Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Mahoning Valley
Thursday - January 12, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MVR-1   WIN (6/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (6/4)-(6/4/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4)-(6/4/7/3)-(6/4/7/3) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (6/4)-(2/4/5/7/6) 10 $1.00 $10.00 
    PK3 (6/4)-(2/4/5/7/6)-(1/3/4/6) 40 $0.50 $20.00 
MVR-2   WIN (2/4/5/7/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (2/4/5/7/6)-(2/4/5/7/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (2/4/5/7/6)-(2/4/5/7/6)-(2/4/5/7/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (2/4/5/7/6)-(1/3/4/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (2/4/5/7/6)-(1/3/4/6)-(5/6/2/4/1) 100 $0.50 $50.00 
MVR-3   WIN (1/3/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/4/6)-(1/3/4/6/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/3/4/6)-(1/3/4/6/5)-(1/3/4/6/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/3/4/6)-(5/6/2/4/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/3/4/6)-(5/6/2/4/1)-(2/5/4/10) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-4   WIN (5/6/2/4/1) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (5/6/2/4/1)-(5/6/2/4/1) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (5/6/2/4/1)-(5/6/2/4/1)-(5/6/2/4/1) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (5/6/2/4/1)-(2/5/4/10) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (5/6/2/4/1)-(2/5/4/10)-(6/3/5/7) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
MVR-5   WIN (2/5/4/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/4/10)-(2/5/4/10/3) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (2/5/4/10)-(2/5/4/10/3)-(2/5/4/10/3) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (2/5/4/10)-(6/3/5/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/5/4/10)-(6/3/5/7)-(5/4) 32 $0.50 $16.00 
MVR-6   WIN (6/3/5/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/5/7)-(6/3/5/7/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (6/3/5/7)-(6/3/5/7/2)-(6/3/5/7/2) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (6/3/5/7)-(5/4) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (6/3/5/7)-(5/4)-(1/4) 16 $0.50 $8.00 
MVR-7   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4/6/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4)-(5/4/6/8)-(5/4/6/8) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
    DD (5/4)-(1/4) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
MVR-8   WIN (1/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/4)-(4/2/7/8) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4)-(4/2/7/8)-(4/2/7/8) 12 $0.50 $6.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MVR-1   01/12/2023 5490ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($24.3K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IMA SURE BET Dec21 Dec05 Nov16 Oct25 Oct10 (tumblin andrew)AVILES YAN 121 15.00    
  (by STREET STRATEGY out of SURE FOOT SUE by BRAHMS)
SCR  GRAY FROST Dec03 Nov02 Oct01 Aug14   (reed r)GONZALEZ ALEX 118 1.00 ★    
  (by FROSTED out of SPLENDID SOUND by TRIPPI)
3  ASHWICKEN Dec21 Dec05 Nov04 Oct20 Oct07 (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 126 4.00 ★    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of WARM FRONT by WAR FRONT)
4  HOT AS BLUE BLAZES Dec21 Nov29 Oct24 Sep19 Jul27 (johnson jenn)GONZALEZ KEVIN 126 8.00 12% 7.30    
  (by NYQUIST out of MIRACLE HEAT by UNUSUAL HEAT)
5  LITTLE FOUR Dec28 Dec11 Nov21 Nov04 Oct15 (fiesman r)CORREA L 126 20.00    
  (by FORTY TALES out of CLEVER ME by CLEVER TRICK)
6  DONNARUMMA Dec21 Nov28 Nov07 Oct10 Sep05 (buttigieg ke)KEISER CHELSEY 126 3.00 52% 0.90    
  (by VIOLENCE out of BUBBLES AND BABIES by A.P. INDY)
7  ICY RAIN Dec11 Nov09 Sep14 Aug15 May31 (ratliff gobel)YARANGA Y 126 12.00 ★    
  (by UNKNOWN out of THMORUPLATHLESUPAY by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
 
MVR-2   01/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($10.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPYENTIST Nov21 Oct03 Sep11 Sep03   (pappada a)DIAZ R 118 10.00    
2  I MATTER Dec28 Nov23 Oct27 Sep19 Aug23 (gorham robert)BRACHO A 126 3.00 35% 1.90    
3  DANCING FOR MONEY Dec28 Dec09 Nov11     (sullivan elliot)REYES FRANK 126 4.00    
4  IRON BERTIE Dec11 Nov25 Oct29 Oct15 Sep15 (fiesman l)AVILES YAN 121 6.00 14% 6.10    
5  MARIMBA Dec28 Nov16 Nov04 Oct18 Oct01 (bernardini ja)CEDILLO MAURO 121 3.50 13% 6.70    
6  PACKIN Dec28 Nov16 Nov01 Oct11 Sep25 (norris steph)GONZALEZ KEVIN 126 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  PRINCESS SOLITAIRE Dec28 Dec05 Oct04 Sep06 Aug16 (buttig)BATISTA ALBERTO 126 2.50 11% 8.40    
 
