Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Belterra Park
Wednesday - September 27, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
BTP-1   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (6/3)-(2/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(2/6/5)-(4/6/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
BTP-2   WIN (2/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/5)-(2/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6/5)-(2/6/5)-(2/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (2/6/5)-(4/6/2)-(7/4/1) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
BTP-3   WIN (4/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/2)-(4/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/2)-(4/6/2)-(4/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (4/6/2)-(7/4/1)-(3/8/12/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
BTP-4   WIN (7/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (7/4/1)-(7/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (7/4/1)-(7/4/1)-(7/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (7/4/1)-(3/8/12/4)-(4/5/6) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
BTP-5   WIN (3/8/12/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/12/4)-(3/8/12/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/12/4)-(3/8/12/4)-(3/8/12/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/8/12/4)-(4/5/6)-(2/5/4/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
BTP-6   WIN (4/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/6)-(4/5/6)-(4/5/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (4/5/6)-(2/5/4/3)-(12/11/3) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
BTP-7   WIN (2/5/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/4/3)-(2/5/4/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/4/3)-(2/5/4/3)-(2/5/4/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/4/3)-(12/11/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
BTP-8   WIN (12/11/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (12/11/3)-(12/11/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (12/11/3)-(12/11/3)-(12/11/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
BTP-1   09/27/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($9.1K) 3UP ALL PT-12:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEVER SORRY Sep09 Jul01 Jun15 May19   (hernandez javie)REYES FRANK 121 10.00    
SCR  MUNGER Jul11 Mar10 Sep28 Sep05 May01 (lopez a)COLON H 124 12.00    
3  RAMBLIN CHROME Jul22 Jul01 Jun23 Jun07 May20 (perez jua)CORREA L 121 8.00 29% 2.50    
SCR  MY WROTE Aug28 Aug21 Aug08 Mar29 Oct02 (lopez a)REYES R 124 20.00    
SCR  MIGHTY RIOT Aug16 Jan26 Jan05 Oct26 Oct03 (murphy cono)PETERSON FERRIN 124 10.00    
6  LAST CHANCE DANCE Sep05 Aug09 Jul20 Jun08   (oliver victoria)MOJICA JR 118 3.50 39% 1.50    
SCR  BIG BOULDER Sep02 Jul03 Jun04 May19   (danner kelsey)JIMENEZ ALBIN 124 2.50    
SCR  BRANDON'S SMILE Aug05 Jul15 Jun16 Mar29 Dec18 (ramos rafael)PANAIJO JORGE 121 4.00    
9  ALPHA LEA Aug12 Jul16 Jul01 Jun21 Jun03 (howard anne)MCKEE J 121 5.00    
10  TROY BOY Sep20 Sep09 Aug16 Aug03 Jun23 (coomer philip)CANUTO THIAGO 124 15.00    
 
BTP-2   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($23.7K) 2 F PT-12:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MS. DEBBIE ALAN Sep05         (waltz brian)JIMENEZ ALBIN 121 3.50    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of MRS. DEBBIE M by WAR CHANT)
2  SPOOKY LITTLE GIRL Aug30         (cowans william)COLON H 121 2.00 34% 1.90    
  (by EXAGGERATOR out of EYE'LL BE FINE by MONTBROOK)
3  LATE BLOOMBOPPER Sep08         (barker scott)MARCANO Y 116 5.00    
  (by INDY WIND out of OCTOBER SONG by BERNSTEIN)
4  SHAMANS IMAGE Sep13         (barker scot)JIMENEZ J 121 4.50    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of LADY MONAVI by MONDAVI)
5  OPIE'S GIRL         (smith larry)OUZTS W 121 6.00 18% 4.50    
  (by WAR CORRESPONDENT out of UNDER LOCK AND KEY by BOLD WARRIOR)
6  PRINCESS ELLIE         (greenhill jef)LEBRON VICTOR 121 4.00 19% 4.10    
  (by WILDCAT RED out of RITZY ROSE by HAT TRICK)
 
