Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Wednesday - September 17, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
CD-1   WIN (7/3/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/8/6)-(7/3/8/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/3/8/6)-(7/3/8/6)-(7/3/8/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/3/8/6)-(8/4/7/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/3/8/6)-(8/4/7/5)-(1/9/8/2) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CD-2   WIN (8/4/7/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (8/4/7/5)-(8/4/7/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (8/4/7/5)-(8/4/7/5)-(8/4/7/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (8/4/7/5)-(1/9/8/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (8/4/7/5)-(1/9/8/2)-(7/8/10/9/2) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-3   WIN (1/9/8/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/9/8/2)-(1/9/8/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/9/8/2)-(1/9/8/2)-(1/9/8/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/9/8/2)-(7/8/10/9/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (1/9/8/2)-(7/8/10/9/2)-(4/3/9/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CD-4   WIN (7/8/10/9/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/8/10/9/2)-(7/8/10/9/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/8/10/9/2)-(7/8/10/9/2)-(7/8/10/9/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (7/8/10/9/2)-(4/3/9/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (7/8/10/9/2)-(4/3/9/5)-(4/7) 40 $1.00 $40.00 
CD-5   WIN (4/3/9/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/9/5)-(4/3/9/11/5/7) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/3/9/5)-(4/3/9/11/5/7)-(4/3/9/11/5/7) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
    DD (4/3/9/5)-(4/7) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/3/9/5)-(4/7)-(1/11/6/12) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
CD-6   WIN (4/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/7)-(4/7) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    DD (4/7)-(1/11/6/12) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (4/7)-(1/11/6/12)-(9/11/10) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
CD-7   WIN (1/11/6/12) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/11/6/12)-(1/11/10/6/12) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (1/11/6/12)-(1/11/10/6/12)-(1/11/10/6/12) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (1/11/6/12)-(9/11/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/11/6/12)-(9/11/10)-(2/6/5) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
CD-8   WIN (9/11/10) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (9/11/10)-(9/11/4/3/10) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (9/11/10)-(9/11/4/3/10)-(9/11/4/3/10) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
    DD (9/11/10)-(2/6/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
CD-9   WIN (2/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/6/5)-(2/1/8/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/6/5)-(2/1/8/6/5)-(2/1/8/6/5) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   09/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAYTOWN BUTTERFLY Aug19 Jul25 Jun21 Jun01 May02 (mcentee paul)BOCACHICA O 118 12.00    
2  FANCY FASCINATOR Aug16 Jul09 Oct31 Sep27 Jul28 (moge)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 121 6.00    
3  MUSICAL PRAYER Aug16 Aug04 Apr04 Mar07 Feb03 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 4.00 20% 4.00    
4  MINK STOLE Aug17 Jul04 May26 May11 Apr11 (martinez ral)TORRES A 121 6.00    
5  STREAKING Jul15 Jan17 Nov07 Sep21 Aug17 (garcia genaro)CEDILLO ABEL 118 10.00    
6  ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY Aug11 Jul21 Jun26 Jun13 Apr28 (jacobson david)SAEZ LUIS 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  BROOKLYNN DREW Aug16 Jul19 Jun18 May17 Apr19 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 35% 1.90    
8  MISTY MUPPET Aug16 Jul06 Jun08 May25 May10 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 3.00 19% 4.30    
 
CD-2   09/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($12.5K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BUSK Aug21 Jul19 Jun18 May25 May05 (chavez manue)BARBOSA CARLOS 123 1.00    
SCR  MISTER KELLY Jul20 Jul03 Jun18 May25 May06 (winebaugh che)HERNANDEZ K 121 20.00    
SCR  SERGEANT GUMP Aug28 Aug15 Feb05 Jan17 Dec20 (decker a)RODRIGUEZ A 123 30.00    
4  TURN UP THE TREES Aug09 Jul14 Jun18 May16 May06 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50 24% 3.20    
5  MINE OWN STAR Aug20 Aug08 Jul10 Jun16 May27 (elliott michel)ROMAN A 121 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  READY TO ROLL (IRE) Aug23 May16 Mar13 Feb07 Jan24 (van thom)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00    
SCR  SPYCRAFT Aug05 Jul19 Jul01 Jun05 May17 (manley steve)CEDILLO ABEL 121 10.00 16% 5.40    
8  SHAPE NOTE Aug02 Jul06 Jun18 May17 Apr12 (maker mich)HERNANDEZ J 121 3.00 27% 2.70    
 
CD-3   09/17/2025 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($57K) 2 ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FEDERAL AGENT Aug19 Jul19       (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 3.00 29% 2.50    
2  STOLEN POWER Sep03         (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  CONSEQUENTIAL Aug09         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00    
4  COURT OF APPEAL Aug27         (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00    
5  TINGUS PINGUS Aug09         (maker j)JUAREZ NIK 119 3.50    
SCR  TRAPPED IN TIME (IRE) Aug14         (mcpeek ke)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.00    
7  COSMIC COLLISSION Aug17         (cash norman)GUTIERREZ MARIO 119 20.00    
8  BAGG O TIME Jul19 Jun28       (vance d)LANERIE J 119 12.00 15% 5.90    
9  OFF THE DECK         (casse w)ORTIZ L 119 10.00 15% 5.70    
 
