Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 15, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (2/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/6)-(2/4/6)-(2/4/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/6)-(4/6/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/4/6)-(4/6/3/2)-(10/2/5/6/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (4/6/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/3/2)-(4/6/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/3/2)-(4/6/3/2)-(4/6/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/3/2)-(10/2/5/6/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/6/3/2)-(10/2/5/6/7)-(1/7/5/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-3   WIN (10/2/5/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/2/5/6/7)-(10/2/5/3/6/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (10/2/5/6/7)-(10/2/5/3/6/7)-(10/2/5/3/6/7) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (10/2/5/6/7)-(1/7/5/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/2/5/6/7)-(1/7/5/4)-(4/7/8/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-4   WIN (1/7/5/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/5/4)-(1/7/5/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/5/4)-(1/7/5/4)-(1/7/5/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/7/5/4)-(4/7/8/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (1/7/5/4)-(4/7/8/2)-(4/7/6/9/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/7/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/7/8/2)-(4/7/5/8/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (4/7/8/2)-(4/7/5/8/2)-(4/7/5/8/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (4/7/8/2)-(4/7/6/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/7/8/2)-(4/7/6/9/5)-(3/6/10/12/5) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-6   WIN (4/7/6/9/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/7/6/9/5)-(4/7/6/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/7/6/9/5)-(4/7/6/9/5)-(4/7/6/9/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/7/6/9/5)-(3/6/10/12/5) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/7/6/9/5)-(3/6/10/12/5)-(3/10/12/4/9) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-7   WIN (3/6/10/12/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/6/10/12/5)-(3/6/10/12/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/6/10/12/5)-(3/6/10/12/5)-(3/6/10/12/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/6/10/12/5)-(3/10/12/4/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/10/12/4/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/10/12/4/9)-(3/10/12/4/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/10/12/4/9)-(3/10/12/4/9)-(3/10/12/4/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/15/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BALLADRY Apr22 Mar14 Nov29 Nov13 Sep13 (pitts helen)ROCCO S 123 3.50    
2  WHERE'S THE WINE Mar06 Feb13 Dec12 Oct30 Sep15 (catalano w)LOVEBERRY JARETH 123 2.50 46% 1.20    
3  PRINCESS POM POM Mar19 Feb27 Feb02 Jan16 Jan04 (forster t)LANERIE J 123 3.00    
4  ASK AMANDA Apr26 Mar26 Mar15 Feb22 Oct25 (bahena is)PEDROZA MARCELINO 123 6.00 16% 5.30    
SCR  SPIRIT RULES Apr25 Jan23 Nov30 Nov03 Oct14 (santamaria car)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 2.00    
6  ITSABLINGTHING Mar29 Mar22 Mar05 Jan31 Nov29 (barrett roddin)MILLER CHASE 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-2   05/15/2025 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHIQUITA'S WAY Apr23         (esquivel jesus)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by CROSS TRAFFIC out of CARRIE by GONE ASTRAY)
2  SWIFTLIKETAYLOR         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 8.00 6% 16.20    
  (by CINCO CHARLIE out of SWIFTERTHANTAYLOR by MY GOLDEN SONG)
3  COLOR COMIN' IN         (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50 6% 15.30    
  (by ROCK YOUR WORLD out of SLEEPLESS DIXIE by DIXIE UNION)
4  SHEZ TWISTED         (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 2.50 35% 1.80    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of LIMITED VIEW by FREEDOM CHILD)
5  RATHER LATE         (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of RATHER BEAUTIFUL by MALIBU MOON)
6  AMERICATHEGREAT         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 3.00 22% 3.60    
  (by CURLIN out of AMERICA by A.P. INDY)
7  MI AMIGA         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
  (by YAUPON out of IS THAT A THING by WILL TAKE CHARGE)
8  NANZIG Apr16         (ennis john)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of COUNT TO ELEVEN by GRAND SLAM)
 
