Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Ellis Park
Thursday - July 03, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELP-1   WIN (9/4/2/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/4/2/3/8)-(9/4/2/3/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/4/2/3/8)-(9/4/2/3/8)-(9/4/2/3/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/4/2/3/8)-(8/7/1/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/4/2/3/8)-(8/7/1/3)-(4/6/7/5) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-2   WIN (8/7/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/7/1/3)-(8/7/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/7/1/3)-(8/7/1/3)-(8/7/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/7/1/3)-(4/6/7/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/7/1/3)-(4/6/7/5)-(9/6/8/4) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
ELP-3   WIN (4/6/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/6/7/5)-(4/6/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/6/7/5)-(4/6/7/5)-(4/6/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/6/7/5)-(9/6/8/4) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/6/7/5)-(9/6/8/4)-(4/8/5/10/7) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
ELP-4   WIN (9/6/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/6/8/4)-(9/6/8/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/6/8/4)-(9/6/8/4)-(9/6/8/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/6/8/4)-(4/8/5/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (9/6/8/4)-(4/8/5/10/7)-(5/8/2/3/9) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-5   WIN (4/8/5/10/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/8/5/10/7)-(4/8/5/10/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/8/5/10/7)-(4/8/5/10/7)-(4/8/5/10/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/8/5/10/7)-(5/8/2/3/9) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/8/5/10/7)-(5/8/2/3/9)-(1/3/4/6/8) 125 $0.50 $62.50 
ELP-6   WIN (5/8/2/3/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/8/2/3/9)-(5/8/2/3/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/8/2/3/9)-(5/8/2/3/9)-(5/8/2/3/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/8/2/3/9)-(1/3/4/6/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (5/8/2/3/9)-(1/3/4/6/8)-(7/4/13/3) 100 $0.50 $300 
ELP-7   WIN (1/3/4/6/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/3/4/6/8)-(1/3/4/6/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/3/4/6/8)-(1/3/4/6/8)-(1/3/4/6/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/3/4/6/8)-(7/4/13/3) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3/4/6/8)-(7/4/13/3)-(6/8/7/9/10) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
ELP-8   WIN (7/4/13/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/4/13/3)-(7/4/5/13/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/4/13/3)-(7/4/5/13/3)-(7/4/5/13/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/4/13/3)-(6/8/7/9/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
ELP-9   WIN (6/8/7/9/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/8/7/9/10)-(6/8/7/2/9/10) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (6/8/7/9/10)-(6/8/7/2/9/10)-(6/8/7/2/9/10) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELP-1   07/03/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($27.5K) 3UP ALL PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIS CHARMING Jun08 Apr12 Mar01 Feb03 Dec06 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 123 4.50    
2  KENTUCKY GO GO May03 Mar14 Feb21 Dec28 Oct24 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 123 3.50 15% 5.80    
3  FIXITWITHFORWARD Jun20 Jul05 May25 Sep20 Sep02 (cook k)ELLIOTT JANE 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
4  ENOUGH ALREADY Jun08 Apr28 Mar22 Feb21 Feb02 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 123 5.00 24% 3.10    
5  ON MY HONOR May22 Apr10 Feb21 Jan04 Nov27 (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 12.00    
6  WAR DEPT CALLING Jun12 May28 Mar21 Feb27 Jan23 (foster eric)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
7  BOYS CODE May23 Jan30 Jan03 Nov21 Oct25 (dutrow e)JUAREZ NIK 123 4.00    
8  GUCCI MAN Jun12 May28 May12 Mar01 Feb08 (cast)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  AIR OF DEFIANCE Jun18 May10 Apr12 Jan18 Dec07 (sharp joe)TORRES A 123 3.00 39% 1.60    
 
ELP-2   07/03/2025 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 1:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEWITCHINGLY         (walsh brendan )MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by ALYDEED out of LADY TEN by ROCK HARD TEN)
2  PROWESS         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of SWEET AUGUST LADY by CITY ZIP)
3  COLD CASE         (moquett r)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of BRIE'S SNOWFLAKE by TALE OF THE CAT)
4  DUTCH GIRL         (lynch bri)TORRES A 119 4.50    
  (by HOLY BULL out of LISTED by HOUSEBUSTER)
5  RUNADHARA         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of ADHARA by PERRAULT (GB))
6  RUN ON STATES         (medina robert)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
  (by YAUPON out of MONORAIL by INTO MISCHIEF)
7  CUE THE DRAMA         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 21% 3.80    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of BREAKSHOT by LEMON DROP KID)
8  SONIC SASS         (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 119 3.50 34% 1.90    
  (by YAUPON out of FEELING BOSSY by COURAGEOUS CAT)
 
