Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Penn National
Friday - November 17, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
PEN-1   WIN (5/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/6)-(5/6) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/6)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/6)-(3/1/4)-(8/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
PEN-2   WIN (3/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/4)-(3/1/4)-(3/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/4)-(8/9) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (3/1/4)-(8/9)-(5/1/4) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
PEN-3   WIN (8/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (8/9)-(8/9/7/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/9)-(8/9/7/4)-(8/9/7/4) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (8/9)-(5/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (8/9)-(5/1/4)-(1/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
PEN-4   WIN (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/4)-(5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/4)-(1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4)-(1/5)-(6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
PEN-5   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (1/5)-(6/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(6/2)-(3/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
PEN-6   WIN (6/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/2)-(6/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/2)-(3/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
PEN-7   WIN (3/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/5)-(3/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/5)-(3/6/5)-(3/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
PEN-1   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($31.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  JEAN VALJEAN Oct24 Sep13 Aug17 Jul12 Sep26 (merryman eliza)TORRES JOMAR 120 3.50    
2  EAGLES CRY Oct25 Oct16 Sep21 Sep01 Aug18 (stites w)CHIAPPE R 120 8.00    
3  DON'T LOSEMYMONEY Nov03 Sep20 Aug02 Jul07 Jun15 (moreno-barb)INIRIO J 120 6.00    
4  LOST IN NEWYORK Jul06 Jun17 May13 Mar02 Feb16 (rathman e)RODRIGUEZ R 120 6.00    
5  DOWNTOWNCHALYBROWN Oct25 Sep21 Aug18 Aug02 Jul06 (kreiser t)HERNANDEZ A 124 1.60 61% 0.60    
6  PICTOR Oct25 Aug02 Jul06 Jun15 May18 (kravets bru)SALGADO ANTHONY 120 3.00 12% 7.60    
 
PEN-2   11/17/2023 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($18.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUMPING RAINBOWS Oct27         (caiazzo c)RODRIGUEZ R 123 2.50 23% 3.40    
2  CHANNEL Z Oct12 Sep25 Sep18 Jul12 Jun21 (martinez jose)DIAZ VLADIMIR 124 3.00    
3  WILD VINE Nov03 Sep15 Feb08 Dec21   (stites fl)HERNANDEZ A 124 2.00 49% 1.00    
4  KEEN LOOKIN Sep09 Jul31 Jun26 May20   (caiazzo corby)BEATO INOEL 123 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  SALVO TRIGGER Oct26         (meister w)CRISPIN ALEXANDER 123 15.00    
6  BRADY Oct24 Oct12 Oct05 Sep04 Jul12 (rodriguez frankli)AGUILAR M 124 5.00    
 
PEN-3   11/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEMPESTUOUS Oct27 Oct17 Feb15 Jan16 Jan04 (salvaggio mar)DIAZ VLADIMIR 120 4.50    
2  LONG TOM Nov03 Oct25 Sep07 Aug24 Aug04 (salina)SMITH DANIEL 115 30.00    
3  SWEEPIN HARD Oct27 Sep15 Aug09 Jul06 Jun15 (jacklin theod)TUNON JORDANO 120 12.00    
4  MERCURY TEN Sep15 Aug30 Aug09 Jul06 Jun11 (shuman ma)RODRIGUEZ R 120 4.00 ★    
5  LAWLESSNESS Oct27 Oct12 Sep28 Sep07 Aug16 (lake a)BEATO INOEL 120 5.00    
6  MONEYONTHELINE Nov03 Sep20 Sep06 Jan13 Oct28 (cooper stacey)CORA D 120 6.00    
7  LARZ Oct26 Oct16 Sep21 Sep06 Aug16 (bobadilla)VARGAS L 119 6.00 ★    
8  SPEAK OF THE DEVIL (FR) Oct25 Sep30 Jul06 Jun21 Jun09 (graci kim)HERNANDEZ A 123 3.00 75% 0.30    
9  MR BOLDACIOUS Oct25 Sep28 Sep07 Aug24 Aug09 (bobadilla j )VILLEGAS JERRY 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
PEN-4   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($19K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LOVELY LIZA Oct29 Oct05 Sep04 Jun25 May29 (farrior a)RODRIGUEZ R 123 2.00 11% 8.50    
2  PEACE OUT Oct27 Sep30 Sep09 Aug05 Nov21 (meister w)HERNANDEZ A 120 4.00    
3  FOR CRYIN OUT LOUD Nov01 Oct09 Sep19 Aug29 Aug04 (gorham michae)ROJAS MARTINA 114 3.00    
4  ARROGANTE Oct27 Sep15 Jul28 Jul13 Jun22 (moreno tito)SALGADO ANTHONY 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  KAZ MUSIC Oct25 Sep21 Aug31 Aug23 Jul28 (sinnefia pauli)TORRES JOMAR 123 2.50 60% 0.70    
6  HAPPYBIRTHDAYCOREY Oct18 Aug03 Jun20 May12 Apr20 (meister w)CRISPIN ALEXANDER 120 12.00    
 
