Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Churchill Downs
Friday - June 13, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CD-1   WIN (5/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/4)-(5/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/4)-(5/3/4)-(5/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/4)-(8/7/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/4)-(8/7/6/4)-(2/1/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (8/7/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/6/4)-(8/7/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/6/4)-(8/7/6/4)-(8/7/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/7/6/4)-(2/1/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/6/4)-(2/1/4)-(1/5/4/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/1/4)-(2/1/4)-(2/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/1/4)-(1/5/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4)-(1/5/4/8)-(10/5/6/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/5/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/4/8)-(1/5/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/4/8)-(1/5/4/8)-(1/5/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5/4/8)-(10/5/6/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/5/4/8)-(10/5/6/1)-(3/7/5) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-5   WIN (10/5/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/5/6/1)-(10/5/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (10/5/6/1)-(10/5/6/1)-(10/5/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (10/5/6/1)-(3/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (10/5/6/1)-(3/7/5)-(5/2/4/8) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-6   WIN (3/7/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/7/5)-(3/7/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/7/5)-(3/7/5)-(3/7/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/7/5)-(5/2/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/5)-(5/2/4/8)-(6/1/3/11) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-7   WIN (5/2/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/4/8)-(5/2/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/4/8)-(5/2/4/8)-(5/2/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/2/4/8)-(6/1/3/11) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/2/4/8)-(6/1/3/11)-(2/6/7/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/1/3/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/3/11)-(6/1/3/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/3/11)-(6/1/3/11)-(6/1/3/11) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/3/11)-(2/6/7/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CD-9   WIN (2/6/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/7/1)-(2/6/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/7/1)-(2/6/7/1)-(2/6/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CD-1   06/13/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PREPOSITION May18 Sep28 Aug24     (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 3.00    
POST GAME May15 Apr16 Nov23 Aug17   (eurton pe)PEDROZA MARCELINO 118 8.00    
NYQUIST FREQUENCY May15 Apr12 Mar02 Dec07 Oct31 (blair jordan)TORRES A 125 2.50 30% 2.30    
BON TEMPS May03 Mar29 Mar07 Feb08 Jan25 (lukas wayne)JUAREZ NIK 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
SINISTER SMILE May24 Apr26 Mar22 Feb23 Dec14 (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 118 1.20 47% 1.10    
MOR SUCCESS May29 Apr29 Feb08 Jan23 Dec27 (labra rogeli)BURGOS ALBERTO 118 30.00    
 
CD-2   06/13/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 WET FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VIX May10 Apr17       (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00    
SILVER SCREEN May26         (pomier chasey )ROCCO S 118 20.00    
TRACK RANGER Feb07 Jan16 Dec06 Nov08 Sep25 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 118 6.00    
BERNIEDOTT May08 Apr26       (king barr)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SOCO AND LIME May25 Mar08 Jul21 Jun21   (williamson b)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 3.50    
SILENT BREEZE May17 Apr30 Mar07 Feb14 Jan18 (hancock a)LANERIE J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
CHADO Aug17 Aug01 Jul18 May19 Apr25 (mccutchen jaso)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.50 6% 15.60    
DELTA TAU CHI May15 Jun09 May13     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 2.50 65% 0.50    
 
CD-3   06/13/2025 5610ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($76K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COLONIAL ROSE Apr23 Mar06 Dec26 Nov29 Oct17 (casse w)ORTIZ L 118 3.50 11% 8.20    
WINDY WALK May18 Apr24 Jan18 Dec26 Nov20 (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 120 1.40 60% 0.70    
CLASSIC PERFORMER Apr24 Mar22 Feb16 Jan25 Jan04 (forster gr)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00    
ASIAN MATRIARCH May16 Jan26 Jan01 Nov29 Oct26 (sweezey kent)BEJARANO R 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
WHERE'S THE WINE May15 Mar06 Feb13 Dec12 Oct30 (antonuik)RODRIGUEZ A 118 5.00    
GILA May30 Mar10 Jan01 Nov29 Sep21 (hess b)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00    
 
CD-4   06/13/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHAT'S HER NUMBER May09 Apr16 Feb17 Jan26 Jan05 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.00 34% 2.00    
RANCH LIFE May31 May21 May08 Apr09 Mar28 (douaihy michel)ROMAN A 120 15.00    
STARLIT SOFI May17 Apr29 Mar26 Mar13 Jan03 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 123 8.00    
JUDY'S FLYER May18 Apr29 Mar12 Jan29 Jan02 (garcia gena)GUTIERREZ MARIO 120 6.00 12% 7.30    
HEARTS UNITED May17 Apr29 Mar21 Feb26 Jan26 (tomlinson micha)LANERIE J 118 8.00 20% 4.00    
ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY Apr28 Mar07 Jan22 Jan05 Oct14 (jacobson dav)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 12.00    
SCR  MUSTANG LADY Apr11 Feb22 Jan23 Dec26 Nov29 (newton tr)LEPAROUX R 123 4.00    
TIZNTSHELOVELY May09 Apr26 Mar04 Jan03 Dec16 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 9% 10.20    
SCR  BELLE CHERIE Apr27 Mar07 Feb16 Dec20 Oct10 (maker michael )ORTIZ L 123 3.50    
 
