Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 18, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/18/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MARINA'S GOLD Sep03 Aug06 Jul17     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.00 ★    
2  GIN N SIN Jul03 Jun19 May19 May04 Apr08 (roberson dennis)COURT K 121 3.50    
3  STUPENDOUS Jul29 Jul15 Jun12 Mar18 Feb06 (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.50 50% 1.00    
4  AFLEET ARLENE         (baker james)JOHNSON M 121 12.00 ★    
5  SWEET VALERIA Mar19 Feb11       (foster eric)HOLMES GAGE 114 15.00 ★    
6  BIRD HUNTER         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00    
7  CONTESSINA Aug26 Jun29       (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 121 2.50 26% 2.80    
8  START CLASS Jul01 May29 May03     (medley joseph)RIQUELME J 121 30.00    
 
CD-2   09/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  BARGAIN HUNTER         (divito james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00 ★    
SCR  TAMARA'S WAY         (demeritte)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 ★    
3  FRIGID LADY Aug26 Jul22 Jul01     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 1.40 58% 0.70    
4  CAPTIVE STAR         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 12.00 ★    
5  UNIFIED DECISION Aug06 Jun25       (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
6  MY LADY LUNA         (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 12.00    
7  SHE'LL NEVER KNOW Aug05 Jun29       (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 119 3.50 11% 8.30    
8  MARSANNE Aug19 Aug07 Jul01     (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 4.00    
 
CD-3   09/18/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KISS PRINCIPAL Aug13 Jun23 May14 Mar18 Feb20 (hartlage g)JOHNSON M 118 10.00 ★    
2  MOON DOG Aug17 Jul19 Jun19 May30 Apr30 (glyshaw tim)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
3  MR CREED         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 32% 2.20    
4  TONAL IMPACT Aug10 Jul15 May29 Apr15 Mar11 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 122 1.80 31% 2.30    
5  MEGA CHARLIE Aug12 Jul25 Jul08 Jun17 Jun03 (mor)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 122 3.50 ★    
6  YONO Aug03 Apr14 Mar19 Feb19 Jan09 (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 118 4.50 ★    
 
CD-4   09/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TREPAT Jun26         (ennis john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 3.50 5% 17.70    
SCR  HILL OF TARA Aug06 Jul02 Jun19 May05   (ennis john)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 ★    
2  ONCE UPON A DREAM         (diodoro )SANTANA JR 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  TIZRIDE         (sherman alan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
4  LOONY         (lau)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 20.00    
5  OLAZABAL Aug28 Aug06       (delgado gustavo)BEJARANO R 119 12.00    
6  EASY BIG BOY Aug27 Jul22 Jul02 Jun10 May20 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 19% 4.30    
7  TALKSCHEAP Aug30         (pitts helen)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  BREAD WINNER Jun09         (amoss tho)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
9  GOLD LUCK Aug22         (walsh bre)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 4.00 48% 1.10    
10  RANSAM PAYNTER         (morse l)DIAZ RENE 114 12.00    
11  COLLECTORATE Aug27 Aug06 Jul08     (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
12  DIXIE FURY         (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 15.00    
 
CD-5   09/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($54K) 3 F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOHAYLADY Jul24 Jun22 May21 May03 Apr08 (lukas wa)MICHEL MICKAELLE 118 6.00 ★    
2  DAWNLAND Jul31 Jun23 May21 May01 Apr01 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 26% 2.80    
3  CANT BE TOUCHED Aug19 Mar11 Jan22     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.00 46% 1.20    
4  I CROSS MY HEART Aug27 Jun24 May30 May06 Mar13 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 3.50 ★    
5  FEELING HAPPY Jun03 May06 Apr10     (baker james)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 6.00 ★    
6  HIGH SPEED Aug23 Aug04 Jul07 Jun18 May14 (forster grant)GILLIGAN JACK 120 5.00    
 
CD-6   09/18/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ABSOLUTE COURAGE Sep03         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 124 4.00 15% 5.90    
2  RAMPATIOUS Jul31 Apr29       (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 120 15.00    
3  CHIRON Aug05 Apr02 Mar19 Feb21   (combs bentley)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00    
SCR  MO HAPPY         (thompson bo)STERRITT KENDAL 117 30.00    
5  TOWN BRANCH Jul03 Jun02 Apr09 Mar05   (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 120 8.00 ★    
6  MAASAI WARRIOR Mar19 Feb19 Jan22     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 1.80 50% 1.00    
7  REDEMPTION TIME Jul31         (calhoun willia)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 12.00    
8  FAIR DINKUM         (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
9  MINT Sep01         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 124 8.00 9% 9.70    
10  BOURBON ON FIRE Aug13 Jun24 Jun05     (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 120 6.00    
 