CD-4   09/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  COOL RAGS Aug01 Jun26 Jun13 May31 May15 (salas marc)ANDERSON MCKENNA 122 30.00    
2  ALEJANDRO Aug23 Jul20 Jul06 Jun06 Jun17 (cash l)MORALES EDGAR 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
3  THE THUNDERER Aug01 Jun22 May26 Apr13 Mar08 (hiles rick)GUTIERREZ MARIO 122 15.00    
4  MASTER GAME Aug21 Aug01 Jun05 May09 Mar16 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00    
5  TEXAS RED HOT Aug01 Jun26 Jun06 Jun15 May18 (morse l)ORTIZ L 122 6.00    
SCR  SYNTHESIS Sep11 Apr04 Mar08 Jan23 Jan04 (jacobson davi)ORTIZ JR 122 5.00    
7  SLIP MAHONEY Jun08 May18 Apr16 Aug04 Jul07 (kantarmaci m)TORRES A 122 6.00 27% 2.70    
8  SALTWATER COWBOY May26 Apr25 Mar16 Feb17 Jan20 (diodoro r)TORRES A 122 3.50 24% 3.10    
9  WINSTON WOLF Aug16 Jun25 Jun06 May23 Apr13 (von donn)CEDILLO ABEL 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
10  CRITICAL THREAT Aug08 Jul13 Jun15 May10 Apr12 (esquivel jes)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 10.00 12% 7.30    
11  SIR SAFFER Aug28 May02 Apr06 Mar12 Jan31 (wittek karyn)ACHARD ALEX 122 4.50    
 
CD-5   09/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SCOT'S LAW         (ortiz al)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of BODEBABE by BODEMEISTER)
2  SACRED PRAYER         (moquett ronal)ORTIZ JR 119 10.00    
  (by YAUPON out of PINKABOO by BERNARDINI)
3  NOROOMFORMISCHIEF Aug17         (ennis john)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 29% 2.40    
  (by MAXIMUS MISCHIEF out of NO VACANCY by QUALITY ROAD)
4  FADE TO GOLD Aug23         (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.00 41% 1.40    
  (by BOLT D'ORO out of SHORT IRON by TALE OF THE CAT)
5  SUDDEN SQUALL Aug23         (west w)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by VOLATILE out of SKY GESTURE by TIZNOW)
6  CLICK Aug03         (calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 15.00    
  (by TOMAHAWK out of FANTASTIC ALLIE by GHAZI)
SCR  CREVALLA DE VIL Jul20         (casse mark)ORTIZ L 119 5.00 ★    
  (by UPSTART out of LADY STARDUST by UNION RAGS)
8  G ROCKS         (stewart d)LEPAROUX R 119 20.00    
  (by ROCK YOUR WORLD out of CIDDY'S SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
9  LISTENTOURMOTHER Aug16         (hillyard ashley)LANERIE J 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CONNECT out of PETUNIA by CHIEF SINGER)
10  TRAPPED         (forster t)GRAHAM J 119 30.00    
  (by TACITUS out of EAST COAST SWING by EXCHANGE RATE)
11  CORBET'S CRUSH Aug03         (mott riley)TORRES A 119 4.50 ★    
  (by VOLATILE out of QIAONA by WILKO)
12  LOVELY SUMMER         (esquivel jes)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
  (by UNUSUAL HEAT out of LOVELY PET by DEVIL'S BAG)
SCR  SUPERSONIC AGENDA         (bailey ricardo)HOUGHTON D 119 12.00    
  (by KNOWN AGENDA out of CONCORD ECLIPSE by TIZNOW)
SCR  JETTY'S HOME Aug21 Jul12 Jun01     (joseph saf)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.00    
  (by ENTICED out of LOVELY GIRL by BODEMEISTER)
SCR  STATUTORY         (damato philip)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00    
  (by TIZ THE LAW out of AGREEABLE MISS by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
CD-6   09/17/2025 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($83K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  UNCLE WILLIAM Aug03 Jun27 Jun08 May16 Apr17 (jacobson david)ORTIZ L 121 2.50    
2  REMI'S MOON Aug22 Jul23 Jul06 Jun04 Sep28 (jacobson dav)TORRES A 121 4.00    
SCR  NORWICH Aug16 Jun26 May17 Apr30 Feb23 (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.50    
4  MORAL Nov24 Oct27 Sep25     (o'dwyer jeremiah)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 30% 2.30    
5  RAVENS DREAM Aug01 Jul05 Jun20 Sep28 Aug24 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 118 6.00    
SCR  MAJOR DAX Oct11 Sep19       (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
7  CURLIN'S GESTURE Jun25 Jun12 May01 Apr10 Mar01 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 4.50 27% 2.70    
 
