Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Sunday - July 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-1   WIN (2/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/4)-(2/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/4)-(2/3/4)-(2/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-2   WIN (6/4/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/5/7)-(6/4/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/5/7)-(6/4/5/7)-(6/4/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/4/5/7)-(1/6)-(1/2/7/6) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
ARP-3   WIN (1/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/6)-(1/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (1/6)-(1/2/7/6)-(8/6/7) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-4   WIN (1/2/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/7/6)-(1/2/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/7/6)-(1/2/7/6)-(1/2/7/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/7/6)-(8/6/7)-(5/2/4/3/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ARP-5   WIN (8/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/6/7)-(8/6/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/6/7)-(8/6/7)-(8/6/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (8/6/7)-(5/2/4/3/7)-(7/3/8/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
ARP-6   WIN (5/2/4/3/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/2/4/3/7)-(5/2/4/3/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/2/4/3/7)-(5/2/4/3/7)-(5/2/4/3/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ARP-7   WIN (7/3/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/8/4)-(7/3/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/8/4)-(7/3/8/4)-(7/3/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   07/16/2023 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($9.7K) 2 ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TOOMANYNAMES         (rushton stacy)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 4.50    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of GREATEST SHOW by STORM CAT)
2  FERRARI RED         (martinez a)WALES T 120 2.50 50% 1.00    
  (by CINCO CHARLIE out of COOPER'S KEEPER by TEMPLE CITY)
3  CHASING THE KING         (triana juan )MARTIN A 117 15.00 19% 4.20    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of CHASING THE QUEEN by POSSE)
4  BIG MOONIE May06 Apr15       (villamar ca)MORALES ROBERTO 120 10.00 7% 12.70    
  (by CAT BURGLAR out of MOONIE by SQUARE EDDIE)
5  SHUDDER Apr15         (barraza rafael )HAAR NATHAN 120 3.50    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of RYLEIGH RULER by ROMAN RULER)
6  WHAT THE HEY Jul04         (triana ju)MEDINA ANGEL 120 8.00    
  (by FLAT OUT out of HEY BABY by SAVE BIG MONEY)
 
ARP-2   07/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($10.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHADOWINTHECLOUDS Jul01         (kemper ke)MEDINA ANGEL 124 20.00    
  (by OUTLASH out of MY DADDY'S AWESOME by AWESOME AGAIN)
2  LAST AMIGA         (triana juan )MARTIN A 120 8.00    
  (by LIAISON out of REAL AMIGA by EL PRADO (IRE))
3  FLYING LADY Jun25 Sep11 Aug21     (martinez a)LULL E 120 4.50    
  (by BIRDSTONE out of SANDHILL LADY by OLIVER'S TWIST)
4  TUDIE LU Jul01 Sep25 Sep11     (martinez a)WALES T 120 3.50 23% 3.40    
  (by OUTLASH out of PROVINCIAL NATIVE by BENCHMARK)
5  MISTY GIRL         (hall monk)RAMOS B 120 12.00 6% 16.10    
  (by VICE LORD out of LAKE CIDE GIRL by KENNEDY FACTOR)
6  MS BUMBLEBEE Jul01 Jun17 Sep25 Sep11 Aug21 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 120 2.50 38% 1.70    
  (by ARMY MULE out of FINE LOOKIN LADY by E DUBAI)
7  JUST A SEC         (hall monk)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 10.00 6% 16.10    
  (by VICE LORD out of JUST NOW by NO STORMS)
 
ARP-3   07/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($6.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISCHIEVIOUSLANIE Jun19 Sep04 Aug21 Jul10   (gleason m)MCNEIL BRYAN 117 2.50 45% 1.20    
2  GEORGIANO Jun25 May15 Nov26 Oct31 Oct17 (williams )MEDINA ANGEL 124 3.50    
SCR  HOT LIL MESS Jul03 Apr09 Mar05 Feb19 Feb05 (megariz mic)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 8.00    
4  T R'S FIRST Jul03 Jun19 Apr29 Apr15 Apr08 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 4.50    
SCR  HOT CAVIAR Jun25 May13 Apr23 Apr15 Mar26 (lemburg mark)HAAR NATHAN 124 15.00    
6  PROMPTLY DONE Jun25 Apr29 Sep11 Aug22 Aug07 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 10.00 19% 4.20    
 
