Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - November 06, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (1/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/2)-(1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/5/2)-(6/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/5/2)-(6/2/3)-(2/3/6/4) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-2   WIN (6/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/2/3)-(6/2/3)-(6/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/2/3)-(2/3/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (6/2/3)-(2/3/6/4)-(10/4/1/6) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
CD-3   WIN (2/3/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/3/6/4)-(2/3/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/3/6/4)-(2/3/6/4)-(2/3/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/3/6/4)-(10/4/1/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (2/3/6/4)-(10/4/1/6)-(1/8/2/6) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-4   WIN (10/4/1/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (10/4/1/6)-(10/4/1/6/7) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (10/4/1/6)-(10/4/1/6/7)-(10/4/1/6/7) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (10/4/1/6)-(1/8/2/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (10/4/1/6)-(1/8/2/6)-(10/7/5/8/4) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-5   WIN (1/8/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/8/2/6)-(1/8/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/8/2/6)-(1/8/2/6)-(1/8/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/8/2/6)-(10/7/5/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/8/2/6)-(10/7/5/8/4)-(13/11/2/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-6   WIN (10/7/5/8/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (10/7/5/8/4)-(10/7/5/8/4) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (10/7/5/8/4)-(10/7/5/8/4)-(10/7/5/8/4) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (10/7/5/8/4)-(13/11/2/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (10/7/5/8/4)-(13/11/2/5)-(1/3/5/6) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-7   WIN (13/11/2/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (13/11/2/5)-(13/11/2/1/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (13/11/2/5)-(13/11/2/1/5)-(13/11/2/1/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (13/11/2/5)-(1/3/5/6) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (13/11/2/5)-(1/3/5/6)-(4/8/5/11/9) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-8   WIN (1/3/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/3/5/6)-(1/3/5/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/3/5/6)-(1/3/5/6)-(1/3/5/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/3/5/6)-(4/8/5/11/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CD-9   WIN (4/8/5/11/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/8/5/11/9)-(4/8/5/11/9) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/8/5/11/9)-(4/8/5/11/9)-(4/8/5/11/9) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   11/06/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($63K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BARRICADE Sep25 Aug31 Jul29 Jun07 Apr07 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.20 65% 0.50    
2  BATTER UP Oct08 Sep13 Aug24 Jul15 Jun20 (troiani nicco)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  CONQUERING CAT Sep19 Jul27 Jun26 May26 May09 (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50    
4  RIGHT ON RIGHT ON Oct10 Sep21 Aug07 Jul04 Jun11 (amoss m)ORTIZ L 118 3.00    
5  MINTASTIC Sep12 Jul06 Jun22 May24 May04 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-2   11/06/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CALISUE Oct25 Aug02 Jun29 May10 Apr19 (campbell )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00    
2  PRINCESS KALAMOH Sep19 May26 May05 Apr17 Jan26 (matthews randy)MACHADO LUAN 121 2.00 26% 2.80    
3  MINNESOTA MUNNY Oct01 Sep03 Aug21 Aug01 Jun23 (danner kelsey)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00 10% 9.10    
4  MIRANDA'S ROCKY Oct02 Jul17 Jun24 May22 May03 (cline c)SAEZ GABRIEL 121 3.00    
5  CRUSHED ICE Oct12 Sep06 Jul28 Jun27 Jun11 (quartarol)LEPAROUX R 121 5.00    
6  MILA JUNES Sep25 Aug28 Jul11 Jun07 Apr17 (west w)TORRES A 121 3.50 33% 2.00    
 
CD-3   11/06/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HAMPTON'S AFFAIR Oct17         (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 4.00    
2  MERRY MADISON Oct04 Aug31 Aug05 Jun29 May31 (bauer philip )ORTIZ JR 122 2.50 35% 1.80    
3  MIMI'S GRACE Sep19 Aug30 Dec29 Dec06 Nov08 (shirer a)SAEZ LUIS 122 3.00 20% 4.00    
4  RISKY WAVE Sep25 Aug31 Jul14 Jun03 Nov08 (arnold ge)TORRES A 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  CHASING GLORY Nov28         (mott riley)TORRES A 122 8.00    
6  BABY AVERY Dec22 Nov14 Sep29 Jul13 Jun20 (vance tho)BEALMEAR C 124 5.00 13% 6.80    
7  BEA TRIX May10 Apr12 Mar09     (wilkes r)MACHADO LUAN 122 10.00    
 