CD-7   09/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT- 3:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRAND LUXX Aug21         (walden william)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.50 62% 0.60    
  (by INSTAGRAND out of MY GIRL by IN REALITY (GB))
2  HAPPY KEIRA         (diodoro robert)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 12.00    
  (by INDEPENDENCE HALL out of OH KAY SEE by NOTIONAL)
3  MIGHTY NORA         (stewart da)ASMUSSEN J 119 20.00    
  (by GLOBAL CAMPAIGN out of BLAZEN BETSY by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
4  QUEEN OF QUEENS         (beckman d )GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 20.00    
  (by KING OF KINGS (IRE) out of NUMBERONEDANCE by TREMPOLINO)
5  BY LA RINA         (deegan joseph)CANNON DECLAN 119 20.00    
  (by ECHO TOWN out of GATEAU ST HONORE by DON GATO)
6  FREAKS GO         (crichton )TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by KNICKS GO out of STORMY SKY by SKY MESA)
SCR  STICKER SHOCKED Aug03         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
  (by AUDIBLE out of PRICE TOO HIGH by SCAT DADDY)
SCR  A P SWEETHEART Jun19 Jun06       (corrigan jim)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00    
  (by AMERICAN PHAROAH out of SORORITYSWEETHEART by DISCREETLY MINE)
9  HOOPS RIVALRY Aug07         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 119 4.50    
  (by KNICKS GO out of CELTIC CHANT by SONGANDAPRAYER)
10  IT AIN'T LIKE THAT Aug02 Jun29 May31     (esquivel jes)TORRES A 119 4.00 ★    
  (by PRESERVATIONIST out of COACH LORI by CAIRO PRINCE)
11  STELLA GUITAR Aug15         (calhoun wil)CONCEPCION AXEL 119 8.00 12% 7.50    
  (by STAR GUITAR out of PRINCESS PERFECT by CRAFTY FRIEND)
12  ENDLESS GLORY         (rice kevin)ORTIZ L 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NYQUIST out of SECRET INGREDIENT by CONGRATS)
SCR  SMOKIN HOT STUFF         (medina robert)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00    
  (by CONSTITUTION out of NAPLES MIST by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
SCR  SWAY HOUSE Aug16         (romans da)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 3.50    
  (by VOLATILE out of D'YA KNOWWHATIMEAN by BROKEN VOW)
SCR  LOLLY POPPIN Aug18 Jul26       (hartman chris)ORTIZ L 119 5.00    
  (by MUNNINGS out of APPLAUDING by CONGRATS)
 
CD-8   09/17/2025 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($76K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:19
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHIEF LADY Aug16 Aug31 Aug03 Jul13 Jun28 (asmussen s)ASMUSSEN J 121 15.00    
SCR  MAZOKU Aug24 Jul19 May22 Feb23 Feb03 (butcher )RODRIGUEZ A 121 10.00    
3  OUTRAGEOUSLY Aug21 Jul05 Jun05 Mar08 Jan05 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 ★    
4  GLORIETTE Aug28 Aug13 Jul17 May01 Apr12 (shorter aaron)ORTIZ L 121 4.50 ★    
5  HONEY HAULER Jun19 May08 Feb12 Jul28 Jul07 (wismer gl)CAMACHO JR 121 20.00    
6  PROMISES TO DANCE Aug09 Jul05 May03 Apr19 Jan17 (jacobson d)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00    
7  SHE'S NO ANGEL Aug16 Jul12 Jun15 May09 Mar21 (baker james)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00    
8  OUR LIBERTY BELLE Jul27 Jul10 May26 May02 Apr18 (sharp joe)ORTIZ JR 121 3.00    
9  DE' ANS EIGHTY Aug03 Jun18 May29 Apr23 Feb01 (diodoro r)TORRES A 121 4.00 69% 0.40    
10  PROGENY Aug17 Jun14 May15 Apr30 Mar15 (garcia genaro)CEDILLO ABEL 121 20.00 5% 19.00    
11  SASSY AND BOLD Aug21 Jul19 Jun18 May24 Apr22 (knippenberg br)MACHADO LUAN 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-9   09/17/2025 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FINE VINO         (cox h)ORTIZ JR 120 5.00 ★    
2  STEEL VENOM Aug11 Jul14 May24     (sharp joe)ORTIZ L 120 4.00 55% 0.80    
3  HELM PLACE Aug25 Jul03 Jun18 May16 Apr11 (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 6.00    
4  CINISTER CIX Aug16 Jul20 Jun21 May17 Mar08 (brisset rodolp)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.50    
5  RYU MO Sep07         (torres marceli)DOYLE SOPHIE 120 15.00 5% 19.00    
6  NO MOR STONES Aug22 Jun19       (mccarthy michael )SAEZ LUIS 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
7  SOUTHERN BULLET Aug28 Jul14 Jun15 May08   (begley greg)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 30.00    
8  HARBE Aug23 Jul20 Jun18 May03 Mar01 (crichton roh)TORRES A 120 5.00 ★    
9  PENEI Aug25 May16 May08 Sep22 Aug24 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 120 15.00    
10  SEVEN TAYLORS Aug08 Jun21 May16 Mar28 Mar09 (asmussen stev)ASMUSSEN ERIK 124 8.00    
11  RICH VINO Aug24 Aug01       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00    
12  PRIMO CANARY Mar22 Feb16 Jan17 Jan04   (hartman chris)CANNON DECLAN 120 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.