Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - September 21, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (6/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/3)-(6/5/3/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/5/3)-(6/5/3/2)-(6/5/3/2) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/5/3)-(6/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/5/3)-(6/3)-(2/6/12) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/3)-(6/7/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3)-(6/7/2/3)-(6/7/2/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (6/3)-(2/6/12) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/3)-(2/6/12)-(5/2/6/11) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/6/12) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/12)-(2/7/11/6/12) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/12)-(2/7/11/6/12)-(2/7/11/6/12) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (2/6/12)-(5/2/6/11) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/6/12)-(5/2/6/11)-(6/5/2/7) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-4   WIN (5/2/6/11) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/2/6/11)-(5/2/10/6/11/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/2/6/11)-(5/2/10/6/11/12)-(5/2/10/6/11/12) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
    DD (5/2/6/11)-(6/5/2/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/2/6/11)-(6/5/2/7)-(1/3/10/9/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-5   WIN (6/5/2/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/5/2/7)-(6/5/2/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/5/2/7)-(6/5/2/7)-(6/5/2/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/5/2/7)-(1/3/10/9/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (6/5/2/7)-(1/3/10/9/2)-(4/8/5/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (1/3/10/9/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/3/10/9/2)-(1/3/10/9/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/3/10/9/2)-(1/3/10/9/2)-(1/3/10/9/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/3/10/9/2)-(4/8/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3/10/9/2)-(4/8/5/2)-(5/7/1) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-7   WIN (4/8/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/5/2)-(4/8/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/8/5/2)-(4/8/5/2)-(4/8/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/8/5/2)-(5/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/8/5/2)-(5/7/1)-(7/4/1/9) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-8   WIN (5/7/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/1)-(5/7/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/1)-(5/7/1)-(5/7/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/7/1)-(7/4/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CD-9   WIN (7/4/1/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/1/9)-(7/4/1/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/4/1/9)-(7/4/1/9)-(7/4/1/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/21/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($16K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STARLIT SOFI Aug17 Jul21 Jun13 May17 Apr29 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 121 5.00    
2  YES TO CHAMPAGNE Apr29 Mar28 Dec20 Nov27 Nov09 (shorte)GUTIERREZ RAMOS 114 6.00 ★    
3  MY LITTLE WILDCAT Sep06 Aug16 Aug02 Apr18 Mar28 (mendieta al)NUNEZ Y 118 5.00 19% 4.20    
4  BRIDGIE BOP Aug09 Jun25       (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 3.50    
5  CATCHING HEAT Jul21 Apr27 Mar07 Nov29 Nov21 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 3.00 21% 3.80    
6  ROCIO Sep10 Aug29 Aug07 Jul16 May04 (munoz car)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 21% 3.70    
7  BISA Aug16 Jul10 May27 May05 Dec11 (caramori eduar)MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00    
 
CD-2   09/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($40K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BOLT AT MIDNIGHT Jun21 May01 Mar29 Feb24 Dec22 (hartman chris)ORTIZ L 121 4.00    
2  OUTLIER Jun11 May16 Apr24 Dec27 Nov28 (hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 121 5.00 ★    
3  HOCUS (GB) Jul11 May18 Jun21 May10 Apr07 (thompson mich)CANNON DECLAN 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  FURIOUS ANGER Aug30 Jul20 Jun25 Jun12 May23 (romans dale)LANERIE J 121 2.50    
5  LUNAR MODULE Aug23 Jun27 May11 Mar09 Feb01 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50    
6  PLAY THE TRUMPET Jun15 Jun04 Jan13 Dec15 Sep25 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 36% 1.80    
7  MACRON Aug09 Jul04 Jun15 May18 Apr24 (ward dan)CEDILLO ABEL 121 6.00 ★    
 
