Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Oaklawn Park
Saturday - January 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

OP-1   WIN (7/9/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/9/5/4)-(7/9/5/4/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/9/5/4)-(7/9/5/4/6)-(7/9/5/4/6) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/9/5/4)-(4/10/2/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
OP-2   WIN (4/10/2/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/10/2/3/8)-(4/10/2/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/10/2/3/8)-(4/10/2/3/8)-(4/10/2/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/10/2/3/8)-(5/2/9) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/10/2/3/8)-(5/2/9)-(4/9/1/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
OP-3   WIN (5/2/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/9)-(5/2/1/9) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (5/2/9)-(5/2/1/9)-(5/2/1/9) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (5/2/9)-(4/9/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/9)-(4/9/1/6)-(3/4/8/10) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
OP-4   WIN (4/9/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/9/1/6)-(4/9/1/6/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/9/1/6)-(4/9/1/6/3)-(4/9/1/6/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/9/1/6)-(3/4/8/10) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/9/1/6)-(3/4/8/10)-(2/6/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
OP-5   WIN (3/4/8/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/4/8/10)-(3/4/8/10/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/4/8/10)-(3/4/8/10/5)-(3/4/8/10/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/4/8/10)-(2/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/4/8/10)-(2/6/3)-(11/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
OP-6   WIN (2/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/3)-(2/6/3/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/3)-(2/6/3/5/1)-(2/6/3/5/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (2/6/3)-(11/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/6/3)-(11/4)-(10/7/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
OP-7   WIN (11/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (11/4)-(11/4/2/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (11/4)-(11/4/2/9)-(11/4/2/9) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (11/4)-(10/7/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (11/4)-(10/7/2)-(4/7/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
OP-8   WIN (10/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (10/7/2)-(10/7/2/11/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/7/2)-(10/7/2/11/9)-(10/7/2/11/9) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (10/7/2)-(4/7/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/7/2)-(4/7/6/1)-(5/6/1/10/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
OP-9   WIN (4/7/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/6/1)-(4/7/6/1/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/7/6/1)-(4/7/6/1/3)-(4/7/6/1/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/7/6/1)-(5/6/1/10/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
OP-10   WIN (5/6/1/10/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/6/1/10/9)-(5/6/1/10/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/6/1/10/9)-(5/6/1/10/9)-(5/6/1/10/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
OP-1   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($26.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WILD BIZNESS Jan30         (milligan )DE CRUZ 125 30.00    
THE X FACTOR Jan13 Dec17 Oct11 Sep28 Sep05 (martin wi)TRIANA JR 125 12.00    
UNIFIED GURL Jan07 Dec11 Nov11 Oct07   (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 6.00    
ALITA Jan13 Oct24 Oct10 Sep12 Aug24 (puhl kim)BOWEN ROCCO 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
SODDY DAISY Jan04 Dec11 Nov10 Mar05 Jan22 (gonzalez lilia)BAZE C 125 10.00 5% 19.00    
FIRST FROST Oct29 Sep29 Jul16     (milligan all)MEDELLIN ERICK 120 8.00    
LUNCH LADY Jun29 May29       (moquett ronald )ZIMMERMAN R 125 1.80 42% 1.40    
FANCY HILL Jan07         (martin timot)JORDAN R 119 20.00    
MARTIQUE MISS Dec28 Dec08 Nov10 Oct18 Mar20 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 2.00 33% 2.10    
10  GO GO GO Dec10 Sep19       (villafranco )CASTILLO ISAAC 125 15.00    
 
