Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Mahoning Valley
Thursday - November 21, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   WIN (4/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/2)-(4/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/2)-(4/5/2)-(4/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/2)-(1/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (4/5/2)-(1/2/5)-(4/2/8/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
MVR-2   WIN (1/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/5)-(1/4/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (1/2/5)-(1/4/2/5)-(1/4/2/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (1/2/5)-(4/2/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/5)-(4/2/8/7)-(6/9/5/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
MVR-3   WIN (4/2/8/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/8/7)-(4/2/8/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/8/7)-(4/2/8/7)-(4/2/8/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/2/8/7)-(6/9/5/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/2/8/7)-(6/9/5/1)-(3/8/6/4) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
MVR-4   WIN (6/9/5/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/9/5/1)-(6/9/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/5/1)-(6/9/5/1)-(6/9/5/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/9/5/1)-(3/8/6/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/9/5/1)-(3/8/6/4)-(1/9/6/4/5) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-5   WIN (3/8/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/6/4)-(3/8/6/4/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/8/6/4)-(3/8/6/4/7)-(3/8/6/4/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (3/8/6/4)-(1/9/6/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/8/6/4)-(1/9/6/4/5)-(8/2/4/5) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-6   WIN (1/9/6/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/9/6/4/5)-(1/9/6/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/9/6/4/5)-(1/9/6/4/5)-(1/9/6/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/9/6/4/5)-(8/2/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/9/6/4/5)-(8/2/4/5)-(3/1/10/5) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-7   WIN (8/2/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/2/4/5)-(8/2/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/2/4/5)-(8/2/4/5)-(8/2/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/2/4/5)-(3/1/10/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
MVR-8   WIN (3/1/10/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/10/5)-(3/1/8/10/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (3/1/10/5)-(3/1/8/10/5)-(3/1/8/10/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MVR-1   11/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($25.9K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SOOEY STRONG Nov07 Oct16 Sep18 Aug21 Aug06 (reed r)TAPARA BRANDON 122 4.00    
2  PLAIN AND SIMPLE Oct22 Sep30 Sep09 Aug28 May26 (skerrett)MARTINEZ A 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  LIBERTANGO Oct22 Oct07 Sep16 Jul05 Jun01 (skerrett jef)ROSARIO L 124 3.00    
4  CAT ON TIME Oct20 Sep26 Aug20 Jul18 Jun15 (rivelli larr)HALDAR J 124 1.00 39% 1.60    
5  CANT BE DOIN THAT Oct15 Jan10 Dec08 Nov17 Oct08 (reed r)OLIVEROS CHARLE 124 12.00 22% 3.50    
6  SPAN Oct29 Oct15 Sep19 Sep10 Aug24 (blea tony)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 124 15.00    
7  MASTER OF THE NITE Nov04 Oct22 Sep30 Aug19 Jul30 (schuster robin)DIAZ I 122 20.00    
 
MVR-2   11/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COUNTESS COLETTE Oct23 Sep23 Aug07 Jul04 Jan11 (fadlovich me)HALDAR J 122 3.00 67% 0.50    
2  BEAUTIFUL CHARADE Nov05 Sep17 Aug28 Aug10 Jul02 (rivera nestor )DIAZ I 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  IAMGOINGTOMAKEIT Sep27 Sep13 Aug21 Aug02   (cline c)HERMAN NOEL 117 10.00    
4  STICK AROUND Sep23 Aug10 Jul22 Jun18 May18 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 122 3.50 ★    
5  EMERALD EYES Nov05 Aug29 Aug14 Jul25 Jun26 (salcedo ramon)REYES FRANK 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  BANANA PUDDING Nov06 Oct01 Sep09 Aug13 Jun23 (pappada julie)BRACHO A 124 2.00    
7  FLAME FOR REAL Oct21 Oct07 Sep17 Aug10 Jul23 (zielinski ri)AYALA J 122 4.00    
 