ELP-3   07/03/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($31.25K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STINGRAY SHUFFLE Oct05 Sep07       (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 4.50    
2  SOCO AND LIME Jun13 May25 Mar08 Jul21 Jun21 (williamson b)GEROUX FLORENT 124 4.00    
3  SKYLER Mar07 Feb15 Jan16 Jan01 Nov23 (foster eric)SAEZ GABRIEL 124 6.00    
4  ZOHERE Jun15 Apr30       (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 119 3.50 64% 0.60    
5  CLOCKING         (simms jr)BEJARANO R 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
6  BEEVILLE Apr17 Jan19       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00 10% 9.40    
7  BOTE Jun04 May17 Apr13 Mar23 Feb23 (pomier chasey )ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WHEN SMOKEY SINGS         (amoss m)GRAHAM J 119 5.00    
9  BEECHMONT Jun01 Apr13 Mar08     (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
SCR  UNCLE SHAW         (vaccarezza nicho)JUAREZ NIK 119 15.00    
 
ELP-4   07/03/2025 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($104K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TWO EAGLES RIVER May23 May01 Apr19 Mar15 Jan31 (blair jor)TORRES A 122 8.00    
2  PRINCE OF POWER Apr19 Apr08 Feb15 Jan25 Dec28 (esqu)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 6.00    
SCR  CAT ON TIME Jun12 May23 May01 Apr19 Mar29 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 1.80    
4  AMERICAN XPERIMENT May17 Nov16 Sep06 Aug17 Sep24 (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00 11% 8.00    
SCR  BIG HAT WILLIE May18 Apr29 Jan23 Nov22 Oct16 (atras rob)TORRES A 122 8.00    
6  CLASSIC LEGACY Jun07 May01 Mar08 Feb08 Dec29 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 122 10.00 20% 4.10    
7  LOUISIANA JESS Dec14 Nov22 Aug03 Jun14   (calhoun wi)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
8  GOODASIWONSWAS Jun06 May17 Feb23 Jan25 Jan04 (quartarolo ant)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 8.00 19% 4.30    
9  COACH JIMI D Jun12 Apr18 Jul21 Jun09 May18 (divito p)MOJICA O 122 3.50 27% 2.70    
 
ELP-5   07/03/2025 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LADY BLAKE May29 Apr16       (wojczynski just)ACHARD ALEX 118 20.00    
2  TACO CAT BACKWARDS May08 Mar04 Feb07 Jan09 Dec15 (troiani nicco)CANNON DECLAN 118 12.00    
3  PURRING May29 Mar09 Sep11 Aug21 Aug02 (pomier ch)LEPAROUX R 123 12.00    
4  WHAPPEN Apr23 Mar28 Jan31 Dec19 Oct26 (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 60% 0.70    
5  MUSTANG LADY Apr11 Feb22 Jan23 Dec26 Nov29 (newton troy)MONCADA IRVING 118 8.00 8% 11.80    
6  PRINCESS BUTTERCUP Apr18 Mar19 Jan09 Oct24 Aug31 (shaffer sarah )ELLIOTT JANE 123 10.00    
7  ANIMAL FRIES May09 Feb22 Jan23 Dec20 Oct16 (newton troy)MORALES EDGAR 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  EXINGTON Mar28 Mar03 Nov29 Oct26 Aug29 (walsh brendan )SHEEHY DANNY 118 6.00 10% 8.70    
9  BEACH BUNNY Jun11 Apr26 Apr10 Jan16 Nov21 (habeeb j)BEJARANO R 123 10.00    
SCR  MINT DRIVEN May17 Mar26 Mar15 Dec20 Oct24 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
11  PULA Jun10 Apr23 Mar09 Feb16 Sep13 (diodoro r)TORRES A 123 3.00    
 
ELP-6   07/03/2025 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($37.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOLD GUNNER Jun18 May25       (pomier ch)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
2  HELM PLACE Jun18 May16 Apr11 Feb15   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 14% 6.10    
3  DISCOMBOBULAATOR Sep05 Aug21 Jun17 Jun08   (caramori eduardo)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  JACK RABBIT Apr29 Apr13 Mar14     (williamson b)BARBOSA CARLOS 124 20.00    
5  PROBABLY Jun12         (oliver victor)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.50 36% 1.80    
6  TURNBUCKLE Jun14 Apr06 Mar19 Feb15 Feb07 (hancock dana)TORRES A 118 8.00    
7  TIMBOS TANGLER Mar21 Mar05 Jan17     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 15.00    
8  COCKTAILSNKRINGLE Jun25 Jun05 Feb22 Jan11 Oct17 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 3.00 23% 3.40    
9  MIDNIGHT SURVIVOR Jun01 May15 Apr23 Apr06 Mar08 (bahena ismael)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
10  TROJAN PRIDE Jun21 May16 Apr27 Apr06   (vance d)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
 
