Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fair Grounds
Saturday - March 04, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FG-1   WIN (4/1/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/1/6/5)-(4/1/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/1/6/5)-(4/1/6/5)-(4/1/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/1/6/5)-(5/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/1/6/5)-(5/7/2)-(3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
FG-2   WIN (5/7/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/2)-(5/7/2/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/7/2)-(5/7/2/4/1)-(5/7/2/4/1) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/7/2)-(3) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (5/7/2)-(3)-(5/6/2) 9 $0.50 $4.50 
FG-3   WIN (3) 1 $2.00 $2.00 
    EXA (3)-(3/5/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI (3)-(3/5/2)-(3/5/2) 2 $0.50 $1.00 
    DD (3)-(5/6/2) 3 $1.00 $3.00 
    PK3 (3)-(5/6/2)-(2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
FG-4   WIN (5/6/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/6/2)-(5/6/2/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/6/2)-(5/6/2/1/7)-(5/6/2/1/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (5/6/2)-(2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2)-(2/6)-(6/2/8) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
FG-5   WIN (2/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/6)-(2/6/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/6)-(2/6/4/3)-(2/6/4/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (2/6)-(6/2/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (2/6)-(6/2/8)-(1/5) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
FG-6   WIN (6/2/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/8)-(6/2/8/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (6/2/8)-(6/2/8/4)-(6/2/8/4) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (6/2/8)-(1/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (6/2/8)-(1/5)-(5/3/6/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
FG-7   WIN (1/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/5)-(1/5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5)-(1/5/2/3)-(1/5/2/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (1/5)-(5/3/6/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (1/5)-(5/3/6/7)-(2/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
FG-8   WIN (5/3/6/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/3/6/7)-(5/3/6/7/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (5/3/6/7)-(5/3/6/7/1)-(5/3/6/7/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (5/3/6/7)-(2/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
FG-9   WIN (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/1/3)-(2/1/3/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (2/1/3)-(2/1/3/7)-(2/1/3/7) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FG-1   03/04/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STONE ALLIANCE Feb11 Jan07 Dec08 Nov26 Mar20 (cuccia j)ALBERT S 117 5.00 19% 4.20    
SCR  CHIEF KIMOSABI Feb10 Jan08 Dec09 Oct28 Aug26 (flint steve)MELANCON G 122 4.50 ★    
3  OLE STUD MUFFIN Feb24 Feb10 Jan08 Dec01 Jun08 (ladner herm)BARANDELA SOFIA 117 12.00    
4  DEMON HUNTER Jan22 Jan01 Dec08 Nov26 Jul23 (hodges james)NIEVES EMANUEL 122 2.00 37% 1.70    
5  SNEAKY ALLIE KAT Feb11 Jan22 Jan01 Dec08 Jun30 (peterso)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 122 3.50 8% 11.00    
6  FORGED IN STEEL Dec22 Nov02 Jun04 May11 Mar16 (gelner scott)GREEN AUBRIE 122 6.00 10% 9.00    
7  R T'S D'ORO Feb11 Feb01 Nov19 Oct05 Aug17 (sam w)STOKES A 122 8.00    
 
FG-2   03/04/2023 3630ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($5K) Purse ($22K) 4UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NEW YEAR'S PARTY Feb09 Jan19 Dec29 Dec04 Nov19 (mouton patri)NIEVES EMANUEL 122 5.00 ★    
2  SHADES OF TRUTH Jan19 Dec30 Nov19 Oct20 Aug27 (delany sa)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00 7% 13.10    
3  MYFRIENDSAWINNER Jan25 Nov22 Nov04 Oct20 Aug28 (ramirez rosa )VARGAS P 122 12.00    
4  GALAXY THIRTYSIX Jan27 Jan06 Dec10 Nov18 Aug19 (ney john)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 2.00 ★    
5  ZYDECO MUSIC Feb04 Jan06 Dec10 Nov18 Oct13 (wilson shan)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 2.50 53% 0.90    
6  COMMERCIAL FLASH Jan16 Dec29 Dec04 Mar11 Jan27 (hodges e)GRAHAM J 122 10.00    
7  OURPERFECTPRINCESS Jan27 Jan06 Dec10 Nov18 Sep20 (hargrave kenneth)RIQUELME J 120 4.00 11% 8.10    
 
