Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 08, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (5/7/2/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/7/2/3)-(5/7/2/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/7/2/3)-(5/7/2/3)-(5/7/2/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/7/2/3)-(8/10/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/7/2/3)-(8/10/2/4)-(2/4/1/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-2   WIN (8/10/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/10/2/4)-(8/10/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/10/2/4)-(8/10/2/4)-(8/10/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/10/2/4)-(2/4/1/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/10/2/4)-(2/4/1/6)-(2/4/6/5/3) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/4/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/4/1/6)-(2/4/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/4/1/6)-(2/4/1/6)-(2/4/1/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/4/1/6)-(2/4/6/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/4/1/6)-(2/4/6/5/3)-(3/9/1/6/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-4   WIN (2/4/6/5/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/4/6/5/3)-(2/4/6/5/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/4/6/5/3)-(2/4/6/5/3)-(2/4/6/5/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/4/6/5/3)-(3/9/1/6/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/4/6/5/3)-(3/9/1/6/7)-(7/6/8/10) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-5   WIN (3/9/1/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/9/1/6/7)-(3/9/1/6/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/9/1/6/7)-(3/9/1/6/7)-(3/9/1/6/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/9/1/6/7)-(7/6/8/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/9/1/6/7)-(7/6/8/10)-(1/5/2/7/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-6   WIN (7/6/8/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/6/8/10)-(7/6/8/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/6/8/10)-(7/6/8/10)-(7/6/8/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/6/8/10)-(1/5/2/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/6/8/10)-(1/5/2/7/6)-(6/7/12/11/3) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (1/5/2/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/5/2/7/6)-(1/5/2/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/5/2/7/6)-(1/5/2/7/6)-(1/5/2/7/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/5/2/7/6)-(6/7/12/11/3) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/7/12/11/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/7/12/11/3)-(6/7/12/11/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/7/12/11/3)-(6/7/12/11/3)-(6/7/12/11/3) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/08/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ARGAN Mar14 Jan15 Dec13 Dec06 Nov23 (newton troy)CANNON DECLAN 125 10.00    
2  DIFFERENTLY Jan26 Dec15 Dec05 Oct28 Sep26 (combs bentley)GARCIA MARTIN 125 10.00 6% 14.80    
3  JACKIE'S LOVE Aug21 May09 Apr11 Feb01 Dec21 (butcher jame)CALLEJA ANDRES 125 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  WITS AND WAGERS Dec27 Oct23 Sep26 Jul22 Jun15 (oliver vic)CORRALES GERARDO 125 3.00    
5  SWEET CHABLIS Apr06 Mar12 Feb13 Jan29 Jan16 (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 125 2.00 46% 1.20    
6  MISS PEABODY Mar29 Jan01 Nov09 Oct17 Sep19 (newton troy)MORALES EDGAR 125 4.00    
7  STORM BAY Mar28 Feb27 Feb13 Jan15 Dec14 (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 125 5.00 22% 3.50    
8  MIDNIGHT BLAZE Apr17 Mar04 Feb08 Jan16 Dec06 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
 
CD-2   05/08/2025 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  NONSTOP VINO         (ennis jo)RODRIGUEZ A 119 12.00    
  (by SPUN TO RUN out of CLAUDETTE NONSTOP by THE FACTOR)
2  CHEEKWOOD         (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of MADERA DANCER by RAHY)
3  SHE'S MAD         (gorostieta ci)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 119 12.00    
  (by LEOFRIC out of KORITSI by ATREIDES)
4  ENGAGEMENT         (mccutchen jas)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of FIANCEE by WILL TAKE CHARGE)
5  WOODALL PASS Apr30         (pomier chasey)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by PASS THE BUCK out of WOODALL LANE by BROKEN VOW)
6  CAROOM'S CROUPIER         (pomier chase)GEROUX FLORENT 119 15.00    
  (by HAMAZING DESTINY out of PADDLE OUT by VALID EXPECTATIONS)
7  SOUNDSMISCHIEVOUS         (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of RI N GINGER by LOOKIN AT LUCKY)
8  GORRONO RANCH Apr11         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 1.60 40% 1.50    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of AMERIEL by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
SCR  OJOS LOCOS         (gorostieta cirilo)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of FLAWLESS KID by LEMON DROP KID)
10  CHAMBOURCIN Apr06         (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 119 3.50 37% 1.70    
  (by COPPER BULLET out of COAL AND ICE by TAPIT)
 