BTP-3   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMPETITIVE FIRE Sep20 Aug29 Aug10 Jul26 Jun24 (tomlinson e)BUSH V 121 5.00    
2  WARIS Jul08 Jun21 May25 May04 Mar24 (beck rowena)ACHARD ALEX 121 3.00 19% 4.40    
3  SELENA SING Aug02 Jun28 Dec03 Nov23 Nov01 (west w)LEBRON VICTOR 121 8.00    
4  ARKLAHOMA SOUL Aug10 Jul19 Jun26 Jun04 Jan14 (mcvickers lama)REYES R 118 2.00 36% 1.80    
5  SPICY SOMMELIER Aug29 Dec10 Nov25 Nov07 Sep17 (esquivel )CORREA L 121 4.50    
6  ZUPITA Aug22 Aug10 Jul03 May29 May17 (esquivel jesu)PANAIJO JORGE 118 3.50 22% 3.50    
 
BTP-4   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KOBE BEACH Sep06 Jul27 Jul14 Jun03 May18 (rodriquez r)JIMENEZ J 122 8.00 6% 14.80    
2  HECTOR B Sep15 Sep06 Aug19 Aug03 Jul22 (ramos rafael)PANAIJO JORGE 122 5.00    
3  FROOME (IRE) Sep02 Aug19 Aug12 Aug02 Jul13 (adams nancy )MARCANO Y 117 4.00    
4  GREENSFELDER Sep15 Aug31 Aug12 Aug03 Jul19 (ramos franc)LAGUNES GABRIEL 122 4.50 22% 3.50    
5  PASION AZTECA Sep06 Aug09 Jul27 Jul13 Jun24 (morelos mateo)CANUTO THIAGO 122 8.00    
6  SHERLOCKED Sep09 Feb22 Feb09 Jan26 Jan05 (sturgeon c)MCKEE J 122 3.50    
7  HESTON May26 May04 Mar30 Mar04 Jan20 (engler jeff)JIMENEZ ALBIN 122 2.50 45% 1.20    
 
BTP-5   09/27/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($16K) Purse ($17.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  HEBRIDES Aug05 Jul09 May29 Mar15   (reed r)MCKEE J 117 3.50    
SCR  YARBOROUGH Sep06 Aug16 Oct30 Sep10 Aug19 (reed r)MCKEE J 120 3.50    
SCR  MISS BRIGHTSIDE Sep01 Jul12 Jun17 May29 May16 (estvanko)MARTINEZ LUIS 120 8.00    
3  MISS GOODBAR Sep07 Aug15 Jul26 Jul06 Jun06 (davis joseph )CANUTO THIAGO 117 8.00 41% 1.50    
4  HONEYBELL Sep02 Aug22 Aug10 Jul26 Jul08 (donjuan sergi)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 117 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  LADY JENNEVIERE Sep06 Aug23 Aug12 Mar23 Feb15 (pitts c)BUSH V 120 15.00    
SCR  AMANDA'S CHALLENGE Aug16 Jul08 Feb02 Jan08   (molloy thomas)HEARD TYLER 117 12.00    
7  WILDCAT DREAM Aug31 Jul26 Jul06 Jun15 May31 (salcedo ramon)REYES FRANK 120 15.00    
8  PENUMBRAS MAKER Aug24 Jul16 Jun29 Jun08 May18 (gutierrez f)LAGUNES GABRIEL 117 4.50 25% 3.10    
SCR  WRITTENINTHESTARS Sep01 May27 Apr27 Mar26 Mar05 (o'dwyer jeremiah)OUZTS W 119 10.00    
10  QUARIA BRAVA Sep01 Jul05 Jun10 May09 Mar31 (lobo h)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 6.00    
11  BACKYARD HEN Aug05 Jul08 Jun10 Mar24 Aug18 (shifflet)STRANDBERG MALLORY 120 30.00    
12  GOSHEN Aug16 Aug02 Jul12 Jun15 Jun06 (esquivel )CORREA L 117 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MANDY GREEN Sep19 Aug31 Jul25 Jul05 Apr23 (bernardini jay )LEON A 120 15.00    
SCR  STELLARATOR Sep06 Aug17 Jul04 May21 Mar03 (bernardini jay )LEON A 120 20.00    
SCR  ULTIMATE MISSION Aug18 Jul11 Dec28 Oct17 Sep22 (west w)LEBRON VICTOR 120 2.50    
 
