)-(2/1/6)-(2/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/6)-(5/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/1/6)-(5/2/6)-(1/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-6   WIN (5/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/6)-(5/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/6)-(5/2/6)-(5/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/6)-(1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/2/6)-(1/4)-(1/2/8) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-7   WIN (1/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/4)-(1/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/4)-(1/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (1/4)-(1/2/8)-(5/1/4/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
AQU-8   WIN (1/2/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/8)-(1/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/8)-(1/2/8)-(1/2/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/8)-(5/1/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-9   WIN (5/1/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/4/8)-(5/1/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/4/8)-(5/1/4/8)-(5/1/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   04/12/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($28K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GUN MAESTRO Mar21 Mar02 Feb14 Feb02 Aug04 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  BOSS THREE O TWO Apr04 Mar21 Feb22 Feb15 Jan11 (kantarma)GONZALEZ SILVESTRE 123 2.50    
3  BRONX BOMBER Mar21 Feb02 Dec06 Nov14 Nov01 (barrera )GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 5.00    
4  PERSISTENT DANGER Mar21 Mar14 Feb23 Feb09 Jan12 (arriaga anton)OLVER MADISON 121 4.50    
5  LORD CAPTAIN Sep14 Aug21 Jul31 Jun21 May26 (rice linda)SILVERA RUBEN 121 3.00 11% 8.20    
6  THANK YOU JON Mar16 Feb09 Jan12 Jan04 Dec13 (potts wayne)GEROUX FLORENT 123 2.00 53% 0.90    
 
AQU-2   04/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($86K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOLD JOURNEY Mar01 Jan26 Dec30 Nov24 Oct12 (mott i)CANCEL ERIC 121 3.50 26% 2.90    
2  ROTKNEE Oct27 Sep23 Aug08 Jun08 May02 (maker michae)CASTELLANO J 121 4.00    
3  RIDGEWOOD RUNNER Mar01 Feb08 Jan18 Dec29 Nov24 (martin car)RIVERA R 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  JUST BEAT THE ODDS Mar09 Apr14 Mar06 Jan20 Dec16 (sacco gregor)GEROUX FLORENT 123 1.40 46% 1.20    
5  SURVEILLANCE Apr05 Mar01 Feb09 Jan16 Nov24 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 121 2.00    
 
AQU-3   04/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CO CONSPIRATOR Apr06 Mar08 Feb15 Jan18 Jan02 (jones)HERNANDEZ OMAR 124 15.00    
2  BIG RICH Apr05 Mar14 Feb21 Feb07 Jan11 (ferraro)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  PERFECT FLIGHT Mar21 Mar07 Feb21 Jan26 Jan04 (shivmangal loli)DAVIS KATIE 124 4.00 19% 4.30    
4  ZEEBEAR Feb21 Aug01 Feb16 Dec30 Dec07 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 124 1.80 54% 0.90    
5  HOT ROD RUMBLE Mar21 Aug04 Jun29 May04 Mar22 (arriaga anton)OLVER MADISON 124 3.50    
6  WHENLOVETAKESOVER Feb21 Jan26 Jan04 Dec13 Nov08 (quick patr)RIVERA R 124 2.50    
 
AQU-4   04/12/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($38K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHOCOLATECHOCOLATE Mar16         (green j)DAVIS DYLAN 125 3.50    
2  PERSUASIVE Feb23         (ness jamie)SILVERA RUBEN 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  MY LADY BAE Jul11         (atras rob)OLVER MADISON 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  SHE'S COMPLICATED Mar15 Feb08 Dec27     (mott i)CARMOUCHE K 118 1.00 56% 0.80    
5  WAKE UP LAUREN Mar23 Jan26 Dec07 Oct23 Oct10 (reynold)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 120 6.00    
6  PARADE RING (IRE) Mar05 Feb05 Jun28 May02 Mar15 (dutrow antho)CASTELLANO J 125 4.00 20% 4.00    
7  CONTRACT LAW Dec29 Nov01 Oct03     (serpe ph)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 15.00    
 
