Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Thursday - November 21, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (3/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/2)-(3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/2)-(3/4/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/2)-(3/4/5)-(3/2/5) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
AQU-2   WIN (3/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/5)-(3/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/5)-(3/4/5)-(3/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/4/5)-(3/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/4/5)-(3/2/5)-(2/4/5/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-3   WIN (3/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/5)-(3/6/2/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/2/5)-(3/6/2/5)-(3/6/2/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/2/5)-(2/4/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/2/5)-(2/4/5/3)-(6/7/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-4   WIN (2/4/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/5/3)-(2/4/5/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/5/3)-(2/4/5/3)-(2/4/5/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/4/5/3)-(6/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/5/3)-(6/7/1)-(2/8/1/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-5   WIN (6/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/7/1)-(6/10/8/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/1)-(6/10/8/7/1)-(6/10/8/7/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (6/7/1)-(2/8/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/7/1)-(2/8/1/3)-(2/7/3) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-6   WIN (2/8/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/8/1/3)-(2/8/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/8/1/3)-(2/8/1/3)-(2/8/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/8/1/3)-(2/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/8/1/3)-(2/7/3)-(11/6/2/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-7   WIN (2/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/3)-(2/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7/3)-(2/7/3)-(2/7/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/7/3)-(11/6/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
AQU-8   WIN (11/6/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (11/6/2/5)-(11/6/2/9/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (11/6/2/5)-(11/6/2/9/5)-(11/6/2/9/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   11/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 F PT-12:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  VANILLA SUNDAE Aug18         (pletcher a)DAVIS DYLAN 119 4.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of VANILLA BEAN BACK by EMPIRE MAKER)
SCR  ICE CREAM BOAT Oct13 Aug23       (pletcher todd)VELAZQUEZ R 119 4.00    
  (by OUTWORK out of SPECIAL TREAT by FAST PLAY)
2B  SHE'S FASCINATING Oct06         (dutrow anthony )CARMOUCHE K 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MINESHAFT out of CHARMEER by CANDY RIDE)
SCR  DELICIOUS DIVA         (mcpeek ken)RIVERA R 119 6.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of DANGEROUS DIVA by DEPUTY MINISTER)
3  KISS ME SLOW Jul21         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 1.40 46% 1.20    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of TERESA Z by SMART STRIKE)
4  KEEPTHEDREAMALIVE         (mott willia)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 3.50    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of IT TIZ WELL by ARCH)
5  SHARP SMILE Oct13 Jul21       (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 119 2.50 29% 2.40    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of CHOCOLATE POP by CUVEE)
 
AQU-2   11/21/2024 5940ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($92K) 3UP ALL PT-12:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HITTHEROADJAK Oct12 Aug31 May31 Dec02 Nov11 (sanchez-sal)LYAPUSTINA TAIS 120 6.00    
2  MORE VINO Nov03 Oct19 Oct06 Sep19 Aug21 (gober)HERNANDEZ OMAR 120 30.00    
3  YO DADDY Nov10 Oct05 Aug30 Aug17 Jul27 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 118 1.60 44% 1.30    
4  BLACK RAIN Oct26 Jul21 Jun08 Sep14 Aug20 (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 121 1.80 32% 2.20    
5  PIRATE Oct18 Sep20 Aug07 Jul05 Jun07 (pletcher a)DAVIS DYLAN 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
6  CALIFORNIA SOBER Oct31 Sep07 Aug10     (motion grah)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.50    
 
AQU-3   11/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($65K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARIANA RYE Oct20 Aug01 Jul19 Apr06 Feb24 (falcone robert )VIVES SOFIA 120 3.50    
2  THIRTEEN RED FLAGS Jul15 Jun14 Jun09 May10 Apr07 (chichakly amir)LEZCANO JOSE 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  FIRST CLASS CAT Nov01 Sep19 Jul18 Jun30 Jun20 (rice linda)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 0.80 73% 0.40    
4  MO DAMORNINGGROUCH Nov03 Sep26 Sep15 Feb17 Jan07 (keithan racha)OLVER MADISON 122 12.00    
5  POSEIDON'S MIST Oct17 Sep02 Jul21 Jun15 May17 (englehart chris)DAVIS DYLAN 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  GRACEFUL ROSE Jul21 Jul04 May09 Apr11 Mar14 (gorham michael )CARMOUCHE K 122 6.00 ★    
7  FOOLISH CHALLENGE Sep15 Sep07 Aug16 Jul12 Jun01 (potts w)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 115 10.00    
 
AQU-4   11/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BROWN DON'T STOP May27 May02 Apr12 Mar24 Feb25 (noda orlando)DAVIS KATIE 118 10.00    
2  STRAPPED Sep21 Aug31 Jul27 May18 Oct07 (rice linda)DAVIS DYLAN 121 1.60 45% 1.20    
3  IRISH TENOR Nov02 Sep27 Aug31 Jul31 Jun14 (figueroa carlo)LUZZI J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  TORPEDO RUN Oct17 Sep14 Aug03 Jul12 Sep06 (jacobs)GRISALES DANILO 123 6.00 17% 4.70    
5  BOYS CODE Oct25 Sep29 Aug29 Jul31 Jun29 (dixon k)RUIZ ELISEO 121 5.00 8% 11.30    
6  SOLO EMPIRE Oct18 Jul18 Jun28 May25 May17 (begg bent)VIVES SOFIA 120 20.00    
7  D DAY SKY Oct14 Sep21 Aug17 Jul21 May18 (giangiulio mich)CARMOUCHE K 120 2.00    
 