MVR-3   01/12/2023 5490ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($15.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:41
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOOD ALTERNATIVE Jan02 Dec07 Nov14 Nov01 Oct13 (bird danny)CEDILLO MAURO 119 1.60 30% 2.30    
1A  GOLDEN TEMPLE Dec27 Dec08 Nov01 Oct10 Oct02 (bird danny)HOUGHTON D 124 1.60    
2  NINJA KITTEN Dec29 Dec13 Nov22 Nov10 Nov02 (lopez carlos)TAPARA BRANDON 126 8.00    
3  ROAD TEST Dec27 Dec08 Nov01 Oct04 Aug04 (smith lar)HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 124 3.50 19% 4.30    
4  FASHION FRAME Nov22 Oct30 Oct23 Oct12 Oct02 (galloway )CORREA L 124 4.50 16% 5.10    
5  PETTIGO GIRL Dec27 Dec11 Dec02 Nov10 Oct12 (rivera nestor)DIAZ I 124 5.00 ★    
6  WOLF EYES Dec08 Nov17 Nov01 Oct04 Sep20 (faulkner rodn)TOLEDO S 124 6.00 9% 10.10    
7  MANHATTAN LADY Dec27 Dec08 Nov01 Sep14 Aug16 (brown t)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 20.00    
 
MVR-4   01/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 SLOPPY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($31.8K) 3 ALL PT- 2:09
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WHY KENNY WHY         (crumley jevon)HOUGHTON D 122 15.00 7% 12.90    
  (by GLOBAL POWER out of WHY US by WHYWHYWHY)
2  OHIO RIVER Dec29         (radosevich je)BRACHO A 122 2.00 12% 7.10    
  (by RIVERS RUN DEEP out of DOLL DREAMS by HENNY HUGHES)
3  PEDAL TO DA KETTLE Dec29 Dec14 Nov30     (schuste)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 122 10.00    
  (by KETTLE CORN out of HERONETTA by MARCHFIELD)
4  IPPOLITO'S WONDER Dec30 Dec14 Aug02     (ca)SALAZAR FERNANDO 122 2.50 11% 8.00    
  (by COWTOWN CAT out of WHY WONDER by STEVIE WONDERBOY)
5  SMOOCHER Nov30 Oct29 Oct11 Sep22   (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 122 5.00 31% 2.20    
  (by CITY WEEKEND out of KISSY SUZUKI by SUMMER BIRD)
6  JOHN'S WILD RIVER Dec29 Dec14 Nov30 Nov14 Oct29 (smith lar)HERNANDEZ LUCIANO 122 3.00 18% 4.60    
  (by RIVERS RUN DEEP out of MARCASITE by WILD ZONE)
7  NEW YORK MIRACLE Dec29 Dec14 Nov30     (zielinski richa)BIRT BRAXON 122 15.00    
  (by MAKE MUSIC FOR ME out of NEW YORK GEM by BLUEGRASS CAT)
 
MVR-5   01/12/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 SLOPPY Allowance Purse ($33.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  LIL RICKYS JEWEL Dec14 Nov15 Jun01 May21 Apr15 (cline c)HOUGHTON D 124 5.00    
2  LITTLE RONS ROCKET Dec30 Nov14 Oct29 Oct11 Sep22 (radosevich ja)BRACHO A 116 4.50 47% 1.10    
3  MUCH TIMES TWO Dec14 Nov30 Sep12 Aug08 Jul21 (bernardini ja)GONZALEZ ALEX 124 4.00 ★    
4  TWINSPIREDJOEY Dec14 Nov30 Oct31 Oct05 Sep19 (urieta johanna)DIAZ I 124 6.00 6% 16.20    
5  MARVIN'S EXPRESS Nov30 Oct31 Sep28 Sep12 Aug12 (tooley jennifer)AVILES YAN 119 3.00 20% 4.10    
6  JUST INSPIRED Dec14 Nov30 Nov09 Oct26 Oct14 (doering mark)CEDILLO MAURO 119 20.00    
7  SWEET JILL'S JACK Dec14 Oct24 Sep29 Sep05 Jul20 (campbell anthony)CCAMAQUE M 124 20.00    
8  THE GOSPEL OF MARK Dec14 Nov14 Oct31 Sep28 Sep05 (vazquez ivan)KEISER CHELSEY 124 8.00    
9  RED HEAD KID Dec22 Dec07       (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 126 10.00    
10  GOING PRIMETIME Dec14 Dec06 Nov30 Nov14 Oct13 (rivera)BATISTA ALBERTO 124 20.00 5% 17.90    
 
