Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Friday - March 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3)-(1/3/2/4)-(1/3/2/4) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (1/3)-(2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    PK3 (1/3)-(2)-(5/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
AQU-2   WIN (2) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (2)-(2/3/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI (2)-(2/3/5)-(2/3/5) 2 $0.50 $1.00 
    DD (2)-(5/2/1) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (2)-(5/2/1)-(5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
AQU-3   WIN (5/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/1)-(1/5/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/2/1)-(1/5/2/4)-(1/5/2/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/2/1)-(5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/2/1)-(5/4)-(3/4/6) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-4   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4/1/3/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    TRI (5/4)-(5/4/1/3/2)-(5/4/1/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4)-(3/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/4)-(3/4/6)-(4/6/7) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
AQU-5   WIN (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/6)-(3/4/6)-(3/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/6)-(4/6/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/4/6)-(4/6/7)-(6/2/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-6   WIN (4/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/7)-(4/6/7/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/7)-(4/6/7/2/5)-(4/6/7/2/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (4/6/7)-(6/2/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/6/7)-(6/2/4)-(5/1/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-7   WIN (6/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/4)-(6/2/4/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/2/4)-(6/2/4/3/1)-(6/2/4/3/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/2/4)-(5/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
AQU-8   WIN (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/4)-(5/1/4/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/4)-(5/1/4/2/3)-(5/1/4/2/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   03/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DREAMAWAYSEVEN         (englehart c)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 6.00 25% 3.00    
2  HERECOMES SCARLETT Jan29 Dec04       (mice)HUAYAS (JASON) 111 3.50 ★    
3  BECAUSEOFTHEBRAVE Jan26 Jul18 Feb12 Jan14   (clarke dylan)DAVIS KATIE 125 15.00 13% 6.80    
4  GRACEFUL Jan13 Jan07 Oct16 Jul31 Jul02 (friedman mitche)DAVIS DYLAN 118 5.00 ★    
SCR  BALENTINA Feb17 Jan07       (rodrigue)GOMEZ ANTONIO 118 1.00 36% 1.80    
6  BELLA COSA Feb12 Aug05       (martin f)CARMOUCHE K 118 4.50    
 
AQU-2   03/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($35K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SARATOGA BEAUTY Jan08 Jul11 Jun06 May09 Apr16 (englehart jeffr)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 22% 3.60    
2  GREATEST LOVE Feb26 Jan20 Dec08 Jul21 Jun19 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 1.20 36% 1.80    
3  TWICE SMITTEN Jun15         (atras rob)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.00 ★    
4  BELLS ON HER TOES Feb12 Jan29 Dec30 Dec18 Sep23 (metivier ric)HARKIE K 123 20.00    
5  ICY REPLY Mar05 Feb26 Feb04 Jan16 Jan03 (sanchez-salomon)CANCEL ERIC 120 8.00 ★    
SCR  STENCIL Jun05 Apr28 Mar31 Mar04 Feb04 (follett norman)BROWN DALTON 120 10.00 19% 4.20    
 
AQU-3   03/17/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($14K) Purse ($28K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAFFINITY Feb20 Jan13 Dec30 Dec02 Oct27 (rodriguez r)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 1.80 ★    
1A  BASTET Sep23 Aug28 Jul27 Jun03 May06 (rodr)HUAYAS (JASON) 113 1.80 7% 13.90    
2  FREDDYMO FACTOR Jan28 Jun25 Apr29 Apr02 Mar11 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 120 2.50 16% 5.30    
SCR  LONDON GOLD Mar12 Feb12 Jan29 Jan12 Dec18 (persaud rand)TORRES A 113 6.00 ★    
4  EASY PLAY Feb20 Jan29 Jan15 Jun20 Jun06 (noda orlando)DAVIS KATIE 120 15.00 ★    
5  RUN UP THE SCORE Dec10 Nov18 Oct20 Sep22 Aug12 (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 122 2.50 56% 0.80    
6  IDAKA Jan12 Nov17 Oct08 Aug13 Jun04 (barker edwa)MARTINEZ R 122 12.00    
7  MORE MANGO Feb12 Jan12 Dec18 Dec01 Oct13 (ferrar)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 15.00    
 
AQU-4   03/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 3 F PT- 2:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COOLCALM COLLECTED         (hills )MARAGH RAMSAY 120 5.00 ★    
  (by COLLECTED out of GOOD NEWS TODAY by FLYING PASTER)
2  MAYHEM MISS Jan29         (brown r)CARMOUCHE K 120 8.00 ★    
  (by CARPE DIEM (FR) out of MAYHEM MIZZ by EXCHANGE RATE)
3  TOOSHAY         (trites a)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 10.00 ★    
  (by MO TOWN out of SAPPHIRE SPITFIRE by AWESOME AGAIN)
4  RISK FREE Feb17 Jan29 Jan07 Dec15 Nov10 (delauro edward )CANCEL ERIC 120 2.00 22% 3.50    
  (by AMERICAN FREEDOM out of KEEP CROSSING by ISTAN)
5  SPELTERINI Feb17 Jan07 Nov05 Oct02 Aug21 (mott i)DAVIS DYLAN 120 1.00 52% 0.90    
  (by BERNARDINI out of KEEPSHERCOOL by SMART STRIKE)
6  MY GIRL JAL Feb17         (legall ricar)SAMUEL L 120 12.00    
  (by PALACE out of DYNAMITE DAME by EL PRADO (IRE))
 