CD-3   05/08/2025 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIXTYSEVEN MUSTANG Mar29 Feb23 Jan18     (anderson doug )CEDILLO ABEL 118 3.50 21% 3.70    
  (by VEKOMA out of FIRE OF FREEDOM by STREET CRY (IRE))
2  LA HOULIGAN Apr19 Feb14 Jan25 Dec07 Oct27 (compton g)TORRES A 118 2.00 30% 2.30    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of SMART DANCER by MARSHUA'S DANCER)
3  PYROMANIA Apr17 Jul18       (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of LONDON MIST by AFLEET ALEX)
4  SOLE LUTE Mar28 Feb14 Jan27     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 22% 3.60    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of SOLE MISS by COLONEL JOHN)
5  LEBOMBO Mar28 Mar07 Feb01 Dec04 Nov10 (medina robert)VELAZQUEZ R 126 4.00    
  (by CUPID out of DARING GREATLY by EVEN THE SCORE)
6  START MO UP Oct05 Sep07       (lejzerowic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of JAGGERMAMA by HIGH COTTON)
7  FREE SPIN Apr17         (mott riley)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of KATHERINE'SKADENCE by MR. GREELEY)
 
CD-4   05/08/2025 3300ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUR STARRY NIGHT         (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 118 8.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of BERNCREDIT by BERNSTEIN)
2  RESTORE (FR) Mar19 Feb13 Dec19 Oct19 Aug31 (stewart d)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 2.50 30% 2.30    
  (by UNCLE MO out of MOLLY CORBIN by WAR FRONT)
3  BLAST FURNACE Apr30 Mar30 Aug19 May13 Apr27 (brion keri)SAEZ LUIS 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by THE FACTOR out of ALIQUIPPA by NATIVE ALLIANCE)
4  GUY SMILEY Feb15 Jan16       (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 118 3.00 22% 3.50    
  (by HOOTENANNY out of DIFFERENT DREAMS by SEA THE STARS (IRE))
5  STORMTOWN Feb16         (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 124 12.00 10% 9.10    
  (by MO TOWN out of DANCIN IN A STORM by STORMY ATLANTIC)
6  MODUS BESTIA Apr12 Mar14 Jan25     (baltas richard)ACHARD ALEX 118 3.50 13% 6.60    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of MAKE AMENDS by MALIBU MOON)
7  MATH TUTOR Feb22 Jan18 Nov29 Nov09 Oct17 (antonucci je)TORRES A 118 15.00    
  (by ALGORITHMS out of COMARE by STREET BOSS)
8  NYTTIME STORY Jun27         (michael bria)CALLEJA ANDRES 124 20.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of TIGRESS TALE by TALE OF THE CAT)
9  FLING READY Apr10 Nov08 Oct19     (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 6.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of MOONLIGHT ROMANCE by LIAISON)
10  SOUTHERN BULLET         (begley greg)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 20.00    
  (by COPPER BULLET out of CAROLINA SOUTH by DIXIE UNION)
SCR  CALL SHADD Apr08 Mar08       (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of WHERE'S LIAM by LIAM'S MAP)
SCR  INITIALIZE Mar21 Feb21 Nov29 Oct24   (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 124 4.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of SHURUQ by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
SCR  MILITARY CRUISER May04         (vaccarezza ni)MORALES EDGAR 124 15.00    
  (by CATALINA CRUISER out of VASILISA by SKIPSHOT)
SCR  CASTLE RUN Nov16 Sep28       (devaux ch)TORRES A 118 5.00    
  (by DAREDEVIL out of SEASONED WARRIOR by MAJESTIC WARRIOR)
 
CD-5   05/08/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GENUINE STAR Mar13         (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.00 7% 12.60    
2  SPY Mar01         (mcso)FRANCA ERIELTUN 124 20.00    
3  DON CORLEONE Apr09 Mar01 Feb02 Apr19 Feb19 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 124 2.50 42% 1.40    
4  LIVEHAPPY Apr13 Mar01 Feb13 Jan01 Dec04 (radosevich)HERNANDEZ J 124 15.00    
5  PENEI Sep22 Aug24 Aug17     (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
6  PIERCE ELEVATED Mar07 Feb07 Jan24 Jun14   (hancock )RODRIGUEZ A 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  ITS PALADIN TIME Jan12         (heitzman eric)ROCCO S 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
8  BERNIEDOTT Apr26         (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
9  GENO'S MYTH Apr10 Jan15 Dec14 Nov09 Mar23 (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 124 3.50 26% 2.90    
10  LE CHIFFRE Nov29 Nov01       (heath g)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
 
