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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - June 25, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/2)-(1/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/2)-(1/4/2)-(1/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/2)-(6/1/10/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/4/2)-(6/1/10/8)-(2/4/8) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/1/10/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/10/8)-(6/1/10/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/10/8)-(6/1/10/8)-(6/1/10/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/10/8)-(2/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/1/10/8)-(2/4/8)-(4/11/1/8/2) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/4/8)-(2/4/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/4/8)-(2/4/8)-(2/4/8) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/4/8)-(4/11/1/8/2) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (2/4/8)-(4/11/1/8/2)-(2/4/10/1/12) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-4   WIN (4/11/1/8/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/11/1/8/2)-(4/11/1/8/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/11/1/8/2)-(4/11/1/8/2)-(4/11/1/8/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (4/11/1/8/2)-(2/4/10/1/12) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (4/11/1/8/2)-(2/4/10/1/12)-(8/9/4/6/1) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-5   WIN (2/4/10/1/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/4/10/1/12)-(2/4/10/1/12) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/4/10/1/12)-(2/4/10/1/12)-(2/4/10/1/12) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/4/10/1/12)-(8/9/4/6/1) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (2/4/10/1/12)-(8/9/4/6/1)-(9/1/8/10) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-6   WIN (8/9/4/6/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (8/9/4/6/1)-(8/9/4/6/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (8/9/4/6/1)-(8/9/4/6/1)-(8/9/4/6/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (8/9/4/6/1)-(9/1/8/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (8/9/4/6/1)-(9/1/8/10)-(6/9/2/8) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (9/1/8/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (9/1/8/10)-(9/1/8/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/1/8/10)-(9/1/8/10)-(9/1/8/10) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (9/1/8/10)-(6/9/2/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (9/1/8/10)-(6/9/2/8)-(1/15/4/9/11) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (6/9/2/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/9/2/8)-(6/9/2/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/9/2/8)-(6/9/2/8)-(6/9/2/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/9/2/8)-(1/15/4/9/11) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (1/15/4/9/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/15/4/9/11)-(1/15/4/14/9/11) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    TRI (1/15/4/9/11)-(1/15/4/14/9/11)-(1/15/4/14/9/11) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   06/25/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($70K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JUST AN OPINION May11 Mar07 Jun21 Mar21 Mar07 (asmussen m)SAEZ LUIS 123 2.00 38% 1.60    
2  FUN TO RUN May23 Apr29 Feb08 Jan16 Nov27 (hess b)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  AMY Z May29 May02 Apr04 Dec20 Nov24 (martinez a)GRAHAM J 125 4.00    
4  CAROLINA CANDY Jun11 May15 Apr10 Feb27 Jul06 (ennis john)MACHADO LUAN 123 3.50 19% 4.30    
5  COPPER EM May11 Mar14 Jan17 Nov15 Nov02 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 123 2.50    
6  CERVARO DELLA SALA (GB) Apr26 Apr11 Mar13 Feb27   (meah m)CURTIS BEN 123 10.00    
 
CD-2   06/25/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KENSINGTON COVE May25 Apr27 Apr18 Mar28   (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 125 8.00 17% 4.80    
SCR  REACTION May18         (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
3  OLD TRACE May16 Apr30 Mar27     (warpool shane)ELLIOTT JANE 118 20.00    
4  BERNIEDOTT Jun13 May08 Apr26     (king bar)RODRIGUEZ A 118 15.00    
5  COCKTAILSNKRINGLE Jun05 Feb22 Jan11 Oct17 Sep19 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 3.50    
6  GUARDIAN May30 Nov01       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 38% 1.70    
SCR  CLOCKING         (simms jr)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
8  ACTIVITY Apr30 Apr08 Mar15     (cline c)MACHADO LUAN 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  NICO'S DERBY RUN May25 Feb21 Jan25 Dec27   (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
10  BIG SALT LICK Jun08 May17 Apr13 Mar19 Feb13 (andrade hu)VILLARREAL OSCAR 120 6.00 16% 5.20    
 