BTP-6   09/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUNNETH OVER Sep15 Aug19 Jun12     (bates l)BUSH V 121 5.00    
2  PARTY NEVER ENDS Sep15 Aug22 Aug05 Jun30 Jun13 (hernandez r)PETERSON FERRIN 121 2.50    
3  BEAUTYATITSBEST Sep12 Aug26       (clark lee)HESS SARA 119 4.50    
4  GRANNY ANN         (clark robert )CANUTO THIAGO 121 10.00 26% 2.90    
5  KEENE ON JENNY Sep08 Apr19 Mar18 Mar01 Jan27 (torres conce)MARCANO Y 119 3.50 26% 2.90    
6  NOW         (guida ant)CORREA L 124 10.00 14% 6.30    
7  SOUTHERN MESA Aug29 Aug05 Jul21 Sep14   (royal madelyn)MURGIA A 121 8.00    
 
BTP-7   09/27/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($13.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HANDSOFFTHEGOODS Aug17 Aug10 Jun07     (watkins m)REYES FRANK 119 12.00    
2  COLOR FIELD Sep13 Sep01 Jul14 Jun16 May14 (bahena isma)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 2.50 35% 1.90    
3  ALL ABOUT CROGE Sep13 Sep01 Aug04 Jul14 Jun30 (hernandez ja)MARCANO Y 114 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  PAST IMPERATIVE Aug19 Jul19 Jul01 Jun08 May12 (sandy s)MCKEE J 122 5.00 5% 18.90    
5  SMART DRESSER Aug30 Aug15 Jul20 Jun30 Jun15 (edwards w)CORREA L 121 3.50 28% 2.50    
6  OUTSLEWTHEM Sep16 Sep06 Aug17 Jul01 Jun09 (smith larry)OUZTS W 121 8.00    
7  SWELTER Sep09 Apr26 Apr04 Feb09 Dec30 (hamm timothy)LEBRON VICTOR 119 4.50    
8  CHEESEBURGER         (chain pearl)BUSH V 122 20.00    
 
BTP-8   09/27/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($12.5K) Purse ($17.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  INDOCUMENTADO Sep15 Aug23 Aug01 Jul15 Jun21 (jurado luis)MOJICA JR 122 5.00    
SCR  AQUACAT Aug09 Jul05 Jun07 May21 Jan11 (rodriguez hugo)COLON H 120 12.00    
3  DRAFT CAPITAL Sep15 Aug23 Aug12 Jul27 Feb10 (morelos mateo)CANUTO THIAGO 120 15.00 7% 12.60    
4  YONO Sep10 Aug10 Jul22 May12 Apr20 (hiles a)MCKEE J 120 2.00    
5  FAST FALL Sep10 Aug16 Jul27 Jul14 Jun30 (hernandez javi)LEZCANO ABEL 116 6.00    
SCR  HARD COUNT Sep03 Jul31 Jul05 Jun07 May16 (bernardini jay )LEON A 120 4.50    
SCR  DRIFTWOOD Sep02 Aug11 Jul27 Jun09 May17 (kordenbrock)LAGUNES GABRIEL 120 10.00    
SCR  VIOLIN MAKER Sep01 Aug17 Jul31 Jul02 May28 (hernandez d)MIRANDA ROGELIO 120 8.00    
9  GOLDEN REIGN Aug29 Aug10 Jun10 May23 May03 (toye lin)LEBRON VICTOR 118 12.00    
SCR  EDEN PARADISE Aug23 Aug15 Jul27 Jul16 Jun23 (james gerald)REYES R 120 12.00    
11  DIAL HIM UP Sep13 Aug05 Feb12 Jan29 Jan11 (mendieta ale)MARCANO Y 115 20.00 20% 4.10    
12  P K WOOD Sep02 Aug05 Jul14 Jun23 Jun07 (esquivel )CORREA L 120 3.50 49% 1.00    
SCR  BAKENEKO Aug30 Jul16 Jun25 Jun11 May21 (rodriguez hugo)REYES FRANK 120 10.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.