Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Sunday - April 13, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
KEE-1   WIN (8/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/2/6)-(8/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/2/6)-(8/2/6)-(8/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/2/6)-(2/11/9/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/2/6)-(2/11/9/10)-(9/10/7/11/4) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
KEE-2   WIN (2/11/9/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/11/9/10)-(2/11/9/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/11/9/10)-(2/11/9/10)-(2/11/9/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/11/9/10)-(9/10/7/11/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/11/9/10)-(9/10/7/11/4)-(5/4) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
KEE-3   WIN (9/10/7/11/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/10/7/11/4)-(9/10/7/12/11/4) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
KEE-4   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/4)-(8/5/9/1/6) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (5/4)-(8/5/9/1/6)-(10/2/12/3/1) 50 $1.00 $50.00 
KEE-5   WIN (8/5/9/1/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/5/9/1/6)-(8/5/9/1/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/5/9/1/6)-(8/5/9/1/6)-(8/5/9/1/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/5/9/1/6)-(10/2/12/3/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (8/5/9/1/6)-(10/2/12/3/1)-(1/5/10/2) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-6   WIN (10/2/12/3/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/2/12/3/1)-(10/2/12/3/8/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (10/2/12/3/1)-(10/2/12/3/8/1)-(10/2/12/3/8/1) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
    DD (10/2/12/3/1)-(1/5/10/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/2/12/3/1)-(1/5/10/2)-(4/7/2/6/8) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-7   WIN (1/5/10/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/5/10/2)-(1/5/10/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/5/10/2)-(1/5/10/2)-(1/5/10/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/5/10/2)-(4/7/2/6/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/5/10/2)-(4/7/2/6/8)-(12/2/8/11/4) 100 $1.00 $100 
KEE-8   WIN (4/7/2/6/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/7/2/6/8)-(4/7/2/6/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/7/2/6/8)-(4/7/2/6/8)-(4/7/2/6/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/7/2/6/8)-(12/2/8/11/4) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
KEE-9   WIN (12/2/8/11/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (12/2/8/11/4)-(12/2/8/11/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/13/2025 2970ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($90K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWIRLING RIDGE         (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of MACKENZIE CAPRI by ESKENDEREYA)
2  OHOOPEE         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 116 3.50 25% 2.90    
  (by BEE JERSEY out of LADY EKATI by TALE OF EKATI)
SCR  BAYTOWN WONDER         (mcentee paul)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 119 20.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of KIKA by BIRDSTONE)
SCR  MR. VAGGIO         (hancock a)ACHARD ALEX 119 4.50    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of SUNSET PROMISE by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  TALMADGE         (ennis john)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00    
  (by GALILEAN out of TIP TOP TAP by TAPIT)
6  IL SORPASSO         (seglin e)RIQUELME J 119 30.00 6% 14.70    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of BAMBOLA DI PEZZA by EMPIRE MAKER)
7  BAYTOWN TRIOBLOIDI         (mcentee paul)SERPA ANGEL 119 20.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of ACCEPTING by SCARLET IBIS)
8  DIBLASI         (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 119 0.80 36% 1.80    
  (by WIN WIN WIN out of ONE MORE MINUTE by ISTAN)
 
KEE-2   04/13/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RAISING KANE Mar20 Jan27 Dec19 Dec07   (desormeaux )CONCEPCION AXEL 118 8.00    
2  LEAN MUSIC MACHINE Mar19 Feb16 Feb07 Jan10 Dec13 (lynch a)SAEZ LUIS 125 1.60 38% 1.70    
SCR  SKYLER Mar07 Feb15 Jan16 Jan01 Nov23 (foster eric)MORALES EDGAR 125 20.00    
SCR  HOW'YA GETTING ON Mar27 Feb27 Feb08 Jan29 Dec21 (campos paulo)MEZA JJ 118 30.00    
5  JACK RABBIT Mar14         (williamson b)TORRES A 125 20.00    
6  BET ON BRET Aug29 Jul14       (wismer s)MACHADO LUAN 118 30.00    
7  AERATE Mar12 Feb01 Dec28 Nov23   (arnold r)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
8  HEAVY HITTER Mar28 Mar07 May27 May06 Apr25 (hester )DE CRUZ 125 6.00    
9  CAPTAIN FANCY Dec13 Nov09 Oct18 Sep11 Aug24 (foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 113 12.00 17% 4.80    
10  MEMPHIS SLIM Mar27 Feb27 Jan25 Dec19   (lucas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
11  STORMPROOF Mar01         (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 125 3.50 22% 3.60    
 