CD-3   06/25/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($71K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GOLDEN GLIDER Jun07 May25 Apr24 Mar09 Feb16 (jacobson )TORRES A 118 2.50    
2  TIGER MOON Jun06 May18 Feb06 Jan11 Dec07 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  COPPERMASTER May23 Apr16 Mar01 Feb01 Jan04 (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
4  AMERICAN LAW Jun07 May18 Apr24 Mar23 Feb08 (morse l)LANERIE J 118 6.00 21% 3.80    
5  LAUGHING BOY Jun06 May25 Feb28 Jan05 Dec22 (jacobson )CAMACHO JR 118 3.50    
6  UNDERHILL'S TAB Jun07 Apr12 Mar16 Jan25 Dec13 (medina rob)HUSBANDS J 113 4.50    
7  REFUAH May16 May01 Apr12 Mar15 Feb17 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 10.00    
8  WINSTON WOLF Jun06 May23 Apr13 Feb13 Jan27 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-4   06/25/2025 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIZ IN SIGHT         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 4.50 7% 12.90    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of HINDSIGHT by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
2  WICKEDWITHBOURBON         (desormeaux kei)RIQUELME J 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BOBBY'S WICKED ONE out of BETTERWITHBOURBON by YANKEE GENTLEMAN)
3  AMES         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
  (by RUNHAPPY out of ATTEMPT TO NAME by CONSOLIDATOR)
4  WAKUDA May22 Apr30       (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50 46% 1.20    
  (by GUN RUNNER out of SIMPLY SOVEREIGN by AMERICAN PHAROAH)
SCR  JOKE MAKER         (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of SWAN OF THE NILE by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
6  NIGHTMARE FUEL         (eurton peter)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
  (by SPUN TO RUN out of NIGHTSTAND by MALIBU MOON)
7  PIANISSIMA         (lukas wayn)TORRES A 119 20.00    
  (by MOQUEST out of WILD HEART RUN by AFTER MARKET)
8  MISS COMPLICATED         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by COMPLEXITY out of CAUSE FOR PRAISE by CREATIVE CAUSE)
SCR  COMMAND THE STARS         (cunningham j)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
  (by MIDAS TOUCH (GB) out of EGYPTIAN CHARMER by GREAT PYRAMID (IRE))
10  SISSY SOX         (schultz lindsa)ASHTON GAVIN 119 15.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of WINTER STORM NADIA by INTO MISCHIEF)
11  WHERE LUCK LIVES         (lynch bri)TORRES A 119 4.00 26% 2.80    
  (by NYQUIST out of HOLIDAY SOIREE by HARLAN'S HOLIDAY)
12  STARBRITE STARLITE         (sims a)BEJARANO R 119 15.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of PLACE DES VOSGES by PLEASANTLY PERFECT)
SCR  AMAZING AMANDA         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
  (by VEKOMA out of CRUZIN ON IN by STORMY ATLANTIC)
 
CD-5   06/25/2025 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PANCAKE HOUSE Dec22 Nov15 Sep25 Aug18 Jul15 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 124 4.00 9% 9.70    
2  CURLIN'S GESTURE Jun12 May01 Apr10 Mar01 Jan18 (scherer marianne)SAEZ LUIS 124 8.00 43% 1.30    
3  TRULY LEGIT May03 Mar22 Feb26 Feb02 Sep23 (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00    
4  KING CURLIN May19 Apr17 Mar29 Mar15 Nov29 (vanden britt)EMIGH A 124 5.00 12% 7.40    
5  EARNED NOT GIVEN Jun07 Apr23 Feb15 Jan20 Jan03 (glatt mark)BEJARANO R 118 8.00    
6  DBOOK May28 Apr10 Feb26 Jan31 Dec28 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
7  ULTIMATE STRIKE Jun13 May29 Mar02 Feb03 Dec22 (casse w)MACHADO LUAN 124 10.00    
8  ITSINMYBLOOD Jun07 May10 Apr10 Feb26 Jan24 (mckeever andr)MORALES EDGAR 120 12.00    
9  D DAY REUNION May22 May03 Apr13 Mar09 Feb17 (mcgovern shannon)PRESCOTT R 124 15.00    
10  DOUBLE NEAT Jun12 Mar29 Feb27 Feb06 Dec26 (van tho)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 4.50 12% 7.60    
11  KIGALI Jun06 Feb22 Feb07 May25 Apr27 (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00    
12  ELEGANT TRIP May16 Nov28 Oct18 Aug31 Jul28 (arnold george)ASMUSSEN ERIK 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  BADGE OF WAR Jun14 May10 Apr12 Feb27 Jan01 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 124 3.00    
SCR  BROWN LIQUOR MAN Jun01 Sep19 Aug01 Jul06 Jun08 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 124 2.50    
 
CD-6   06/25/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ADULARE         (mccarthy mic)TORRES A 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  EMPLOYEEOFTHEMONTH May16         (d'angelo jos)MONCADA IRVING 113 4.00    
3  RISUKO Jan16 Dec04 Oct19 Sep01 Jul27 (david a)JUAREZ NIK 118 10.00    
4  AMELIA'S ECHO May30 Sep21 Aug30 Aug11 Jul06 (damato philip)BEJARANO R 118 5.00 10% 8.50    
5  SUPER MAXIMA May03 Apr12 Feb23 Nov30 Nov13 (seglin lu)BEALMEAR C 118 12.00    
6  POUR A LITTLE MORE Jun04 Apr29 Dec12 Nov09   (drury jr)CURTIS BEN 124 8.00 6% 16.60    
7  ACTION PLAYER         (norris mike)ELLIOTT JANE 124 20.00    
8  TIMBO'S MISCHIEF May24         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 5.00 48% 1.10    
9  VOLATILE MARKET Sep16 Aug03 Jul04     (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 4.50 15% 5.60    
10  BRIDGIE BOP         (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 10.00    
11  MY KENTUCKY LILY         (ennis john)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 10.00    
 
