Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Emerald Downs
Sunday - May 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
EMD-1   WIN (5) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (5)-(5/2/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI (5)-(5/2/1)-(5/2/1) 2 $0.50 $1.00 
    DD (5)-(2/3/5) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (5)-(2/3/5)-(5/1/2) 9 $0.50 $4.50 
EMD-2   WIN (2/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/5)-(2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/5)-(5/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (2/3/5)-(5/1/2)-(4/1/3) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
EMD-3   WIN (5/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/2)-(5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/2)-(4/1/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/1/2)-(4/1/3)-(2/5/1) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
EMD-4   WIN (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/1/3)-(4/1/3)-(4/1/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/1/3)-(2/5/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/1/3)-(2/5/1)-(4/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
EMD-5   WIN (2/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/5/1)-(2/5/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/5/1)-(2/5/1)-(2/5/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/5/1)-(4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/5/1)-(4/6)-(3/4/1) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
EMD-6   WIN (4/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/6)-(4/6/5) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (4/6)-(4/6/5)-(4/6/5) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (4/6)-(3/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (4/6)-(3/4/1)-(2/1/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
EMD-7   WIN (3/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/1)-(3/4/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/4/1)-(3/4/1/5)-(3/4/1/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/4/1)-(2/1/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/4/1)-(2/1/6/4)-(3/2/4/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
EMD-8   WIN (2/1/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/6/4)-(2/1/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/6/4)-(2/1/6/4)-(2/1/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/6/4)-(3/2/4/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
EMD-9   WIN (3/2/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/4/6)-(3/2/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/4/6)-(3/2/4/6)-(3/2/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
EMD-1   05/21/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($14K) 3 ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAAJIN RIBBON May13 Apr17 Sep11 Aug21 Aug14 (metz jeffrey)CRUZ M 119 3.00 ★    
2  ZACCHEUS Dec09 Nov18 Oct22 Oct02   (rosales jorge)RADKE K 119 2.50 ★    
3  OAKDALE ROAD Jan09 Dec09 Nov06 Sep04 Aug05 (baze robert)ANAYA V 116 12.00    
4  ALTITUDE Apr16 Mar25 Mar03 Jan29 Jan20 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 122 4.00    
5  REGULATION DAZED May13 Apr26 Apr12 Mar17 Jan29 (evans justin)ENRIQUEZ D 122 1.60 74% 0.40    
 
EMD-2   05/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LARSEN BAY Sep18 Sep10 Aug28 Aug12 Jul23 (belvoir howard)MONTALVO C 121 6.00    
2  EYE CANDY RANDY May06 Mar20 Mar05 Feb13 Jan08 (birdwell ten)OROZCO E 124 1.20 58% 0.70    
3  SILENT DECLARATION May13 Feb28 Feb11 Jan23 Dec19 (pierce michae)VALDES ALEXIS 124 3.50 12% 7.20    
4  CONTINUE ON VICTOR Sep10 Aug28 Aug06 Jul23   (gibson vince)CRUZ M 121 8.00    
5  WESTERN RULE May06 Sep17 Sep11 Aug12 Jul23 (belvoir howard)WHITAKER J 121 2.50 9% 10.30    
 
EMD-3   05/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DIRT ROAD RED May06 Apr15 Mar12 Jan10 Nov22 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 121 1.80 21% 3.80    
2  HOLIDAY HUSTLE Apr30 Apr02 Mar11 Jan15 Nov25 (mccanna tim)CRUZ M 121 2.00 16% 5.30    
3  MIRROR IMAGE Apr04 Mar05 Feb15 Sep09 Aug12 (garcia valen)OROZCO E 121 10.00    
4  SPROSTON Mar26 Mar05 Feb12 Jan16 Dec26 (evans )RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 121 5.00    
5  GOLD RUSH CANDY Apr04 Mar19 Mar06 Feb22 Feb07 (velasquez rig)VALDES ALEXIS 124 2.50 38% 1.70    
 
EMD-4   05/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LILY PAD LAKE Apr18 Mar25 Mar18 Mar11 Feb26 (van debbie)MONTALVO C 120 5.00 21% 3.70    
2  NAN ELIZABETH Apr14 Mar18 Feb26 Feb19 Feb04 (medina)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 120 2.50    
3  BANDON BRIDGE Feb14 Feb06 Dec19 Nov12 Oct15 (pierce michae)VALDES ALEXIS 120 6.00 15% 5.80    
4  SLICE OF PIE Sep18 Aug20 Jul31     (cryderman candice )MATIAS J 120 1.80 28% 2.60    
5  TYCHE AWAITS YOU Mar09 Jan21 Nov24 Oct29 Oct01 (crowe shelly)CRUZ M 120 3.50    
6  MISS MENSA Jan24 Dec22 Nov09 Oct15 Aug25 (metz jeffrey)NEGRON LUIS 120 10.00    
 
