Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - June 12, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/3)-(1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/3)-(6/1/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/5/3)-(6/1/5/2)-(4/5/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/1/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/5/2)-(6/1/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/5/2)-(6/1/5/2)-(6/1/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/5/2)-(4/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/1/5/2)-(4/5/2)-(3/8/9/7/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (4/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/2)-(4/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/2)-(4/5/2)-(4/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/2)-(3/8/9/7/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (4/5/2)-(3/8/9/7/5)-(9/7/1/4/8) 75 $1.00 $75.00 
CD-4   WIN (3/8/9/7/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/8/9/7/5)-(3/8/9/7/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/8/9/7/5)-(3/8/9/7/5)-(3/8/9/7/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/8/9/7/5)-(9/7/1/4/8) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (3/8/9/7/5)-(9/7/1/4/8)-(1/3/8/9/7) 125 $1.00 $125 
CD-5   WIN (9/7/1/4/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (9/7/1/4/8)-(9/7/1/4/8) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (9/7/1/4/8)-(9/7/1/4/8)-(9/7/1/4/8) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (9/7/1/4/8)-(1/3/8/9/7) 25 $1.00 $25.00 
    PK3 (9/7/1/4/8)-(1/3/8/9/7)-(3/2/1/6) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-6   WIN (1/3/8/9/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/3/8/9/7)-(1/3/8/9/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/3/8/9/7)-(1/3/8/9/7)-(1/3/8/9/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/3/8/9/7)-(3/2/1/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3/8/9/7)-(3/2/1/6)-(3/8/1/5/7) 100 $1.00 $100 
CD-7   WIN (3/2/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/1/6)-(3/2/1/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/1/6)-(3/2/1/6)-(3/2/1/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/1/6)-(3/8/1/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/8/1/5/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/8/1/5/7)-(3/8/1/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/8/1/5/7)-(3/8/1/5/7)-(3/8/1/5/7) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   06/12/2025 7260ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STELLIFY May01 Mar23 Feb22     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 124 2.00 50% 1.00    
2  WEDDING MOOD (IRE) May10 Apr12       (lynch bri)TORRES A 118 4.00    
3  INDY'S HALO Apr23 Mar15 Feb28 Jan31 Dec27 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  HEART SPIN May11 Apr06 Mar06 Jan23 Dec26 (navarrete anna)SANJUR SANTO 124 20.00    
5  TARNEEMA May24 Apr23 Mar14 Feb13 Dec28 (walsh p)CURTIS BEN 124 1.60 18% 4.40    
6  QUIETLY May17 Apr18 Aug05 Jul07 May25 (mott riley)TORRES A 124 3.50    
 
CD-2   06/12/2025 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOUTHEASTERN         (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 119 2.50 22% 3.60    
  (by CHARLATAN out of MISS INTERPRET by STREET SENSE)
2  CLOCKER SPECIAL         (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT THIS TIME out of CHIDING by BLAME)
3  SENSE OF FREEDOM May23 Apr10       (seglin e)RIQUELME J 119 15.00    
  (by HIGHTAIL out of COMPLETE SENSE by STREET SENSE)
4  OBLITERATION         (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 119 8.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of I'MCLASSYANDSASSY by MASTER COMMAND)
5  CURTAIN CALL         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 3.00 6% 17.10    
  (by CONGRATS out of DEEP TROUBLE by INTO MISCHIEF)
6  SHE'S ON A ROLL         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 116 2.00 35% 1.80    
  (by CHARLATAN out of SUMMERSAULT by ROCK HARD TEN)
7  AMERICAN BEAR         (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
  (by AMERICAN DAY out of GO ALI (GB) by ALYDAR)
8  HYPERLINK         (asmussen ste)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00    
  (by TOCCET out of LA PANZANELLA by TALE OF THE CAT)
 
