Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Turf Paradise
Saturday - February 18, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TUP-1   WIN (5/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/2)-(5/6/2/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/2)-(5/6/2/3/4)-(5/6/2/3/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/6/2)-(2) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2)-(2)-(2/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
TUP-2   WIN (2) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (2)-(2/4/1/5) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    TRI (2)-(2/4/1/5)-(2/4/1/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2)-(2/7) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    PK3 (2)-(2/7)-(1) 2 $0.50 $1.00 
TUP-3   WIN (2/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/7)-(2/7/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7)-(2/7/6/1)-(2/7/6/1) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (2/7)-(1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    PK3 (2/7)-(1)-(4/3/2/1/7) 10 $0.50 $5.00 
TUP-4   WIN (1) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (1)-(1/4/5/2/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (1)-(1/4/5/2/3)-(1/4/5/2/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (1)-(4/3/2/1/7) 5 $1.00 $5.00 
    PK3 (1)-(4/3/2/1/7)-(8/3/2/1) 20 $0.50 $10.00 
TUP-5   WIN (4/3/2/1/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/3/2/1/7)-(4/3/2/1/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/3/2/1/7)-(4/3/2/1/7)-(4/3/2/1/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/3/2/1/7)-(8/3/2/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (4/3/2/1/7)-(8/3/2/1)-(3/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
TUP-6   WIN (8/3/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/3/2/1)-(8/3/2/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (8/3/2/1)-(8/3/2/1/5)-(8/3/2/1/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (8/3/2/1)-(3/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/3/2/1)-(3/2/6)-(5/2/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
TUP-7   WIN (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/6)-(3/2/6/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/6)-(3/2/6/4/1)-(3/2/6/4/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (3/2/6)-(5/2/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
TUP-8   WIN (5/2/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/7)-(5/2/7/3/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/2/7)-(5/2/7/3/4)-(5/2/7/3/4) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
TUP-1   02/18/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($10.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LIL LATIGO Feb05 Jan24 Jan10 Dec20 Nov15 (lavanway day)BEVERLY JR 124 10.00    
2  D K'S CROWN Feb09 Jan18 Jan05 Sep17 Sep03 (villamar candelari)GARCIA F 124 6.00 9% 10.10    
3  GO ADMIRAL GO Feb09 Jan30 Dec13 Nov28 Sep24 (silva juan )WILLIAMS AJHARI 124 5.00 ★    
4  ECHO ALPHA SIX Jan30 Dec26 Dec10 Nov21 Jul27 (silva pabl)LEON A 124 4.00 ★    
5  SPENDAHOLIC Feb06 Jul04 Jun02 Apr19 Jan18 (silva jose )CONNING CRYSTAL 124 1.60 44% 1.30    
6  READY TO FORGIVE Feb02 Jan12 Dec27 Dec15 Nov25 (william)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 124 2.50 21% 3.80    
 
TUP-2   02/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($13.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPECCABLE TASTE Jan31 Dec19 Nov28     (rollins sco)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 2.50 ★    
2  KEEPMEINPOWER Jan23 Jan03 Dec19 Nov28 Oct21 (hedge rick)MAWING A 124 5.00 77% 0.30    
SCR  WHAT A WAY TO GO Jan30 Jan08 Dec14     (whitehouse wilt)CRUZ M 124 6.00 ★    
4  FIRST IMPRESSION Jan31 Dec19 Nov29 Jul02   (ortiz sr)VERGARA P 124 1.60 ★    
5  FINE POINT ASSAY Jan31 Jan09 Dec14 Nov15 Sep19 (martinez a)ARBOLEDA ALDO 124 8.00 ★    
6  DADDY'SFAVORITESON Feb08 Jan25 Nov22 Nov09 Aug27 (silva rodri)MARTI ALEXANDER 124 10.00    
 