CD-3   05/15/2025 3300ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUCY MCGEE Jul22 Jun26       (lovell mich)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 30.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TIZANILLUSION by TIZWAY)
2  CLAIRE'S RUN         (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 118 5.00 10% 9.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of BALLYKISS by STREET BOSS)
3  SHE WANTS WAR         (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 ★    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of PLEDGE PIN by CHATAIN)
4  BOUJEE BEACH Jan26 Nov10 Oct12 Aug31   (miller pe)TORRES A 118 10.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of DYNA'S DESTINY by DYNAFORMER)
5  DEBT FREE Apr07 Mar01       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BREAK EVEN by COUNTRY DAY)
6  PARTY PAULINE         (hartman chris)MACHADO LUAN 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of LADY PAULINE by MUNNINGS)
7  RUNNING GAME         (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by I AM THE GAME out of RUNABOUT by OXBOW)
8  GREY MATTER         (baltas richard)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
  (by CLASSIC EMPIRE out of NOBLE GREY by FORESTRY)
9  DIVINE WIND         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of EAST MOON by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
10  SYCAMORE SHOALS Mar23 Feb27 Jan20 Dec21 Nov30 (walsh p)CURTIS BEN 118 3.50 63% 0.60    
  (by STREET SENSE out of SPACY TRACY by AWESOME AGAIN)
11  FORBIDDEN FRIEND Apr07         (oliver victo)TORRES A 118 30.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of TABOO by FORESTRY)
12  SOMETHING STRONGER Dec26 Nov10       (stall m)GRAHAM J 118 6.00    
  (by JUSTIFY out of LORA PADORA by FRANKEL)
SCR  MAERDAMA Mar15 Feb05 Jun11 Mar16   (joseph saffie )ORTIZ L 124 3.50    
  (by GIRVIN out of ROSE OF CAIRO by CAIRO PRINCE)
SCR  STAGE PRESENCE Aug31 Jun28 May25     (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 124 12.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of MARQUEE by GOLD REGENT)
SCR  SPINNING GLORY Apr06 Mar22 Mar06     (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 4.00    
  (by SPUN TO RUN out of JADED GLORY by SMART STRIKE)
SCR  MACLEAN'S LULLABY May11 Apr16 Mar06 Feb08 Jan23 (matejka )RODRIGUEZ A 118 6.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of JOYFUL HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
 
CD-4   05/15/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INTERMITTENT FAST Dec21 Nov29 Mar20 Nov08 Oct11 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 123 1.80 30% 2.40    
2  I AM BEAUTIFUL Apr12 Feb17 Aug19     (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 123 6.00    
3  SWEET SCORECARD Apr16 Feb22 Dec27 Nov28   (eggleston tim)ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
4  TENNESSEEHONEYBEE Apr11 Mar12 Feb23 Dec26 Nov24 (sweezey kent)CURTIS BEN 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
5  NO WHAT IFS Apr25 Mar01 Jan20 Nov28 Nov03 (forster gr)HERNANDEZ J 123 8.00 16% 5.20    
6  CAROLINA CANDY Apr10 Feb27 Jul06 Jun20 Jun02 (ennis john)MACHADO LUAN 123 6.00    
7  UP THE CREEK Apr18 Mar07 Dec21 Nov21 Nov03 (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 123 3.00 21% 3.90    
 
CD-5   05/15/2025 5940ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  THRACIAN Mar27 Feb14 Jan15 Dec13 Nov13 (fletcher kevin)SERPA ANGEL 118 30.00    
2  WINEGOLD Mar05 Feb02 Jan17 Dec27   (mcpeek ke)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  MIDNIGHT SURVIVOR Apr23 Apr06 Mar08     (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50    
4  BAOBAB Apr06 Feb23 Dec07     (sweezey kent)CURTIS BEN 118 4.00 40% 1.50    
5  ROCKET NIGHT Apr04 Mar02 Jan23 Dec22 Dec06 (jacobson )TORRES A 125 6.00 ★    
6  STRATEGIST Apr26 Dec01 Oct12 Sep14 Aug24 (romero gregor)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
7  PAVED IN GOLD Apr30 Apr06 Mar12 Feb17 Apr13 (forster grant )ORTIZ L 125 3.00 33% 2.00    
8  KEVIN'S STRIKE Feb20 Jan17 Dec15 Nov20 Sep27 (amoss thomas)MONCADA IRVING 113 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  GHOST PRINCE Apr29 Sep26 Sep12 Aug04 Jul11 (quartarolo ant)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 30.00    
10  WINNING SONG Apr30 Apr18 Feb01 Aug26   (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
 