KEE-3   04/13/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($110K) 3 ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BORROWED TIME Feb15 Jan02 Nov24 Oct19 Aug24 (david a)ROSARIO JOEL 120 20.00    
  (by MORE THAN READY out of SECRETARIAL QUEEN by SECRETARIAT)
2  ROCK IT         (devaux cherie)ORTIZ L 120 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of TAPTANA by TAPIT)
3  SPEEDINI Feb13         (foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 115 30.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of ETSU by SMART STRIKE)
4  PROUDLY HAILED (GB) Feb22 Jan16       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MEHMAS out of SPANGLED by KRIS S.)
5  NOMOLIMBO         (miller da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 120 30.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of PRETTY ZIPPY by CITY ZIP)
6  HARD CIRCLE Feb14 Jan24 Dec20 Nov15 Sep28 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 120 12.00    
  (by HARD SPUN out of FIERCE FOR SUL by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
7  ESMARK Aug31         (oliver victor)VELAZQUEZ R 120 15.00 6% 14.70    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of NEVERTHESAME by SCAT DADDY)
8  GLOBAL PROSPERITY Mar08 Feb01 Jan04 Nov24 Oct11 (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 20.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of PROSPERITE by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
9  DUBLIN'S KNIGHT (IRE) Mar08 Jan25       (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 120 1.80 49% 1.00    
  (by NIGHT OF THUNDER out of GOOD PLACE by STREET CRY)
10  SALAMIS Dec07 Nov09       (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 4.00 19% 4.30    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of ANTONOE by FIRST DEFENCE)
11  WORLD BEATER Feb22 Oct09 Sep12     (mott riley)TORRES A 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of DABINETT by BLAME)
12  PLENSA Nov09 Oct12       (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 120 6.00 ★    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of PROXIMITY BIAS by FLATTER)
 
KEE-4   04/13/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($175K) Purse ($150K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SIMCOE Mar15 Feb23 Jan17 Dec15 Nov24 (vassilieva k)MONCADA IRVING 115 6.00    
2  TOP GUNNER Mar01 Jan16 Dec28 Nov29 Oct26 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 0.80    
SCR  NOVA RAGS May26 Mar07 Feb09 Jan12 Dec15 (mott william )ORTIZ JR 118 15.00    
4  OTTO THE CONQUEROR Aug24 Jun30 Jun05 May04 Mar23 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 5% 19.00    
5  ROLL ON BIG JOE Feb15 Jan03 Dec01 Oct27 Sep29 (hess b)RISPOLI UMBERTO 123 2.00 45% 1.20    
 
KEE-5   04/13/2025 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($77K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING OF GOTHAM         (sims p)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  VENIK Mar15         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
3  HOLSTER Mar02 Feb05 Jan15 Dec27 Nov23 (johnston lane )SAEZ GABRIEL 125 6.00    
SCR  SPIELMAN Mar01 Jan24 Jan05 Dec22 Nov24 (desormeaux )CONCEPCION AXEL 125 8.00    
5  PRIVATE RESERVE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 32% 2.10    
6  GHOST NATION Mar05 Dec21 Nov24 Sep22 Aug20 (matejka pav)GUTIERREZ MARIO 125 20.00 5% 19.00    
7  BEECHMONT Mar08         (foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 113 20.00    
8  EL MAGNIFICO Feb21 Jan04 Oct31 Apr06 Feb17 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 125 3.50 39% 1.50    
9  NAME IT         (toner j)ORTIZ JR 125 8.00 5% 19.00    
10  SECURED LENDER Jan01 Oct10 Sep07 Aug10   (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 4.50    
 
KEE-6   04/13/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($110K) 3 ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MIGHTY MIKE Mar22         (kelley james)CONTRERAS LUIS 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by YOSHIDA out of PICKAWAY by PIVOTAL)
2  THIRTEEN COLONIES Mar22 Jan04       (antonacci phi)ORTIZ JR 120 4.00 24% 3.20    
  (by HIT IT A BOMB out of EVERY SINGLE DAY by STRONG MANDATE)
3  LEBOWSKI Mar05 Feb13 Jan20 Dec22 Nov09 (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 120 8.00 5% 18.80    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of BECKY'S BEST by ELUSIVE QUALITY)
4  A BOURBON FOR TOBY Mar01 Jan03 Dec07 Nov09   (morley tho)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of KITTEN'S GIRL by KITTEN'S JOY)
5  ZUN REYDER Nov13 Oct19       (nihei michelle)DOYLE SOPHIE 120 30.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of PRECOCIOUS MISS by WINSLOW HOMER)
6  BIG RITZ         (arnold george )ORTIZ L 120 15.00    
  (by CARAVAGGIO out of IN DY RITZ by A.P. INDY)
7  DR. NIKO Mar18 Oct27       (bauer phili)CONCEPCION AXEL 120 20.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of NICKEL by NICHOLAS)
8  ANEW Nov30         (walden willia)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.50 ★    
  (by INSTILLED REGARD out of MEIR POINT by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
9  MOON CHANNEL         (lynch brian )GEROUX FLORENT 120 8.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of CRYSTAL MOON by GHOSTZAPPER)
10  EXECUTIVE Mar08 Nov22 Oct12 Aug31   (mott i)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 3.00 31% 2.30    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of LOW PRESSURE ZONE by CURLIN)
SCR  MONEY MAN Mar22 Feb22 Oct25     (heath destin )CANNON DECLAN 120 30.00    
  (by DIALED IN out of ORO BLANCO by HOLD FOR GOLD)
12  BRUSHFIRE Mar22 Mar05 Feb01     (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00 16% 5.40    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of ETERNAL PEACE by WAR FRONT)
 