AQU-5   04/12/2025 4620ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($78K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CALDO CANDY Feb14 Jan16 Nov30 Aug01 Jun06 (bond jam)CARMOUCHE K 121 1.80 19% 4.30    
2  TEN CENT TOWN Mar14 May17 Mar29 Feb16 Jan13 (dutrow richard )DAVIS DYLAN 121 3.00 53% 0.90    
3  CONCORDE SPIRIT Mar22 Mar09 Feb22 Feb02 Jan19 (delauro )GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 5.00    
4  ELYSIAN MEADOWS Mar14 Aug25 Aug15 Jul15 Jun09 (mott william)CASTELLANO J 121 3.00    
5  CLANCY FANCY Jan26 Nov02 Jul20 Jun14 May10 (englehart chris)CANCEL ERIC 123 5.00    
6  ROCK THE WEEKEND Mar21 Mar01 Jan23 Dec28 Nov23 (shivmangal loli)DAVIS KATIE 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-6   04/12/2025 5280ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIMAEUS Apr04 Mar09 Jan24 Jan04 Jun22 (rodriguez r)GONZALEZ MELVIS 116 3.50    
SCR  ALWAYS BE SMART Mar23 Feb10 Dec13 Nov07 Jul31 (rodriguez rudy)CEDENO CAROL 123 3.50    
2  BADGE OF WAR Feb27 Jan01 Nov13 Nov08 Oct18 (dutrow richard )CANCEL ERIC 123 3.00 33% 2.00    
SCR  MR. PAPAGIORGIO Sep21 Aug07 Jun15 Jun07 May10 (dutrow richard )DAVIS DYLAN 121 3.00    
3  FLAT ON Oct10 Sep25 Aug17 Jun23 May26 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 121 2.50    
4  SCAT TU TAP Mar15 Feb22 Feb02 Jan24 Jan11 (arriaga an)RIVERA R 123 4.00    
5  DEVIL'S CAY Feb23 Feb02 Jan26 Jan04 Dec13 (ness jamie)SILVERA RUBEN 123 5.00 36% 1.80    
6  RAGAZZO DIABOLICO Mar22 Feb02 Jan03 Nov15 Nov02 (lugovi)MARAGH RAMSAY 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SIX KINGS Apr05 Mar15 Feb28 Jan03 Oct20 (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 123 15.00    
 
AQU-7   04/12/2025 5940ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Top Flight Purse ($150K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALPINE PRINCESS Mar08 Jan25 Nov30 Sep29 Mar23 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 0.80 55% 0.80    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of LE MOINE by CURLIN)
SCR  CATHERINE WHEEL Mar15 Feb02 Feb09 Nov03 Sep17 (brown c)CANCEL ERIC 118 6.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of SUCCEEDING by SMART STRIKE)
3  ELLIPTIC (IRE) Mar15 Jan30 Jan02 Dec15 Nov14 (green a)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 15.00    
  (by ARROGATE out of REDHEADS RULE by BIG BROWN)
4  HEADLINE NUMBERS Feb15 Jan05 Oct26 Aug22 Jul04 (brown c)DAVIS DYLAN 118 4.00 15% 5.50    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of CURLIN'S MISTRESS by CURLIN)
SCR  FADE TO GREY Mar16 Feb06 Jan11 Dec06 Oct19 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 118 2.50    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of TAPITINSILVER by TAPIT)
6  MISS SPITFIRE Feb19 Jul21 Apr25     (abreu )MARAGH RAMSAY 118 30.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of MORNING RUSH by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
AQU-8   04/12/2025 5280ft DIRT RC6 SLOPPY Optional Claiming ($15K) Purse ($40K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLAT OUT FLYING Mar15 Feb02 Jan10 Nov24 Nov08 (atras r)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 118 1.40 42% 1.40    
2  QUICK HAMMER Mar29 Feb23 Feb02 Jan12 Jan02 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 123 3.00 14% 6.10    
SCR  FUNNY JOKE Mar21 Feb23 Jul12 Jun09 Mar12 (rodriguez r)GONZALEZ MELVIS 114 15.00    
4  ALLURE OF MONEY Apr05 Mar09 Feb15 Jan18 Dec15 (goberdhan chan)LUZZI J 121 15.00    
SCR  VALENZAN DAY Apr05 Jan19 Dec08 Nov16 Nov02 (chatterp)GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 10.00    
6  BROOKLYN STRONG Mar14 Feb14 Jan19 Dec20 Nov25 (velazquez da)CASTELLANO J 121 12.00    
7  HIGH TIDE Mar29 Mar02 Feb02 Jan19 Nov14 (abreu )MARAGH RAMSAY 123 5.00    
8  ICE ROAD Mar08 Feb14 Jan18 Jan01 Dec12 (rice linda)SILVERA RUBEN 123 6.00 9% 9.90    
 
AQU-9   04/12/2025 4620ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($82K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MASTER OF ARMS Mar16 Feb09 Jan04 Dec14 Sep27 (maker michae)GEROUX FLORENT 123 4.00 31% 2.20    
SCR  ANTONIO OF VENICE Mar16 Feb15 Dec28 Nov23 Apr14 (rodrig)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 3.50    
3  ELIMINATE Aug28 Jul20 Jun07 May05 Apr06 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 121 8.00    
4  SHIPSATIONAL Mar16 Feb15 Jan18 Nov30 May27 (barker r)CANCEL ERIC 121 8.00 13% 6.70    
5  QUICK TO ACCUSE Mar01 Jan18 Dec07 Oct05 Jun08 (giangiulio mich)DAVIS DYLAN 123 1.40 33% 2.00    
6  GO IRISH Jul13 Jun21 May11     (antonucci jena )DAVIS KATIE 121 30.00    
7  PRESIDENT Z Mar14 Jan19 Nov20 Nov02 Feb09 (dutrow richard)LUZZI J 121 8.00    
8  AIR OF DEFIANCE Jan18 Dec07 Oct04 Oct18 Aug25 (summers ch)RIVERA R 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.