Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Monday - August 04, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (5/3/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/2/1)-(5/3/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/2/1)-(5/3/2/1)-(5/3/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/3/2/1)-(4/1/2/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (5/3/2/1)-(4/1/2/5)-(4/8/7/1) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-2   WIN (4/1/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/2/5)-(4/1/2/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/2/5)-(4/1/2/5)-(4/1/2/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1/2/5)-(4/8/7/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/1/2/5)-(4/8/7/1)-(5/3/2/4) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/8/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/8/7/1)-(4/8/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/8/7/1)-(4/8/7/1)-(4/8/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/8/7/1)-(5/3/2/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/8/7/1)-(5/3/2/4)-(8/7/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-4   WIN (5/3/2/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/2/4)-(5/3/2/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/3/2/4)-(5/3/2/4)-(5/3/2/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/3/2/4)-(8/7/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/2/4)-(8/7/3)-(7/1/4/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
ELP-5   WIN (8/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/7/3)-(8/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/7/3)-(8/7/3)-(8/7/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/7/3)-(7/1/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/7/3)-(7/1/4/2)-(4/10/7/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
ELP-6   WIN (7/1/4/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/4/2)-(7/1/4/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/4/2)-(7/1/4/2)-(7/1/4/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/4/2)-(4/10/7/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/1/4/2)-(4/10/7/2/6)-(1/11/4/13/9) 100 $0.50 $300 
ELP-7   WIN (4/10/7/2/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/10/7/2/6)-(4/10/7/2/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/10/7/2/6)-(4/10/7/2/6)-(4/10/7/2/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/10/7/2/6)-(1/11/4/13/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/10/7/2/6)-(1/11/4/13/9)-(3/1/2/6/12) 125 $0.50 $62.50 
ELP-8   WIN (1/11/4/13/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/11/4/13/9)-(1/11/4/13/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/11/4/13/9)-(1/11/4/13/9)-(1/11/4/13/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/11/4/13/9)-(3/1/2/6/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
ELP-9   WIN (3/1/2/6/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/1/2/6/12)-(3/1/2/6/4/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (3/1/2/6/12)-(3/1/2/6/4/12)-(3/1/2/6/4/12) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   08/04/2025 4620ft DIRT RC2 FAST Mdn Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($44K) 2 ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AVERY PLACE         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  HONEY DUTCH Jul05         (beckman wh)RAMOS D 119 2.00 14% 6.20    
3  CHUCK'S LAW         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 21% 3.70    
4  EL CHAVO         (wittek kary)STILLION BROOKE 119 20.00    
5  PROPS Jul21         (desormeaux j)TORRES A 119 5.00 41% 1.40    
6  JUST ASAP         (casse mar)TORRES A 119 4.50    
7  SPARKLING SPEED         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 4.00    
 
ELP-2   08/04/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($35K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INTERLOCK EMPIRE Jul14 Jun20 Apr24 Mar22 Feb07 (diodoro r)TORRES A 123 3.00 22% 3.50    
2  OUR DREAM RYE'D Jul12 Jun20 Apr26 Apr04 Jan24 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 8.00 16% 5.10    
3  CASCADE CRUISER May17 Jan11 Dec07 Aug24 Jul06 (rice linda)TORRES A 123 4.00    
4  AIR OF DEFIANCE Jul03 Jun18 May10 Apr12 Jan18 (sharp joe)LEPAROUX R 123 3.50 23% 3.40    
5  KING PEANUT Jun20 May02 Apr18 Mar30 Mar02 (bogle ferg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 10.00 14% 6.20    
6  GIFT CERTIFICATE Jun07 Apr30 Mar14 Nov30 Nov13 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
7  INFINITE LUCK Jun20 May22 May03 Mar18 Jan31 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 4.50    
8  SOUND OF VICTORY Jun29 Jun06 Apr20 Mar28 Mar09 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 123 6.00    
 
ELP-3   08/04/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOOD POINT Jul04 Nov29 Nov08 Oct18 Oct04 (kaufeld krist)CANUTO THIAGO 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  OLIVERIO May29 Apr17 Apr06 Mar20 Feb15 (lopez elias)TORRES A 118 15.00    
3  GUARDIAN Jul14 Jun25 May30 Nov01   (hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 6.00    
4  INDY CHARGES ON Jun13 May01 Apr10 Feb14 Dec20 (davis christop)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 3.00 62% 0.60    
SCR  JOHNSON Jul03 Jun21 Jun08 May17 Feb28 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.50    
6  PIERCE ELEVATED Jun26 May22 May08 Mar07 Feb07 (salas ma)RODRIGUEZ A 118 5.00    
7  GREATDAYFORHOCKEY Jul13 Jun22 May09 Nov24 Oct16 (salas marceli)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
8  BRAVE BLEND Jul04 May29 May09 Mar21 Mar02 (scherer m)LEPAROUX R 123 2.50 8% 11.50    
 