ELP-7   07/03/2025 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($102K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ROCKY JOY Jun01 Apr19 Feb01 Jan04 Nov24 (lobo h)MACHADO LUAN 123 5.00 40% 1.50    
2  CIRO DI MARZIO Apr19 Feb01 Nov30     (ward wes)RODRIGUEZ A 123 3.50    
3  QUATROCENTO May10 Apr17 Mar28 Aug10 Jul13 (gutierrez)LEPAROUX R 123 3.00 21% 3.80    
4  MY BOY TONY May18 Apr24 Mar18 Feb15 Nov21 (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 123 4.50 8% 11.30    
5  PUBLICITY May30 May01 Apr10 Mar07 Feb05 (londono genevi)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 20.00    
6  BILLY THE GREEK Jun19 Apr25 Jan24 Nov23 Sep13 (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  ZARTOWNIS May16 Aug23 Jul11 Jun16 Mar28 (murphy conor)GRAHAM J 123 10.00    
8  BROWN LIQUOR MAN Jun01 Sep19 Aug01 Jul06 Jun08 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 8.00 5% 19.00    
9  BIG HAMMER May22 May07 Apr08 Feb15 Jan04 (wismer glenn)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 20.00    
10  SALTED CARMEL Jun06 May02 Mar12 Feb09 Jan22 (maker michael)MORALES EDGAR 125 12.00    
 
ELP-8   07/03/2025 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($102K) 3 ALL PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRUMMIN May17 Oct12 Sep14 Aug26 Jul07 (hancock a)LANERIE J 120 30.00    
SCR  BERMUDA BLITZ Jun11 May08 Mar14 Feb24 Feb01 (hernandez arma)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 30.00    
3  KALAHARI DREAMS Jun01 Mar12 Feb15 Jan04 Nov30 (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  FAUST Jun21 May03 Apr19 Mar29 Feb23 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 3.50 28% 2.50    
5  MCKINZIE STREET Jan04 Nov17 Oct05 Sep08 Jul28 (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 120 6.00 ★    
6  BIG BOAT Apr11 Feb24 Dec13 Nov02 Oct05 (divito p)MOJICA O 120 12.00    
7  FACT May24 Apr12       (walden wil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 43% 1.30    
SCR  RUN BENJI RUN Jun16 May29       (jura)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 122 20.00    
9  STIGLETS Jun01 Apr19 Jan17 Dec13 Nov09 (damato phili)TORRES A 120 8.00    
10  MY OWN Dec06 Jul29       (foster eric)MACHADO LUAN 120 30.00    
11  COMES A TIME Oct27 Sep21       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 10.00    
12  SINISTER SMILE Jun13 May24 Apr26 Mar22 Feb23 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 122 10.00    
13  HYMN (IRE) Jun01 Apr19 Mar14 Feb08   (moquett ronal)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-9   07/03/2025 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MARCINKOWSKI Jun07 Sep01       (lovell miche)TORRES A 118 12.00    
  (by BLAME out of VERDURA by SMART STRIKE)
2  SPEED SHOPPER May24 Feb02 Dec26     (walden wi)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 6.00 ★    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of FAST RETAILING by MALIBU MOON)
3  BEE CAT May01 Mar22 Jan26     (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of EVIL KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
4  LADY LILYLOU Apr24         (drury thom)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of TERRIFIC TREASURE by STREET CRY)
5  MCLAUGHLIN Jun05 Mar06 Feb06     (davis christop)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00    
  (by UNCLE MO out of ITSAGIANTCAUSEWAY by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  SAUCIER May02 Mar22       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.50 45% 1.20    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of DOWN IN FRONT by WAR FRONT)
7  LES IS BEST Jun12 Apr17 Mar22 Jan23 Jan01 (foster er)TORRES A 118 12.00 10% 8.90    
  (by CATHOLIC BOY out of UNFOLD THE ROSE by CATIENUS)
8  CIRQUE LODGE         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 21% 3.90    
  (by JUSTIFY out of SMART SHOPPING by SMART STRIKE)
9  HUMBLED May22 Apr17 Jan16 Nov10 Sep26 (medina robert)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of COLINA VERDE by KNOW HEIGHTS)
10  MACLEAN'S LULLABY Jun06 May11 Apr16 Mar06 Feb08 (matejka )RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of JOYFUL HOLIDAY by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
11  ABILITY Jun03 Mar06       (wojczynski just)ACHARD ALEX 118 20.00    
  (by BRODY'S CAUSE out of PERFECT AGILITY by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
12  STAR BLESSING (IRE) Jun14         (catalano wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00    
  (by NO NAY NEVER out of LIKE A STAR by LIKE A SOLDIER)
SCR  DEAR SCARLETT Jun05 Apr16 Aug05 Jun18   (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 124 30.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of BUTTERNUT BLOOMERS by CURLIN)
SCR  GOOD GOING May09 Mar22 Feb01     (devaux cheri)TORRES A 118 10.00    
  (by MENDELSSOHN out of GOOD DEED by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  HI'IAKA Jun18 Jun03 May11 Mar21 Mar13 (salas felipe)ACHARD ALEX 124 20.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of HUA MULAN by MALIBU MOON)
SCR  UNMERITED FAVOR Oct26 Aug31       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of GOING FOR BROKE by BLAME)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.