CD-7   09/18/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRACEFUL UNION         (devaux cherie)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 15.00    
2  KLASSY BRIDGETTE         (hartman c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00    
3  SAVE YOUR TEARS Aug14 Jul31       (courville ricky)COHEN DAVID 119 15.00    
4  POSITANO SUNSET         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 15.00    
5  WINDY BAY Aug05         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00    
6  WITS AND WAGERS Aug07         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
7  SOUPER EXPLOSIVE         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 6.00 ★    
8  PAINT ME PERFECT         (margolis stephe)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
9  SAENZ         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 21% 3.80    
10  SHE'S MAGIC         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
11  FEE Aug05         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 5.00 38% 1.60    
12  PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 20% 3.90    
SCR  STAR POSE Aug07 Jul09 Jun19     (lukas way)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
SCR  ROMAN GODDESS         (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 ★    
SCR  INDY AGAIN         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00    
SCR  INTO LOVE         (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00    
 
CD-8   09/18/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALEBRIJE Sep01 Aug15 Jul12 Jun16 May14 (lopez elia)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  EMERALD EXPRESS Jul24 Jun08 May20 Mar18 Feb21 (maker mich)CORRALES GERARDO 121 3.00 14% 6.40    
3  BELFAST BOY Aug20 Jul10 Jun08 May19 Apr07 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 121 8.00    
4  EL FRANCO Jul17 Jun22 May30 May12 Apr21 (norris mike)COURT K 121 20.00    
SCR  HOT PASTRAMI Jul07 Apr08 Mar19     (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
6  SHACKLEFORD STRONG Jun30         (asmussen)SANTANA JR 121 4.50 ★    
7  LUCKY PROMISE Aug17 Jul17 Jul08 Jun23 May29 (vance d)LANERIE J 121 20.00    
8  RED LABEL Jul17 Jun22 May29 Apr23 Feb11 (demeritte )VILLASANA CARLOS 118 12.00    
9  PURE PANIC Jun21 May29 May07 Apr10 Feb28 (cano munoz)DIAZ RENE 113 12.00 6% 15.90    
10  MOUNT ATHOS Aug13 Jul04 May30 May12 Apr15 (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 1.40 53% 0.90    
 
CD-9   09/18/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROC'S PRINCESS Aug14 Jul03 Jun02     (gowan william)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00    
2  TAKE CARE Aug07 Jul10       (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 28% 2.60    
3  IMPLOSION Aug06         (margolis )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
4  DUPLICITOUS Sep01 Aug07 Jul08 Jun23 Apr29 (hawley wes)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 12.00    
5  DOROTHEA Jul17 Jun26       (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00    
6  DAME JOVIALE Aug14         (arnold r)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
7  STANLEY MARKET Jul01 Jun11 May22 Apr22 Mar24 (morse l)COURT K 118 15.00    
SCR  OUTLINING Jul23 Jun28 May19     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
SCR  RESPECTFUL Aug19         (brisset )SANTANA JR 118 5.00 5% 17.50    
10  BELLA RUNNER Aug26 Mar05 Jan01     (asmussen )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 12.00 ★    
11  ICE ORCHID Feb26 Feb11 Jan14     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.00 20% 4.00    
12  ROCKIE CAUSEWAY         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
SCR  NOSILVERSPOONSHERE Jul09 Jun11 Apr27     (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 6.00 25% 3.10    
14  AUNT NAUGHTY Aug31 Jul28 Jun09 Apr15 Jan27 (mcgaughey)HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
SCR  RING ME DARLING Aug14 Jul03 Jun18 May22   (garcia genaro)DIAZ RENE 113 15.00    
 
CD-10   09/18/2022 5280ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  YORK TAVERN Jul16 Jun08       (devaux c)SANTANA JR 120 10.00 ★    
2  RESERVE CURRENCY         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.00    
3  SHIPMAN Sep03 Jul24 Jul01 Jun05 May21 (green troy)BEJARANO R 124 3.50 52% 0.90    
4  ELECTROMAGNETIC         (pletcher )LEPAROUX R 120 10.00    
SCR  LYSANDER         (mott william )GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.00 18% 4.50    
6  WORKINFROMHOME Aug12 Jul27 Jun05 Apr30 Apr01 (guerrero sal)MILLER CHASE 124 30.00 8% 11.20    
7  EAGLE FEATHER Aug08         (rodriguez ge)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 30.00    
8  CALL ME FAST Aug13 Jul16 Jun25     (puhich mi)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 10.00    
9  BOCO Aug07         (hamilton troy)AYALA ISAIAS 120 30.00    
10  MAJESTIC FLAG         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 12.00    
11  HIGGINSON         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.00 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.