MVR-3   11/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($15K) Purse ($21.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOTROD BOBBY Oct29 Oct08 Sep04 Feb14 Jan24 (morales s)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 124 12.00    
2  ROLL ON BIG O Oct29 Oct01 Sep04 Aug22 Jul31 (fadlovich me)HALDAR J 122 2.50 22% 3.60    
3  LIL RICKYS JEWEL Nov07 Oct23 Sep28 Aug31 Aug02 (corriveau john)HOUGHTON D 126 6.00    
4  PALACE TEMPTATION Oct26 Oct03 Sep21 Sep13 Aug16 (faulkner ro)NUNEZ Y 124 4.50 23% 3.40    
5  MARVIN'S EXPRESS Oct29 Jun04 May15 Apr24 Feb28 (tooley jennifer)AVILES YAN 124 8.00    
6  STORMED OUT Nov07 Sep11 Aug16 Jul19 Jun27 (cline robert )CEDILLO MAURO 126 3.50    
7  GIFT OF OAK Oct29 Oct11 Sep17 Aug27 Aug06 (haehn ter)POTTINGER MICHAEL 119 10.00 8% 11.80    
8  ORVILLE B Oct29 Oct03 Sep12 Jul31 Jun19 (morales m)REYES FRANK 124 5.00 10% 8.60    
 
MVR-4   11/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 MUDDY Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($14.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VOORHEES Nov02 Oct09 Sep18 Aug27 Aug07 (galloway )POTTINGER MICHAEL 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SIR Nov02 Oct07 Sep24 Sep05 Aug26 (johnson gary)BERRIOS HECTOR 124 10.00    
3  SALTA Oct28 Oct07 Sep16 Mar25 Mar12 (radosevich jus)DIAZ I 126 2.50    
4  SMALL SAILOR Oct23 Oct10 Sep24 Sep05 Aug13 (tumblin an)SMITH DIOGDINABI 124 15.00    
5  ONE RED CENT Oct15 Sep18 Sep07 Aug21 Aug12 (bernardini ja)BARBARAN ERIK 122 8.00 13% 6.90    
6  NOTORIOUS SIXOHTWO Oct30 Oct19 Sep23 Aug31 Aug22 (urieta johanna)PEREZ A 122 1.80 41% 1.40    
7  RED DEVOLUTION Oct25 Oct11 Sep20 Sep04 Aug15 (nazario pedro)CEDILLO MAURO 124 4.00    
SCR  MAC PANDOWDY Oct24 Sep28 Sep03 Aug17 Jul30 (blea jr)REYES FRANK 124 20.00    
9  MEROKEE Nov12 Oct23 Oct09 Sep25 Sep02 (pappada julie )HOUGHTON D 124 15.00 23% 3.40    
 
MVR-5   11/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 2 F PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MO SWIFT         (rone mike)HOUGHTON D 122 6.00    
  (by DRILL out of MO SMART by UNCLE MO)
2  SHARP LADY Nov07 Aug06       (vazquez iva)SEVERINO VICTOR 122 15.00    
  (by JAC'S FACT out of STRUMMING by CURE THE BLUES)
3  WATCH ME DADDY Nov07         (radosevich je)BRACHO A 122 3.00 46% 1.20    
  (by FLAGSHIP out of PLEASE DADDY by THE DADDY)
4  LIL BIT         (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NATIONAL FLAG out of CAVALLERIA by LANGFUHR)
5  EBONY'S SECRET Aug06 Jul01       (go)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 20.00    
  (by DRILL out of SCARLET GIRL by LOFT (GER))
6  MOBIL ENSIGN Nov07 Oct23 Oct08 Sep24 Sep12 (faulkner ro)NUNEZ Y 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MOBIL out of PERSONAL NOTEBOOK by MINER'S MARK)
7  HEAVENS EUREKA         (tumblin andrew)REYES FRANK 122 20.00 ★    
  (by CORFU out of CAMP FAIRFAX R N by FOREST CAMP)
8  KOZY NIGHT Nov07         (smith larry)DIAZ I 122 2.50 28% 2.60    
  (by TENKOZ out of WOODYS NIGHT WATCH by MONDAVI)
9  BIONIC SAINT Nov07 Oct23 Oct08     (faulkner rodn)ZONETT KEYNER 122 20.00    
  (by BIONDETTI out of DENIRO'S SAINT by SAINTS N' SINNERS)
10  DRILL BLITZ         (radosevi)MARTINEZ A 122 10.00    
  (by DRILL out of GOLD INK by INVISIBLE INK)
SCR  I BELONG FIRST Nov07 Oct10       (fadlovich me)HALDAR J 122 4.50    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of COSI CELESTE by BERNARDINI)
 
