Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - October 02, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   10/02/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 2 ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TSURIS Sep03 Aug18       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
2  EASY BIG BOY Sep18 Aug27 Jul22 Jul02 Jun10 (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 2.50 19% 4.10    
3  HE'S A GOOD DANCER Sep25 Aug28 Jul02     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
4  BIG BEEMSTER Sep24         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 3.00 53% 0.90    
5  WILDERZAR         (cash l)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
6  VASY SAYS NYET         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00 ★    
7  GIANT AWAKENING Aug31 Jul28 Jul08     (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 114 6.00 ★    
SCR  MAESTOSO         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 6% 16.10    
 
CD-2   10/02/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANARY Aug10 Jul07 Jun08 May11 Apr29 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00    
2  HONEY RUN Sep10 Aug27 Jun29 Jun03 Apr28 (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.00 ★    
3  CANT BE TOUCHED Sep18 Aug19 Mar11 Jan22   (cano juan )HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 32% 2.10    
4  LEGERITY Aug20 Jul03 Jun17 Apr14 Jan23 (mcgee paul)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.00 24% 3.10    
5  DISTORTED SECRETS Sep22 May31 May08 Apr15 Mar20 (deville ca)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 13% 6.60    
SCR  EDGEE ANGEL Sep21 Aug28 Jul06 Feb24   (kin)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 121 12.00 ★    
 
CD-3   10/02/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHILDERS Sep23 Aug18       (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.00 41% 1.40    
SCR  OWN THE FIELD Aug31         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 3.00 ★    
3  TUMBARUMBA         (lynch bri)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 ★    
4  BABY BILLY         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 10.00    
5  CORTESE Sep21 Jul30 Jun26 Jun09   (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 36% 1.80    
SCR  PAPPA'S DREAM         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00    
7  ATKINS         (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 ★    
 
CD-4   10/02/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOUNTAIN GHOST Aug19 Jul16 Jun24 Apr24 Feb23 (wiggins lo)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00    
2  COMMANDER COMPTON Sep03 Aug12 Jun11 May14 Apr02 (bauer phi)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 1.60 24% 3.10    
3  CONSIDER Sep20 Aug25 Aug15 Aug04 Jul07 (lauer michael)ELLIOTT JANE 124 12.00    
4  BRONZE BEAST Sep16 Jun11 May22 Mar25 Mar10 (rouck l)RIQUELME J 122 8.00 10% 9.50    
5  DROP ANCHOR Sep16 Aug23 Jul21 Jun11 May14 (walsh brendan)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 ★    
6  CORN POP Sep20 Aug13 Jun15 May26 Apr22 (deville carl )MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 32% 2.10    
7  PLEMMONSTON Sep16 Aug23 Jun22 May30 May22 (leonard g)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00 ★    
 
CD-5   10/02/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONEY RUN Aug19         (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
2  OLAZABAL Sep18 Aug28 Aug06     (delgado gusta)MORALES EDGAR 119 4.50 ★    
3  SALTA Jun18 May22       (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 114 4.00 21% 3.80    
4  FUNNY UNCLE Aug29         (vance d)COURT K 119 15.00    
5  LOUISIANIMAL         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 8.00 ★    
6  BOXSTER Aug20 Jul02 Jun02     (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 3.00 52% 0.90    
7  BRILLIANT COLORS Jul17         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
8  DISTORTED PRO         (cox brad)SANTANA JR 119 4.50 5% 19.00    
 
CD-6   10/02/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAMILY MAN Jul17 Jun29 May15 Apr14   (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.60 30% 2.40    
2  JUSTIN'S QUEST Aug30 Aug09 Jun25 Apr29 Feb20 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 12% 7.20    
3  EAGLE PASS Sep15 Jun29 Jun18 Jun08 May27 (vance dav)LEPAROUX R 122 15.00    
4  HOME RUN TRICK Jun29 Jun08 May01 Mar17 Mar06 (brennan )SANTANA JR 122 6.00 19% 4.20    
5  ALL WEST Sep25 Aug25 Aug02 Jun29 Jun18 (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.00 ★    
6  LEADER OF MEN Aug02 Jun29 Jun08 May08 Apr09 (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.50 13% 6.70    
7  BEAR OAK Sep08 Aug16 Jul06 Jun08 May27 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 124 6.00    
 
