Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - June 11, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (3/1/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/1/5/6)-(3/1/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/1/5/6)-(3/1/5/6)-(3/1/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/1/5/6)-(5/6/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/1/5/6)-(5/6/2)-(2/9/6/4/5) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-2   WIN (5/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/6/2)-(5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/6/2)-(2/9/6/4/5) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2)-(2/9/6/4/5)-(2/1/5/7) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/9/6/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/9/6/4/5)-(2/9/6/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/9/6/4/5)-(2/9/6/4/5)-(2/9/6/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/9/6/4/5)-(2/1/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/9/6/4/5)-(2/1/5/7)-(8/1/6/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-4   WIN (2/1/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/5/7)-(2/1/5/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/5/7)-(2/1/5/7)-(2/1/5/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/5/7)-(8/1/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/1/5/7)-(8/1/6/5)-(8/9/2/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-5   WIN (8/1/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/1/6/5)-(8/1/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/1/6/5)-(8/1/6/5)-(8/1/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/1/6/5)-(8/9/2/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/1/6/5)-(8/9/2/1)-(3/2/7/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-6   WIN (8/9/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/9/2/1)-(8/9/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/9/2/1)-(8/9/2/1)-(8/9/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/9/2/1)-(3/2/7/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/9/2/1)-(3/2/7/1)-(3/11/9/2/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (3/2/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/2/7/1)-(3/2/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/2/7/1)-(3/2/7/1)-(3/2/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/2/7/1)-(3/11/9/2/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/2/7/1)-(3/11/9/2/4)-(1/4/3/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (3/11/9/2/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (3/11/9/2/4)-(3/11/9/2/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (3/11/9/2/4)-(3/11/9/2/4)-(3/11/9/2/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (3/11/9/2/4)-(1/4/3/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (1/4/3/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/4/3/9)-(1/4/3/9) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/4/3/9)-(1/4/3/9)-(1/4/3/9) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   06/11/2025 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($67K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PURPLE AND GOLD May24 Oct27 Sep13     (cox h)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 12% 7.70    
2  LINDY CAN May17 Apr24       (foley greg)MONCADA IRVING 113 6.00    
3  TRISTA Apr04 Feb24       (lukas wayne)JUAREZ NIK 118 2.50 65% 0.50    
4  DEVASTATING May02 Mar22       (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 3.00    
5  LADY DIXIE         (heitzman eric)ROCCO S 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  COWGIRL CHIC         (reed r)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  POWERWASHED Aug29 Aug04       (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 8.00    
8  DREAM LIFE         (reed eri)RODRIGUEZ A 118 15.00    
 
CD-2   06/11/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($78K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AGENT CREED Apr17 Mar04 Feb08 Jan12 Dec26 (troiani nicco)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
2  SWIFT AS I AM May18 Apr29 Feb15 Jan18 Dec13 (jacobson david)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 8% 12.20    
3  INEXORABLE May25 May03 Jun19 May05 Mar30 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 4.00    
SCR  EL REY DORADO May03 Apr04 Mar08 Jan31 Sep14 (hartman chri)MONCADA IRVING 113 3.50    
5  CASHMEUP May11 Mar29 Mar08 Feb14 Jan17 (casse w)ORTIZ L 118 2.00 30% 2.40    
6  OUTLIER May16 Apr24 Dec27 Nov28 Nov03 (hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 118 5.00 22% 3.60    
7  PIKE PLACE May25 Apr11 Mar15 Feb17 Jan19 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   06/11/2025 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ACTUAL         (kenneally eddie)CURTIS BEN 119 5.00    
  (by MIGHTY out of LEGIT (IRE) by RUNNETT (GB))
2  RATHER LATE May15         (hancock joh)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00 38% 1.70    
  (by VOLATILE out of RATHER BEAUTIFUL by MALIBU MOON)
3  LATE NIGHT TEXT         (ramsey nolan)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ARRIFANA by CURLIN)
4  KINGSOLVER         (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of FAMOUS WRITER by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
5  RUBY RUBY         (o'dwyer jeremi)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MCKINZIE out of IT JUSTHITTHE WIRE by BERNARDINI)
6  SMELL THE LILIES         (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 119 4.50 17% 4.80    
  (by JUSTIFY out of UP AT DAWN by UNCLE MO)
7  GO TO GIRL         (mcpeek kenneth)ORTIZ L 119 6.00    
  (by KNICKS GO out of REVEALING QUALITY by QUALITY ROAD)
8  BEST FRIEND         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00    
  (by DR. CATON out of SISTERS CREEK by PENTELICUS)
9  HYLLA         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 4.00 23% 3.30    
  (by LIAM'S MAP out of MYAWAYA by WICKED STRONG)
 
