Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Saturday - July 29, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-2   WIN (6/2/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/5)-(6/2/5)-(6/2/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (6/2/5)-(6/1/2)-(1/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ARP-3   WIN (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/1/2)-(6/1/2)-(6/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (6/1/2)-(1/2)-(4/2/5/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-4   WIN (1/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/2)-(1/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (1/2)-(4/2/5/7)-(1/3/8/4) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
ARP-5   WIN (4/2/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/2/5/7)-(4/2/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/2/5/7)-(4/2/5/7)-(4/2/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/5/7)-(1/3/8/4)-(4/1/7/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ARP-6   WIN (1/3/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/8/4)-(1/3/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/8/4)-(1/3/8/4)-(1/3/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/8/4)-(4/1/7/6)-(7/8/6/2) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
ARP-7   WIN (4/1/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/7/6)-(4/1/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/7/6)-(4/1/7/6)-(4/1/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
ARP-8   WIN (7/8/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/6/2)-(7/8/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/6/2)-(7/8/6/2)-(7/8/6/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-2   07/29/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($9.7K) 2 F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I'M GONE Jul08         (triana ma)MCNEIL BRYAN 117 3.50    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of LADY POSSE by POSSE)
2  SNUGGLE BUNNY         (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 117 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of SHEETS by SCATMANDU)
3  FLY FREE Jul08         (triana juan )MARTIN A 117 8.00    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of R S JOY by KITTEN'S JOY)
4  LONG MAY SHE RUN         (parsons ril)MORALES ROBERTO 117 4.50    
  (by KLIMT out of RATE OF EXCHANGE by EXCHANGE RATE)
5  ZORINA         (moreno ca)MEDINA ANGEL 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ENTICED out of MAGDALENA'S MOMENT by HARBOR THE GOLD)
6  MAYA D Jul08         (martinez a)WALES T 120 2.50 68% 0.50    
  (by CONNECT out of SHAKEN MEMORIES by LEMON DROP KID)
 
ARP-3   07/29/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($9.7K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EZ FITZ         (parsons ril)MORALES ROBERTO 117 4.50 9% 9.60    
  (by EZ EFFORT out of SNICKEL FITZ by SEATTLE FITZ (ARG))
2  I'M A TRUMPER         (triana juan)MORALES ALLYSSA 115 10.00 9% 9.60    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of SWEETPRINCESSCHARM by SWEETSOUTHERNSAINT)
3  CHASING THE KING Jul16         (triana juan )MARTIN A 117 15.00    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of CHASING THE QUEEN by POSSE)
4  PALACE PATCH         (vicchrilli russell)LULL E 117 8.00    
  (by PALACE out of HOLY TRICK by HOLY BULL)
5  SHUDDER Jul16 Apr15       (barraza rafael )HAAR NATHAN 120 2.50    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of RYLEIGH RULER by ROMAN RULER)
6  TAP TAP HUSTO         (martinez a)WALES T 120 2.50 48% 1.10    
  (by TAPITURE out of ZENA by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
 
ARP-4   07/29/2023 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($5.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OPTIMAL Jul02 Jun25 Apr22 Apr01 Mar18 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 2.50 46% 1.20    
2  THORNISH Jul02 Jun09 Jun03 May20 Apr01 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 10.00 27% 2.70    
SCR  EXCITING Jul19 Jun28 Jun15 May16 Apr24 (kemper kerry)LULL E 124 4.50    
4  LIL LATIGO Jul10 Jul02 Jun19 Apr01 Mar27 (lavanway dayso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 20.00    
5  SILVER AND ACES Jul03 Sep27 Sep19 Jul30 Jul02 (williams )MEDINA ANGEL 124 15.00    
SCR  CATS GOTTA CHANCE Jul17 Jul03 Jun17 Apr29 Apr09 (long vaughn)WALES T 124 3.50    
 
ARP-5   07/29/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($4.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BATTLEOF TRAFALGAR Jul02 Jun19 Jun04 Mar18 Nov30 (christian billy)LULL E 120 8.00    
2  BARTSTER Jul15 Jun19 Oct01 Sep11 Aug28 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 117 3.50 28% 2.60    
3  BARREL MAN Jul15 Jul02       (triana juan )MARTIN A 117 10.00    
4  SWAY BACK WHEN Jul10 Sep27 Sep13 Aug30 Jul18 (martinez a)WALES T 124 2.50 34% 2.00    
5  CORTE Jul02 Jun18 May27 Apr29 Mar31 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 12.00 9% 10.10    
6  ENDALE ARCH Jun19 May21 May06 Apr05 Mar20 (lavanway dayson)TORRES J 120 4.50    
7  BIG PEN TEN Jul15 Jun19 Apr12 Jan28   (young a)RAMEY CASH 119 20.00 7% 13.10    
 