CD-4   11/06/2025 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MINE OWN STAR Sep17 Aug20 Aug08 Jul10 Jun16 (elliott michel)ROMAN A 120 12.00 15% 5.60    
2  STOMPING HOTROD Oct02 Aug22 Jan31 Jan17 Dec07 (wiggins lon)ELLIOTT JANE 120 30.00    
3  KUNSHAN BRIDGE Oct10 Sep24 Aug19 Jul06 Jun14 (heath des)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 12.00    
4  SHIPMAN Sep26 Aug09 Jul17 Jun28 Jun06 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 16% 5.10    
5  W W CRAZY Sep24 Sep12 Aug22 Jul13 Jun05 (calhoun william)LANERIE J 120 20.00    
6  XANDER Jul10 May25 May05 Mar06 Feb05 (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  HIGH STRIKE Aug16 Jul19 Jun15 Mar13 Mar06 (west aaron )CONCEPCION AXEL 120 10.00 ★    
SCR  READY PURSUIT Oct06 Aug28 Aug13 Jul16 Jun15 (gonzalez rein)TREJOS JOSEPH 120 30.00    
9  IMPROBABLE STORY Oct02 Aug29 Aug20 Jul11 Jul01 (king l)ASHTON GAVIN 120 30.00    
10  BLOODLINE Oct07 Aug09 Jul09 Jan18 Dec28 (canani nick)BOCACHICA O 120 4.00 39% 1.60    
11  PRINCIP Oct15 Sep27 Jun21 May31 Mar14 (kantarmaci m)TORRES A 120 5.00    
SCR  SALTWATER COWBOY Sep17 May26 Apr25 Mar16 Feb17 (ortiz )GRISALES DANILO 120 3.50    
 
CD-5   11/06/2025 5610ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 2:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TAM TAM Oct15 Aug23       (bauer a)ORTIZ L 119 2.50 31% 2.30    
  (by MEDAGLIA D'ORO out of PRINCESS JULIA by DISTORTED HUMOR)
2  HONFLEUR Sep25         (brown chad)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 14% 6.10    
  (by OMAHA BEACH out of COWORTH PARK by LEA)
3  MAXIMUM OFFER Oct18         (mcpeek ke)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 119 8.00    
  (by MAXFIELD out of NO BETTER TERMS by PURE PRIZE)
4  ELEGANT MISS         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00    
  (by FOREST CAMP out of KEEP THE PEACE by TOUCH GOLD)
5  INKLING (AUS) Oct03         (harty eoi)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 12.00    
  (by DUPORTH out of TARCOOLA DIAMOND by LAST TYCOON (IRE))
6  HOLLY'S HOLIDAY Oct15         (mcpeek g)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MAXFIELD out of BLAST by ROAR)
7  MEASURE Oct09 Sep11       (casse mark)ORTIZ JR 119 4.50    
  (by ESSENTIAL QUALITY out of FATEER by ESKENDEREYA)
8  ROCKIN ROBIN Oct15 Sep10       (casse mark)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 5.00 29% 2.40    
  (by ROCK HARD TEN out of TU TU LARUE by THEATRICAL (IRE))
 
CD-6   11/06/2025 3300ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUNRATTY MANOR (IRE) Aug28 May10 Mar29 Mar09 Jan16 (arnold ge)TORRES A 118 3.50    
2  SHE'Z THE LAW Oct15 Aug09 Jul14 Jun08 May18 (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 4.50    
3  PARTY PAULINE Sep24 Aug09 May30 May15   (hartman chris)BACON W 120 20.00    
4  MILA CANDY Sep24 Aug30 Jul19 Jun08 May09 (kantarmaci mertka)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  SAPHIRA Oct13         (mott riley)TORRES A 120 5.00 8% 11.00    
6  SARISSA Oct07 Sep12 Sep02 Aug14 Jun27 (sandy steph)PETERSON FERRIN 120 30.00    
7  LAURICE Oct15 Sep07 Aug07 Jul11 May10 (weaver george)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00 11% 8.40    
8  FLIRTING WITH TIME Mar21 Oct06 Aug29 Aug08 Jul18 (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SHIRLEY ANN Oct28 Sep29 Aug25 Jul22   (vesty clarke)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 30.00    
10  LOST AND FOUND Oct15 Sep02 Aug02 Jun28 Dec28 (walden will)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 3.00 58% 0.70    
11  MALIBU MUSE Oct13 Sep14 Aug07 Jul17   (mott riley)TORRES A 118 10.00    
 