OP-2   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($34K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DEPART Dec18 May01 Apr09 Mar26 Mar12 (milligan all)MEDELLIN ERICK 116 20.00    
ASPEN CLUB         (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 118 4.50 21% 3.70    
BOTANY Dec18 Nov30 Nov03 Oct01 Sep15 (moquett ro)ASMUSSEN J 121 10.00 9% 10.10    
LORD M Dec18 Apr09 Mar26 Feb19   (moquett ronal)CABRERA DAVID 121 2.50 24% 3.20    
BRASKA Jan01 Jul17 Jun30 Jun23 Jun09 (cline n)HARR KELSI 121 20.00    
ONEIGHTHUNDREDCASH Apr22 Mar18 Jan22 Jan01   (mason ingrid)GONZALEZ ELVIN 118 15.00    
WARNING LABEL Dec18 Jun30 Jun08 May29 May08 (cline n)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 20.00    
SUPER GEEK Dec18 Dec09 Apr22 Apr02 Mar20 (villafranco )CASTILLO ISAAC 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
DRIVER Dec18 Sep16 Aug19 Feb17 Jan27 (martin timoth)PUSAC ALBERTO 118 30.00    
10  PEACE DOG May07 Apr09 Mar18 Feb26 Feb12 (witt erni)TORRES A 121 1.60 22% 3.60    
11  LOU'S ARROW Dec18 Oct21 Sep19 Sep06 Aug20 (martin timot)JORDAN R 118 30.00    
 
OP-3   01/21/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($34K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ELI'S GIRL Dec30 Dec10 Oct06 Sep15 Aug17 (stuart clinto)CABRERA DAVID 123 5.00    
MIDNIGHT'S GIRL Nov18 Oct22 Sep11 Aug04 Jun18 (rosin cot)RODRIGUEZ A 120 4.50 34% 1.90    
EXPENSIVE LIAISON Nov11 Oct21 Sep23 Aug26   (petalino joe)QUINONEZ S 117 20.00    
BACHELORETTE Dec30 Nov02 Oct07 Aug29 Aug01 (moysey chelsey)HIRALDO JOHN 120 8.00    
RUSSIARUSSIARUSSIA Dec30 Oct08 Sep05 Jul17 Jun04 (villafranco )CASTILLO ISAAC 123 3.00 35% 1.90    
LADY ENVOY Dec30 Nov24 Nov10 Oct21 Sep23 (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 6.00    
SCR  CANDY KICK Dec30 Oct29 Sep30 Aug14 Jun19 (mason ingrid)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 2.50    
GRAYDAWN DAY Jan01 Nov18 Nov07 Oct26 Oct08 (jacquot gene)GONZALEZ ELVIN 120 15.00    
HAL'S DREAM Dec30 Nov25 Mar05 Feb05   (compton g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
OP-4   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($103K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ADALINE JULIA Dec30 Oct26       (diodoro r)TORRES A 126 3.50 16% 5.10    
PIONEER PARADE Dec31 Oct30 Sep24     (divito p)JUAREZ NIK 117 15.00    
COMEDY ACT Dec18 Nov20 Oct01 Jul30 Jun17 (morse l)BEJARANO R 123 8.00    
HYPERSPORT Dec09 Oct29 May01 Mar26 Feb19 (mason ingrid)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 1.40 29% 2.50    
DANCE IT Jan01 Jun26 May27 Mar31   (asmussen)SANTANA JR 123 10.00    
BYZANTINE May04 Apr02 Feb19 Jan14   (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
KANCANCUTIE Nov18 Oct06 Sep05 Jul18   (cates al)HARR KELSI 123 20.00    
SCR  SHE'S STORMING Jan13 Dec09       (hewitt micha)JORDAN R 115 30.00    
KANT BELIEVE IT Jan01 Dec09 Nov20 Oct19 Sep23 (divito p)BAZE C 123 3.00 27% 2.70    
 