ARP-6   07/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($12.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  QUICKTRIP VAN Jul10 Sep04 Aug14 Jul31 Jul18 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 121 4.00 37% 1.70    
2  KNIGHTED Jul10 Jun19 May20 May13 Apr15 (muckey john)MARTIN A 124 12.00    
3  MY MAN BIGGIE Jul08 Jun17 May06 Mar25 Mar11 (ortega joe)LULL E 120 3.50 19% 4.20    
4  GUEST CHECK Jun24 Apr25 Apr05 Mar13 Feb19 (perkinson cc)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 7% 12.50    
5  THREE FOR THREE Jul02 Jun18 Jun02 Oct02 Sep18 (parsons ril)MORALES ROBERTO 121 15.00    
6  PARTYOFSIXTEEN Jul10 Jun17 May01 Apr04 Mar19 (barraza s)MEDINA ANGEL 124 2.50    
7  ROCKYMOUNTAINTWIST Jul10 Feb28 Jul19 Jul05 Jun12 (garrett j)TORRES J 121 6.00    
8  PRECEDENT Jul02 Jun17 Apr29 Apr15 Mar19 (martinez a)WALES T 124 2.00 15% 5.70    
 
ARP-7   07/29/2023 4620ft DIRT RC11 FAST CTBA Oaks Purse ($30K) 3 F PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRING THE POSSE Jul16 Jun24 Oct04 Sep11 Aug21 (triana juan )MARTIN A 122 2.50 20% 4.10    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of LADY POSSE by POSSE)
2  IMA HOT TOTTIE Jul17 Sep25 Sep11 Aug21   (vicchrilli rus)LUARK T 122 12.00    
  (by LAUGHING CHARLIE out of LIL MISS HOTTENTOT by PERFECT MANDATE)
3  FLYING LADY Jul16 Jun25 Sep11 Aug21   (martinez a)WALES T 122 4.50    
  (by BIRDSTONE out of SANDHILL LADY by OLIVER'S TWIST)
4  MISTY GIRL Jul16         (hall monk)RAMOS B 122 3.50 43% 1.30    
  (by VICE LORD out of LAKE CIDE GIRL by KENNEDY FACTOR)
SCR  LAST AMIGA Jul16         (triana mart)RAMEY CASH 122 20.00    
  (by LIAISON out of REAL AMIGA by EL PRADO (IRE))
6  JUST A SEC Jul16         (hall monk)MCNEIL BRYAN 122 8.00 7% 12.90    
  (by VICE LORD out of JUST NOW by NO STORMS)
7  YA THINK Jul22 Jul08 Jun24 Sep25 Sep11 (triana ju)MEDINA ANGEL 122 15.00 9% 10.70    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of MRS. GEHRIG by MR. GEHRIG)
8  MS BUMBLEBEE Jul16 Jul01 Jun17 Sep25 Sep11 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 122 6.00    
  (by ARMY MULE out of FINE LOOKIN LADY by E DUBAI)
 
ARP-8   07/29/2023 5280ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHEF Apr25 Apr10 Mar11 Feb22 Feb14 (tate mary)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 20.00    
2  TIGER BY HIS TAIL Jul09 Apr02 Mar26 Mar11 Feb25 (barrio sergio)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00 6% 15.20    
SCR  GRAN EDITION Jul09 Jul02 Oct02 Sep25 Aug01 (chavez juan)TORRES J 124 6.00    
4  ITS FIVE SOMEWHERE Jul16 Jun18 Apr15 Mar25 Feb22 (esquibel mark)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 10.00    
5  NORTHERN QUEST (FR) Jul16 Jun25 Jun18 May29 May21 (wheeler travis)LULL E 124 4.50    
6  TASHKENT Jul03 Feb10 Jan08 Dec15 Dec01 (williams )MEDINA ANGEL 124 15.00 19% 4.30    
7  SUEZ Jul03 Jun19 May13 May06 Apr22 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50 34% 1.90    
8  JIMBO'S BIZ Jul16 Jul02 Jun18 May06 Apr22 (rushton stacy)WALES T 124 3.50 20% 4.10    
9  PERVASIVE Jun18 May20 May06 Apr22 Apr08 (muckey john)MARTIN A 124 15.00    
SCR  GREY ROGUE Jul17 Jun25 Apr29 Mar25 Feb18 ( )TBA null      
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.