KEE-7   04/13/2025 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($130K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPEL Aug24 Jul06 May03 Apr05 Mar03 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 1.80 57% 0.70    
2  PAYNT YA LATER Mar19 Aug11 Jul14 Jun15 May11 (moger jr)ROMAN A 120 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MARMALADE SKYE Mar20 Feb24 Feb12 Jan01 Nov29 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 118 20.00    
SCR  LOTSANDLOTSOFCANDY Jul29 Jun08 Apr12     (mcgee paul)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00    
5  INTO CHAMPAGNE Mar08 May03 Mar30 Mar02 Jan07 (wilkes r)VELAZQUEZ R 118 6.00 10% 8.70    
6  SING A LITTLE SONG Mar12 Feb08 Nov28 Nov06 Oct09 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 30.00    
7  MISS ENCHANTED Mar12 Nov27 Oct09 Aug31 Aug03 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 20.00    
8  CAUMSETT Mar19 Feb27 Jan30 Jan15 Dec19 (paye jose)BURGOS ALBERTO 118 20.00    
SCR  PLEASANT EMBRACE Mar15 Feb07 Oct01 Sep07 Aug09 (breen j)ROSARIO JOEL 120 4.50    
10  EASY RED Feb22 Jan02 Nov27 Jan25 Sep29 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 9% 10.70    
 
KEE-8   04/13/2025 3630ft TURF RC12 FIRM Giant's Causeway Purse ($350K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  B G WARRIOR Mar20 Mar01 Jan25 Dec14 Oct24 (brisset rodolph)ACHARD ALEX 122 20.00    
  (by RUN AWAY AND HIDE out of BIOGIO'S GIFT by ANY GIVEN SATURDAY)
2  TOUPIE (GB) Jan19 Nov08 Sep28 Jul12 Jun16 (motion graha)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 3.50 12% 7.40    
  (by UNCLE MO out of AMERTUME by TAPIT)
3  LITHE SPIRIT Mar15 Jan25 Dec21 Oct29 Oct09 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 122 10.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of SPOOKY WOODS by GHOSTZAPPER)
4  FUTURE IS NOW Oct13 Aug23 Jul25 Jun07 May17 (trombetta mi)LOPEZ PASCACIO 124 1.80 38% 1.60    
  (by GREAT NOTION out of PAST AS PRELUDE by BERNARDINI)
5  AWESOME TREAT Mar15 Jan25 Dec14 Nov09 Oct13 (wojczynski jus)DOYLE SOPHIE 122 30.00    
  (by AWESOME PATRIOT out of TIZ A TREAT by TIZ WONDERFUL)
6  DANSE MACABRE Aug31 Jul25 Nov17 Oct19 Sep02 (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 122 8.00 7% 13.30    
  (by ARMY MULE out of SYLPHIDE by BLAME)
7  PANDORA'S GIFT (IRE) Oct13 Sep20       (clement chris)ORTIZ JR 122 6.00 18% 4.50    
  (by CHURCHILL out of AMTHAAL by MR. PROSPECTOR)
8  ACCOMPLISHED GIRL Mar04 Feb01 Dec26 Nov30 Nov09 (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of DAZZLE by SLEWACIDE)
9  GET TWISTED Mar15 Jan29 Jan02 Nov10 Oct20 (navarrete anna)SANJUR SANTO 122 30.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of BIRD SWING by BIRDSTONE)
10  JUST A CARE (IRE) Mar15 Feb08 Dec28 Oct18 Feb24 (lynch a)VELAZQUEZ R 122 4.50    
  (by AUSTRALIA out of GREATER GOOD by INTIDAB)
 
KEE-9   04/13/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIVEHAPPY Mar01 Feb13 Jan01 Dec04 Oct19 (radosevic)HERNANDEZ J 125 15.00    
2  ROMANTIC LEAD Sep05 Aug10       (toner j)SAEZ LUIS 125 3.00 16% 5.20    
SCR  DESERT AIRE Jan30 Jan16 Oct26 Sep14 Aug24 (puhich mike)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
4  BOURBON STREET BOY         (catalano wayn)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 8% 11.90    
5  HOTLINE BLINK Mar19 Mar01 Jan29 Dec24 Oct15 (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 118 15.00    
SCR  SOCO AND LIME Mar08 Jul21 Jun21     (williamson b)TORRES A 125 20.00    
7  MARAVICH Dec21 Oct14 Feb03     (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 125 12.00    
8  BIG SALT LICK Mar19 Feb13 Dec21 Oct31 Oct05 (o'neill do)CORRALES GERARDO 125 5.00 9% 9.80    
9  HEN HEN Mar01 Feb02 Jan05 Jan18   (foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 120 15.00    
10  STORM THE STREETS Mar13 Feb20 Jan27 Nov21 Oct15 (wilkes ian)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
11  BECK'S SPIRIT         (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 10.00 8% 11.10    
12  PARADE OF FEARS         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 4.00 33% 2.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.