Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Aqueduct
Friday - January 17, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
AQU-1   WIN (3/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/2)-(3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/2)-(6/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/5/2)-(6/1/5)-(4/5/2/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-2   WIN (6/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/1/5)-(6/2/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/1/5)-(6/2/1/5)-(6/2/1/5) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/1/5)-(4/5/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/1/5)-(4/5/2/7)-(1/3/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
AQU-3   WIN (4/5/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/2/7)-(4/5/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/2/7)-(4/5/2/7)-(4/5/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/2/7)-(1/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/5/2/7)-(1/3/4)-(6/4/7/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-4   WIN (1/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/3/4)-(1/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/3/4)-(1/3/4)-(1/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/3/4)-(6/4/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/3/4)-(6/4/7/3)-(6/1/9/3) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
AQU-5   WIN (6/4/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/4/7/3)-(6/1/9/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (6/4/7/3)-(6/1/9/3)-(3/1/9/5/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
AQU-6   WIN (6/1/9/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/9/3)-(6/1/9/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/9/3)-(6/1/9/3)-(6/1/9/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/9/3)-(3/1/9/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/1/9/3)-(3/1/9/5/2)-(2/5/9/1) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
AQU-7   WIN (3/1/9/5/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/1/9/5/2)-(3/1/9/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/1/9/5/2)-(3/1/9/5/2)-(3/1/9/5/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/1/9/5/2)-(2/5/9/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/1/9/5/2)-(2/5/9/1)-(9/6/12/10/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
AQU-8   WIN (2/5/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/9/1)-(2/5/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/9/1)-(2/5/9/1)-(2/5/9/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/9/1)-(9/6/12/10/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
AQU-9   WIN (9/6/12/10/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/6/12/10/2)-(9/6/12/10/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/6/12/10/2)-(9/6/12/10/2)-(9/6/12/10/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
AQU-1   01/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($32K) 3 F PT-12:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I AM EV         (sacco d)CANCEL ERIC 120 5.00    
2  YAYI NIKOLLE Dec29 Nov29       (kantarmaci ilk)CIVACI SAHIN 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  KITTY OF WAR Jan04 Nov18 Nov06 Oct22 Oct03 (d'alessandro r)LEZCANO JOSE 120 2.50 56% 0.80    
4  CLARE COURT Nov15         (meyers madison )VIVES SOFIA 120 4.50    
5  PERFECT FINISH         (donk dav)GOMEZ ANTONIO 120 3.00 11% 8.50    
6  IMPROBABLE FRIEND         (falcone)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 115 3.00    
 
AQU-2   01/17/2025 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 4UP ALL PT-12:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIRST TRUMPET Jan05 Dec14 Nov29 Oct03 Sep19 (delauro )GOMEZ ANTONIO 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  J J'S JOKER Dec13 Dec06 Nov24 Oct31 Oct13 (potts wa)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 118 4.50 ★    
3  MASTER FREUD Dec15 Nov03 Oct04 Sep13 Jul06 (klesaris rober)LEZCANO JOSE 123 3.50    
4  ISOMARSHALL Jan04 Dec12 Nov22 Nov15 Oct24 (keithan rachael)DAVIS KATIE 123 30.00    
5  SIN NOMBRE Dec06 Nov24 Nov09 Oct12 Sep14 (romero jesus)LUZZI J 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  G T FIVE HUNDRED Dec27 Nov22 Nov02 Sep26 Sep15 (maker michael)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.40 61% 0.60    
7  HEARD ON THESTREET Jan04 Nov24 Nov15 Oct31 Oct13 (abreu fern)RIVERA R 123 2.50    
 