FG-3   03/04/2023 5280ft TURF RC11 FIRM Red Camelia Purse ($75K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EVE'S DELIGHT Jan14 Dec10 Oct07 Sep27 Aug17 (goins ga)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 117 6.00    
  (by APRIORITY out of PRADO STRUTTER by EL PRADO (IRE))
2  A G'S CHARLOTTE Feb04 Dec10 Nov18 Oct07 Aug06 (west patr)PEDROZA MARCELINO 117 4.00 ★    
  (by MO TOM out of ADRIANNE G by INDYGO SHINER)
3  FREE LIKE A GIRL Feb04 Jan07 Dec31 Dec10 Nov04 (pomier chasey )COTTO L 117 2.50 61% 0.60    
  (by EL DEAL out of FLASHY PRIZE by FLASHY BULL)
SCR  WORLD WAR Feb16 Jun04 May12 Mar20 Feb11 (faucheux r)LOVEBERRY JARETH 117 6.00 ★    
  (by DECLARATION OF WAR out of SPARKLING DIAMOND by FINEST HOUR)
5  WHOLELOTTAMO Jan28 Jan01 Dec10 Nov18 Jun04 (gelner ja)HERNANDEZ J 117 15.00 ★    
  (by MO TOM out of JET'S TRADITION by A. P JET)
SCR  WINNING ROMANCE Feb04 Jan07 Dec10 Nov18 Oct07 (calhoun william )PARKER L 117 3.50 15% 5.60    
  (by FIRST SAMURAI out of LIPSTICK JUNKY by FLATTER)
7  FORT POLK Feb04 Dec10 Nov18 Sep27 Aug06 (mouton patri)NIEVES EMANUEL 117 8.00    
  (by BEHINDATTHEBAR out of MILITARY MISS by MILITARY)
8  CHEAPSKATE DIVA Dec10 Nov18 Aug06 Jul03 Jun11 (felks r)GRAHAM J 117 8.00    
  (by ANIMAL KINGDOM out of BEAUTIFUL LIAR by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
9  BLESSED ANNA Jan28 Nov25 Jul10 Jun20 May21 (faucheux ron)COHEN DAVID 117 10.00    
  (by FAST ANNA out of PLEASANTLY BLESSED by PLEASANT TAP)
 
FG-4   03/04/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($15K) Purse ($24K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OTTOTHELEGEND Jan19 Oct06 Sep17 Jul10 May22 (richard chris)GRAHAM J 121 6.00 ★    
2  SUPER WISE Feb21 Feb04 Jan08 Dec17 Nov18 (foster j)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 121 3.50 20% 4.00    
3  SMOKEY HARBOR Feb11 Jan19 Dec11 Nov27 Nov16 (camejo jos)URDANETA J 121 4.00    
4  PAYNT BATTLE Feb09 Jan12 Dec27 Dec01 Nov11 (zenon shelton)VARGAS P 121 8.00    
5  TAPAGE Jan25 Dec27 Dec03 Oct26 Aug06 (tracy greg)NIEVES EMANUEL 121 3.00 26% 2.90    
6  CLASSIC KING Feb21 Dec17 Dec04 Nov02 Oct12 (govea cesar)GREEN AUBRIE 121 4.00 23% 3.40    
7  VIM AND VIGOR Jan28 Dec29 Dec04 Nov03 Sep04 (wilson shane)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 ★    
 
FG-5   03/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SHELLEY'S MONEY Feb03 Dec29 Dec07 Jul11 Jun14 (duhon o)MELANCON G 120 6.00 ★    
2  BELEOUT Feb04 Jan01 Dec01 Jun04 Apr15 (dandridge courtney)GRAHAM J 119 1.60 48% 1.10    
3  READY FOR CHANGE Jan14 Dec17 Nov10 Sep25 Aug07 (pessin neil )BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 2.50 ★    
4  DONYA KNOW IT Feb11 Jan14 Dec15 Nov23 Oct20 (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50 ★    
5  ROOKERY Dec17 Nov20 Sep24 Aug07 Jul23 (catalano wa)BARANDELA SOFIA 115 12.00    
6  MISTY DAY Feb11 Dec17 Nov16 Feb02 Jan07 (bourgeois k)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 5.00 21% 3.80    
 
FG-6   03/04/2023 5280ft TURF RC11 FIRM Edward Purse ($75K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SMARTY ALEX Jan26 Jan07 Dec19 Dec11 Oct06 (claire a)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 117 10.00    
  (by KARAKONTIE out of BARBIES M by AFLEET ALEX)
2  MANGELSEN Jan20 Aug06 Jul09 Jun04 Mar05 (faucheux )PEDROZA MARCELINO 117 5.00 5% 19.00    
  (by BIG BAND SOUND out of TEERIFIC TEE by LIL E. TEE)
3  BUDRO TALKING Jan07 Dec09 Sep17 Aug14 Jun11 (rodriguez )MURRILL MITCHELL 117 8.00    
  (by TALE OF EKATI out of AMERICAN PLACED by QUIET AMERICAN)
4  HIGHLAND CREEK Feb04 Dec30 Dec10 Nov19 Oct08 (calhoun will)BESCHIZZA ADAM 117 5.00 ★    
  (by BROKEN VOW out of MIZZENWAY by MIZZEN MAST)
5  WICKED ROSE Feb20 Feb02 Jan12 Dec29 Nov25 (johnson b)GRAHAM J 117 20.00    
  (by WICKED STRONG out of PALOMA ROSE by CITY ZIP)
6  WHO TOOK THE MONEY Jan07 Dec10 Nov19 Oct08 May07 (calhoun william )PARKER L 123 0.80 70% 0.40    
  (by STREET BOSS out of SPEIGHTS' COLONY by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
7  MAGA MAN Feb10 Jan07 Dec10 Nov19 Jun04 (miller norman )GREEN AUBRIE 117 20.00    
  (by MUSKET MAN out of LEW'S GRAY by PULLING PUNCHES)
8  BIG CHOPPER Feb04 Jan07 Dec10 Nov19 Nov03 (gelner scott)LANERIE J 117 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SHACKLEFORD out of MISS WELL MOLDED by UNUSUAL HEAT)
SCR  BLUE CHEESE Jan26 Jan12 Dec22 Dec01 Nov16 (breaux samuel)LANERIE J 117 12.00 ★    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of LEMONDROPKISSES by LEMON DROP KID)
SCR  CHANGI Dec09 Nov12 Oct21 Jun06 May15 (dolan jeann)BARANDELA SOFIA 117 30.00    
  (by GIANT OAK out of OUR MISS BROOKSIDE by THE CLIFF'S EDGE)
 
