Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Delta Downs
Thursday - October 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
DED-1   WIN (6/8/11/1/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/8/11/1/9)-(6/8/11/1/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/8/11/1/9)-(6/8/11/1/9)-(6/8/11/1/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/8/11/1/9)-(10/2/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/8/11/1/9)-(10/2/4/6)-(3/5/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
DED-2   WIN (10/2/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/2/4/6)-(10/2/4/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/2/4/6)-(10/2/4/6/5)-(10/2/4/6/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/2/4/6)-(3/5/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/2/4/6)-(3/5/1)-(8/5/3/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
DED-3   WIN (3/5/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/1)-(3/5/8/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/1)-(3/5/8/4/1)-(3/5/8/4/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/5/1)-(8/5/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/1)-(8/5/3/2)-(5/9/4/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
DED-4   WIN (8/5/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/5/3/2)-(8/5/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/5/3/2)-(8/5/3/2)-(8/5/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/5/3/2)-(5/9/4/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/5/3/2)-(5/9/4/8)-(6/7/9/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
DED-5   WIN (5/9/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/9/4/8)-(5/9/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/9/4/8)-(5/9/4/8)-(5/9/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/9/4/8)-(6/7/9/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/9/4/8)-(6/7/9/1)-(8/1/4/7) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
DED-6   WIN (6/7/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/7/9/1)-(6/7/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/7/9/1)-(6/7/9/1)-(6/7/9/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/7/9/1)-(8/1/4/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/7/9/1)-(8/1/4/7)-(8/5/2) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
DED-7   WIN (8/1/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/4/7)-(8/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/4/7)-(8/1/4/7)-(8/1/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/4/7)-(8/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/1/4/7)-(8/5/2)-(9/7/4/2/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
DED-8   WIN (8/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/5/2)-(8/5/3/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (8/5/2)-(8/5/3/2)-(8/5/3/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (8/5/2)-(9/7/4/2/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
DED-9   WIN (9/7/4/2/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/7/4/2/6)-(9/7/4/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/7/4/2/6)-(9/7/4/2/6)-(9/7/4/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
DED-1   10/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIAS MOONBEAM Aug11 Jul06 Jun22 May25 May03 (larrosa jua)DEL-CID VICENTE 117 5.00 5% 19.00    
2  HOT LE ROY Aug03 Jul21 Jun29 Apr29 Mar24 (larrosa jua)MELANCON JANSEN 114 8.00    
3  NATE'S REVENGE Jul08 Jun19 May12 Apr26 Mar22 (mojica edith )LOZADA CARLOS 117 8.00    
4  DEALIN' STELEN Jul06 May25 May03 Jan26 Jan04 (toups brent)STOKES A 117 20.00    
SCR  PINCH ASSAULT Aug12 Mar26 Feb25 Feb15 Feb04 (broberg karl)THORNTON G 114 2.50    
6  SERMONONTHEMOUNT Jul06 Jun09 May25 Apr26 Mar22 (gonzalez isa)DOMINGUEZ JOEL 117 6.00 30% 2.30    
7  TEMPRANO Jul30 Jun19 May21 May08 Feb18 (beavin judy)MUNOZ SERGIO 109 20.00    
8  HARD TO DENY Sep10 Aug19 Jul28 Aug14 Jul02 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 117 3.50 29% 2.40    
9  SPHEROID Jul23 Jun29 Jun02 May03 Feb10 (alberto anton)VARGAS P 117 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  COOL INDIVIDUAL Sep10 Aug11 Jul06 May20 May03 (landry allen)MAGNON H 114 10.00    
11  BIG MONEY MACHINE Jul27 Jun22 May25 May13 Apr19 (gonzalez isa)DOMINGUEZ JOEL 117 4.00 12% 7.30    
 