CD-6   05/08/2025 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3 ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  AERO STAR Apr18 Mar27 Jan17 Nov29 Oct26 (d'angelo jose)VELAZQUEZ R 120 15.00    
SCR  PURSE THIEF Mar14 Feb26 Jan31 Oct17 Aug29 (foster eric)MONCADA IRVING 115 20.00    
3  HAUNTED FLAME Apr19 Mar21 Nov21 Aug19 Jul05 (jacobson d)CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00    
SCR  OUR FAVORITE SON Mar08 Jan25 Nov01 Sep27 Aug31 (bauer phi)DETTORI LANFRANCO 120 4.50    
5  MAGIC MOVER Apr19 Mar22 Mar08 Jan18 Dec07 (compton gr)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
6  BERMUDA BLITZ Mar14 Feb24 Feb01 Jan04 Nov29 (casse mar)TORRES A 120 4.00 25% 3.00    
7  ART FAIR Apr06 Mar02 Dec15 Nov29 Aug31 (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.00 28% 2.50    
8  SUITED AND BOOTED Mar27 Feb21       (cox brad )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 3.50 22% 3.40    
9  CHARBONNAY Apr23 Mar15 Feb08 Jan25 Nov07 (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 6.00    
10  FORTY LOVE Apr10 Mar13 Feb08     (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   05/08/2025 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($127K) 3 F PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HEREFORAGOODTIME Apr07 Mar02 Jan19 Sep22 Jul29 (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 39% 1.60    
2  POEMA Oct27 Sep05 Jul30     (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00 14% 6.10    
3  BIRKIN GIRL Apr12 Mar01 Jan26 Nov30 Oct19 (colebrook ben)CURTIS BEN 118 12.00    
4  TACO CAT BACKWARDS Mar04 Feb07 Jan09 Dec15 Nov13 (troiani n)TORRES A 118 30.00    
5  SHERBINI Apr12 Oct27 Oct04 Aug31 Jul11 (casse mar)DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 4.00 15% 5.60    
6  KNIGHTOFCARAVAGGIO Sep20 Jul30       (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  SCATTITUDE Mar23 Aug12       (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 6% 14.40    
8  ANNELLE Apr12 Mar08 Feb09 Jan08 Dec05 (david car)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
9  LOVE AND POETRY Mar08 Jan04 Oct26     (devaux cheri)GEROUX FLORENT 118 5.00    
10  DOUBLE VELOCITY Apr12         (joseph saffie)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.50    
SCR  EUNOMIA Apr12 Nov15 Oct10 Sep13 Aug03 (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 118 10.00    
SCR  LADY ORIENT Mar08 Jan20 Dec22 Nov30 Nov01 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
SCR  NEVER REALLY KNOW (IRE) Mar22 Feb27 Aug15 Jul18   (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00    
SCR  SERENDIPITY Mar23         (cox brad )DETTORI LANFRANCO 120 3.50    
 
CD-8   05/08/2025 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3 F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOM'S CHEESECAKE Apr07 Mar06 Feb14 Dec26 Nov23 (kerrick l)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 30.00    
2  TIGER DIVISION Feb21 Jan24 Nov02 Oct10 Sep01 (arnold r)LANERIE J 120 10.00    
3  ALWAYS PRACTICAL Apr19 Mar20 Mar04 Feb06 Dec19 (claire alexis)CURTIS BEN 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  FLASH WEAR Mar16 Feb23 Jan31 Nov30 Oct27 (vance thom)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00    
5  MADELINE'S PROMISE Apr12 Mar01 Jan30 Jan12 Nov23 (romans dal)CORRALES GERARDO 120 6.00    
6  WILL NOT BE SWAYED Mar20 Oct06 Sep08 Aug07 Jul11 (cox h)MACHADO LUAN 120 3.00 55% 0.80    
7  GERLIN'S EMPIRE Mar16 Feb17 Dec21 Nov28 Nov06 (stewart dalla)VELAZQUEZ R 120 3.50 13% 6.60    
8  CAROLINA SMOKESHOW Apr07 Mar04 Feb08 Jan16 Nov21 (beckman wh)GEROUX FLORENT 120 12.00    
SCR  MEZCALIFORNIA Apr07 Mar06 Feb14 Dec20 Nov23 (baker james)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 30.00    
10  ROYAL PRINCESS Apr07 Feb20 Jan25 Aug29 Aug07 (russell brit)TORRES A 120 12.00    
11  PRINCESS NY Apr11 Feb27 Jan12     (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
12  AUSTIN HIGH Mar28         (drury thomas)MONCADA IRVING 115 4.00 9% 10.00    
13  SPOTAWAY Mar23 Feb15 Jan03     (moquett e)BEJARANO R 120 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.