CD-3   09/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  C. P. A. JIM Aug29 Jul25       (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 15.00    
2  ELECTION NIGHT Aug17         (hartman chris)ORTIZ L 119 3.50 65% 0.50    
3  I FORGOT TO ASK         (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 12.00    
4  DR FENN Jul19 Jun19       (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
5  SPARKLING SPEED Aug22 Aug04       (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 15.00    
6  MAXIMUS C         (gonzalez agust)ROMAN A 119 30.00 5% 19.00    
7  JUST LIKE MAX         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 5.00 ★    
8  BARSTOOL Sep13 Aug22 Aug01 Jul13 Jun19 (vasquez )RODRIGUEZ A 119 4.00    
9  TULLY Aug22         (hancock j)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
10  VENENO FUTURO Sep09 Aug16 Jul30     (gonzal)GUTIERREZ RAMOS 112 12.00    
11  SGT. GARCIA Aug27 Jul25       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 ★    
12  TWO SEVEN O         (beckman whitwor)SAEZ LUIS 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  STATE CONCEAL Sep03 Aug23 Aug02 Jul10   (munoz carlos)TREJOS JOSEPH 119 3.00    
SCR  SECRETO UNO Sep06 Jul25       (simms mark )CONCEPCION AXEL 119 20.00    
 
CD-4   09/21/2025 5610ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOUTHERN SOUL Aug11         (cowans willia)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by AUTHENTIC out of FLORIDA FABULOUS by HIGH COTTON)
2  LIKE WATER Aug30         (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 119 3.50 19% 4.20    
  (by FROSTED out of SUGAR SWEET by MR. GREELEY)
SCR  GOOD WILLIE         (casse nor)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of STONE LEGACY by BIRDSTONE)
SCR  SWERVE Aug09 Jul18       (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 20.00    
  (by LIL E. TEE out of HAWAIIAN QUERY by HAWAII)
5  THESHERIFFISNEAR Aug28         (mott william)TORRES A 119 4.50 47% 1.20    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of MADDIE P by TRAPPE SHOT)
6  MR. VAGGIO Aug10 Jul04       (hancock j)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 18.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of SUNSET PROMISE by BROKEN VOW)
7  KHETAM Aug31 Jul13       (mckeever andrew)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
  (by ESSENTIAL QUALITY out of ELSAABIQAAT by INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE))
8  PRINCE OF LIGHT Aug10 Jun28       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of LUZMIMI PRINCESS by MALIBU MOON)
9  ROYAL CAUSEWAY Aug28         (stewart dall)GEROUX FLORENT 119 10.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BAHAMA HALO by MORE THAN READY)
10  VERY CONNECTED Aug31 Aug09       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 ★    
  (by CONNECT out of C J'S GAL by AWESOME AGAIN)
11  TAILORED Aug28         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by THORN SONG out of NOT TO DOUBT by MOSCOW BALLET (IRE))
12  HIGH GO         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 ★    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of SOUTHERN DYNAMO by DYNAFORMER)
SCR  HIGH HONORS Sep07 Aug01       (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
  (by GRAUSTARK out of DRACKEN by MILLENNIUM ALLSTAR)
14  JAYDEEVEE         (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 119 15.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of RUBY NOTION by GREAT NOTION)
SCR  DURABLE Aug27 Jul21 Jul04     (torres marceli)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 20.00    
  (by BEST JEST out of CARESSABLE by SIR NASKRA)
 
CD-5   09/21/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($20K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOD OF WINE Sep04 Aug14 Jul31 Jul12 Jun20 (cristel mar)CONCEPCION AXEL 122 12.00    
2  WHERE'S RANDY Jul14 Jun20 May03 Apr06 Mar22 (morse l)MORALES EDGAR 122 3.50 12% 7.50    
3  BECK'S SPIRIT Aug01 Jun27 Jun08 May17 Apr13 (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
4  EXPLOSIVELY Aug18 Jul14 Jun15 May26 Apr30 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00    
5  RAISING KANE Aug13 Jul26 Jul01 Jun15 Jun01 (desormeaux ke)LANERIE J 118 4.00 14% 6.00    
6  KING PEANUT Aug04 Jun20 May02 Apr18 Mar30 (bogle fergus)ORTIZ L 122 2.50 34% 1.90    
7  RIGHT ON RIGHT ON Aug07 Jul04 Jun11 May06 Apr22 (davis j)DE CRUZ 118 15.00 9% 10.70    
8  EL CORDOBES (IRE) Aug30 Aug09 Jul26 Jul09 Jun17 (calleja gust)CALLEJA ANDRES 120 12.00    
 
