Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Friday - September 23, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/23/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HIGHER AUTHORITY Aug30 Aug03 Jul11 Jun30 Jun08 (vance d)LANERIE J 121 3.50 10% 8.90    
2  DREWZANO Aug24 Aug04 Jun08 Apr30 Mar27 (wiggins lon)GRAHAM J 121 10.00    
3  ZELIG Aug09 Jul15 Mar04 Jan28 Jan02 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 2.50 16% 5.10    
4  HONORARY DEGREE Sep15 Aug12 Jul22 Jun26 May27 (miller f)COURT K 121 5.00 ★    
5  ROCK ON KITTEN Aug24 Jul22 Jun24 Jun10 May27 (reed eric )CORRALES GERARDO 121 8.00 ★    
6  DRENA'S STAR Jun10 May12 Apr23 Apr02 Feb26 (cano munoz)RIQUELME J 121 1.60 49% 1.00    
 
CD-2   09/23/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BOURBINA May30 Apr30       (cook b)BEJARANO R 121 3.00 28% 2.50    
2  SOCIAL MANDATE Aug19 Jul30 May28 May15 Apr10 (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00 ★    
3  LADY DEMAREE Sep09 Jul30 Jul06 Jun22   (paquett)DE CRUZ 118 10.00    
4  CODE NAME KATE Aug29 Feb03       (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.60 45% 1.20    
5  DIVINE HOPE Aug20 Jul23 Jul03 Jun18 May26 (taylor brent)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 ★    
6  SPARKLE OF HOPE Jul03 Jun08 May30 May15 Feb24 (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.00 ★    
 
CD-3   09/23/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  UBIQUITOUS Sep05 Aug22 Aug08     (lightner mar)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 20% 3.90    
SCR  ONCOMING TRAIN Jul03 Jun05 Apr23 Feb11 Jan17 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 5.00 ★    
3  BIG NICK Aug25 Jun16 May17 May03 Apr19 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00    
4  HOT PASTRAMI Jul07 Apr08 Mar19     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00    
5  DESOTO'S WAR Sep07 Aug11 Jul21 Jul04 Mar25 (forster grant)GILLIGAN JACK 121 6.00 16% 5.40    
6  GORMLEYS GOT GAME Sep01 Aug18 Jul21 Jul12 Jun21 (swingle)DE CRUZ 118 8.00    
SCR  JAKE ROCKS Aug24 Jun30 Jun04 May12 Apr15 (pearce penn)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.00 20% 3.90    
8  SAG HARBOR Aug04 Jun04 Apr28 Mar20 Jan16 (matthews randy)ACHARD ALEX 121 15.00 11% 7.90    
 
CD-4   09/23/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 2 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHIPMUNK Sep02 Aug07 Jul15     (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 4.00 30% 2.40    
2  CREDIT COMMITTEE         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 10% 9.20    
3  HOLIDAY NECKLACE Aug26 Aug10 Jun22     (wilkes ian)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 8.00    
4  LADY ENVOY Jul16         (lukas wayne)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00    
5  LEAD SINGER         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 12.00    
6  ONTOTHENEXT         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
7  CONTROLLED FIRE Sep02         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00 11% 7.80    
8  JULIA'S CHARDONNAY Sep14 Jun19 Apr10     (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 3.00 25% 2.90    
9  SWEET SLEW         (deville carl )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
10  LILY'S CREED Aug30         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  RAG TOWN         (sherman alan)GARCIA MARTIN 119 30.00    
 
CD-5   09/23/2022 6600ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LAYTOWN Aug05         (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 5.00 7% 12.60    
2  ORDER OF MERIT Aug13         (pletcher t)CORRALES GERARDO 120 8.00    
3  TEN GAUGE Aug21 Jan29 Jan02     (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 3.00 38% 1.60    
4  MIDNIGHT RAID Jul24 Jun22 Mar04     (casse no)SANTANA JR 120 8.00 ★    
5  BRIGHT SPARK Aug05 Jul03 Jun24 Jun11 May15 (flint bernar)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00    
6  BOLD LOOKER Aug28 Jul29 Jul03     (lynch bria)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 28% 2.50    
7  GATE RUNNER Jul29 May30 May03 Apr03   (pletcher tod)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.00 ★    
8  AWAY FROM HOME Aug13 Mar26       (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 120 15.00    
 