MVR-6   11/21/2024 3630ft DIRT RC9 MUDDY Starter Allowance ($5K) Purse ($17.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOADED ONCE MORE Oct28 Oct07 Sep29 Aug25 Aug11 (bernardini ja)BARBARAN ERIK 124 4.50 36% 1.70    
2  CHESS NOT CHECKERS Nov04 Oct02 Sep04 Aug20 Aug06 (radosevich je)BRACHO A 124 10.00    
3  TWEET AWAY ROBIN Oct28 Oct02 Sep14 Aug24 Aug14 (nazario pedro)CEDILLO MAURO 126 2.50    
4  BOOGIE BOOGEE Oct26 Sep19 Aug01 Jul09 Jun18 (szczepanski e)TOLEDO S 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
5  FULL TIME STRUTIN Nov12 Oct28 Oct19 Sep19 Sep04 (gonzalez donaciano)PAUCAR E 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  MISS FUSSY PANTS Nov05 Oct18 Sep01 Jun26 May04 (farrior )MARTINEZ A 124 5.00 10% 8.90    
7  JAMAICAN TRAFFIC Oct24 Oct15 Sep28 Sep07 Aug31 (bahena fe)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 124 12.00    
8  SABELLE Oct19 Aug20 Jul22 May30 May04 (ca)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 8.00    
9  EPICUREAN Nov12 Oct28 Jul03 Jun03 May22 (rivera)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 3.00 30% 2.40    
 
MVR-7   11/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC10 MUDDY Allowance Purse ($35.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHAKE THE FROST Oct26 Oct09 Sep19 Sep06 Aug23 (hamm timothy)DIAZ I 124 3.00    
2  MAMAS HOME COOKING Oct23 Oct08 Sep19 Aug31 Aug15 (cline )BATISTA ALBERTO 124 10.00 8% 11.90    
SCR  ORFANO Oct23 Oct03 Dec30 Nov27 Oct25 (estvanko rich)BRACHO A 124 8.00    
4  LINO'S KID Oct23 Sep26 Aug16 Jul19 Jun27 (galloway khade)HOUGHTON D 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  GOLDSTRIKER Nov12 Oct29 Sep26 Aug22 Aug03 (morales m)REYES FRANK 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  DOUBLE AGENT Oct29 Sep26 Aug31 Aug02 Jul06 (hamm timoth)BLANCHE RISHAWN 119 6.00    
7  IRONCLAD ALIBI Nov06 Oct11 Aug19 Aug05 Oct28 (zielinski ri)AYALA J 122 4.00    
8  PRIVATE MOMENT Nov06 Oct26 Sep23 Sep04 Aug05 (hurley mary )HALDAR J 122 2.00 55% 0.80    
 
MVR-8   11/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC5 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:06
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FORMYBOYS Oct11 Sep30 Sep09 Aug28 Jul29 (radosevi)MARTINEZ A 126 5.00 21% 3.70    
  (by TAPIDOR out of NIPPY'S VENTURE by MAUK FOUR)
2  INDY'S HOPE Oct22 Oct11 Sep30 Sep16 Aug28 (vazquez ivan)HALDAR J 124 4.50    
  (by INDY WIND out of WITHALITTLEHOPE by HOLD ME BACK)
3  SO CO MANHATTAN         (tooley jennifer)AVILES YAN 124 3.50 58% 0.70    
  (by MUSIC CITY out of OUR GOLDEN SNITCH by PUT IT BACK)
4  JUST A ROCKSTAR Oct07         (tumblin andrew)PEREZ A 124 8.00    
  (by DANZA out of MY UPTOWN GAL by CITY ZIP)
5  FATHER FRANK Oct04 Sep21 Aug22 Aug03 Jul18 (haehn terry)BLANCHE RISHAWN 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TIDAL VOLUME out of HOLY HABIT by HOLY BULL)
SCR  RED CHIPS         (radosevich jef)HOUGHTON D 124 3.00    
  (by ITSMYLUCKYDAY out of STILL SHEA TO ME by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
7  SKUNK APE Nov02 Oct11 Sep30 Sep16 Aug28 (loudin-smith )TOLEDO S 124 20.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of QUEEN YELLENA by TOCCET)
8  HIDDEN HEART Oct11 Sep30 Sep09 Aug28   (skerrett j)SMITH DIOGDINABI 126 6.00 ★    
  (by ANIMO DE VALEROSO out of PRECOCIOUS by EXPLOIT)
9  BYRTHDAY BOY Oct22 Oct04       (erwin andrew)ZONETT KEYNER 126 20.00    
  (by BIONDETTI out of DADDY SAID by FIVE STAR DAY)
10  HURRYCANE DON Oct22 Oct07 Aug28 May10   (haehn ter)POTTINGER MICHAEL 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DARK KESTREL out of WILD ISLAND STORM by WILD HORSES)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.