TUP-3   02/18/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8.5K) Purse ($12.4K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:53
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IN THE MIDST Feb04 Jan14 Dec21 Dec01 Nov15 (person kennet)ARBOLEDA ALDO 122 4.50 ★    
2  BECKHAM JAMES Feb08 Jan24 Jul09 Jun18 May20 (rycroft ril)MARTI ALEXANDER 122 3.00 63% 0.60    
SCR  MONGOL ALTAI Feb04 Jan14 Dec21 Nov28 Sep17 (asprino alfre)LARA EZEQUIEL 122 4.00 ★    
4  LAST RENEGADE Jan28 Jan10 Dec19 Nov19 Feb07 (gutierrez q)MAWING A 122 6.00    
5  FORGOTTEN VOWS Feb05 Jan19 Jan09 Dec14 Dec10 (dennis clif)WILLIAMS AJHARI 122 12.00    
6  MR LOVE MUFFIN Feb06 Jan10 Dec20 Nov23 Aug20 (mccartney jack)ZUNINO L 124 4.00 ★    
7  ANDY BOBBY Feb08 Jan10 Dec22 Nov30 Oct01 (diodoro roberti)LOPEZ KARLO 122 3.50 12% 7.30    
 
TUP-4   02/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($12.4K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  REIGN OF FIRE Feb09 Jan31 Jan19 Jan03 Dec26 (si)DA FAUSTO 124 2.50 73% 0.40    
2  STRADARI Feb01 Jan04 Dec14 Nov26 Nov15 (soto antonio)CORBETT W 124 8.00 ★    
3  MISCHIEF MAMA Feb06 Jan17 Nov23 Nov05 Oct02 (mcfarlane l)LOPEZ KARLO 124 5.00 ★    
4  WAY TO FIRE Feb09 Jan19 Jan02 Dec21 Dec01 (silva jose )WILLIAMS AJHARI 124 8.00 ★    
5  JANERO ROSE Jan11 Dec15 Nov05 Sep10 Aug22 (chambers mi)HERNANDEZ HARRY 124 3.50 ★    
6  PALACE STAR Jan30 Jan11 Dec17 Nov23 Nov04 (perkins fra)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 10.00    
7  MO CONNELLY Jan31 Jan17 Dec27 Dec15 Nov23 (metz jeffrey)CRUZ M 124 6.00    
8  PIRATES CROSS Jan31 Jan11 Dec19 Nov26 Sep09 (ra)MARTINEZ NAHERD 124 4.50    
 
TUP-5   02/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($12.5K) Purse ($13.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMPASSIONED CLAIM Jan03         (barraza ra)VERGARA P 124 8.00 5% 17.20    
2  BOURBON AND WATER Jan28 Jan10 Dec20 Nov28 Nov12 (story chad)MORALES ALLYSSA 124 4.00 10% 9.10    
3  SIXTYFOUR G T O Jan27 Jan06 Dec11 Nov20 Oct30 (evans justin)NEGRON LUIS 124 2.00 14% 6.30    
4  GO LAKER GO Jan28 Sep17 Aug27 Aug07 Jun19 (barraza r)VALENZUELA A 124 3.50 46% 1.20    
5  WINTER SOLDIER Feb06         (essex charles)CRUZ M 124 10.00    
6  MIDNIGHT DADDY         (baze robert)ANAYA V 124 12.00    
7  PRECEDENT Jan30 Jan07 Dec26 Nov05 Oct15 (gleason m)MAWING A 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
8  THIRSTY TIGER Feb06         (grissom roberta )ZUNINO L 124 15.00    
 
TUP-6   02/18/2023 4950ft TURF RC11 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($60K) 3 F PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOBY'S CANDY Jan23         (metz jeffrey)CRUZ M 119 10.00 5% 17.60    
  (by DANZING CANDY out of MYFOURCHIX by HENNY HUGHES)
2  ARIZONA KALEI Jan28 Jan07 Dec10 Oct04 Aug26 (eikleberry kevi)VERGARA P 121 3.50 17% 5.00    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of JACKSONVILLE by BENTON CREEK)
3  DON'T GET PICKLED Jan28 Jan07 Dec21 Nov25 Nov04 (hernandez migue)CORBETT W 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
  (by MISREMEMBERED out of C C'S PRIDE by SUCCESSFUL APPEAL)
4  COUNTESS OF CAIRO Jan26 Dec15 Nov25 Nov04 Aug20 (vanwinkle dav)LARA EZEQUIEL 119 6.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of GUESS WHAT by PROUD CITIZEN)
5  UNA PALABRA Jan25 Dec15       (belvoir van)HERNANDEZ HARRY 119 4.50 ★    
  (by MCCRAKEN out of ONE FOR YOU by DAYJUR)
6  BANGIE GO Jan28 Jan07 Dec10 Nov14 Sep15 (williams matt)LOPEZ KARLO 121 5.00    
  (by UH OH BANGO out of JUSTCALLHERAGGIE by CAUSE UR MINE)
7  JAMIES INHERITANCE Feb01         (rennie rich)MORALES ALLYSSA 119 15.00    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of BETH ANN'S KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
8  FOOLISH DELIGHT Jan29 Dec19 Aug19 Jul17 Jul04 (green greg)PEREZ A 121 4.00 29% 2.50    
  (by CARPE DIEM out of MORE THAN FOLLY by MORE THAN READY)
 
