Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Tuesday - May 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FE-1   WIN (5/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/2)-(5/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (5/2)-(5/1/2/6) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
FE-2   WIN (5/1/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/2/6)-(5/1/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/2/6)-(5/1/2/6)-(5/1/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/2/6)-(2/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FE-3   WIN (2/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/1)-(2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/1)-(2/6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FE-4   WIN (2/6/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5)-(2/6/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/6/7/5)-(2/1/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
FE-5   WIN (2/1/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/6/7)-(2/1/6/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/6/7)-(2/1/6/7)-(2/1/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/6/7)-(1/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FE-6   WIN (1/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/2/4)-(1/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/2/4)-(1/2/4)-(1/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/2/4)-(5/8/7/4/10) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
FE-7   WIN (5/8/7/4/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/8/7/4/10)-(5/8/7/4/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/8/7/4/10)-(5/8/7/4/10)-(5/8/7/4/10) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/8/7/4/10)-(9/1/8/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
FE-8   WIN (9/1/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/1/8/2)-(9/1/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/1/8/2)-(9/1/8/2)-(9/1/8/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   05/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($24.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ETHNIC SOUL         (williams n)ANDERSON JODEIEN 120 12.00    
2  FOREST SELECTION May01 Feb14 Aug05 Jul08 Jun17 (robillard)SEECHARAN A 120 3.50 9% 10.20    
3  MOBILIZER Sep13 Aug01 Jul12 Jun11 May14 (keen h)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 6.00    
4  WORKIN OUT May06 Oct17 Sep02 Aug14 Jul03 (gilifo)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 3.00    
5  HADDASSAH'S DEVIL Jan07 Dec21 Oct27 Oct09 Sep11 (davis m)MAILHOT P 120 4.00 15% 5.70    
SCR  SEVEN IS A BREEZE Oct04 Sep19 Sep06 Aug20 Jul02 (si)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 2.00 47% 1.10    
 
FE-2   05/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($13.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUMMER RETREAT Dec14 Nov22 Oct24 Oct04 Sep12 (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 122 3.00 20% 4.00    
2  GLITTER MOUNTAIN Oct24 Oct17 Oct04 Aug30 Aug16 (maynar)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KOZY KAT Oct10 Oct04 Sep12 Aug29 Aug16 (ezra d)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 112 6.00    
4  BRADY O'BRADY Oct24 Oct17 Sep27 Sep06 Aug23 (robillard josh)SALLES LEO 122 5.00    
5  ARTIE MY BOY Apr04 Feb22 Feb01 Jan18 Dec14 (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 122 2.50 58% 0.70    
6  UNION COLONEL Oct24 Oct11 Sep27 Aug29 Jul22 (warner k)MAILHOT P 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  DIAMONDBACK Oct17 Oct03 Sep19 Aug14 Jul26 (crete pierre)CHEYNE A 122 4.00    
 
FE-3   05/30/2023 4620ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($6.25K) Purse ($18.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FIRST ROUND May07 Dec11       (humber jos)SLEVINSKY RACHEL 108 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  BREACH OF TRUST Dec09 Nov25 Oct28 Aug19 Jul17 (drexle)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 113 2.50 45% 1.20    
3  TIMMINS Mar12 Feb22 Jan29 Jan11 Dec16 (davi)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 120 1.80 33% 2.00    
SCR  JOE CHROME May23 May07 Nov10 Oct02   (robillard juli)BYNOE DESEAN 113 5.00    
SCR  D'LUCCI BOY Mar01 Jan09 Dec09 Nov09 Sep27 (dunham)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 4.50    
6  RUBY ROAD May15 Nov05 Oct28 Sep09 Aug25 (ma)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 12.00    
7  BROADWAY RUCKUS Mar18 Mar10 Feb26 Feb12 Jan28 (robillard jul)DAVID MICHAEL 120 15.00    
 
FE-4   05/30/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.75K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RAYO COLORADO Oct11 Sep19 Sep05 Aug30 Aug02 (agostino r)SLEVINSKY RACHEL 110 4.50    
2  BIG BAD BEAST Apr30 Mar21 Feb02 Jan16 Dec13 (dixon patrick)CRAWFORD J 120 3.00 53% 0.90    
3  SUPER BREW Oct27 Oct11 Sep19 Aug29 Jun16 (four)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 120 5.00    
4  RADCLIFFE Apr30 Nov25 Oct24 Oct03 Sep20 (robillard jos)GOBAY WILBERT 120 12.00    
5  CRUMLIN EXPERIENCE Nov11 Oct24 Oct11 Sep27 Sep05 (si)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 4.00 5% 19.00    
6  PAPERBACK HERO Oct17 Oct04 Sep20 Aug29 Aug14 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 120 3.50 15% 5.80    
7  BOCELLI (IRE) Nov06 Oct24 Oct11 Oct03 Sep19 (keen howar)FRANCIS G 120 6.00 5% 18.00    
 