DED-2   10/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($25K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VALDINA DREAMS Sep12 Jul24 Jun22 May27 May11 (payne w)SUAREZ ANGEL 117 15.00    
2  TRIPLE RED ACES Aug20 Jul21 Jun17 May25 Apr28 (landry allen)MAGNON H 114 4.00 8% 11.20    
3  NINETEEN HUNDRED Sep24 Sep03 Aug06 Jun25 Sep30 (guillory henry )POMPELL L 120 15.00    
4  AUX ARCS Aug20 Jul31 Jun26 Jun04 May05 (borel renay)BOREL H 117 3.50 8% 11.50    
5  LIBERTY'S HAULER Sep17 Aug27 Jul28 Jul07 May13 (arnett g)ROMAN KEVIN 117 8.00 ★    
6  WHEELS Aug20 Jun04 May21 May07 Feb10 (martin k)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 117 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  PATIO'S PORCH Aug05 Jul03 May27     (gelner scott)DOMINGUEZ JOEL 114 20.00    
8  BORDEAUX RED Sep12 Jul13 May26 Nov10 Sep26 (brinkman brett)MELANCON G 117 6.00    
9  WICKED TOUGH Aug11 Jul13 Jun17 May13 Apr14 (west henry)STOKES A 117 20.00    
10  LAGOON Feb05 Jan18 Jan07 Dec02 Oct29 (ali anc)GREEN AUBRIE 117 2.50 63% 0.60    
SCR  DIRECTIONAL Aug27 Aug07 Jul30 Jul03 Jan13 (villafranc)ALBERT S 112 20.00    
SCR  THE BOYZ PRIORITY Jul01 May28       (ward ronnie)DEL-CID VICENTE 111 15.00    
 
DED-3   10/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($43K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPOOKY GUITAR         (latour nic)BATISTA X 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STAR GUITAR out of RAVIONETTA by TOUCH GOLD)
2  LUYV Jul09 Jun23 May28     (goins garland)MUNOZ SERGIO 115 12.00    
  (by YOCKEY'S WARRIOR out of SOUTHPINE by LAABITY)
3  OLIVIA G Mar25 Feb25 Feb04 Jan21 Dec29 (west patricia )SUAREZ ANGEL 120 4.00 58% 0.70    
  (by STRONG MANDATE out of ADRIANNE G by INDYGO SHINER)
4  LAWLESS TIMES Sep02 Dec08 Nov05 Sep27 Aug26 (calhoun wil)DEL-CID VICENTE 123 3.50 ★    
  (by CUPID out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
5  LIGHTENING MO Jul07 Jun09 May11 Mar25 Feb18 (calhoun william)MCMAHON J 120 5.00 18% 4.50    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of BAMA MO by UNCLE MO)
6  TAP IRON FIST Aug11 Jul20 May18 Apr15 Feb12 (castille ca)MELANCON JANSEN 120 8.00    
  (by IRON FIST out of AYALA STRAND by TIZNOW)
7  FLAWLESS TAKEOVER May20         (brinkman brett)POMPELL L 123 8.00    
  (by TAKEOVER TARGET out of FLAWLESS GOLD by GOLD TRIBUTE)
8  SWEET ALEXIS Sep03 Aug11 Jul07 Jun23 Mar25 (devereux patr)VARGAS P 120 5.00 ★    
  (by ASTROLOGY out of SWEET CITIZEN by PROUD CITIZEN)
9  JAX'S STARRY BRIDE Jun23 May12       (averett)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 120 20.00    
  (by STAR GUITAR out of BERMUDA BRIDE by RUNAWAY GROOM)
10  CRAFTROOM         (landry allen)DOMINGUEZ JOEL 120 8.00    
  (by INTERACTIF out of LISA by CAPITALIMPROVEMENT)
SCR  SPARKLE CITY Aug28 Aug12 Jul22 Jul13 Jun29 (zeno benjamin)ROSIER R 123 20.00    
  (by SHACKLEFORD out of WINBRANDLEX by YANKEE VICTOR)
SCR  BEAT THE DOUBLE May11 Apr26 Apr15 Feb15   (zeno b)RUIZ GARCIA 123 30.00    
  (by IDE LIKE A DOUBLE out of YOUJUSTCANTBETER by FUSAICHI PEGASUS)
 