EMD-5   05/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WESTERBERG Apr18 Mar21 Mar12 Feb14 Jan31 (alvarez serg)OROZCO E 121 6.00 7% 13.00    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of WEDDING DRESS by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
2  CHARLIE'S MAN Apr22 Mar29 Mar06 Feb14 Jan28 (alvarez sergio)RADKE K 121 1.20 42% 1.40    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
3  MY DAD IS THIRSTY May13 Apr23 Apr14 Mar31 Feb18 (perez hilario)VALDES ALEXIS 121 15.00    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of HAWK'S JOURNEY by GOOD JOURNEY)
4  KAHALA Aug14 Jul17       (martinez david )CRUZ M 121 20.00    
  (by BROKEN VOW out of KARULA by COLONEL JOHN)
5  RAMPATIOUS Mar26 Jan04 Dec03 Oct16 Sep18 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 124 1.80 27% 2.70    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of INDY DREAMING by A.P. INDY)
6  AFRICAN PRINCE Apr14 Mar31 Mar04 Feb17 Jan20 (medina luciano)ANAYA V 124 5.00    
  (by DADDY NOSE BEST out of SO. AFRICAN QUEEN by UNACCOUNTED FOR)
 
EMD-6   05/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($9.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOUMEA Sep10 Aug21 Jul22 Jul08 Jun05 (rosales jorge)VALDES ALEXIS 123 5.00    
SCR  YELLEN May13 Apr24 Mar25 Feb25 Feb16 (toye joe)ANAYA V 123 20.00 7% 13.90    
3  DODROPIN May13 Apr24 Mar29 Mar04 Feb09 (toye joe)SARMIENTO RIGO 123 8.00    
4  DANCE LADY Apr24 Mar31 Mar09 Feb12 Jan22 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 123 1.20 45% 1.20    
5  RED PANTY NIGHT May06 Apr15 Apr01 Mar13 Feb26 (bullene michael)MONTALVO C 123 12.00 ★    
6  FLYIN BY Apr05 Feb25 Feb06 Jan24 Dec19 (metz jeffrey)RADKE K 123 4.50 28% 2.60    
7  BADGER GAL May13 Jan15 Jan08 Nov06 Oct22 (cryderman ca)OROZCO E 123 12.00    
8  JACANA Feb15 Jan30 Jan11 Dec10 Nov16 (navarro jose)CRUZ M 123 8.00    
 
EMD-7   05/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($16K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TRY TO CAPTURE May01 Apr03 Mar04 Feb13 Jan26 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 124 2.50 22% 3.60    
2  HOLLYWOOD AS USUAL Apr13 Mar25 Jan25 Jan04   (chattong vichie)RUIZ G 121 20.00    
3  STAND TO Feb28 Jan30 Jan10 Dec13 Nov21 (velasquez rigo)ENRIQUEZ D 121 3.00 28% 2.50    
4  UPPER ROOM Apr24 Mar28 Mar04 Feb04 Dec27 (toye joe)RADKE K 121 4.50 22% 3.50    
5  YOU SPLIT TENS Apr15 Mar26 Mar14 Feb15 Jan30 (evans justin)CRUZ M 124 3.50 ★    
6  MAHI MAHI Apr08 Feb16 Jan31 Jan09 Dec15 (garcia valen)OROZCO E 121 6.00    
7  QUIET CHARM Feb25 Feb12 Feb04 Jan02 Dec26 (perez hi)AMADOR RUIZ 121 8.00    
 
EMD-8   05/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($16K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CLASSIC LEAH Sep11 Aug14 Aug06 Jul16 Jun26 (gibson vince)NEGRON LUIS 120 4.50 22% 3.50    
2  HOLLYWOOD MISTRESS Apr01 Feb22 Jan11 Dec17 Oct15 (cruz pea)CRUZ M 123 4.00 23% 3.40    
3  YOUR ROYAL COIL Dec18 Feb20 Jan02     (perez hi)AMADOR RUIZ 120 8.00    
4  QUEEN BREEZY May14 Jul29 Jul16 Jun25 Jan19 (velasquez rig)VALDES ALEXIS 120 2.50 13% 6.50    
5  HEART ON THE RUN Mar18 Mar08 Feb07 Jan02 Dec21 (nunnally jenni)ANAYA V 120 6.00    
6  SMILING THUNDER Mar19 Mar05 Feb25 Feb11 Jan24 (nunnally jennifer)RADKE K 123 3.00 15% 5.60    
7  KERRALIA Sep03 Aug05 Jul08 Jun18 May29 (wisdom anne)MATIAS J 120 12.00    
 
EMD-9   05/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($8.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SENSUOUS KITTY Mar27 Feb04 Jan09     (essex charle)OROZCO E 123 12.00    
2  CHEATER'S WALTZ May06 Apr09 Mar25 Mar09   (medina luciano )NEGRON LUIS 123 4.50 23% 3.40    
3  DAREDEVIL PRINCESS Apr07 Mar24 Feb18 Dec10 Oct29 (mccanna tim)RADKE K 123 3.00 24% 3.30    
4  TED'S CANDY GIRL May06 Mar15 Feb16 Jan25 Jan11 (gibson v)AMADOR RUIZ 123 2.50 14% 6.00    
5  ZARAGOZA May06 Apr04 Mar17 Feb25 Jan16 (baze robert)ANAYA V 120 20.00    
6  MISCHIEF MAME May01 Apr22 Apr01 Mar12   (alvarez sergio)MONTALVO C 120 8.00 12% 7.60    
7  BOSSY PEGASUS May06 Apr07 Mar25 Mar04 Feb25 (metz jeffrey)CRUZ M 123 4.00    
8  TAMA SETS DA PACE Apr01 Dec09 Nov26 Oct28   (b)RODRIGUEZ MARIA 115 15.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.