CD-6   09/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARD TO GET Aug09 May30       (foley greg)ORTIZ JR 124 4.00 42% 1.40    
2  PEOPLE GET READY Aug08 Jun26 Jun07 Apr18 Mar28 (michael brian)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  POINTSETMATCH Aug30 Aug08 Apr25 Mar23 Mar06 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 121 3.50 24% 3.20    
4  POUR A LITTLE MORE Aug16 Jun25 Jun04 Apr29 Dec12 (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00    
5  BONITA VIDA Jan18         (foster eric)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 15.00    
6  AHAMO Aug09 Jul14 Apr18 Feb23 Jan10 (calhoun willia)MACHADO LUAN 121 8.00    
7  WELL AWARE Aug23 Apr29 Mar26 Aug04 Jun24 (hartman ch)ASMUSSEN J 121 5.00    
8  SHE'S ALL ELLIE Jun20 Jun08 Aug01     (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 124 20.00    
9  ADALENE Sep10 Aug08 May19 Mar07 Feb21 (salas mar)LEPAROUX R 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  REST OF THE WORLD Jul21 Jul04 Jun15 Oct25 Sep24 (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 121 4.50 7% 12.90    
11  CLOUD NUMBER NINE         (williamso)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00    
 
CD-7   09/21/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($69K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ARTHUR JR Aug25 Jul28 Jun26 May15 Apr25 (leitch daniel)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00    
2  MASHBURN Dec14         (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
3  WHITE WHALE Aug17 Jun06 Apr25 Mar09 Jan11 (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 121 5.00    
4  VALIANT HUMOR Aug23 Jul06 Jun07 May18 Apr12 (radosevich she)MACHADO LUAN 121 3.50 45% 1.20    
5  THE CHALK Aug17 Aug01 Jun20 Nov17 Oct26 (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  GALANTINI Sep07 Aug01 Jul05 Dec14 Nov01 (foster eric)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00    
7  GAME AND SMART         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00    
8  EVAN ON EARTH Aug01 Jun27 May18 Nov22 Nov08 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 2.50 31% 2.20    
SCR  JUST CALL RIP         (reed eri)RODRIGUEZ A 121 30.00    
10  TAP ME A SONG Aug22 Aug01 Jun06 May10 Apr06 (santamaria)ASMUSSEN J 121 20.00    
 
CD-8   09/21/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INTO CHAMPAGNE May26 Apr13 Mar08 May03 Mar30 (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HIGH FASHION KATE Jun05 May01 Apr10 Mar15 Feb13 (salas mar)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 15.00    
3  SAM'S TREASURE Jun05 Apr25 Aug29 Jul19 Jun07 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50    
SCR  MARMALADE SKYE Sep11 May24 Apr30 Mar20 Feb24 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 121 2.00    
5  HILLERITO Aug03 Apr27 Sep07 Jul17 May19 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 2.50 51% 1.00    
6  PRINCESS MADISON Aug22 Jul23 Jul06 Sep15 Aug23 (bauer a)ORTIZ L 121 3.50    
7  TRIPOLINA Aug03 Jun15 May30 Apr26 Mar28 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 9% 9.90    
 
CD-9   09/21/2025 3630ft DIRT RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAKAN Mar29 Mar01 Jan25 Dec21 Nov29 (torres marceli)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  PHAROAH'S DYNASTY Aug30 Oct06 Sep01 Jun23   (asmussen stev)ORTIZ JR 118 6.00    
3  MI DINERO Aug29 Aug08 Jul11 May23 Apr16 (munoz car)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00    
4  ROWDY RIOT Apr18 Mar07 Jan23 Dec21 Oct31 (morse l)MORALES EDGAR 121 5.00 24% 3.20    
5  GLACIAL POWER Dec07 Nov08 Oct11 Sep11 Aug05 (camejo jose)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 6.00    
6  OH PLEASE Aug22 Jul26 Jul10 Jun14 May26 (elliott michel)ROMAN A 118 20.00    
7  GARDINER Aug24 Jul23 Jun12 May18 Nov22 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 25% 3.00    
SCR  THIS TIME Aug27 Aug04 Jul07 Jun06 May03 (maker micha)PETERSON FERRIN 121 15.00    
9  MIRACLE WORKER Aug18 Jul14 May29 Mar21 Feb16 (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
10  HARD TO SAY Aug24 Jun17 Apr16 Feb08 Jan04 (medina rober)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 20.00    
SCR  OUR STARRY NIGHT Aug30 Aug14 Jun15 May08   (bauer a)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.50    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.