Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Penn National
Thursday - August 31, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
PEN-1   WIN (5/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/7)-(5/7) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/7)-(4/1) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    PK3 (5/7)-(4/1)-(9/7/10/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
PEN-2   WIN (4/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/1)-(4/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/1)-(9/7/10/1/3) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (4/1)-(9/7/10/1/3)-(6/3/4) 30 $1.00 $30.00 
PEN-3   WIN (9/7/10/1/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/7/10/1/3)-(9/7/10/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/7/10/1/3)-(9/7/10/1/3)-(9/7/10/1/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/7/10/1/3)-(6/3/4) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (9/7/10/1/3)-(6/3/4)-(7/1/5) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
PEN-4   WIN (6/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/4)-(6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/3/4)-(7/1/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/3/4)-(7/1/5)-(3/7/6) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
PEN-5   WIN (7/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/1/5)-(7/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/1/5)-(7/1/5)-(7/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (7/1/5)-(3/7/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (7/1/5)-(3/7/6)-(7/8/4/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PEN-6   WIN (3/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/6)-(3/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/6)-(3/7/6)-(3/7/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/7/6)-(7/8/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
PEN-7   WIN (7/8/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/8/4/5)-(7/8/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/8/4/5)-(7/8/4/5)-(7/8/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
PEN-1   08/31/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($25K) Purse ($22K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEWSDLEY Jul28 Jun20 Jun02 May06 Mar10 (sinnefia pauli)TORRES JOMAR 118 6.00    
SCR  WILL OR WON'T Aug23 Jul28 Jul03 Jun13 May31 (kreiser tim)INIRIO J 124 6.00    
3  ME DARLIN KATHLEEN Aug03 Jul20 Jun30 Jun22 May11 (kreiser c)CHIAPPE R 118 3.00    
4  SUGAR SMILE Aug08 Nov22 Oct12 Sep01 Jul13 (crook-dem)HERNANDEZ A 120 4.00    
5  NAIL POLISH Aug03 Jul07 May24 Apr21 Mar22 (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 120 2.50 31% 2.20    
SCR  CHEM MAJOR Aug12 Jul23 Jul01 Apr28 Mar24 (carrascojr vic)HIRALDO JOHN 120 10.00    
7  SEA ART Aug09 Jun17 Apr06 Oct15 Aug27 (carrascoj)RODRIGUEZ R 120 6.00 25% 3.10    
 
PEN-2   08/31/2023 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($17K) 2 F PT- 6:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWIN E         (crane clovi)INIRIO J 118 3.50 23% 3.40    
2  CONTEMPTUOUS MISS Aug23         (albrig)SMITH DANIEL 108 6.00    
SCR  BELLA CARMELINA         (aristone ph)DE KEMICH 111 3.00    
4  BERNIE'S DREAMING         (bailes r)HUMPHREY WILLIAM 118 2.50 55% 0.80    
5  MARIA SAYS SO Aug21         (aristone philip )CASTILLO A 118 10.00    
SCR  WILD CREATION Aug23 Jul28 Jul18 May23   (albright geor)TUNON JORDANO 118 3.00    
 
PEN-3   08/31/2023 5280ft TURF RC6 FIRM Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MACHO HONCHO Aug09 Jul27 Jul07 Mar17 Feb24 (salvaggio mich)CONNER TYLER 120 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  OMERTA CODE Aug09 Jul19 Jun21 Jun14 May20 (arce josue)VASQUEZ WILFRED 122 30.00    
3  WICKED IRISHMAN Aug17 Aug04 Jul14 Jun29 Oct14 (wolfe j)CORUJO LEONARDO 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  THE MAN TO SEE Aug09 Jul13 Jun21 May25 May10 (dowling wil)INIRIO J 122 4.00    
5  RED DEVOLUTION Aug09 Jul19 Jun21 Apr27 Feb23 (albright amy)TUNON JORDANO 122 12.00    
6  MISCHIEF WARRIOR Aug17 Jul31 Jun29 Jun14 May18 (kulp bran)RODRIGUEZ R 122 4.00    
7  LUCKY RUNNING CAT Aug09 Jul19 Jun21 May31 May10 (crook-dem)HERNANDEZ A 122 3.00 13% 6.50    
8  RIVERBOAT BANDIT Aug09 Jul19 Jun21 Jun14 May17 (cifarelli fr)VILLEGAS JERRY 120 30.00    
9  ROAN FOR THE ROSE Aug09 Jun16 May03 Apr18 Mar23 (moreno tito)BEATO INOEL 122 3.50 50% 1.00    
10  GETTIN'DOWNONIT Aug11 Jul09 Jun23 May31 May19 (beecher mark)HIRALDO JOHN 122 6.00 10% 9.30    
 