CD-3   06/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($82K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ELEGANT May15 Apr16 Jun13 May11 Mar24 (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 123 3.50    
2  DAY DAWNING Apr25 Mar07 Jan24 Jan05 Dec27 (barnett c)GRAHAM J 123 8.00 6% 14.80    
3  CE LA VI CHARLI May22 Mar01 Feb09 Dec28 Nov30 (blair jordan)TORRES A 118 6.00    
4  KENTUCKY SMOKESHOW Apr25 Mar22 Mar01 Jan31 Nov06 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 3.00 28% 2.60    
5  STAGE PRESENCE May24 Aug31 Jun28 May25   (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 125 2.50 23% 3.30    
SCR  LOW KEY Mar15 Feb23 Aug26 Aug03   (amoss m)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00    
7  ARMY GIRL May15 Sep13 Aug05 Jun24 Feb23 (wisner j)LANERIE J 123 12.00    
 
CD-4   06/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ONE FOR MY BROTHER May25 May10 Apr16 Mar29 Mar08 (vosler eugen)MONCADA IRVING 118 15.00    
SCR  KING PEANUT May02 Apr18 Mar30 Mar02 Jan17 (bogle fergus)BEJARANO R 123 20.00    
3  VITEMENT Jun04 May01 Feb22 Feb10 Dec22 (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 123 3.00 49% 1.00    
4  CATAMOUNT Mar21 Feb17 Dec11 Jul22 Jun30 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 4.50    
5  NOT NORMAL May28 May10 Nov06 Oct18 Sep22 (murphy conor)MACHADO LUAN 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  TIVERTON (GB) Jun04 May25 May23 May10 Apr30 (salas marceli)GARCIA MARTIN 123 12.00    
7  SUTHERLAND May10 Mar08 Jan24 Dec22 Nov23 (richard chris)MORALES EDGAR 123 6.00 5% 17.20    
8  PENROD May22 Apr30 Mar28 Mar01 Jan31 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 125 3.50 12% 7.10    
9  MORE THAN FIVE May28 May13 Apr29 Mar08 Feb17 (garcia genar)TORRES A 125 8.00 8% 10.90    
10  WESTERN COMMAND May02 Mar16 Feb17 Dec22 Jul13 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 123 5.00    
 
CD-5   06/12/2025 5280ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ASKARI May18 Apr19 Mar29 Mar05 Jan29 (davis christ)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.50 5% 19.00    
2  TWO BEERS BY TEN May22 Mar29 Feb26 Jan30 Jan03 (maker mic)DETTORI LANFRANCO 124 10.00    
3  GAMBLIN GEORGE May07 Jun16 May30 Apr24 Feb09 (kelley a)ROCCO S 124 20.00    
4  MUSICAL MAESTRO May02 Apr09 Feb26 Jan04 Dec13 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  COVERT LAW May26 Apr06 Mar12 Feb07 Jan18 (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00    
6  GAME POINT May01 Mar07 Feb15 Dec21 Nov04 (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 124 20.00    
7  PINELAND May17 Apr18 Mar09 May04 Mar15 (schultz lindsa)ORTIZ L 124 6.00 14% 6.00    
8  CURLIN'S GESTURE May01 Apr10 Mar01 Jan18 Dec21 (scherer mar)GUTIERREZ MARIO 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
9  QUOKKA Jan25 Dec28 Oct24 Sep19 Aug23 (blair jordan)CURTIS BEN 124 10.00 54% 0.80    
10  HOUSE UNITED May30 Apr29 Mar01 Feb01 Jan01 (atras rob)LEPAROUX R 126 3.00    
11  DOUBLE NEAT Mar29 Feb27 Feb06 Dec26 Nov04 (van tho)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 12.00    
 