CD-5   06/13/2025 5610ft DIRT RC9 SLOPPY Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LA SCALONETA Mar12 Feb20 Jan24 Nov30 Jun06 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MALIBU SMART May29 Feb28 Jan19 Dec21 Mar30 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 124 4.00    
FREAK CITY May17 Apr18 Mar14 Feb14 Jan03 (jacobs )DE CRUZ 124 20.00    
SCR  THREE COINS Apr06 Mar15 Feb12 Jan29 Mar16 (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 124 20.00    
CHA CHA CHUKKA Apr23 Feb12 Jan15 Dec19 Nov30 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 5.00 29% 2.40    
POPPY THE PRINCESS May17 Apr12 Feb26 Jan26 Dec26 (newton troy)MONCADA IRVING 113 6.00 17% 4.90    
SCR  MISSY BEE May17 Apr23 Mar22 Feb22 Feb06 (foster eric)LANERIE J 124 5.00    
AVISO May25 Apr12 Feb23 Feb01 Jan04 (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
CAVATELLI May17 Apr17 Sep04     (foster er)TORRES A 118 15.00    
10  BREAD TO RUN Apr26 Apr07 Jan31 Dec18 Oct06 (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 32% 2.10    
11  TIGER DIVISION May08 Feb21 Jan24 Nov02 Oct10 (arnold ge)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 10.00    
 
CD-6   06/13/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GOLD LUCK May16 Feb24 Jan23 Nov17 Nov02 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 121 15.00    
HARRODSBURG May23 Apr12 Nov23 Oct30 Sep14 (tomlinson mich)ORTIZ L 123 3.50    
NASH May01 Mar26 Feb01 Jun08 May04 (cox h)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.00 35% 1.90    
MAJOR BLUE May23 Mar22 Feb24 Jan31 Jan05 (lukas wayne)JUAREZ NIK 121 20.00    
DONCHO Apr18 Jun05 May05 Apr05 Feb13 (lovell miche)TORRES A 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
RED STATE Apr26 Mar07 Jan26 May26 Apr13 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.00    
DISCREET MISCHIEF Apr12 Mar04 Jun19 May04 Apr06 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 2.50 25% 3.00    
 
CD-7   06/13/2025 5610ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CATMINT May30 May11 Apr07 Feb14 Dec14 (hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 15.00    
CHILLED Apr23 Apr06 Nov29 Nov13 Oct17 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 17% 4.80    
STANDOUTSENSATION Apr27 Mar15 Feb15 Jan17 Dec20 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 124 2.50    
LEMON MUFFIN May16 May03 Apr06 Feb28 Feb01 (lukas wayne)JUAREZ NIK 124 4.00 14% 5.90    
LITTLE JAMIE Apr23 Feb08 Jan11 Nov13 Sep21 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 122 4.50 37% 1.70    
PRETTY LAYLA Mar07 Feb15 Jan31 Jan18 Dec22 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 122 5.00    
WINDY BAY Oct26 Sep19 Aug19 Jun22 Jun05 (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00    
SULTRY LASS May18 Feb07 Dec27 Nov29 Nov08 (lovell miche)TORRES A 122 8.00 7% 14.30    
 
CD-8   06/13/2025 7920ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DOMINGO May01 Apr09 Mar01 Aug03 Jul08 (oliver victori)ORTIZ L 124 5.00 16% 5.40    
MIDNIGHT CHANNEL May11 Feb14 Jan19 Nov21 Oct22 (van tho)TORRES A 124 30.00    
FORT THOMAS May18 Apr24 Nov03 Oct10 Sep08 (arnold ge)DETTORI LANFRANCO 124 10.00 7% 12.50    
SCR  HARD MISSION May12 Mar13 Feb21 Feb07 Dec13 (meah anna)PEDROZA MARCELINO 124 30.00    
SCR  MY BOY TONY May18 Apr24 Mar18 Feb15 Nov21 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 124 3.00    
PRESIDER May18 May01 Apr09 Feb28 Jan31 (russell brittany)CURTIS BEN 124 6.00 53% 0.90    
SCR  NAVY SEAL (IRE) May25 May18 Apr25 Apr09 Mar29 (ward a)MACHADO LUAN 124 4.00    
EMERGENCE May09 Mar01 Feb01     (cox brad )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
SCR  VESTING (IRE) Mar28 Mar02 Jan05 Oct03 Aug24 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50    
10  MALCOLM X (PER) May24 Apr26       (zanelli dante)BEJARANO R 124 20.00    
11  UNSTABLE PRINCE May26 May03 Apr13 Mar08 Feb17 (shirer ma)TORRES A 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
12  THE HIDDEN CHAMBER May26 Mar22 Feb01 Jan18 Oct12 (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 30.00    
SCR  GREYSTONE Apr24 Mar29 Mar02 Feb01 Jan05 (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 124 8.00    
 
CD-9   06/13/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($40K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
INDY CHARGES ON May01 Apr10 Feb14 Dec20   (davis christop)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
ASK ARTHUR May23 Apr19 Mar05 Jan26 Dec21 (sims p)BEJARANO R 124 5.00 48% 1.10    
SHORTSTOP May01 Apr06 Feb13 Jan15 Dec14 (colebrook ben)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.50    
ULTIMATE STRIKE May29 Mar02 Feb03 Dec22 Nov14 (santamaria )GUTIERREZ MARIO 124 8.00    
MUGATU May10 Apr10 Jan23 Dec22 Dec15 (bogle fergus)RAMOS D 124 12.00    
THOMAS AQUINAS Apr19 Feb01 Nov21 Oct18 Sep05 (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 124 3.50 21% 3.80    
MO GO May03 Apr18 Mar07 May18 Feb17 (ashford h)TORRES A 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
DEREK'S LAW May09 Jan20 Nov01 Sep27   (amoss m)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
SCR  BAYTOWN BRUISER May30 May16 May01 Apr10 May31 (king l)GARCIA MARTIN 124 4.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.