PEN-4   08/31/2023 3960ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LET'S GO MO Aug23 Aug04 Jul12 Jun20 May18 (miller marlin)ROJAS MARTINA 115 50.00    
2  KAZ MUSIC Aug23 Jul28 Jul06 Jun16 May25 (sinnefia pauli)CONNER TYLER 120 3.50    
3  MADI'S TUNE Jul21 Jun22 May25     (kravets bru)SALGADO ANTHONY 122 3.00 27% 2.70    
4  UNION FOLLY Aug04 Jul13 Jun22 Jun01 Apr29 (houghton thomas)BEATO INOEL 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  MIGHTY GIN GIN Aug03 Apr23 Mar16     (carrascoj)HERNANDEZ A 122 4.50    
6  HAPPY RIDE Aug04 Jun30 Jun22 Jun10 May12 (kreiser t)RODRIGUEZ R 122 2.00 48% 1.10    
7  UPTOWN SERAPHINA Aug08 Jul07 Jun16 Apr20 Mar10 (houghton thomas)CORA D 120 6.00    
 
PEN-5   08/31/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIKEY'S JEWEL Aug08 Jul26 Jul14 May24 May11 (salinas jose)FLORES E 120 6.00 8% 11.30    
2  MANI PEDI Aug08 Jul14 Jun09 Jun02 May20 (castillo mich)RIVERA D 122 8.00    
SCR  CREME CARAMEL Aug05 Jul18 Jun07 May16 Apr26 (caban e)RUIZ ELISEO 113 8.00    
4  FAVORITE DOLL Jun16 May19 Apr28 Mar31 Mar23 (ferreira fernando)CORA D 120 6.00    
5  TONALA Aug17 Jul25 Jul04 Jun20 Jun07 (santaella-cal)OCASIO M 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
6  HIDDEN SPRINGS Aug16 Jul14 May31 May04 Mar15 (graci a)AGUILAR M 120 4.50    
7  WILL TAKE ROSES Aug17 Jun16 May26 May06 Mar31 (o'callaha)RODRIGUEZ R 120 1.40 65% 0.50    
 
PEN-6   08/31/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CAERUS Aug23 Apr20 Mar26 Mar10 Mar04 (lucas bonni)INIRIO J 120 5.00    
2  FORECLOSURE Aug02 Jul12 May17 Apr26 Mar30 (moreno tito)BEATO INOEL 120 10.00    
3  REBEL RULER Aug02 Jun15 May12 Apr29 Mar16 (graci kim)HERNANDEZ A 120 3.50 34% 2.00    
4  SHANGHAI CANDY Aug23 Jul26 Jul05 Jun14 May19 (kreiser c)CORA D 120 4.50    
5  COOL COMEDIAN Aug10 Jul12 Jun20 Jun01 Apr20 (synnefias pana)CONNER TYLER 120 3.00    
6  COLONEL MOORHEAD Jul26 Jun15 May26 Mar16 Feb10 (rathman e)RODRIGUEZ R 122 6.00 9% 10.20    
7  MY REDEMPTION Jul27 Jul12 May03 Feb08 Jan30 (sullivan ellio)HIRALDO JOHN 120 4.00 21% 3.80    
 
PEN-7   08/31/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUSTICE OR APPEAL Aug02 Jul13 Jun20 May16 Mar31 (graci kim)HERNANDEZ A 118 10.00    
2  HIGHWAY QUEEN Aug16 Jul13 Jun28 Jun16 Jun01 (miller marlin)ROJAS MARTINA 113 12.00    
3  ESTA CHUCK Aug10 Jul13 Jun28 Jun01 May04 (jacavone joh)VILLEGAS JERRY 120 30.00    
4  SCOREBOARD LILY Jul26 Jul12 Jun30 Jun22 May18 (kravets m)AGUILAR M 122 2.00 7% 13.00    
5  BOUND BY TRUTH Aug17 Aug02 Jul13 Jun22 Jun01 (stites flin)INIRIO J 120 8.00 7% 13.10    
6  HOP TO A DECISION Aug10 Jul28 Jul12 Jun20 Jun02 (houghton thomas)CORA D 120 10.00    
7  PAYNT BY NUMBER Aug17 Jul26 Mar15 Feb09 Jan11 (mcclellan erin)CONNER TYLER 120 2.50 44% 1.30    
8  ROSE VALLEY Aug10 Jul20 Jun30 Jun20 May18 (beattie todd )DIAZ VLADIMIR 124 3.00 17% 4.70    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.