CD-6   06/12/2025 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GARDINER May18 Nov22 Nov01 Oct17 Sep12 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 120 2.50 29% 2.40    
2  DAZZLEMESILVER May16 Mar21 Feb28 Feb08 Jan04 (shirer ma)TORRES A 123 12.00    
3  SUITED AND BOOTED May08 Mar27 Feb21     (cox brad )CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 3.00 29% 2.50    
4  SHOW MASTER May15 Aug01 Jun30     (arnold george)MORALES EDGAR 125 15.00    
5  REDACTED May10 Apr17 Mar18 Feb13 Jan20 (stewart dall)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
6  FULLY VOLATILE May03 Apr08 Feb22 Jan31 Jan12 (heitzman eri)TORRES A 118 8.00    
7  FURIOUS ANGER May23 Nov24 Nov03 Sep22 Jul18 (romans dale)LANERIE J 123 10.00 5% 19.00    
8  TRUST ISSUES May11 Apr16 Feb15 Dec28 Nov23 (atras rob)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.50 15% 5.90    
9  MORUNNING May16 Jan19 Jan04 Nov24 Oct10 (davis chri)HERNANDEZ J 123 15.00 7% 13.40    
 
CD-7   06/12/2025 4950ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IGNITE THE LIGHT Apr17 Mar16 Feb15 Jan01 Dec13 (dutrow richard)ORTIZ L 121 3.50 8% 12.20    
2  DEER DISTRICT May23 May02 Apr12 Feb22 Feb07 (stewart dallas)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 8% 12.10    
3  CAT ON TIME May23 May01 Apr19 Mar29 Jan05 (jacobson )TORRES A 123 2.00 61% 0.60    
4  COACH JIMI D Apr18 Jul21 Jun09 May18 May05 (divito jam)HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00    
5  FRIAR LAURENCE May23 Apr25 Mar29 Feb17 Jan31 (rice linda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 10.00    
6  STRETCH RIDE Apr19 Jan18 Nov24 Oct24 Sep29 (romans dale)LANERIE J 121 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  SPINNING PRIDE May17 Apr03 Mar19     (candelas blanc)CEDILLO ABEL 116 20.00    
8  TOUR PLAYER May23 Nov28 Oct31 Oct05 May27 (lukas wayn)GEROUX FLORENT 123 5.00    
 
CD-8   06/12/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISTER BANDERAS May10 Apr10 Nov17 Oct26   (medina ro)LEPAROUX R 124 5.00 14% 6.10    
  (by STAR GUITAR out of C R VEXORA by GRAEME HALL)
2  GOOD MOJO         (forster t)CURTIS BEN 118 10.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of CASTINETTE DANCER by MINISTERS WILD CAT)
3  LAMBO May03 Mar28 Mar07 Jan24 Jul29 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 124 3.00 36% 1.80    
  (by UNCLE MO out of SUNSHINY DAY by BERNARDINI)
4  BIG LUCKY         (lukas wayn)TORRES A 118 12.00    
  (by WEKIVA SPRINGS out of BOLD WEADY by BOLD FORBES)
5  MUNSON Jul13 Jun06       (amoss m)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 13% 6.70    
  (by GHOSTZAPPER out of REDSHIRT by DISTORTED HUMOR)
6  MO WORK Apr08         (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50    
  (by OUTWORK out of OUTRAGEOUS MISS by BERNARDINI)
7  GALLO DE FUEGO May15 Jan24 Nov20 Nov09 Oct05 (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of SPELLING AGAIN by AWESOME AGAIN)
8  STUDENY May24 Apr26 Apr13 Mar16 Dec07 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 4.00 15% 5.50    
  (by FROSTED out of RACE HUNTER by DIXIE UNION)
9  LOTTERY WIN May10 Apr06 Nov27 Nov01   (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 12.00    
  (by MACLEAN'S MUSIC out of RARE ARTICLE by GHOSTZAPPER)
10  FLY J'S FUNTASTIC Apr23 Mar19 Jan16 Dec04 Oct31 (stinson william)ACHARD ALEX 124 12.00    
  (by FUNTASTIC out of FLOWERY by DISTORTED HUMOR)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.