Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Saturday - August 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-3   WIN (2/1/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/5)-(2/1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/5)-(2/1/5)-(2/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (2/1/5)-(5/1/2)-(2/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ARP-4   WIN (5/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/2)-(5/1/2)-(5/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/1/2)-(2/1)-(6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ARP-5   WIN (2/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/1)-(2/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (2/1)-(6/3)-(3/7/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ARP-6   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(3/7/6)-(1/3/6/4) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-7   WIN (3/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/6)-(3/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/6)-(3/7/6)-(3/7/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-8   WIN (1/3/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/6/4)-(1/3/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/6/4)-(1/3/6/4)-(1/3/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-3   08/12/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($12.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CENTAURUS Jul22 Jun19 Mar04 Feb06 Jan03 (martinez a)WALES T 124 3.50 25% 2.90    
2  LUCYS MAJOR MIRCLE Jul30 Jul15 Jul02 Oct01 Sep11 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 120 2.50 46% 1.20    
3  TIME TO SKIP TOWN Jul31 Jun25 Oct02 Sep19 Aug28 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
4  DOCS CARO CAT Jul30 Oct01 Sep13 Aug30 Jul17 (vicchrilli rus)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 20.00    
5  HOLY MISSION Jul30 Jul23       (hall monk)RAMEY CASH 115 4.50 7% 14.10    
 
ARP-4   08/12/2023 3630ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($3.5K) Purse ($6.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAGER NO MO Jul30 Jul15 Jul01 May06 Apr15 (deisley gale)RAMOS B 124 3.50 25% 3.00    
2  PREACHER Jul15 Jun25 Jun17 May13 Apr15 (hibdon mark)MORALES ROBERTO 124 4.50 19% 4.30    
3  MOONLITE GRAHAM Jul03 Apr22 Apr12 Mar29 Feb25 (barraza s)WALES T 124 2.50    
4  OREGON COUNTY Jul30 Jun25 May20 May13 Apr28 (hibdon n)HAAR NATHAN 124 6.00    
5  A GEM IS A GEM Jul23 Jul15 Jun17 May13 Apr29 (wheeler travis)LULL E 124 4.00 34% 2.00    
SCR  DOUBLETROUBLE BEAR Jul03 Jun19 May20 May12 Apr21 (young don)MEDINA ANGEL 124 10.00    
 
ARP-5   08/12/2023 3630ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AVALON KING Sep10 Aug13 Aug08 Jul18 Jul02 (o'brien debbie)RAMEY CASH 119 20.00 21% 3.70    
2  REVIVAL Jul13 Jul05 May10 Apr24 Mar28 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 124 2.50 33% 2.00    
3  BEDROCK (GB) Jun19 Jun03 Apr26 Apr17 Mar27 (christian billy)LULL E 124 4.50    
SCR  ANNIE'S BOY Apr22 Apr03 Feb25 Feb04 Apr21 (barraza raf)MORALES ROBERTO 124 12.00    
5  WHEELER DEALER Jul30 Jul10 Jun23 Jun03 Oct04 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 117 3.50    
 
ARP-6   08/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($9.7K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CANDIED JOULE Jul17 May21 May07 Apr22 Apr08 (wheeler travis)LULL E 124 15.00    
  (by SEA CANDY RIDE out of CLEVER CADENCE by CRAFTY PROSPECTOR)
2  WHEREDIDITGO Aug06 Jul23 Jun25 Mar20 Mar12 (torres-casas)JOURNET JARRED 120 4.50    
  (by COLLECTED out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
3  ISLAND BEAUTY Jun24 Jan03 Dec15 Nov25 Nov08 (ortega joe)MORALES ROBERTO 120 20.00 5% 18.80    
  (by HONOR CODE out of ISLA by CARNIVALAY)
SCR  SNOOZY SUZY Aug06 Jun27 May21 May08 Apr18 (torres-casas ale)RAMEY CASH 119 10.00    
  (by CONGRATS out of SUMMER CAMP by FLAG DOWN)
SCR  MISSIONARY MARY         (rust terr)MEDINA ANGEL 120 6.00    
  (by CAT BURGLAR out of VERCELLANA by COLONEL JOHN)
6  STARLET COLE Jul17         (kenney dan)WALES T 120 2.50 66% 0.50    
  (by CLOUD COMPUTING out of WELKEN by SKY CLASSIC)
 
ARP-7   08/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST CTBA Lassie Purse ($34.803K) 2 F PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I'M GONE Jul29 Jul08       (triana mart)RAMEY CASH 120 4.50    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of LADY POSSE by POSSE)
2  I'M A TRUMPER Jul29         (triana juan)MORALES ALLYSSA 120 12.00    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of SWEETPRINCESSCHARM by SWEETSOUTHERNSAINT)
3  LONG MAY SHE RUN Jul29         (parsons ril)MORALES ROBERTO 120 2.00 51% 1.00    
  (by KLIMT out of RATE OF EXCHANGE by EXCHANGE RATE)
SCR  MISS YOU NO MORE         (rushton temple)RAMOS B 120 6.00    
  (by ELMAZEED out of MISS YOU HOME by FIVE STAR DAY)
5  FLY FREE Jul29 Jul08       (triana juan )MARTIN A 120 10.00    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of R S JOY by KITTEN'S JOY)
6  ROGUE MOON         (mcdonald )MEDINA ANGEL 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MOON ECLIPSE out of PETULANT by PURGE)
7  SNUGGLE BUNNY Jul29         (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 120 5.00 20% 4.00    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of SHEETS by SCATMANDU)
 
ARP-8   08/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 Claiming ($3.5K) Purse ($6K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DONNAS FINAL WORD Jul30 Oct03 Sep25 Sep13 Aug30 (vicchrilli russel)RAMOS B 121 2.50 26% 2.90    
2  GEORGIANO Jul30 Jul16 Jun25 May15 Nov26 (williams steve)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 20.00    
3  REMARKABLE CHARM Aug07 Jul22 Jun24 May19 Apr22 (roberts m)LULL E 124 3.50 24% 3.10    
4  HIGH VALUE TARGET Jul22 Jul02 Apr22 Apr07 Apr01 (lemburg m)MEDINA ANGEL 124 12.00 6% 15.30    
5  HOT LIL MESS Jul30 Jul03 Apr09 Mar05 Feb19 (megariz mic)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 6.00    
6  KALLINIKI Jul22 Jul10 Dec19 Nov30 Nov14 (muckey john)RAMEY CASH 119 15.00 19% 4.20    
7  IMA FINAL DE BUY Jul22 Sep26 Sep12     (loftin linda)HAAR NATHAN 121 4.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.