CD-6   09/23/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARAMELITO Aug25 Jul21 Jun11 May27 May14 (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 116 12.00 ★    
2  TRAPPE VALLEY Aug27 Jul22 Jul01 Jun10 Apr24 (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 12.00 9% 10.60    
3  MASAI MAN Aug23 Aug09 Jul05 Jun13 May18 (cash l)COURT K 121 15.00    
4  AGGRESSIVITY Aug26 Jul08 Jun11 May28 May07 (cook b)LANERIE J 121 3.00    
5  MO'S MOJO Jul01 May05 Feb25 Jan02   (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 5.00 35% 1.80    
6  SHADOW MATTER Sep03 Jul20 Jun26 May28 Apr29 (diodoro ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 13% 6.80    
7  SPANKHURST Sep06 Aug15 Jul27 Jul13 Jun22 (vance tho)LEPAROUX R 121 6.00    
8  SOUNION Aug26 Jul15 Jun05 Mar18 Feb03 (cano munoz)BEJARANO R 121 3.50 13% 6.70    
 
CD-7   09/23/2022 4620ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ADALINDA Aug26 Aug05 Jul09     (short thomas)WISEMAN ISAIAH 119 20.00 ★    
2  INDY AGAIN         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
3  EXCELLENT QUESTION Aug07         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 23% 3.30    
4  SONG OF STORMS Aug28 Jul14 Jul01     (faircloth ave)GILLIGAN JACK 119 30.00    
5  CREATIVE DI Aug07         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 10.00 20% 4.00    
6  GHOSTLY GIRL         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 15.00    
SCR  METHODOLOGY         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.00 33% 2.10    
8  MARKET PROFILE         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
9  FLOWERDEW Sep01 Jul31       (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
10  TABOR TIME         (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
11  WILLOW BEND Aug13         (colebrook ben)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
12  LA PERLA NERA         (kenneally eddie)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
 
CD-8   09/23/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PORTILLA Aug07 Jun26       (stall al)SANTANA JR 121 3.50    
2  RING ME DARLING Aug14 Jul03 Jun18 May22   (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00    
SCR  COMEDY ACT Jul30 Jun17 May19 Mar20 Jan23 (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
4  BACKYARD MONEY Sep05 Aug11 Jul27     (lukas wayne)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.00 10% 8.60    
5  WINGS OF AN ANGEL Jul31 Jul15 Jun17 May21 May05 (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 12.00 8% 12.10    
6  MORE THAN VOWS Jul30 Jun11       (lyn)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 120 8.00 ★    
7  FINE FAMILY Aug27         (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
8  CANCEL THIS Aug27 Jul31 Jun18 May28 Apr02 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  ROMANCE NOVEL Aug13 Jul02 Jun18     (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00    
10  KANT BELIEVE IT         (divito jam)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 50% 1.00    
 
CD-9   09/23/2022 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($150K) Purse ($148K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JALEN JOURNEY Aug26 Aug16 Jul27 Jul02 Jun04 (cash l)BEJARANO R 125 3.00 51% 1.00    
SCR  EASTERN BAY Aug26 Aug13 Jul10 Jun19 May28 (cash l)COURT K 123 3.00 ★    
2  KNEEDEEPINSNOW Aug27 Jul30 Jul02 Jun11 Apr29 (shirer m)SANTANA JR 125 4.00 ★    
3  SOUTH BEND Aug06 Jul09 Jun05 May07 Apr09 (mott i)GRAHAM J 121 8.00 7% 14.20    
4  HE'SMYHONEYBADGER         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00 ★    
5  LONG RANGE TODDY Sep01 Jul30 Jul02 Jun04 May07 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00    
6  BANGO Jul24 Jul02 Jun04 May04   (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 4.00    
7  MUCHO Aug16 Feb21 Jan15     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.50 18% 4.50    
 
CD-10   09/23/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FREEZING POINT         (lejzerowic)CORRALES GERARDO 119 12.00 ★    
2  GIROOVIN         (hamm timothy)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
3  MOGUL CRACK         (gutierre)SANTANA JR 119 15.00    
4  MONCRIEF         (moquett ronal)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 12.00 ★    
5  BORN FLAWLESS         (heitzman eric)COHEN DAVID 119 15.00    
6  HIGHWAY ROBBER         (lynch bri)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 12.00    
7  TOM'S SPIRIT         (cowans william)MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
8  GOLDEN REIGN Jul30         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 4.00 ★    
9  RATE CONFIRMATION         (foley greg)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
10  CHILDERS Aug18         (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.00 69% 0.50    
11  TRUE PRODIGY Sep08         (maker michael)GARCIA MARTIN 119 3.50 10% 9.30    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.