MVR-6   01/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.1K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SUNNY BEAST Jan02 Dec13 Nov10 Sep26 Sep08 (johnson gary )CEDILLO MAURO 119 8.00    
2  COAL TOWN ROAD Dec30 Dec16 Nov20 Oct23 Sep03 (meraz )BATISTA ALBERTO 126 3.00 ★    
3  JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT Jan02 Dec13 Nov30 Nov17 Nov07 (zook w)BRACHO A 124 4.50 19% 4.30    
SCR  THE EQUINEST Dec20 Dec13 Nov17 Sep11 Aug22 (brown glenro)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 15.00    
5  EL SICARIO Aug29         (sondej amy)TAPARA BRANDON 124 10.00 11% 8.00    
6  INGERSOLL Dec02 Nov17 Oct19 Sep21 Aug18 (west aa)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 124 1.60 44% 1.30    
7  GOLDEN OAK Dec14 Dec06 Nov28 Nov13 Nov02 (fi)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
8  TWICE AS SMART Jan02 Dec13 Oct28 Oct15 Oct07 (zielinski r)SEVERINO VICTOR 124 6.00    
 
MVR-7   01/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 SLOPPY Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRYTON'S D J Dec12 Nov27 Nov01 Sep28 Sep06 (gerich frank)GONZALEZ KEVIN 124 20.00    
2  THEDUKE OF HAZZARD Dec28 Dec13 Nov21 Jun30 May26 (sc)SALAZAR FERNANDO 124 20.00    
SCR  LILY'S TRUMPET Nov23 Oct31 Sep28 Jul14 Jul07 (reed r)GONZALEZ ALEX 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  A LATE ONE Dec01 Oct30 Oct02 Sep08 Aug15 (matejka pavel)YARANGA Y 124 4.00 5% 19.00    
5  PERFECT PICTURE Dec28 Dec02 Nov06 Oct07 Sep10 (radosevich je)BARBARAN ERIK 124 3.00 65% 0.50    
6  BEYOND MY DREAMS Dec09 Oct27 Oct09 Aug26 Jul10 (robillard jul)CEDILLO MAURO 119 10.00 ★    
7  CALL PAPA Dec13 Nov21 Nov10 Oct26 Oct04 (cline robert)TAPARA BRANDON 124 8.00    
8  CUGINE Nov21 Nov08 Oct25 Oct12 Oct04 (casa)SALAZAR VICTOR 124 4.50 ★    
9  BOURBON TEDDY Dec10 Nov12 Oct28 Jul16 May28 (reyes martin)VIGIL NOEL 124 5.00    
10  GET ALONG Jan02 Dec13 Nov10 Oct10 Sep28 (barnes ba)HOLLINGSWORTH L 124 20.00    
 
MVR-8   01/12/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 SLOPPY Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($10.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BENEVOLENT AUSTIN May28 Mar25 Mar16     (west aa)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 126 3.00 51% 1.00    
SCR  TACOMA AUSTIN         (west aa)RODRIGUEZ GUILLERMO 118 3.00 ★    
2  PAPER FLOWERS Dec14 Apr04 Mar09 Jan04   (trevino ste)SEVERINO VICTOR 126 4.50 ★    
3  OLD MAN MAC Dec28 Dec14 Nov22 Nov06 Oct23 (morales m)CCAMAQUE M 126 15.00    
4  MY TWO AUNT JOANS Dec19 Nov17 Nov02 Oct10 Aug17 (hamm timothy)REYES FRANK 126 3.50 25% 3.00    
5  AWESOME BREAK Dec28 Dec14 Nov08 May31 Apr28 (bird danny)DIAZ I 126 6.00    
6  PERFECT SPLIT Jan02 Dec05 Nov09 Oct31 Sep28 (spiess m)YARANGA Y 126 15.00    
7  MR. LUCKY Dec19 Nov29 Nov14 Oct31 Oct09 (flores chris)GONZALEZ KEVIN 126 20.00 ★    
8  RESERVATION Dec28 Dec14 Dec06 Nov17 Nov02 (urieta johann)BRACHO A 126 8.00 ★    
9  BUILT LIKE TARZAN Dec06 Nov23 Nov08 Oct27 Oct14 (casa)SALAZAR VICTOR 126 20.00    
10  COPPER HARBOR Nov23 Nov02 Oct13 Sep09 Aug03 (gorham robert)BARBARAN ERIK 126 5.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.