CD-7   11/06/2025 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VOLATILE MARKET Sep13 Aug15 Jul20 Jun25 Sep16 (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 ★    
2  SWEET NOTE Sep24 Aug16 Jun18 May22 Mar07 (habeeb donald)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 22% 3.50    
3  CHANDON Sep26 Aug02 Jul05 Jun25 Jun12 (barker w)MCKEE J 118 15.00    
4  MOMBAYLA Sep26 Sep14 Aug16 Jul19 Jun20 (crichton ro)GUTIERREZ MARIO 120 15.00    
5  HAND IT OVER Oct09 Sep12 Jul21 Jun19 Apr29 (walsh rya)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  BRIGHT LADY DAY Oct17 Sep24 Sep08 Aug01 Jul04 (jackson christ)ELLIOTT JANE 120 30.00    
SCR  VANISHED Sep04 Jul16 Apr09 Feb12 Jan17 (cowans william)ORTIZ L 120 3.50    
8  ROYALEWITHCHEESE Oct14 Sep14 Aug09 Jul12 Jun19 (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
9  AHAMO Sep21 Aug09 Jul14 Apr18 Feb23 (calhoun willia)MACHADO LUAN 118 5.00    
10  FANCY FASCINATOR Oct09 Sep17 Aug16 Jul09 Oct31 (moge)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 10.00    
11  MISTY MUPPET Oct17 Sep17 Aug16 Jul06 Jun08 (santamaria ca)ORTIZ JR 120 4.50 26% 2.80    
12  MISS TIFEYE Oct15 Sep24 Nov28 Oct31 Oct09 (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00    
13  SHOWERS Oct12 Sep05 Oct05 Aug25 Aug10 (meah m)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.00 29% 2.40    
SCR  WELL AWARE Oct19 Sep21 Aug23 Apr29 Mar26 (hartman ch)ASMUSSEN J 120 10.00    
SCR  BIRTHDAY GIRL Feb06 Jan20 Jan01 Aug10   (danner kels)CONCEPCION AXEL 118 12.00    
 
CD-8   11/06/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARRODSBURG Oct12 Sep12 Jun13 May23 Apr12 (tomlinson mi)TORRES A 120 2.00 35% 1.80    
2  HAPPY AMERICAN May01 Apr12 Feb13 Jan18 Dec21 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 120 5.00    
3  BILLAL Jan26 Nov03 Sep18 Aug04 Jul06 (mott willi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 30% 2.30    
4  SPANKSTER Oct15 Mar21 Feb08 Dec27 Nov16 (cunningha)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 20.00    
5  ALDER Oct04 Aug31 Jul05 May25 May04 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 122 3.00 12% 7.10    
6  LOFTY ADJUDICATOR Oct12 Sep11 Aug31 Jul16 Jun10 (navarret)RODRIGUEZ A 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
7  BANGO May01 Dec01 Nov02 Sep27 Jun29 (foley greg)SAEZ LUIS 120 4.00    
 
CD-9   11/06/2025 5280ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($32K) Purse ($71K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRACELEADSUSHOME Sep15 Jul16 Jul09 May26 May13 (reed r)MCKEE J 121 30.00    
2  WINDY BAY Oct09 Aug06 Jul05 Jun13 Oct26 (van th)CONCEPCION AXEL 121 12.00    
3  LOVE HER LOTS Apr17 Mar22 Feb12 Jan22 Dec15 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00    
4  MORNING MIRACLE Oct02 Sep05 Aug15 Jul23 Jun27 (blair jordan)TORRES A 121 4.00 45% 1.20    
5  MISSY BEE Oct15 Sep06 Aug04 Jul04 May17 (foster eric)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 4.50 12% 7.00    
6  HONEY HAULER Sep17 Jun19 May08 Feb12 Jul28 (wismer gl)CAMACHO JR 121 10.00    
7  LADY BLAKE Oct09 Sep14 Aug16 Jul03 May29 (baker ja)RODRIGUEZ A 118 10.00    
8  STEAMPUNK Oct08 Sep06 Jun22 Jun05 May22 (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 15% 5.60    
9  SPOTTY SHOWERS Sep04 Aug22 Jul14 Jun14 May27 (lauer michael)MORALES EDGAR 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  MOLLY'S ROSE Oct14 Sep05 Aug01 Jun22 Feb05 (riefenberg eri)DOYLE SOPHIE 121 20.00    
11  BRITTANYSGLDNFAITH Oct08 Sep10 Aug20 Jul01 Jun04 (dobbsjr r)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.