PEN-5   11/17/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($13.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAYTHEHORSEBWITHU Oct09 Aug02 Jun23 Jun09 May24 (graci kimbe)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 3.50 36% 1.80    
2  PUTTHEGLASSDOWN Sep20 Aug25 Aug04 Jul24 Jun28 (moreno tito)TORRES JOMAR 122 4.50    
SCR  LAKE NAKURU Nov01 Sep21 Sep07 Aug30 Jul26 (ferreira fernando)CORA D 122 15.00    
4  PATTY'S BOY Nov01 Sep30 Sep13 Aug08 Jul14 (graci kim)HERNANDEZ A 122 5.00    
5  DYNAMITE KARMA Sep15 Aug10 Jul27 Jun15 May11 (fields ke)RODRIGUEZ R 122 2.50 18% 4.50    
6  CAERUS Nov01 Oct05 Aug31 Aug23 Apr20 (lucas bonnie)BEATO INOEL 122 2.00    
 
PEN-6   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($18.1K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOUNTY KILLAH Oct26 Oct12 Sep20 Sep06 Aug26 (siculietan)GREENIDGE ELIJAH 116 8.00    
2  UPTOWN CHARLY GIRL         (stower)SMITH DANIEL 118 4.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  SOULFUL TARA Oct22 Sep23 Aug28 Jul31 May26 (pino mich)RODRIGUEZ R 123 1.60    
4  PELOSI         (martin jr)AGUILAR M 123 10.00    
5  SHORT OF DINERO Oct25         (deiter kelly)HALLIDAY VINCE 123 10.00    
6  TEXAS TANGIE Feb07 Dec14 Oct24     (kreiser c)CHIAPPE R 123 1.80 48% 1.10    
 
PEN-7   11/17/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOP TO A DECISION Oct26 Oct04 Sep14 Aug31 Aug10 (harigeorgio)INIRIO J 119 50.00    
2  BULLET ON TAP Nov08 Oct23 Oct02 Sep09 Aug19 (ramirez si)ROWLAND MADELINE 120 6.00    
3  KEYSTONE WARRIOR Oct26 Sep22 Sep14 Aug30 Aug03 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 119 2.00 55% 0.80    
4  SWEET FACTOR Oct28 Sep30 Aug24 Jul29 Jul22 (jones michae)TROTMAN KEIMAR 121 3.00    
5  SCOREBOARD LILY Oct26 Oct04 Sep22 Aug31 Jul26 (kravets m)AGUILAR M 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  MASKED HEROINE Oct17 Sep22 Sep08 Aug25 Aug10 (martinez jose)DIAZ VLADIMIR 120 5.00 13% 6.90    
7  ROAD TO DREAMS Nov08 Oct30 Oct11 Sep27 Aug29 (chacon gustavo)CHIAPPE R 119 4.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.