ELP-4   08/04/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($108K) 3 ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HOFF Jul11 May31 Nov01 Sep25 Sep11 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 120 8.00    
2  STAR'S IMAGE Jul04 Jun06 Jan04 Dec16 Nov22 (rivelli la)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 3.00 8% 12.30    
3  LITIGATION Jul13 May30 Mar29 Mar01   (lynch brian)GUTIERREZ MARIO 120 3.50 10% 9.20    
4  HIT THAT REVIEW (IRE) Jul04 May16 Mar29 Jan01 Nov29 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 10.00 7% 12.70    
5  TROUBLESHOOTING Jul04 Jun11 May16 Apr10 Nov23 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 120 2.00 55% 0.80    
6  SHAN Jul08 Jun11 May18 May03 Mar22 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
7  TAYLOR'S VERSION Jun27 May18       (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 5.00    
 
ELP-5   08/04/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($45K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SULTRY KITTEN Jul13 Jun20 Dec01 Oct07 Sep01 (rosin w)JUAREZ NIK 122 3.50    
2  INDESCRIPTABLE Jul12 Feb23 Jan02 Jun28 Jan07 (cobb carol)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 12.00    
3  COTILLARD Jul04 Jun11 May15 Apr16 Nov30 (seglin lu)BEALMEAR C 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MYIYLA Jun08 Mar06 Jun09 Mar22 Mar03 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 10.00    
SCR  ITWILLBEFUN Jul12 May25 Apr18 Feb17 Jan20 (dutrow richa)TORRES A 118 6.00    
6  ARMY GIRL Jul09 Jun12 May15 Sep13 Aug05 (wisner j)LANERIE J 122 10.00    
7  MUSICAL PRAYER Apr04 Mar07 Feb03 Dec13 Aug15 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 122 5.00 24% 3.20    
8  DARK FURY Jun20 May09 Apr23 Feb23 Nov01 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 122 4.00 51% 0.90    
9  RIDE THE BROOM Jul06 Jun04 May01 Mar30 Feb08 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 4.50    
 
ELP-6   08/04/2025 5610ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRONG Jun20 May23       (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 119 3.00 21% 3.70    
  (by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY out of SWEET GOLD by GILDED TIME)
2  HAPPY PRINCE Jun20 May09       (casse mar)TORRES A 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of HAPPY MOTORING by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
SCR  POLITICS         (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 119 8.00    
  (by TACITUS out of VALLESTINA by LEROIDESANIMAUX (BRZ))
4  STILL SOBER Jul06         (caramori eduardo)BEJARANO R 119 15.00 20% 3.90    
  (by WORLD OF TROUBLE out of CAIPIRINHA by TEMPLE CITY)
5  VERY TALL SOMETHIN         (matejka pavel)CANUTO THIAGO 119 15.00    
  (by REAL SOLUTION out of COACHWHIP by SO YOU THINK (NZ))
6  MODERATOR May23         (o'neill do)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
  (by THOUSAND WORDS out of PEACE OPPORTUNITY by POINT OF ENTRY)
7  SO SPECIAL Jul06         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00 22% 3.50    
  (by VEKOMA out of REMARKABLE REMY by HENNESSY)
8  BEDEVILED Jun29         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of DEVILETTA by GUN RUNNER)
9  DA PRINCE IS RIGHT Jun20         (maker michael )MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SHE'S RIGHT AGAIN by DISCREETLY MINE)
 
ELP-7   08/04/2025 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHEZALITTLESTINKER Jul05 Dec19 Oct10 Sep14 Aug19 (catalano m)JUAREZ NIK 124 12.00    
2  MEGA MIL Dec27 Nov15       (servis john)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  MINDY'S UNION Jun19 May02 Mar22 Oct24   (wismer s)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 15.00    
4  VELVET DEVIL Apr24 Feb15 Jan20     (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 118 3.00 35% 1.90    
5  PRETTY SURE Jul13 Sep14 Aug25     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
6  ABITIBI Jun18 May24 Apr18 Mar22 Feb27 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  FOIE GRAS Jul13 Jun22 May02 Apr07 Jan31 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 4.00 18% 4.50    
8  PLANET CLARE Jun22 Dec18 Nov17 Oct03 Sep14 (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
9  SHAN'S QUEST Jul04 Jun12       (tracy tann)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 15.00    
10  SHARED VISION Nov24         (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 118 5.00 21% 3.70    
11  MOON OVER CHOCTAW Mar16 Feb07 Jan03 Sep05 Aug03 (damato philip)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
 