DED-4   10/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($18K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIL ADEAU Apr20 Mar11 Feb24 Feb11 Jan21 (breaux s)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 117 6.00    
2  TWN MS MIDSHIP Sep09 Jul01 May29 May14 Feb24 (ramirez julio)VARGAS P 117 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  OUR CUSTOM DARLING Jun26 Jun03 May13 Aug06 Jul04 (larrosa juan)DOMINGUEZ JOEL 114 10.00 6% 15.60    
4  TARGET VISION Aug11 Apr22 Feb20 Jan29 Sep10 (schwandt em)DEL-CID VICENTE 117 2.50    
5  AGGIE DOCTOR Aug28 Jul27 Jul08 May13 May03 (delany sarah)FUSILIER C 117 5.00 25% 3.10    
6  MYDEALOFTHEDAY Jul27 Jun29 Apr20 Mar11 Jan26 (constan)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 117 15.00    
7  CRYPTO BRAVE Aug28 Aug12 Jul28 Jul08 Jun24 (zenon shelt)MELANCON JANSEN 117 3.50    
8  BARRANCA Jun24 Jun01 Aug17 Jul14 Jun18 (zenon shelton)POMPELL L 117 6.00 42% 1.40    
9  JANISTHEBEAUTY Sep09 Jul27 Jun29 Mar15 Jul27 (terre david)ROSIER R 117 15.00    
 
DED-5   10/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:07
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IT'S A BIRD May12 Jan21 Dec17 Nov30 Nov17 (ali a)EDISON JOCELYN 109 6.00    
SCR  BIG ACE Sep10 Aug12 Aug04 Jun02 May05 (richard)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 114 15.00    
3  SMART ANALYSIS Jun30 Jun10 Jan11 Nov19 Oct19 (latour nichol)VARGAS P 114 15.00    
4  MUSTAFA Aug10 Jun16 Nov12 Oct08 Jul30 (knudsen kent)MCMAHON J 117 15.00 7% 12.70    
5  RUNTODAY Aug17 Jul16 Apr28 Nov05 Oct08 (richard chr)DEL-CID VICENTE 114 2.50 46% 1.20    
SCR  PITALE Jul13 Jul03 Jun11 May28 May12 (broberg karl)THORNTON G 114 4.00    
7  GOLDEN QUALITY Jul28 Jul13 May27 Jan12 Dec27 (mojica edith )LOZADA CARLOS 117 8.00    
8  SHUT UP MAN Sep25 Sep11 Aug19 Aug07 Jul10 (arnett g)ROMAN KEVIN 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  ZULTAN Sep10 Aug04 Jul15 Jun12 May19 (modica oscar)DOMINGUEZ JOEL 117 5.00 21% 3.70    
10  OXXON Sep10 Jun11 May08 Feb25 Feb09 (nelson eric )NIEVES EMANUEL 117 12.00    
11  UNCLE BRAD Sep10 Aug19 Jun24 Jun04 May13 (ward r)GUERRERO ANDRES 117 8.00    
SCR  KURT'S CHOICE Sep03 Aug10 Jul20 Jun28 Jun04 (berndt jo)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 114 4.00    
 
DED-6   10/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($24K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GERARD Sep18 Aug21 Jul03 May29 Apr12 (arnett g)BIRZER E 114 6.00 10% 8.60    
2  MISTER K Sep05 Jul30 Jun05 May14 Apr27 (villafranco mar)ROMAN KEVIN 117 8.00    
3  HAIL STATE Sep12 Jun30 May20 Mar25 Jan27 (broberg karl)THORNTON G 117 3.50    
4  HURTS SO BAD Aug13 Jul26 Jul06 Jun15 May28 (clay pat)ALBERT S 112 10.00    
5  TIZHOTNDUSTY Sep18 Sep03 Jul22 Jul03 Jun12 (gonzalez isa)DOMINGUEZ JOEL 117 12.00    
6  ALLEVA Sep09 Aug11 Jun11 May29 Apr26 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 117 2.50 26% 2.80    
7  IN THE ARCH Aug20 Aug04 Jul22 Jun30 May18 (ramirez eduar)VARGAS P 117 8.00 20% 4.00    
8  MORE LIKE IT Aug12 Jul22 Jun17 Jun09 May27 (cormier houston)POMPELL L 117 20.00    
9  MOTATAABEQ Jul27 May03 Apr08 Feb23 Jan06 (escobar ali)MORALES ROBERTO 117 5.00 14% 6.00    
 