CD-4   06/11/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($86K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BERNIN HOT May09 Jan24 Dec28 Dec01 Oct30 (crichton rohan)CURTIS BEN 118 5.00 18% 4.70    
2  GREAT ESCAPE (ARG) May09 Jan25 Jan03 Aug24 Jul12 (diodoro r)TORRES A 118 5.00 28% 2.60    
3  DEAN MARTINI Apr19 Feb15 Sep28 Aug22 Jul21 (eurton peter)ORTIZ L 118 3.50    
4  CAROLO RAPIDO May23 Apr26 Mar22 Jan25 Jan05 (sweezey kent)MACHADO LUAN 118 4.00    
5  TRIDENT HIT May09 Feb08 Jan24 Dec22 Nov07 (moquett e)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.50 17% 4.80    
6  BOURBON RESOLVE Apr25 Jan25 Dec01 Nov09 Sep15 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 2.50    
7  MANTA REY Apr11 Mar22 Mar09 Jan23 Jan04 (casse nor)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-5   06/11/2025 7260ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LONG AGO (GB) Mar22 Mar12       (walsh p)CURTIS BEN 122 5.00 34% 2.00    
2  ITSALLABOUTMEBABY Mar23 Mar01 Jan31 Sep10 Jun18 (reed eri)RODRIGUEZ A 122 15.00    
3  SANCTIFY May11 Apr18 Mar26 Dec27 Nov29 (holsapple )HERNANDEZ J 122 6.00    
4  PARISH LANE May17 Apr23 Mar28 Sep05 Jul08 (kenneally eddi)MACHADO LUAN 122 3.50    
5  HERE'S THE SPIDER May23 Dec14 Oct26 Sep21 Aug30 (fernandez edwa)CEDILLO ABEL 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
6  JANEY CREED Jan16 Nov22 Oct16 Apr25 Mar21 (hughes g)GRAHAM J 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  IN TIME (FR) Oct04 Aug22 Jul25 Jul07 Apr25 (clement miguel)ORTIZ L 122 3.00    
8  PARTIR (FR) Apr25         (mott riley)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50 39% 1.60    
 
CD-6   06/11/2025 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MISS SUSAN B May17 May03 Mar21 Mar07 Feb21 (labra rogelio)MORALES EDGAR 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  CAROLINA SMOKESHOW May08 Apr07 Mar04 Feb08 Jan16 (beckman d )HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  BEACH BUNNY Apr26 Apr10 Jan16 Nov21 Oct31 (habeeb donald )MACHADO LUAN 123 20.00    
4  BRUNCH WITH AMY Mar21 Jun15 Apr27 Apr06 Mar08 (eurton peter)BEJARANO R 123 4.50    
5  CRUSHED ICE May22 Nov20 Oct28 Oct17 Aug31 (quartarol)LEPAROUX R 123 15.00    
SCR  PALMETTO FURY Mar15 Sep25 Aug11 May30 Mar29 (joseph saf)HUSBANDS J 118 3.00    
7  TENNESSEEHONEYBEE May15 Apr11 Mar12 Feb23 Dec26 (sweezey kent)CURTIS BEN 123 15.00    
8  PASSAGE EAST (IRE) May11 Apr18 Mar14 Feb21 Feb01 (mcmahon hu)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 2.00 63% 0.60    
9  BOURBON SERENGETI May11 Mar06 Jan01 Dec18 Nov21 (dutrow e)SAEZ LUIS 123 3.50 11% 8.20    
 