FE-5   05/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IS THERE A FOREST Nov10 Oct13 Sep29 Sep09 Aug25 (si)BOULANGER CHANCE 122 4.00 18% 4.50    
2  REMEMBEROLDTYMES Oct10 Sep27 Sep20 Aug09 Jul21 (robillard jos)PINTO MELANIE 122 3.50 46% 1.20    
3  BORN TO BE GOOD Dec08 Nov24 Nov11 Oct13 Sep15 (cathcart ste)CHEYNE A 122 5.00    
4  DOODLE DANDY Oct24 Oct03 Sep19 Sep13 Aug30 (hoad lindse)WENC C 122 15.00    
5  PACENZA May02 Dec13 Nov15 Nov02 Oct11 (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 3.00    
6  BELLA NINA Dec01 Nov03 Oct15 Oct01 Sep15 (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 122 8.00 12% 7.50    
7  ERRATIQUE Apr22 Dec10 Nov26 Nov03 Oct04 (dixon patrick)MORENO OMAR 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  REIGN BY REIN Dec10 Dec01 Nov17 Oct17 Sep19 (ezra d)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 117 6.00    
 
FE-6   05/30/2023 3300ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($12.5K) Purse ($24.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARTEN RIVER Dec10 Nov25 Oct21 Sep16 Sep02 (loescher pau)CHEYNE A 120 2.00 45% 1.20    
2  ALACRITOUS Apr23 Mar23 Feb20 Jan28 Dec22 (buttigieg kevi)BYNOE DESEAN 115 4.00 28% 2.50    
3  LETTING LOOSE Oct24 Oct04 Sep13 Aug16 Aug05 (agostino)BUCHANAN Z 120 8.00    
4  TORPEDO MAX Sep13 Aug30 Aug16 Aug02 Jul04 (loescher paula)CRAWFORD J 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  RED MAPLE Oct24 Oct10 Sep27 Sep13 Aug22 (humber joseph)PINTO MELANIE 120 8.00    
SCR  SUPER GARNER May13 Feb23 Feb09 Nov18 Oct20 (dunham)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 3.00    
7  MONEY MATTERS May07 Apr30 Oct24 Sep27 Sep13 (bird alan)MAILHOT P 118 10.00    
 
FE-7   05/30/2023 3300ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WICKEN CENTS Oct24 Oct10 Sep20 Sep05 Aug09 (bennett micha)DAVID MICHAEL 120 20.00    
  (by NAUGHTY NEW YORKER out of CENT T MINT by I CAN'T BELIEVE)
2  BRIENNE OF TARTH Mar01 Feb08 Jan01 Dec08 Nov18 (robillard julie)CRAWFORD J 120 3.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of BLUE VENUS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  LOTS OF LEGACIES         (bennett )BUCHANAN Z 120 15.00    
  (by NAUGHTY NEW YORKER out of BEWITCHING LADY by SCAT DADDY)
4  MISS SCHILLER May13 Dec01 Nov18 Nov10 Oct24 (humber joseph)MORENO OMAR 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WE MISS ARTIE out of FANTASTIQUE by MORE THAN READY)
5  TANGERINE TWIST Jul19 Jun27       (robillard jul)PINTO MELANIE 120 4.50 53% 0.90    
  (by RELOAD out of SNAPALICIOUS by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  BELLE FEMME Sep20 Aug29 Jul19 Jul05 Jun02 (willia)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 115 20.00    
  (by HYPER out of MOUNTAIN ASTOR by AFTER MARKET)
7  BLACK TAFFY Jul25 Jul05 Jun07 May19 Apr23 (crete pierre)SALLES LEO 120 6.00 10% 8.90    
  (by BLACK EAGLE out of CARAMEL CRUNCH by REBELLION (GB))
8  LOKI'S LIGHTNING May23 May07 Apr29 Sep17 Sep03 (chudobiak )KING MARIE 118 3.50 13% 6.70    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of BEAR'S LIGHTNING by MARIA'S MON)
9  OUR STORMY SOPHIA Dec08 Nov18 Oct27 Oct04 Sep20 (shirle)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 10.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of HURRICANE ISABEL by UNBRIDLED JET)
10  MY SONG AND MELODY Apr12 Mar19 Feb25 Aug05   (davis richar)CHEYNE A 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KATZ MY SONG out of MELODY POMEROY by POMEROY)
 
FE-8   05/30/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($19.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:46
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LUNATICA Dec08 Nov24 Nov12 Oct11 Sep27 (humber jo)SEECHARAN A 120 12.00 34% 1.90    
2  SAMETIMENEXTYEAR Mar31 Mar10 Feb15 Jan20 Dec27 (mileni)ALDERSON IAN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  VERI UNIFIED Oct22 Sep02 Aug20 Jul16 May14 (ryan j)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 8.00    
4  ONE LAST FLING Mar31 Mar10 Feb15 Nov16 Oct07 (mileni nic)KING MARIE 118 3.00    
5  ROAD MAP Nov10 Oct17 Sep18 Sep05 Aug25 (robillard jos)PINTO MELANIE 120 6.00    
6  ONLY BELIEVE Nov03 Oct17 Oct11 Oct03 Sep20 (co)BOULANGER CHANCE 120 20.00    
7  VERMONT HOLIDAY May14 Apr30 Jan02 Dec05 Nov22 (robillard juli)BYNOE DESEAN 113 4.00    
8  PENNIESFROMABOVE Oct24 Oct10 Sep27 Sep13 Aug08 (steer tom)MAILHOT P 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  SHES ASTYLISH KATZ Aug14 Jun27 Jun13 May31 Mar19 (davi)MOSQUEIRA ELUID 120 2.50 39% 1.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.