ARP-4   07/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($12.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KNIGHT EYES Jun24 Mar07 Feb14 Jan23   (barraza s)WALES T 124 5.00 31% 2.20    
2  SIGRID Jun17 May07       (rust terri)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 3.50 5% 17.30    
3  CAROLYN'S WAY Jun25 Jun17 May20 Jan30 Nov15 (lavanway day)MARTIN A 124 8.00    
SCR  GYPSY ROSIE Jun18 Apr08 Feb26 Jan03 Nov20 (martinez a)HAAR NATHAN 120 2.50 38% 1.70    
5  BRING THE POSSE Jun24 Oct04 Sep11 Aug21 Aug07 (triana marti)RAMOS B 117 6.00    
6  CREES VALENTYME Jun24 May02 Apr12 Mar27 Mar07 (parsons ril)MORALES ROBERTO 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  LOTTA PRADA Jun24 Sep26 Sep04     (kemper kerry)LULL E 121 4.50 5% 18.90    
8  CHASING DIVINITY Jul01 Sep26 Sep04 Aug01 Jul17 (parsons riley)TORRES J 121 20.00    
9  SMOKIN AMELIA Jun18 Dec09 Oct28 Sep25 Aug26 (story chad)MORALES ALLYSSA 120 6.00    
 
ARP-5   07/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance Purse ($6.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NORTHERN QUEST (FR) Jun25 Jun18 May29 May21 May06 (wheeler travis)LULL E 124 2.50    
SCR  BANJO BILL Jun25 Jun17 Jun03 Apr29 Apr15 (ibanez alber)JOURNET JARRED 124 10.00    
3  THREE BALL Jun17 May20 Apr29 Apr08 Mar25 (roberts m)HAAR NATHAN 124 20.00    
4  ITS FIVE SOMEWHERE Jun18 Apr15 Mar25 Feb22 Feb13 (esquibel )MEDINA ANGEL 124 8.00    
SCR  PERVASIVE Jun18 May20 May06 Apr22 Apr08 (muckey john)RAMOS B 124 12.00    
6  JIMBO'S BIZ Jul02 Jun18 May06 Apr22 Sep25 (rushton stacy)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 4.50 26% 2.80    
7  MOST AMUSING Jul01 Jun18 Jun04 May27 May20 (hibdon n)WALES T 124 3.50 11% 8.40    
8  HOT ARTIE Jul01 Jun18 Jun03 May21 Apr29 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 6.00 34% 2.00    
 
ARP-6   07/16/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($8.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEQUILA RITA Sep26 Sep13 Aug15 Jul12 Apr11 (loftin linda)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 15.00    
2  DAHLIA'S DANCER Jun24 Feb15 Jan17 Dec26 Dec10 (barraza raf)MORALES ALLYSSA 120 2.50 5% 17.70    
3  AMY D Jun24 Mar06 Feb15 Nov14 Oct04 (martinez a)WALES T 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
4  SHASTAWIN Oct04 Sep11 Aug21     (barraza raf)MORALES ROBERTO 117 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  HIGH GUNNER Jun18 Mar27 Mar11 Feb14 Jan23 (gleason m)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 72% 0.40    
6  LUNA ROSE Sep19 Sep04 Aug14 Aug02 Jul17 (parsons riley)LULL E 121 6.00    
7  POPS GIRL ALEXA Jul01 Jun17 May14 May05 Apr23 (hibdon n)RAMOS B 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  EXPECT THE BOSS Jun24 May19 Dec28 Nov22 Nov10 (haar robe)MEDINA ANGEL 124 3.50    
9  ANGIE'S REVRAC Jul01 Jun17 May19 May05 Mar24 (muckey john)MARTIN A 124 20.00    
 
ARP-7   07/16/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.2K) Purse ($5.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABRIERWIN Jun24 May13 Apr03 Mar12 Feb21 (lavanway dayson)TORRES J 124 4.50    
2  SHADYFIED Jul02 Apr24 Apr03 Mar12 Sep12 (barrio sergio)WALES T 124 10.00    
3  FRISCO KID Jun25 Jun17 May06 Apr18 Mar15 (villamar ca)MORALES ROBERTO 124 2.50 18% 4.40    
4  CHICKEN N BISCUIT Apr17 Apr04 Oct02 Sep13 Sep05 (esquibel ma)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  BULL RING Jul03 Jun19 Apr23 Apr02 Mar18 (rushton temple)RAMOS B 124 6.00    
6  CAPTAIN COMEBACK Jul02 May02 Dec14 Sep05 Jun20 (williams )MEDINA ANGEL 124 12.00    
7  CASH EXPRESS Jul03 Apr16 Apr08 Mar26 Aug26 (chavez juan)MARTIN A 124 3.50 54% 0.80    
8  FRIENDLY FOE Jul02 Jun18 Sep27 Sep13 Aug29 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 121 10.00 6% 16.00    
SCR  BACKSTAGE BUD Oct26 Oct15 Oct01 Sep17 Jul11 (williams f)RAMEY CASH 119 15.00    
SCR  TENACIOUS LION Jul08 Jun11 May27 May06 Mar10 ( )TBA null      
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.