AQU-5   11/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($45K) 2 F PT- 2:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISCHIEVOUS TRICK Oct10 Sep20       (sciacca gary)LUZZI J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
1A  I HEARD SOMETHINGS Oct20 Sep28       (sciacca gary)DAVIS KATIE 119 10.00    
2  FIFI LA FUME Oct05 Sep13       (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 119 15.00    
3  TOXIC GIRL Nov03         (jimenez)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 114 15.00    
4  OLIVIA'S WISH Nov09 Oct27 Sep27 Aug30   (arriaga )MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 114 20.00    
5  SILENT SANDY Oct06 Sep13       (sacco greg)RIVERA R 119 8.00    
6  FURRY FOX Sep20         (dutrow)MARAGH RAMSAY 119 1.80 70% 0.40    
7  CLASSICALS FINALE Oct04 Sep20 Sep02 Aug04 Jul25 (chich)HERNANDEZ OMAR 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  PAWTUCKETSHUFFLE Sep28 Jul17       (de horacio)DAVIS DYLAN 119 5.00 ★    
9  BOURBON BLANKET Sep27 Aug30       (begg be)OLVER MADISON 119 15.00    
10  OPEN FLAME Nov03 Oct05 Aug21 Jul26   (mcpeek kenneth )CARMOUCHE K 119 3.00 ★    
 
AQU-6   11/21/2024 4290ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRINGOTTS Nov08 Oct10 Sep29 Sep15 Aug03 (samsun)MARAGH RAMSAY 120 8.00    
1A  JACKSON'S DIXIE Nov07 Oct20 Aug29 Aug02 Jul20 (samsundar rosha)OTERO AAROM 114 8.00 13% 7.00    
2  IT TAKES HEART Oct20 Aug29 Aug11 Jul20 May09 (falcone rober)FRANCO MANUEL 122 2.50 40% 1.50    
3  BOSS LADY KIM Nov07 Oct11 Nov18 Oct26 Sep22 (frangella jam)OLVER MADISON 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
4  MY FIRST LOVE Oct10 Sep15 Aug29 Jul20 Jun21 (atras rob)LEZCANO JOSE 122 4.00    
SCR  WILLFUL DESIRE Aug14 Jul07 Jun22 May16 Apr14 (rice linda)DAVIS KATIE 120 5.00    
6  VEGAS WEEKEND Nov07 Jun29 Jun15 May12 Apr04 (arriaga anton)SILVERA RUBEN 120 3.00    
7  EVERLYS GIRL Nov07 Oct20 Oct10 Sep15 Aug14 (chatte)GRISALES DANILO 122 20.00    
8  R FUNNY BIZNESS Oct10 Sep15 Aug14 Jul25 Jul02 (catalan)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 117 6.00 14% 6.20    
 
AQU-7   11/21/2024 3960ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($85K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARLAN'S BOND Jun15 May12 May05 Apr12 Mar17 (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 122 10.00    
2  A MAIZE ZING DOTIE Sep19 Aug18 Jul22 Jun17 May20 (englehart chr)FRANCO MANUEL 124 2.00 30% 2.30    
3  GONE AND FORGOTTEN Nov05 Oct21 Sep26 Sep17 Sep02 (dixon )MARAGH RAMSAY 120 15.00 7% 13.40    
4  FOXY CARA Oct20 Sep26 Aug18 Aug02 Jul07 (friedman mitche)DAVIS DYLAN 124 12.00    
5  SUE ELLEN MISHKIN Mar30 Jan19 Dec31 Dec08 Nov10 (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 3.50    
SCR  TRUE EMPRESS Nov05 Sep17 Aug28 Jul22 Jun15 (ferraro michael)PEREZ E 124 2.50    
7  MYBRONXBABY Nov01 Oct14 Sep19 Aug23 Jul17 (ryerson)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 117 4.00 27% 2.80    
 
AQU-8   11/21/2024 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LCGOLUCKY Nov07 Sep28 Sep19 Sep01 Jun21 (ferraro )MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 116 20.00    
2  SHAKIN THE BELLE Nov01 Oct03 Sep09 Aug31 Jul24 (rodriguez rudy)LEZCANO JOSE 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  NOBLE ONE May12 Mar28 Feb25 Feb02 Dec10 (pregm)HERNANDEZ OMAR 121 20.00    
4  COMANCHE PEAK (GB) Oct25 Oct05 Sep01 Jul12 Jun21 (bernardini ju)SILVERA RUBEN 124 8.00    
5  NILRUC Nov01 Sep26       (brown r)LUZZI J 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  VERY SATISFACTORY Oct05 Jul15 Jun16 Mar24 Mar07 (cox h)FRANCO MANUEL 121 3.50 22% 3.50    
7  BAD BOY BUTCH Oct17 Aug04       (sacco gregory)OLVER MADISON 121 8.00    
8  DANGEROUS DRIVER Nov01 Oct05 Aug24 Jul12 Jun06 (jimenez l)DAVIS KATIE 121 4.50    
9  BOLT D'PLATA Nov01 Oct17 Oct05 Aug04 Jul11 (terran)MARAGH RAMSAY 124 6.00 ★    
10  MIGHTY GLORY Oct25 Sep28 Aug04 Jun06 Dec10 (schettin)GOMEZ ANTONIO 121 30.00    
11  BOURBON OUTLAW Oct05 Sep01 Jul20 Jun15 Mar30 (hennig )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 116 5.00 48% 1.10    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.