OP-5   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KRUSIN ROCKET Jan06 Feb13       (martin wi)DE CRUZ 125 6.00    
ALL IN GOOD TIME Dec18 Jan01       (martin timot)JORDAN R 125 12.00    
IMPOVERISHED Jan01         (deville j)BEJARANO R 125 2.50 62% 0.60    
ATTA PARTY Dec18 Nov11 Oct22 Mar11 Jan29 (silva mig)TORRES A 125 1.60 12% 7.60    
BLACK APPLE Dec31         (ortiz jo)SANTANA JR 119 8.00    
ROYAL DE BE Dec18 Nov22 Oct21 Oct12 Sep26 (williams bla)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 30.00    
OTHER TIMES May08 Apr30 Apr15 Apr01 Mar24 (roberts st)MICHEL MICKAELLE 125 30.00    
ROSIE'S BOY Jan01         (mcbride d)HARR KELSI 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
PERIPATETIC Dec18 Nov19 Oct28 Oct02 Sep03 (litfin nevada)CABRERA DAVID 125 20.00    
10  FLASHY BOY GOES Dec29         (broberg karl)MOJICA O 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
11  FETCHS BRAHM Dec18 May07 Apr08 Feb12 Jan09 (fires h)COURT K 125 20.00    
12  WORK ALL DAY Jan01         (hewitt michae)BAILEY CHEL-C 125 20.00    
SCR  FINBARFUREY Jan01 Dec16 Sep15     (cline n)HARR KELSI 125 30.00    
SCR  HEART HEADED ARKY Jan01 Dec18 Nov11 Oct22 Jul18 (loy dewaine)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 20.00    
 
OP-6   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($150K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CONNIE K Dec30 Nov02 Jun11 May06 Apr16 (morse l)COURT K 122 12.00    
  (by STREET STRATEGY out of INDIAN CLARKIE by INDIAN CHARLIE)
HOT AND SULTRY Dec30 Jul01 Jan23     (casse w)CABRERA DAVID 122 1.80 59% 0.70    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of HOT WATER by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
I'M THE BOSS OF ME Dec17 Oct28 Apr16 Apr02 Feb20 (compton g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 5% 18.00    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of GLORY PARK by DEPUTY COMMANDER)
LISETTE Jan14 Dec10 Sep05 Jun10 Apr30 (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 115 20.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of CORDOBA by UNBRIDLED)
SARAH HARPER Dec17 Nov06 Oct09 Aug20 Jan22 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 1.40    
  (by VANCOUVER out of MARTZ by SCAT DADDY)
PERFECT HAPPINESS Dec03 Nov10 May29 Apr30 Mar20 (hartman chris)JUAREZ NIK 122 3.50 10% 9.30    
  (by MAJESTICPERFECTION out of DIVINE HAPPINESS by DIVINE PARK)
 
OP-7   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SPARK (PER) Jan01 Dec01 Nov05 Oct21 Sep17 (quinonez natha)QUINONEZ S 123 30.00    
RED LABEL Nov24 Oct12 Sep18 Jul17 Jun22 (diodoro robertino)MOJICA O 123 2.50    
SCR  SHACKLEFORD STRONG Jan07 Sep18 Jun30     (rosin w)HIRALDO JOHN 123 20.00    
R DOC Dec16 Nov14 Nov07 Oct14 Sep23 (keithan rach)GONZALEZ ELVIN 123 12.00 8% 11.20    
TITLE SHOT Jan01 Nov10 Oct17 Sep14 Aug20 (jordan to)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 12.00    
SCR  PRODIGIOUS BAY Oct15 Sep24 Feb25 Jan01   (moquett e)BEJARANO R 123 10.00 18% 4.60    
POLTERER Dec30 Nov02       (compton g)RODRIGUEZ A 123 15.00    
WESLEYAN Dec09 Oct19 Oct09 Sep11 Jun12 (martin timot)JORDAN R 125 20.00    
BELFAST BOY Jan07 Nov16 Oct12 Sep18 Aug20 (hiles rick)CABRERA DAVID 123 8.00    
10  TOTALIZER Dec10 Nov10 Oct26 Sep15 Aug27 (diodoro r)TORRES A 123 3.00    
11  GRAPNEL Jan07 Nov11 Oct05 Aug11 May14 (haran john)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 3.50 50% 1.00    
 