FG-7   03/04/2023 5490ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($50K) 3 ALL PT- 5:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BO CRUZ Feb05         (stall m)RIQUELME J 120 2.50 57% 0.80    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of QUICK BREEZE by GHOSTZAPPER)
2  DUAL MONARCHY Feb02 Jan05 Dec03     (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 120 5.00 ★    
  (by CAIRO PRINCE out of SURFER'S PARADISE by CONGRATS)
3  RULE BREAKER         (cox brad )PEDROZA MARCELINO 120 4.00 ★    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of ARTEMIS AGROTERA by ROMAN RULER)
4  SILVER BULL Jan21 Dec16       (foley greg)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 15.00    
  (by MOHAYMEN out of BUNEYA by INDIAN CHARLIE)
5  PRESIDER Jan21 Oct19 Sep16 Aug28   (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 120 3.50 16% 5.30    
  (by CONNECT out of LAWLESS MISS by POSSE)
6  GATLINBURG         (asmussen stev)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of MY SUGAR BEAR by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
SCR  MIDNIGHT PRANKS Jan21 Dec16 Nov26 Oct30   (calhoun william )PARKER L 120 5.00 ★    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of MIDNIGHT GIRL by DROSSELMEYER)
 
FG-8   03/04/2023 5610ft TURF RC11 FIRM Black Gold Purse ($75K) 3 ALL PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RECKONING FORCE Nov04 Oct09 Sep14 Aug13 Jul23 (walsh bren)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 6.00 ★    
  (by AIR FORCE BLUE out of ALASEMA by JAZIL)
2  TAPIO (IRE) Jun24         (stidham mic)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
  (by BLAME out of QUEENS PLAZA by FORESTRY)
3  WONDERFUL JUSTICE (GB) Feb03         (cox brad )HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 19% 4.30    
  (by JUSTIFY out of I'M WONDERFUL by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
4  MAZING MARK Jan28 Dec26 Nov12 Oct20 Sep10 (briley lonnie)VARGAS P 118 8.00    
  (by MO TOWN out of MOON MEETING TOO by MALIBU MOON)
5  ANDTHEWINNERIS Jan28 Dec26 Nov04 Oct09 Aug31 (catalano wayne )LANERIE J 122 2.50 38% 1.60    
  (by OSCAR PERFORMANCE out of RUN LIKE THE BOSS by SCAT DADDY)
6  LORD DONEGAL Oct18 Aug18       (cox brad )PEDROZA MARCELINO 118 6.00 12% 7.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION out of CLEVER RUN by SMART STRIKE)
7  WINTERS LION Jan28 Dec10 Nov16 Nov03 Sep21 (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 4.50 7% 13.40    
  (by ACCELERATE out of THIS GIRL ROCKS by TACTICAL CAT)
8  MYREDWHITEANDBLUE Jan06 Nov18 Sep10     (roussel j)GRAHAM J 118 6.00    
  (by VIOLENCE out of PARTISAN POLITICS by MORE THAN READY)
SCR  DESERT DUKE Feb25 Feb03 Jan06 Dec16   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 6.00    
  (by KITTEN'S JOY out of DESERT DUCHESS by HARD SPUN)
 
FG-9   03/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($18K) 4UP ALL PT- 6:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG BELLA BROWN Feb02 Dec23 Dec02 Nov09 Oct04 (foley greg)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 3.00 32% 2.10    
2  SECRET VISTA Feb09 Jan15 Dec10 Feb28 Jan28 (jeanson)RODRIGUEZ LUIS 121 2.50 39% 1.60    
3  AFLEET ASCENT Jan13 Dec02 Sep20 Jul27 Jun29 (schwandt e)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00 6% 14.40    
4  STEAL IT BACK Feb21 Jan29 Jan06 Dec08 Mar11 (west g)GRAHAM J 121 8.00    
5  MR. PRIORITY Feb21 Jan12 Dec19 Dec09 Nov22 (husak ga)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 121 8.00    
SCR  LT. BONURA Feb02 Jan12 Dec19 Jul24 Jun11 (faucheux r)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 5.00 ★    
7  RIFLE MAN Feb23 Dec03 Nov05 Jul08 Apr28 (degeyter ran)NIEVES EMANUEL 119 15.00 ★    
8  IZZY'S BABY BOY Feb21 Jan29 Nov24 Mar05 Feb05 (gelner scott)MCMAHON J 121 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.