CD-7   06/25/2025 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($12.5K) Purse ($60K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  METATRON'S MUSE Jun05 May23 Apr26 Feb01 Jan01 (hartman ch)HERNANDEZ J 120 4.50 5% 18.30    
SCR  NIKOLAOU Jun05 Apr29 Mar15 Feb28 Feb01 (dixon jr)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00    
3  LIAM THE BRAVE Jun05 May16 Apr19 Mar22 Jan29 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 20.00    
4  PROVEN HOPE Jun05 May11 Apr19 Mar01 Feb08 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 8.00    
5  SHOT OF COURAGE Jun05 May03 Apr11 Mar30 Feb23 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 20.00    
SCR  ASMODEUS Jun05 May16 Apr26 Jan25 Dec21 (summers chad)MONCADA IRVING 118 20.00    
7  CASHMEUP Jun11 May11 Mar29 Mar08 Feb14 (johnston l)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.00    
8  RUNWITHHEART May11 Apr08 Aug25 Jul21 Jun23 (holsapple hutc)ORTIZ L 120 3.00 5% 19.00    
9  COPPERLITE May11 Apr19 Mar09 Feb01 Dec28 (ramsey nolan)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50 61% 0.60    
10  CYBERTOWN Jun06 May03 Mar30 Mar01 Jan26 (shorter aaro)TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-8   06/25/2025 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MATH TUTOR Jun07 May08 Feb22 Jan18 Nov29 (antonucci je)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 10.00    
2  B SUDD May29 Mar22 Feb23 Jan19 Dec14 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 123 6.00 10% 8.80    
3  RIVER RIDGE May24 May09 Apr24 Mar12 Feb23 (johnston lan)BARBOSA CARLOS 125 15.00    
4  AJAAYB Jun08 May17 Feb01 Jan04 Dec06 (esquivel gu)GUTIERREZ MARIO 125 12.00    
SCR  HOLSTER May17 Apr26 Apr13 Mar02 Feb05 (rice linda)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 3.50    
6  NORTHERN CHILL May16 Apr26 Mar21 Mar07 Feb16 (shirer ma)TORRES A 125 3.00 29% 2.40    
7  FURIOUS ANGER Jun12 May23 Nov24 Nov03 Sep22 (romans dale)LANERIE J 125 4.00    
8  GATESKEEPER Apr18 Mar29 Feb08 Jan17 Dec21 (cunningham s)GEROUX FLORENT 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
9  RISK IT Apr29 Apr08 Mar04 Jan23 Dec21 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 123 4.50 27% 2.70    
 
CD-9   06/25/2025 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TEMPTING EVE Jun05 May10 Apr19 Mar23 Feb15 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 5.00 42% 1.40    
  (by ALTERNATION out of TEMPTING OUR FATE by ACCLAMATION (GB))
2  BOUJEE BEACH May15 Jan26 Nov10 Oct12 Aug31 (miller peter)GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of DYNA'S DESTINY by DYNAFORMER)
3  VOLATILE JINNY May31         (wismer glenn)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 20.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of JINNY JUMP UP by JUMP START)
4  MURPHY GIRL Jun07 May09 Mar16 Feb16 Dec01 (romans dale)LANERIE J 118 3.50 14% 6.30    
  (by WAR OF WILL out of CURLED by CURLIN)
5  DIDN'T IT RAIN Apr29 Mar23 Nov30     (stall m)ELLIOTT JANE 118 12.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of ANOTHER DAY OF SUN by ARCH)
6  DODECAHEDRON         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of PI D by CIRCUMFERENCE (IRE))
7  MONSOON DANCER Dec11         (wojczynski jus)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 30.00    
  (by GET STORMY out of SHE'S MESSI by PURIM)
SCR  BELLA BLUEGRASS Aug15         (anderson )DETTORI LANFRANCO 118 20.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of BECKY'S BLUEGRASS by MACHO UNO)
9  TICKIN TIME BLONDE Jun05 Apr24 Feb08 Dec24 Nov17 (oliver victoria)GRAHAM J 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of BLONDE BOMBER by FORT LARNED)
SCR  WILDFIRE PRINCESS May25 Apr24       (hess b)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of GO WEST MARIE by WESTERN FAME)
11  PARISI         (walden william)JUAREZ NIK 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of COUP DE MAIN by CITY ZIP)
SCR  CANDY MINE Apr16 Aug25       (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of TIZ RAE ANNA by TIZ WONDERFUL)
SCR  OCEAN RIPPLE Jun07 Apr29 Mar28 Mar02 Sep08 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of CHARREADA by KITTEN'S JOY)
14  ONE FRONT WAR Jun07 Mar21 Feb14 Oct23 Aug31 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 6.00 ★    
  (by WAR FRONT out of SINGLE SOLUTION by FLATTER)
15  LUCY MCGEE Jun07 May15 Jul22 Jun26   (lovell michell)DOYLE SOPHIE 118 3.00 18% 4.70    
  (by PRACTICAL JOKE out of TIZANILLUSION by TIZWAY)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.