CD-6   05/15/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($71K) 4UP M/F PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KLIMT'S MUSE Apr24 Mar12 Feb22 Feb05 Nov20 (humphries thom)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
2  EAST SHORE Mar12 Dec26 Dec01 Oct23 Sep26 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
3  STORY HOUR Apr30 Feb24 Feb02 Dec06 Apr11 (medina ro)BEALMEAR C 113 12.00    
4  PHAROAH'S HEART Mar29 Mar09 Feb24 Feb01 Jan03 (jacobson dav)MONCADA IRVING 113 2.50 39% 1.60    
5  BETTE DAVIS Apr10 Feb15 Jan23 Dec26 Nov14 (tomlinson m)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  LIUZZA Feb02 Jan12 Oct26 Sep19 Jul29 (calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 8.00 9% 10.50    
7  PENS STREET Apr24 Mar14 Sep29 Sep19 Aug25 (hartman chris)CURTIS BEN 118 3.00 19% 4.20    
8  CORA'S LEGACY Apr04 Mar06 Feb13 Jan17 Dec19 (wilson shane)SAEZ LUIS 118 20.00    
9  TIFFANY TWIST Apr25 Mar14 Feb23 Jan31 Jan18 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 9% 10.70    
 
CD-7   05/15/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SATIN BLUE Apr16 Nov10 Oct20 Sep01 Jul27 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 123 5.00    
2  LAURIE'S SECRET Apr26 Feb23 Jan18 Dec15 Oct28 (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 123 30.00    
3  ROJO RITA Mar16 Feb01 Nov15     (joseph sa)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 4.00 47% 1.10    
4  ELEGANT Apr16 Jun13 May11 Mar24 Mar04 (brisset rodolphe)SAEZ LUIS 123 5.00    
5  PROMISEMEANEMPIRE Jun29 May03 Mar29 Feb03 Nov26 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  PERFECT FIGURE Nov02 Sep20 Jul31     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.50 16% 5.20    
7  STELLAR ASSET Mar22 Feb16 Dec24 Sep29 Jun14 (hamm timothy)TORRES A 120 10.00    
8  ATOMIC CITY Apr12 Nov30 Oct25 Sep14 Aug04 (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 118 15.00    
9  UNHIDDEN GEM (IRE) Apr16 Oct20 Sep11 Aug22   (stall albert )MORALES EDGAR 123 15.00    
10  BLACKFOOT DAISY Dec21 Nov06 Aug22 Dec14   (ward wesle)CORRALES GERARDO 123 4.50 13% 6.50    
11  COTILLARD Apr16 Nov30 Nov07 Oct11 Sep08 (seglin e)RIQUELME J 118 30.00    
12  PONDERING Mar16 Feb17 Jan20 Oct05 Aug31 (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BONNE FILLE May10 Nov07 Oct18 Sep08 Jul11 (oliver victori)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 20.00    
SCR  MYIYLA Mar06 Jun09 Mar22 Mar03   (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 123 15.00    
SCR  LA FORET Apr16 Mar08 Feb06 Nov22 Oct16 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 123 15.00    
SCR  OBSTREPEROUS Apr20 Mar14 Feb02 Jan04 Dec08 (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 123 6.00    
 
CD-8   05/15/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHADOW COAST Apr26 Mar12 Feb15 Jan18 Dec26 (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00    
SCR  WEEKEND REVEILLE Apr24 Dec19       (gallaghe)RODRIGUEZ A 118 30.00    
3  DELTA TAU CHI Jun09 May13       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.50 43% 1.30    
4  LOST IN THE SAUCE Feb13         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  SHOW MASTER Aug01 Jun30       (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
6  AMBRIDGE Jan10 Dec22 Nov28 Nov07 Oct11 (forster gra)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 15.00    
7  NASH POTATOES Apr12 Dec14       (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
SCR  HELM PLACE Apr11 Feb15       (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 8.00    
9  GALLO DE FUEGO Jan24 Nov20 Nov09 Oct05 Sep05 (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
10  NYQUIST FREQUENCY Apr12 Mar02 Dec07 Oct31 Oct05 (blair jordan)TORRES A 124 5.00 20% 3.90    
11  ELECTIONEERING         (devaux ch)TORRES A 118 15.00    
12  TAPAKENA Apr26 Mar23 Apr06 Mar02 Jan27 (lynch brian )MONCADA IRVING 119 3.50 13% 6.80    
13  MO JACKSON Aug10         (tomlinson m)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 10.00    
SCR  PERSONAL JET Apr19 Mar29 Feb08 Jan18   (pomier ch)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.