ELP-8   08/04/2025 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EXPATRIATE Jun19 Apr30 Jul18 May17 Feb14 (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 3.00 47% 1.10    
SCR  LOOKSTER Mar29 Mar03 Nov25 Oct29 Aug26 (casse nor)LEPAROUX R 123 15.00    
3  EL JOURY Apr19 Mar08 Oct26 Sep11 Aug19 (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
4  NEW ROME Jun19 Apr30 Apr06 Mar07 Apr26 (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 5.00 12% 7.30    
5  QUIETLY Jun12 May17 Apr18 Aug05 Jul07 (mott riley)TORRES A 123 6.00    
6  CALL ME TONI Oct26 Jul27 Jun21 May23 Apr24 (hughes g)GRAHAM J 123 30.00    
7  MEG'S A STAR         (sisterson jac)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00    
8  SWOONATRA Jun26 Apr26 Mar21 Feb22 Jan26 (deville j)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 8.00    
9  HAY STACK Apr30 Apr06 Jan30 Dec26 Nov22 (beckman wh)RAMOS D 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
10  BIRKIN GIRL Jun19 May08 Apr12 Mar01 Jan26 (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
11  WINNING STREEP Jul04 Jan04 Nov28 Nov02 Oct13 (servis c)LANERIE J 118 4.50 17% 5.00    
12  HUMBLED Jul03 May22 Apr17 Jan16 Nov10 (medina robert)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
13  MISSY BEE Jul04 May17 Apr23 Mar22 Feb22 (foster e)RODRIGUEZ A 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  PRINCESS BUTTERCUP Jul03 Apr18 Mar19 Jan09 Oct24 (shaffer sarah )ELLIOTT JANE 123 30.00    
 
ELP-9   08/04/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THEATRIX Jun18 May29 Apr18 Feb16 Dec26 (arnold ge)TORRES A 119 6.00 31% 2.20    
  (by STREET BOSS out of STAGE FRIGHT by BERNARDINI)
2  TICKIN TIME BLONDE Jun25 Jun05 Apr24 Feb08 Dec24 (oliver vict)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BLONDE BOMBER by FORT LARNED)
3  TEMPTING EVE Jun25 Jun05 May10 Apr19 Mar23 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 40% 1.50    
  (by ALTERNATION out of TEMPTING OUR FATE by ACCLAMATION (GB))
4  TEXAS QUEEN Jun08 May09       (calhoun will)TORRES A 119 5.00 ★    
  (by SENECA JONES out of ELOQUENT QUEEN by RAJA BABA)
SCR  BEA TRIX May10 Apr12 Mar09     (wilkes r)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of SHE'S SO COSMO by LEMON DROP KID)
6  VOLATILE NITE         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of NITE DELITE by WAR CHANT)
7  ENTICING BEAUTY Jan05 Dec06 Nov17     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of BELLA PAELLA by BELLAMY ROAD)
8  SENORA D'ORO         (gutierrez)LEPAROUX R 124 10.00    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SENORA UNO by MACHO UNO)
9  BEE CAT Jul03 May01 Mar22 Jan26   (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of EVIL KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
10  WELLA         (lovell mich)PETERSON FERRIN 119 30.00    
  (by CINCO CHARLIE out of KIVA GIRL by NORTHERN AFLEET)
11  SEVENON Oct23 Sep29       (holsapple hutch)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
  (by GOOD SAMARITAN out of Y SEVEN by GILDED TIME)
12  BOIS BLANC May19 Mar12 Feb06 Dec27 Oct28 (wojczynski justin)MOJICA O 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of FLORIAN by TWIN TIME)
13  STORMY PARADISE Jun07 May19 May05 Mar28 Mar06 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 119 30.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of AVIE'S PARADISE by TASTE OF PARADISE)
SCR  HI'IAKA Jul14 Jul05 Jun18 Jun03 May11 (salas fel)PEDROZA MARCELINO 124 12.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUA MULAN by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  MIZZ CANDY Jul16         (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
  (by CANDY RIDE out of MIZZEN MISS by MIZZEN MAST)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.