DED-7   10/19/2023 4950ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:03
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LORRAINE'S LEGACY Aug24 Jul13 Jun08 Mar12 Dec16 (clay pat)SANTOS ADEMAR 114 3.50 19% 4.30    
2  MISS LONELYHEARTS Aug04 Jun24 Apr19 Feb28 Feb09 (brinkman brett)POMPELL L 114 10.00    
3  RIOBELLA Sep01 Aug13 Jul29 Jun17 May29 (gonzalez v)ROMAN KEVIN 114 6.00    
4  FORGOTTEN FORTUNE Oct07 Sep04 Aug12 Jul08 May20 (segura kear)MELANCON JANSEN 117 8.00 18% 4.50    
5  CAVE CREEK Oct07 Aug12 Aug03 Jul01 Jun23 (dussette a)ALBERT S 112 12.00    
6  WATERS OF MEROM Aug04 May02 Mar17 Feb03 Jan25 (richard chr)DEL-CID VICENTE 117 2.50    
7  TEASE ME NOT Aug12 Jul21 Nov26     (bourgeois keith)MCMAHON J 114 6.00 16% 5.30    
8  CARPE HORSESHOE Oct07 Aug12 Jul29 Jul08 Jun23 (broberg karl)THORNTON G 117 4.50 27% 2.80    
 
DED-8   10/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($44K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:31
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SERIOUSLY SAM Aug29 Jul06 Jun16 May25 May13 (broberg karl)THORNTON G 117 6.00    
2  BLESSED ASSURANCE Aug04 Jul01 Jun17 Jun02 Apr29 (dison m)POMPELL L 114 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  THAT'S MY MAMA May26 May05 Feb18 Jul27 Jun03 (noel dane)DEL-CID VICENTE 117 5.00 ★    
4  LUMINOUS FLIGHT Jul20 Jul08 Jun02 May20 Apr13 (west henry)STOKES A 114 20.00    
5  MISS PRIORITY Sep05 Aug05 Jul24 Jul08 Jun17 (duhon paul)MELANCON G 117 8.00 9% 9.90    
SCR  SWEET VIDALIA Aug29 Aug07 Jul21 Jun29 Jun17 (bryant georg)NIEVES EMANUEL 117 10.00    
7  CATCAKE Aug29 Aug04 Jun29 Jun10 Apr28 (magnon rylee)MAGNON H 117 3.50    
8  MICHELLES LIL STAR Sep10 Mar15 Feb04 Dec29 Nov18 (calhoun william)MCMAHON J 117 2.50 61% 0.60    
9  CUTE DINERO QUEEN May22 Mar22 Feb18 Jan21 Dec28 (ramirez rosa )VARGAS P 117 10.00    
 
DED-9   10/19/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:59
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLYING I Oct20 Aug12 Jul14 May20 Apr30 (west henry)RIVERA JOSEAN 123 5.00    
2  WHEELS LIKE NALA Sep05 Aug21 Aug06 Jul23 Oct19 (de beauville )LOZADA CARLOS 120 10.00 5% 18.20    
3  DON'T BLINK TWICE Aug28 Jul23 Jun11 May07 Feb22 (lara jorge)MUNOZ SERGIO 115 20.00    
4  JENNYSBIGBABY Sep02 Jul09 Jun18 May28   (lara jorge)DOMINGUEZ JOEL 117 3.50 8% 11.20    
5  SHARE THE DOE Sep10 Aug28 Aug12 Mar18 Feb11 (zenon shel)ALBERT S 115 15.00    
6  MAGIC GRAY Aug03         (ali anc)GREEN AUBRIE 117 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  E R'S MIREYA Sep10 Aug28 Aug06 Jul09 Sep19 (ramirez julio)VARGAS P 120 5.00 11% 8.40    
8  GRACE'S VISION Feb20 Jan14 Dec21 Dec08 Nov17 (daigle walt)CARMONA SERAFIN 115 20.00    
9  RUN AWAY SAMARI Sep02 Aug05 Jul15 May27 May03 (woodley j)THORNTON G 117 2.00 55% 0.80    
10  LIL PARTY CRASHER Sep10 Aug26 Aug12 Jul24 Jul01 (garza joaq)BATISTA X 120 20.00    
SCR  SENSE OF HEART Oct06 Jun01 Apr28 Feb25 Jan20 (noel dane)POMPELL L 120 8.00    
SCR  SERENA'S SERENADE         (knudsen kent)ROSIER R 120 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.