AQU-5   03/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  PRESSURE Mar04 Jun21 May03 Apr08 Mar25 (rodriguez ru)TORRES A 118 3.50 ★    
2  OPEN TIL MIDNIGHT Jan08 Dec11 Oct30 Feb11   (eng)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 125 10.00    
3  AFJAN Feb18 Jan07 Dec09 Nov18 Oct15 (morley thom)MCCARTHY TREVOR 127 3.00 43% 1.40    
4  ACHILLES HEEL Feb19 Jan28 Jan07 Dec02 Nov05 (rodriguez rud)FRANCO MANUEL 125 4.50 25% 3.00    
SCR  GOING IN STYLE Jan01 Dec04 Oct28 Sep18 Aug22 (bernardini juan)CANCEL ERIC 120 12.00 ★    
6  NORGAY Feb19 Feb02 Jan19 Jan08 Dec09 (aren)HUAYAS (JASON) 120 5.00 8% 12.30    
7  CLASH A. J. Feb25 Feb11 Feb02 Jan14 Jan01 (jones eduard)HARKIE K 125 12.00    
8  LEGENDARY LORE Dec18 Nov25 Apr23 Mar05 Feb11 (morey e)DAVIS DYLAN 125 4.00    
 
AQU-6   03/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3 F PT- 3:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUNA LOCA Feb19 Jan06 Nov26 Oct08 Aug18 (duggan p)CARMOUCHE K 120 6.00    
2  SWEETEST PRINCESS Feb19 Jan14 Nov18 Oct08 Sep15 (weaver george)CANCEL ERIC 122 5.00 ★    
3  HARLAN'S BOND Feb20         (donk davi)VARGAS A 120 12.00    
4  MIDTOWN LIGHTS Feb17 Dec17 Dec03 Oct28 Sep17 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 120 2.00 44% 1.30    
5  LAVON Feb24 Jan19 Dec16 Oct30 Sep02 (coffey m)DAVIS A 122 20.00 ★    
6  MONROE Feb11         (pletcher a)DAVIS DYLAN 120 2.50 25% 3.00    
7  I'MHAVINGAMOMENT Feb19 Dec30       (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.50 9% 10.70    
 
AQU-7   03/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($84K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TONED UP Feb24 Jan28 Dec30 Dec01 Oct28 (chichakly amira)DAVIS KATIE 118 5.00 ★    
2  MOVIE MOXY Feb10 Jan29 Dec30 Dec04 Oct29 (rice)HUAYAS (JASON) 111 3.00 17% 5.00    
3  MOMMASGOTTARUN Jan26 Jan12 Dec31 Nov13 Oct06 (rice linda)CANCEL ERIC 120 2.50 ★    
4  HONEY MONEY Feb12 Dec29 Dec11 Nov20 Oct19 (atras rob)DAVIS DYLAN 120 3.50 16% 5.30    
5  SELF ISOLATION Feb10 Jan21 Dec03 Nov11 Oct27 (jacobson davi)FRANCO MANUEL 123 10.00    
6  PHAROAH'S HEART Feb24 Dec09 Jun02 Apr02 Feb12 (nevin michelle)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00 36% 1.80    
 
AQU-8   03/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMPIRE SKY Jan12 Nov18 Sep25 Aug27 Aug07 (crook-demasi ka)CARMOUCHE K 125 1.80 19% 4.40    
  (by KLIMT out of ILLUSIONAL SKY by SKY MESA)
2  SCHERZANDO Apr28 Mar31 Mar05 Feb04 Jan14 (scia)HUAYAS (JASON) 118 5.00 ★    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of FLEET STREAK by MORE THAN READY)
3  TIE BREAKER Feb17 Oct20 Aug15     (dug)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 125 12.00 ★    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of SHE'LL BE RIGHT by SKY MESA)
4  ON THE LEDGE Feb09 Dec31       (nevin )MARAGH RAMSAY 118 4.00 8% 11.30    
  (by MAJESTIC CITY out of BILEAPS AND BOUNDS by DISCO RICO)
5  TEN CENT TOWN Jul29 Jun24       (morey e)DAVIS DYLAN 118 3.00 51% 1.00    
  (by REDESDALE out of HELEONOR RUGBY by TRIBAL RULE)
6  SUPERB SURPRISE         (bar)WORRIE SHIVNARINE 125 6.00    
  (by GIANT SURPRISE out of MIZ LYNNE KELLY by LANGFUHR)
7  CENTRAL STATION Mar04         (jerke)HERNANDEZ OMAR 111 30.00    
  (by CENTRAL BANKER out of FLOMAR by TWO PUNCH)
8  STONECOLDWARRIOR Dec15 Nov27       (clarke dylan)OLVER MADISON 118 20.00    
  (by BUSTIN STONES out of NORTHERN WARRIOR by DESERT WARRIOR)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.