AQU-3   01/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($42K) 3 ALL PT- 1:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING PHOENIX Nov23         (quick j)VIVES SOFIA 120 3.50    
2  ONE VISION Dec28 Nov29 Sep29 Sep02 Aug16 (barrera oscar)OLVER MADISON 120 3.50 13% 6.60    
3  STRAND ROAD Dec17 Nov02 Jul24     (catalano)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 115 4.00    
4  CELTIC PRINCE         (brion keri)FRANCO MANUEL 120 3.00 41% 1.50    
5  NINE N FOUR         (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 6.00 22% 3.60    
6  DEAD AIM Dec08         (friedman mi)MARTINEZ R 120 5.00    
7  MAN FROM MALTA Dec07 Jul07 Jun20 May10   (chichakly amir)COA J 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-4   01/17/2025 5940ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($76K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIBERTY CENTRAL Dec08 Nov23 Oct25 Sep29 Aug25 (quick patrick )LEZCANO JOSE 121 0.80 35% 1.90    
SCR  CUMBERLAND BLUES Jan03 Dec13 Nov23 Nov16 Nov02 (quick patrick )LEZCANO JOSE 121 0.80    
2  INCANTATION Jan03 Nov11 Oct21 Oct02 Aug16 (bond j)FRANCO MANUEL 121 5.00    
2B  PETROLO Nov23 Oct09 Aug13 Jul09 Jun11 (bond kevin)COA J 123 5.00    
3  BRICK AMBUSH Dec01 Oct04 Jun06 Apr21 Mar10 (mott i)CIVACI SAHIN 121 3.50 31% 2.20    
4  AZ U CHASE ME Jan03 Nov29 Nov11 Oct21 Sep29 (englehart chris)VIVES SOFIA 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  HAGRID'S FLAME Nov23 Oct31 Jul31 Jun15 Apr13 (ness jamie)SILVERA RUBEN 121 5.00    
6  A LISTER Jan01 Dec15 Nov23 Nov03 Oct18 (pringle)ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 116 20.00    
 
AQU-5   01/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3 ALL PT- 2:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JERRY'S OUT Dec14 Oct17 Aug17 Jul06   (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 120 4.50    
SCR  SOBIESKI Jan03 Dec07 Nov18 Oct23 Oct08 (dixon )MARAGH RAMSAY 120 20.00    
3  TAPWRITS TEMPER Jan03 Nov14 Oct24 Aug31 Aug21 (potts wa)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 115 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  AKINMUSIRE Dec27 Nov29 Nov01 Jun19 May02 (dutrow richar)FRANCO MANUEL 122 3.50 28% 2.60    
5  GIMME GIMME Dec15 Nov02 Oct05 Sep14   (duggan p)CARMOUCHE K 120 6.00    
6  JUST LICORICE Jan05 Nov15 Nov03 Sep22   (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 1.60 40% 1.50    
7  BRAVE BEAR Jan03 Dec06 Nov07 Oct24   (friedman mitche)CANCEL ERIC 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
8  ARCADIAN Jan10 Dec06 Oct24     (potts wayne)CIVACI SAHIN 120 8.00    
 
AQU-6   01/17/2025 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($76K) 3 F PT- 2:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CARMEN'S CANDY JAR Dec07 Oct27 Sep22 Aug25 Jul11 (pletcher a)CARMOUCHE K 120 3.50 18% 4.40    
2  HOWLING WIND Dec14 Nov22       (ferraro james )LUZZI J 122 20.00    
3  VALTELLINA Nov17 Oct27 Sep22 Aug30   (handal)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STRACA Dec01 Oct17 Sep20     (duggan dav)RIVERA R 122 12.00    
5  TIMIA Nov24 Oct17 Sep13 Aug14   (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 122 20.00    
6  NINA KAY Nov17 Sep28       (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 122 1.80 47% 1.10    
7  PRINCESS MISCHIEF Dec14 Nov22 Oct25 Sep23 Aug22 (englehart chr)FRANCO MANUEL 122 5.00    
8  MISCHIEF LADY Dec14 Oct25 Sep23 Aug14   (barker edward )CIVACI SAHIN 122 4.00    
9  IDYLL GOSSIP Nov11 Oct21 Sep23 Aug26 Jul30 (barrow paul)VIVES SOFIA 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-7   01/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($35K) 3 F PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  ADA MAY Nov23 Nov02 Oct03 Sep01 Jul31 (miceli )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 117 3.00 13% 6.70    
SCR  MANDY'S MISS Dec19 Nov27 Oct03     (deiter l)COA J 122 3.00    
2  WHO'S GOT THE TIP Nov11 Sep23 Sep09     (d'alessa)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 117 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  NOTMYSTEPPINGSTONE Jan04 Nov23 Nov09     (levine bruce)LUZZI J 122 4.50 50% 1.00    
4  INFASTUATION Dec06 Nov23 Nov09 Sep13 Aug25 (ryerso)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 15.00    
5  NO FACTOR Nov18 Nov06 Oct22     (de hor)RIVERA R 122 3.50 8% 12.00    
6  CAROL SAID NO Dec12 Sep28 Aug03 Jun21   (morley thomas)FRANCO MANUEL 122 6.00    
7  MY VANILLA Nov07 Oct11 Sep21 Aug28 Jul31 (ryerson james )LEZCANO JOSE 122 6.00    
8  SELECTIVELY SWEET Nov24 Oct16 Sep13 Aug28 Jul26 (chichakly a)MARTINEZ R 122 20.00    
9  POWER DRIVER Dec27 Nov09 Oct03     (allard edward )CEDENO CAROL 122 4.50 9% 10.10    
 
