Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Monday - August 14, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-3   WIN (1/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/4)-(1/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (1/4)-(4/2/1)-(7/2/3/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-4   WIN (4/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/1)-(4/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/1)-(4/2/1)-(4/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (4/2/1)-(7/2/3/1)-(7/6/4/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-5   WIN (7/2/3/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/2/3/1)-(7/2/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/2/3/1)-(7/2/3/1)-(7/2/3/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/2/3/1)-(7/6/4/1)-(4/3/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
ARP-6   WIN (7/6/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/4/1)-(7/6/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/4/1)-(7/6/4/1)-(7/6/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/6/4/1)-(4/3/7)-(2/9/1/5/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ARP-7   WIN (4/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/7)-(4/3/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/3/7)-(4/3/7)-(4/3/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-8   WIN (2/9/1/5/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/9/1/5/6)-(2/9/1/5/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/9/1/5/6)-(2/9/1/5/6)-(2/9/1/5/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-3   08/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($12.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPECIAL TWIST Aug06         (hall monk)RAMOS B 124 2.50 49% 1.00    
2  LOTTA PRADA Aug05 Jul16 Jun24 Sep26 Sep04 (kemper kerry)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
3  LUNA ROSE Jul16 Sep19 Sep04 Aug14 Aug02 (garrett j)LULL E 124 12.00    
4  BRING THE POSSE Jul29 Jul16 Jun24 Oct04 Sep11 (triana mart)RAMEY CASH 115 3.50 19% 4.30    
SCR  YA THINK Jul29 Jul22 Jul08 Jun24 Sep25 (triana jua)BARRIENTOS ANGEL 120 20.00    
 
ARP-4   08/14/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($8.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEE EXXTRAVAGANT Jul31 Aug15 Aug02 Jul17 Jul05 (parsons riley)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 4.50 15% 5.60    
2  TOO LATE Jul10 Jun24 Jun11 May22 Apr15 (rushton sta)MORALES ROBERTO 124 8.00 23% 3.40    
3  CLAIMJUMPER Jul23 Jul10 Jun24 Sep20 Sep04 (mcdonald willia)HAAR NATHAN 124 12.00    
4  ROCKYMOUNTAINTWIST Jul29 Jul10 Feb28 Jul19 Jul05 (garrett j)TORRES J 124 2.50 34% 1.90    
5  ORDER OF THE DAY Jun24 Apr22 Apr01 Mar18 Oct02 (rushton temple)RAMEY CASH 119 15.00    
6  EUSEBIO Jul31 Jul17 Jul02 Jun19 Jan08 (esquibel mark)LULL E 120 3.50    
 
ARP-5   08/14/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MCORO Sep02 Aug07 Jun19 May21 Mar22 (rust terri)WALES T 124 8.00 7% 12.40    
2  PAYNTER'S BOY Sep19 Aug08 Aug01 Jul23 May06 (o'brien debbie)LULL E 124 20.00 27% 2.70    
3  DIVINE TASK Jul31 Jul17 Jun24 Sep27 Sep18 (hall monk)RAMOS B 121 12.00 8% 11.90    
4  MUCHO GIFTED Jul31 Jul17 Jun25 Jun11 Sep18 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 121 2.50    
5  POLICY LIMIT Jul31 Jul15 May13 May06 Apr22 (lemburg mark)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 20.00    
6  WEBCAM Jul30 Jul10 Apr15 Apr01 Mar04 (rushton temple)RAMEY CASH 119 3.50    
7  BIG BIZ Jul30 Jul15 Jun24 Jun11 May20 (haar robert)MORALES ROBERTO 124 4.50 34% 1.90    
 
ARP-6   08/14/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AMBER WAVES Jul30 Sep25 Sep12 Aug23 Jul31 (chavez juan)TORRES J 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  HERE AND VOW Jul30 Mar04 Feb19     (mcdonald j)WALES T 124 2.50    
3  T R'S FIRST Jul16 Jul03 Jun19 Apr29 Apr15 (hibdon mark )GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 12.00    
4  HEAR ME ROAR Jul08 Apr30 Oct24 Aug26 Aug14 (rust terri)RAMOS B 124 4.50 12% 7.20    
5  CREDIT CARD FRAUD May21 Apr08 Mar21 Feb05 Jan08 (quezada zach)JOURNET JARRED 124 3.50    
6  UNPLUCKED GEM Aug06 Jul15 Jul03 Jun18 Apr08 (rushton sta)MORALES ROBERTO 124 8.00 23% 3.30    
7  STOLEN HALO Jul22 Sep10 Aug13 Jul30 Jul11 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.00 41% 1.40    
8  CRIMSON T. Jul22 Jul01 Jun17 May14 Apr30 (young a)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 6.00    
 
ARP-7   08/14/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($12.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORE ACTION Jul31 Jul03 Jun18 May20 Apr08 (lavanway dayso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 20.00    
2  GUEST CHECK Jul29 Jun24 Apr25 Apr05 Mar13 (perkinson cc)RAMEY CASH 119 15.00    
3  MY MAN BIGGIE Jul29 Jul08 Jun17 May06 Mar25 (ortega joe)LULL E 120 10.00 25% 3.00    
4  QUICKTRIP VAN Jul29 Jul10 Sep04 Aug14 Jul31 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 121 2.50 52% 0.90    
SCR  I'M A COOL CAT Jul22 Jul08 Jun24 May06 Apr15 (long vaughn)WALES T 121 3.50    
6  TREASURE COAST Jul30 Jul15 Jul03 Jun10 May28 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 120 4.50    
7  THREE FOR THREE Jul29 Jul02 Jun18 Jun02 Oct02 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
ARP-8   08/14/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POPS GIRL ALEXA Jul16 Jul01 Jun17 May14 May05 (hibdon n)RAMOS B 124 10.00 9% 10.00    
2  EXODUS AND HOPE Jul29 Jul23 Jul15 Jun25 Jun17 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 3.50 45% 1.20    
3  VALDINI Jun25 Apr01 Mar15 Feb27 Jan21 (villamar ca)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50    
4  PASSION RIDE Aug05 Jul22 Jul01 Mar28 Jan31 (young a)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 15.00    
5  MOBILEAGILEHOSTILE Aug05 Jul23 Jul08 Jun25 Jun17 (lavanway dayso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00 6% 16.80    
6  GOSPEL FAITH Aug05 Jul22 Mar06 Dec02 Nov07 (williams f)RAMEY CASH 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  SMART ACT Jul01 Jun17 May20 May06 Apr22 (young don)MEDINA ANGEL 124 20.00    
8  CAROLYN'S WAY Jul30 Jul16 Jun25 Jun17 May20 (lavanway dayson)TORRES J 124 15.00    
9  WHAT A WAY TO GO Jun18 May05 Apr18 Mar27 Mar07 (whitehouse wilton )LULL E 124 4.50 17% 5.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.