OP-8   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 3 ALL PT- 4:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CRAVENSWORTH Nov24         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 121 20.00    
  (by GIRVIN out of CABALES by PULPIT)
BYE BYE RAY Nov07         (fincher t)TORRES A 121 6.00 15% 5.50    
  (by RANSOM THE MOON out of TANGO JULIET by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
APRIL FOOLS ANDY         (moysey chelsey)HIRALDO JOHN 121 20.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
DATS MR. MO         (gibson jonas)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 15.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of LAKE NAIVASHA by EMPIRE MAKER)
WINDTAPPER WIN         (roberts stanl)BAILEY CHEL-C 121 30.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of WIND CHEATER by FORESTRY)
HARD SPUN FANTASY         (von donnie)BAZE C 121 20.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of EMERALD POND by MORE THAN READY)
BEN'S LEGACY Dec31         (divito james )CABRERA DAVID 121 5.00 25% 2.90    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of AUTUMNAL by FORESTRY)
NAUTICAL STAR         (quinonez natha)QUINONEZ S 121 20.00    
  (by DIXIE CHATTER out of KISS ME CHOCOLATE by EVANSVILLE SLEW)
KINGDOM         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 121 8.00    
  (by GOLDEN LAD out of MISS MANATEE by SMARTY JONES)
10  LARK'S MISCHIEF Dec10 Nov19       (asmussen ste)CASTILLO ISAAC 121 1.60 35% 1.90    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MISS BESILU by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
11  J J'S JOKER Dec10 Oct30       (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 3.50    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CABBAGE KEY by A.P. INDY)
 
OP-9   01/21/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($107K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BACKGROUND Aug14 Jun25 May26 May01 Apr02 (puhich mike)BOWEN ROCCO 119 15.00 9% 10.00    
GO EMI Dec11 Nov24 Nov10 Oct05 Sep22 (gonzalez lilia)BAZE C 119 6.00    
SPA CITY Dec26 Nov25 Sep29 Sep01 Jul09 (kenneally eddie)JUAREZ NIK 124 12.00    
CADDO RIVER Dec17 Jul02 Jun05 May01 Mar18 (cox h)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 2.00 33% 2.00    
DECISION MAKER Nov12 Oct23 Sep30 Sep10 Jul01 (van berg )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00    
MYSTIC NIGHT Nov11 Aug04 Apr15 Feb04   (mott ril)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 12% 7.30    
TRIDENT HIT Feb19 Jan28 Jan09     (moquett e)BEJARANO R 119 3.00 23% 3.40    
 
OP-10   01/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 3 F PT- 5:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PATE Dec11 Nov11 Oct19     (stuart c)BEJARANO R 121 4.50 9% 10.50    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of READY REPLY by MORE THAN READY)
GOLDCREST         (asmussen ste)CASTILLO ISAAC 121 15.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of SHE BE CLASSY by TOCCET)
LITTLE DIXIE         (moquett r)TORRES A 121 15.00    
  (by UNION RAGS out of SANAAYA by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  CECILE (IRE) Nov16         (schultz lindsay)BAZE C 121 15.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of GREAT LOOK by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
KID'S LAST LAUGH Dec31 Nov18       (mcpeek kennet)CABRERA DAVID 121 3.50 39% 1.60    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of KID SILVER by SILVER GHOST)
INTO LOVE Dec31 Sep25       (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 2.50 26% 2.90    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of BEST OF TIMES by MINESHAFT)
KIRBY KAYE         (von do)GONZALEZ ELVIN 121 20.00    
  (by LEA out of THIS IS HOW by INDIAN CHARLIE)
INSENSITIVE         (anderson dou)JORDAN R 121 30.00    
  (by KARUN out of HY BELLE CHAMP by TALE OF THE CAT)
DIVINELY BOLT Nov25 Oct23 Oct02 Sep11 Aug07 (hartman chris)JUAREZ NIK 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SUPER DIVINE by DIVINE PARK)
10  JUST AN ANGEL Jun17         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 121 8.00 7% 13.80    
  (by JUSTIFY out of BATTLEFIELD ANGEL by PROUD CITIZEN)
SCR  BOOGIE WOOGIE GAL         (sharp joe)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 10.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of MISS SUBTLE by MISREMEMBERED)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.