AQU-8   01/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($45K) Purse ($78K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  GONE AND FORGOTTEN Jan02 Dec14 Nov21 Nov05 Oct21 (kantarmaci ilk)CIVACI SAHIN 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MOSIENKO Jan10 Dec12 Nov07 Oct06 Sep26 (kantarma)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 116 8.00    
2  DOLOMITE Aug25 Jul25 Dec02 Oct22 Sep01 (brown c)FRANCO MANUEL 123 1.40 61% 0.60    
3  RACING COLORS Jan02 Dec07 Nov03 Oct10 Sep13 (follett norman)BROWN DALTON 121 12.00    
4  BERNT AGAIN Nov15 Aug22 Jul24 Jan28 Dec14 (schettino )RIVERA R 121 8.00    
5  MALU Jan02 Dec07 Oct24 Jul24 Jul17 (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 123 3.00 16% 5.20    
6  THE SHOE LADY Dec12 Oct20 Sep13 Jun09 Apr07 (clement christo)CANCEL ERIC 121 15.00    
SCR  KARA PARA Dec12 Mar03 Jan07 Oct19 Sep22 (ryerson james )LUZZI J 121 20.00    
8  FAST AND FRISKY Dec15 May25 Apr14 Mar14 Feb09 (abreu r)LEZCANO JOSE 123 8.00    
9  CLOVER STREET Dec07 Oct20 Sep26 Feb19 Dec15 (hennig)MARAGH RAMSAY 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
AQU-9   01/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($36K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BIG EGO Dec15 Nov22 Nov02 Sep22 Aug28 (rodriguez gu)HARKIE K 122 20.00    
2  STORMY'S DREAMING Jan02 Dec01 Nov02 Aug28 Jul11 (baker charlton)CIVACI SAHIN 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  LAO WAY Nov02         (miceli )ELLIOTT CHRISTOPHER 117 20.00    
SCR  ALLOFASUDDENLEE Dec12 Nov22 Nov07 Apr26   (falcone rober)FRANCO MANUEL 122 8.00    
5  ME WISE MAGIC Oct31 Jun30       (bond ja)COA J 122 30.00    
SCR  JUDGE RULES Oct24 Sep27 Aug11 Jul26 Jun28 (rodriguez rud)SILVERA RUBEN 122 4.00 11% 7.80    
7  ALBEDO Dec15 Oct24 Sep22 Aug18 Jul18 (serpe ph)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 117 10.00    
8  LANDAUER Dec15 Nov30 Oct24 Sep27 Sep01 (sciacc)MARAGH RAMSAY 122 15.00    
9  ACCIDENTAL BID Nov29 Oct04 Aug21 Jun15   (donk david)LEZCANO JOSE 122 1.80 56% 0.80    
10  MAGIC BEACH Dec12 Nov22 Oct27 Sep03   (rice linda)CARMOUCHE K 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
11  DR HIGH Nov30         (henry neville)BROWN DALTON 122 50.00    
12  CATTANI Dec15 Oct24 Sep27 Aug11 Oct05 (nevin michelle)CANCEL ERIC 122 10.00 7% 12.70    
13  SWEET TONE Dec15 Nov22 Nov07 Sep27 Aug11 (sciacca gary)LUZZI J 122 30.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.