CD-7   10/02/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLIRTING GIRL         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 7% 13.20    
2  LACIE BE GOOD Aug06         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
3  METAPHYSICAL Sep08 Aug06       (hiles a)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00 5% 18.50    
4  DESTINE TO RACE Sep14 Aug19       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 119 8.00    
5  LADY SQUARED Sep16 Aug06 Jul15 Jun17   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.50    
6  ALPHA BELLA Aug28         (pletcher t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 24% 3.20    
7  EAST SHORE Sep01 Jul23 Jun17     (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00    
8  LOVIN' ON THE RUN Aug28         (stall alb)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
9  BELLA MAKER Aug14         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 6.00 20% 4.00    
10  MIDVALE Aug07         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 8.00 23% 3.30    
 
CD-8   10/02/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BREAKING NEWS (GB) Aug18 Jul20 Jun11 May16 Apr02 (contreras)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 2.50 31% 2.30    
2  MAHOMEY Jun04 Apr23 Apr09 Apr02 Feb25 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 8.00 7% 14.10    
3  KOUFAX Aug22 Jul15 Jun02 May07 Feb28 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 121 5.00 ★    
4  EXPLOSIVE Aug19 Jul02 Jun03 May21 May08 (o'neill do)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 16% 5.30    
5  LEAGUE OF LEGENDS May06 Apr09 Mar20 Feb18 Jan09 (fires h)COURT K 121 6.00    
6  MONEY MIKE Aug17 Aug06 Jun12 May04 Apr13 (cash l)BEJARANO R 121 5.00    
7  LEBLON Sep01 Aug06 Jul01 Jun02 Apr27 (foster eric)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 14% 6.40    
 
CD-9   10/02/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOVELY PRINCESS Sep03 Aug14 Jul23 Apr23   (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 120 3.50 39% 1.60    
2  MALIBU MARLEE Sep21 Aug25 Aug16 Jul24 Jul18 (kin)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 20.00    
3  HIGH FASHION Aug20 Jun24 May26 May03 Feb18 (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 8.00    
4  OUTLINING Jul23 Jun28 May19     (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 ★    
5  PARK ON THE NILE Sep13 May21 May06 Apr08   (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 3.00 26% 2.90    
6  ROC'S PRINCESS Sep18 Aug14 Jul03 Jun02   (gowan william)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00 ★    
7  SHE'S KEEN Aug20 Jul28 Jun23 May27 May06 (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50    
8  BERATE Sep10 Aug07 Jul08 May29   (mcgaughe)SANTANA JR 122 5.00 6% 16.40    
 
CD-10   10/02/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FOWLER CASTLE         (casse mark)MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
2  MAMZOOJ         (peitz dan)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00    
3  SHIPMAN Sep18 Sep03 Jul24 Jul01 Jun05 (green troy)BEJARANO R 124 4.50 17% 5.10    
4  ENGRAVE Aug13 Jun25 May20     (lobo paulo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 2.50 30% 2.40    
5  VICTORY MARCH Jan09         (calhoun william)LANERIE J 124 6.00    
6  MONTAUK POINT May07 Apr02 Feb26 Jan29   (mcgaughe)SANTANA JR 121 6.00 ★    
7  SKELLY Jul31         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 19% 4.30    
8  TOUCH CODE May30 May15 Mar19 Feb12 Jan08 (vance r)CANNON DECLAN 121 20.00 14% 6.10    
9  CHIRON Sep18 Aug05 Apr02 Mar19 Feb21 (combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 20.00    
10  ALLO ENRY Apr30 Apr03 Mar24 Feb26 Feb13 (deville carl )TALAMO JOSEPH 121 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.