TUP-7   02/18/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($26.9K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEDROCK (GB) Nov28 Nov07 Jul24 Jul04 May06 (christian b)CONNING CRYSTAL 122 12.00 ★    
2  TRUTH SEEKER Jan10 Nov26 Nov04 Jul08 Jun26 (barraza s)MAWING A 122 2.50 26% 2.80    
3  MINISTER OF SOUL Jan29 Jan01 Nov28 Nov04 Sep17 (martinez es)HERNANDEZ HARRY 122 3.50 35% 1.80    
4  RACE HOME Feb07 Jan23 Dec21 Sep05 Jul23 (brown r)MARTI ALEXANDER 124 5.00 ★    
5  MR. STANG Jan28 Jan10 Dec14 Nov21 Aug28 (lucarelli frank)CRUZ M 124 4.00    
6  TONY'S TAPIT Feb04 Jan23 Dec21 Nov04 Sep17 (silva jr)GARCIA F 124 4.50 11% 8.20    
7  JAZZ HANDS Feb08 Jan28 Dec21 Nov28 Apr03 (hernandez mig)VALDES ALEXIS 122 8.00    
 
TUP-8   02/18/2023 4950ft TURF RC11 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($60K) 3 ALL PT- 6:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPECIAL MOMENT Feb07 Jan18 Oct22 Sep24 Sep02 (hone bart)CORBETT W 119 12.00    
  (by STANFORD out of BLAME IT ONTHESONG by BLAME)
2  PUBLIC OPINION Jan26 Nov25 Sep17 Aug28   (rarick wade)LOPEZ KARLO 119 5.00 8% 11.30    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of BARBY SUE by PURGE)
3  ARIZONA ANDREW Jan28 Dec10 Oct04 Sep05 Aug20 (eikleberry )HERNANDEZ HARRY 121 3.50 ★    
  (by LOTSA MISCHIEF out of TOPPISME by SAINT BALLADO)
4  LOUDMOUTHSOUP Jan29 Dec21 Dec01 Nov08 Aug28 (diodoro rober)LARA EZEQUIEL 119 4.00 ★    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of TALKAHOLIC by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
5  I AM FREAKY FAST Jan26 Jan05 Apr28 Apr08   (ferguson cur)GARCIA ENRIQUE 119 3.00 66% 0.50    
  (by CONNECT out of POUNDS TO PENNIES by EXCHANGE RATE)
6  ACCELERITAS Jan28 Dec21 Nov15 Oct01 Sep12 (ei)DA FAUSTO 121 10.00    
  (by SHARP AZTECA out of CELERITAS by STEPHEN GOT EVEN)
7  FLASHIN ACES Jan31 Jan05 Nov30     (belvoir vann)VALDES ALEXIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by DANZING CANDY out of SWEET DREAMIN by NAJRAN)
8  BIG CREED Jan26 Jan09 Dec21 Nov30   (metz jeffrey)MAWING A 119 8.00    
  (by JIMMY CREED out of WINDY FORECAST by STORMY ATLANTIC)
9  MY MAN BIGGIE Jan26 Dec20 Nov25 Nov08 Sep18 (simpson shannon)CRUZ M 119 5.00    
  (by MR. BIG out of TWIN SPIRIT by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.