Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Sunday - July 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-2   WIN (4/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/5)-(4/2/5)-(4/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (4/2/5)-(1/6/5)-(5/4/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-3   WIN (1/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/6/5)-(1/6/5)-(1/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (1/6/5)-(5/4/3)-(2/5/1/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ARP-4   WIN (5/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/3)-(5/4/3)-(5/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/4/3)-(2/5/1/3)-(3/4/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ARP-5   WIN (2/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/1/3)-(2/5/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/1/3)-(2/5/1/3)-(2/5/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/5/1/3)-(3/4/6)-(5/2/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ARP-6   WIN (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/6)-(3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (3/4/6)-(5/2/3)-(5/1/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-7   WIN (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-8   WIN (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/3)-(5/1/3)-(5/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-2   07/30/2023 2970ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MY MEADOW Jul08 Sep25 Sep12 Aug22 Aug09 (hall monk)MEDINA ANGEL 121 3.50    
2  DONNAS FINAL WORD Oct03 Sep25 Sep13 Aug30 Aug09 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 121 10.00 17% 4.80    
3  OLIVIAN Jun17 May19 Apr08 Mar26 Mar17 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50    
4  OUT OF THE SKY Jul10 Oct03 Sep19 Aug30 Aug02 (jenkins l)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 15.00 47% 1.10    
5  TOTHEMOONANDBACK Jul10 Jul01 Jun18 May13 Apr01 (lavanway dayson)TORRES J 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
ARP-3   07/30/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($7.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RACHIE RACH Jun24 May12 Apr14 Mar31 Feb26 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50 51% 1.00    
2  PEGGY B FAST Jul10 Jun18 May07 Apr22 Feb21 (rust terri)RAMOS B 124 3.50    
3  PALM COURT Apr30 Apr07 Apr01 Feb25 Feb04 (lemburg mark)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
4  ALWAYS A TIZ Jul10 May29 May19 Apr22 Apr01 (ibanez alber)JOURNET JARRED 124 15.00    
5  RAGING LADY Jul23 Jun24 Jun18 May02 Apr22 (torres-ca)MEDINA ANGEL 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  JUST REMEMBER Jul10 Sep25 Aug22 Aug01   (hall monk)RAMEY CASH 116 4.50 23% 3.30    
 
ARP-4   07/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($6K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOCS CARO CAT Oct01 Sep13 Aug30 Jul17 Jul03 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 121 15.00    
2  ROUGE SUNSET Jul10 Jun24 Jun17 May05 Mar26 (torres-casas j)WALES T 124 6.00    
3  FRISCO KID Jul16 Jun25 Jun17 May06 Apr18 (villamar ca)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50 13% 6.60    
4  WEBCAM Jul10 Apr15 Apr01 Mar04 Aug29 (rushton temple)RAMEY CASH 119 3.50 14% 6.00    
5  DEL ARGENT Oct02 Sep18 Aug29 Aug15 Aug02 (alire randy)LULL E 124 4.50 44% 1.30    
6  NORTHRNDANCRSGHOST Jul23 Jul09 Jun25 Jun17 May02 (perkinson cc)LUARK T 124 20.00    
 
ARP-5   07/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MANDONA Jul08 Jun19 Apr08 Mar28 Mar14 (barraza s)RAMOS B 124 2.50 20% 4.00    
2  LOVELY LOLA Jul16 Jul01 Jun17 May06 Apr18 (ortega joe)WALES T 124 4.50 30% 2.40    
3  HERE AND VOW Mar04 Feb19       (mcdonald willia)HAAR NATHAN 124 15.00 8% 11.60    
4  AMBER WAVES Sep25 Sep12 Aug23 Jul31 Jul17 (chavez juan)TORRES J 124 20.00    
5  EYEJUST TOOKCHARGE Jun19 May06 Apr09 Mar12 Feb05 (rust terri)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 3.50 20% 4.00    
6  CAROLYN'S WAY Jul16 Jun25 Jun17 May20 Jan30 (lavanway day)MARTIN A 124 8.00    
7  GEORGIANO Jul16 Jun25 May15 Nov26 Oct31 (williams )MEDINA ANGEL 124 10.00    
8  HOT LIL MESS Jul03 Apr09 Mar05 Feb19 Feb05 (megariz mic)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 12.00    
 
ARP-6   07/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($12.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABRIERWIN Jul16 Jun24 May13 Apr03 Mar12 (lavanway dayson)TORRES J 124 15.00    
2  LOCO LUNA Jul10 Jun19 Dec10 Nov12 Aug20 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 120 3.50    
3  BIG JACK Jul08 Jun17 May02 Mar06 Feb14 (martinez a)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 2.50 45% 1.20    
4  RIGHT TO SUE Jul15 Jul02 Jun17 May01 Apr17 (villamar ca)MORALES ROBERTO 124 4.50 21% 3.80    
5  TREASURE COAST Jul15 Jul03 Jun10 May28 Apr30 (hibdon n)LULL E 120 6.00    
6  UNSTOPPABLE ME Jun07 May25 May01 Apr01 Mar21 (tate mary)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 12.00 11% 7.70    
 
ARP-7   07/30/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 FAST CTBA Derby Purse ($34.548K) 3 C/G PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YOU'RE MY ROCK Jul09 Oct01 Sep11 Aug28   (martinez a)WALES T 122 20.00    
  (by TROJAN NATION out of NORTHERN ROCK (JPN) by NORTHERN TASTE)
2  HOLY MISSION Jul23         (hall monk)RAMEY CASH 122 2.50 29% 2.40    
  (by VICE LORD out of ON MY MISSION by NO STORMS)
3  GUTFIELD Jul09 Jun19 Jul24     (triana juan )MARTIN A 122 6.00 10% 8.60    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of SWEETPRINCESSCHARM by SWEETSOUTHERNSAINT)
4  CAN DANZER Jul09         (rushton stacy)LULL E 122 15.00    
  (by MIDNIGHT CROONER out of TULSA MOON by NATIONAL SAINT)
5  LUCYS MAJOR MIRCLE Jul15 Jul02 Oct01 Sep11 Aug15 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 122 3.50 39% 1.60    
  (by MAJOR BIG TIME out of LUCY LOVES NANA by INCLUDE)
6  WHEELER DEALER Jul10 Jun23 Jun03 Oct04 Sep11 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 122 4.50    
  (by ZIP QUIK out of SHEETS by SCATMANDU)
 
ARP-8   07/30/2023 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($8K) Purse ($7.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BULLAWAY Jul17 Jul03 Jun18 Oct02 Sep19 (long vaughn)WALES T 121 4.50 22% 3.60    
2  JU JU GUY Jul15 Jul02 Mar04 Oct04 Sep19 (childs russell)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00    
3  WAGER NO MO Jul15 Jul01 May06 Apr15 Apr01 (deisley gale)RAMOS B 124 3.50 16% 5.20    
4  OREGON COUNTY Jun25 May20 May13 Apr28 Apr15 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 15.00    
5  GOOSE DRANK WINE Jul15 Jun17 May20 Apr30 Apr08 (rushton t)MEDINA ANGEL 124 8.00 27% 2.60    
6  COWBOY DON Jul03 Jun17 Oct04 Sep20 Sep06 (mcdonald willia)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.