CD-7   06/11/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($86K) 3 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PUTTING EAGLE May02 Apr06 Mar01 Feb07 Jan18 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  JOEJOE GO May03 Mar14 Feb17 Jan16 Dec19 (walsh brendan)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 22% 3.60    
3  THRILLA May25 Apr08 Mar08 Feb08 Jan11 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 4.00 36% 1.70    
4  BYE BYE MILES May02 Apr13 Mar15 Feb07 Jan04 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 4.50    
5  CHARBONNAY May08 Apr23 Mar15 Feb08 Jan25 (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 15.00    
6  WACO Apr11 Mar21 Feb17 Jan26 Jan04 (lukas wayne)JUAREZ NIK 118 6.00    
7  BERMUDA BLITZ May08 Mar14 Feb24 Feb01 Jan04 (casse mar)TORRES A 118 5.00 14% 6.20    
8  SHAN May18 May03 Mar22 Feb22 Jan18 (moger jr)BEJARANO R 118 5.00    
 
CD-8   06/11/2025 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  INNOVATOR May03 Mar22 Feb23 Jan18 Dec29 (lukas wayn)TORRES A 118 5.00    
2  MAE TOWN May09 Mar16 Feb15     (lynch brian )GEROUX FLORENT 115 8.00 12% 7.00    
3  TROUBLESHOOTING May16 Apr10 Nov23 Nov01 Sep26 (foley greg)MORALES EDGAR 118 4.00 26% 2.80    
4  LET'S GO MARK May26 Apr17 Mar05 Jan31 Jan03 (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 12.00 9% 9.70    
5  INITIALIZE May09 Mar21 Feb21 Nov29 Oct24 (walsh p)SAEZ LUIS 125 8.00    
6  FROSTY INDULGENCE May17 Apr12 Feb15 Jun30 May26 (davis christop)MACHADO LUAN 123 15.00    
7  THEISMANN Apr08 Feb15 Jan15 Mar24 Feb24 (eurton peter)DOYLE SOPHIE 123 20.00    
8  DARK VINTAGE (IRE) Nov11 Oct07 Aug03 Jun22   (block chris)CURTIS BEN 123 15.00    
9  ROJO RITA May15 Mar16 Feb01 Nov15   (joseph saf)HUSBANDS J 108 3.50 13% 6.50    
10  SEND CASH Apr17 Mar09 Jun27 May12   (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 123 12.00    
11  UNIVERSAL SOUND Feb01 Dec28 Dec06 Mar02 Feb16 (eurton peter)ORTIZ L 123 5.00 18% 4.70    
12  BRIE'S IN TOWN Apr06 Aug11 Jul14 Jun23   (ennis john)GRAHAM J 118 30.00    
 
CD-9   06/11/2025 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($76K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KEEN CAT May18 Apr11 Feb14 Jan19 Dec22 (morse rand)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 61% 0.60    
2  GILMORE May18 Apr16 Mar13 Feb06 Dec13 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 120 2.00    
3  SYSTEMIC CHANGE May18 May03 Apr13 Feb28 Jan26 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 120 12.00 6% 15.30    
4  MY NOBLE KNIGHT May03 Apr13 Feb07 Dec05 Nov06 (amoss m)LANERIE J 123 4.50 7% 13.50    
SCR  SWISS SLANG May18 Jan24 Dec28 Nov02 Apr26 (orantes r)ACHARD ALEX 118 20.00    
6  GASOLINE May23 May03 Apr11 Feb24 Jan24 (david a)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
7  AZOI May07 Mar29 Mar01 Feb08 Oct23 (bahena i)RODRIGUEZ A 118 30.00    
SCR  RUNWITHHEART May11 Apr08 Aug25 Jul21 Jun23 (holsapple hutch)BOWEN ROCCO 120 8.00    
9  DANCE SOME MO May18 Apr19 Mar29 Feb17 Jan04 (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.